February 22, 2004

Notes: American Politics State Swing Numbers

2000 Presidential Election: Democratic Plus Green Vote Share Relative to National Average

District of Columbia 39.3%
Rhode Island 16.0%
Massachusetts 15.2%
New York 12.7%
Hawaii 10.6%
Connecticut 9.2%
Maryland 8.1%
New Jersey 8.0%
Vermont 6.5%
Delaware 6.4%
California 6.2%
Illinois 5.7%
Maine 3.7%
Washington 3.2%
Michigan 2.2%
Minnesota 2.0%
Pennsylvania 1.6%
Oregon 1.0%
New Mexico 0.3%
Wisconsin 0.3%
National Totals 0.0%
New Hampshire -0.3%
Iowa -0.3%
Florida -0.6%
Ohio -2.2%
Missouri -2.4%
Nevada -2.4%
Tennessee -2.9%
Arizona -3.4%
Colorado -3.5%
Arkansas -3.8%
West Virginia -3.9%
Virginia -4.5%
Louisiana -5.4%
Georgia -7.9%
North Carolina -8.0%
Kentucky -8.3%
Alabama -8.4%
South Carolina -8.7%
Indiana -9.3%
Mississippi -9.6%
Kansas -10.5%
Texas -11.0%
Montana -11.8%
Oklahoma -12.7%
Alaska -13.2%
South Dakota -13.5%
Nebraska -14.3%
North Dakota -14.8%
Utah -20.0%
Idaho -21.0%
Wyoming -22.8%

Posted by DeLong at February 22, 2004 01:00 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

what an odd chart. do we not want to know the break-even point, not the national average percent? In other words, by how many points in florida would dems plus greens have won?

Posted by: red on February 22, 2004 01:24 PM

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I wonder how the economies of the positive states compare with the economies of the negative ones.

Posted by: curious on February 22, 2004 01:30 PM

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As a footnote, I recently calculated the correlations (by state) of votes for BUSH in 2000 (in % of all D&R votes, Nader votes excluded) with three demographic measures: RURAL (log population density), POOR (median state income), and DUMB (a schooling proxy, % without high school minus % with college). The results were:

BUSH-RURAL: 0.77
BUSH-POOR: 0.37
BUSH-DUMB: 0.24

Compare this to a similar election 40 years prior:

NIXON-RURAL: 0.44
NIXON-POOR: -0.08
NIXON-DUMB: -0.27

and draw your own conlusions.

Posted by: ogmb on February 22, 2004 01:40 PM

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I've always wanted to visit National Tota. I hear it's a lovely place to live, and is supposed to be very pretty this time of year. Funny that it comes out dead even politically, though. Must be a very balanced sort of place.

Posted by: Gary Farber on February 22, 2004 02:00 PM

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In regard to Red's request for a more traditional chart, here's a chart that I've unfortunately had to resurrect in the past 24 hours: The Gore-Bush victory (or defeat) margin (thus negative percentages mean Bush won, positive ones mean Gore won) vs. the Nader vote in the 48 states on which Nader was on the ballot:

And for all those readers who want to stoke their Nader hate, be sure to look at the closely contested states of New Hampshire and Florida (which of course went to Bush by margins significantly less than the Nader vote) and those of New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon and Maine (which Gore won by margins significantly less than the Nader vote).

State Gore-Bush Nader
UT -40.49% 4.65%
WY -40.06% 2.12%
ID -39.53% 2.45%
NE -28.99% 3.52%
ND -27.60% 3.29%
MO -25.08% 1.63%
MT -25.08% 5.94%
TX -21.32% 2.15%
KS -20.80% 3.36%
SC -15.94% 1.46%
IN -15.64% 0.84%
KY -15.13% 1.50%
AL -14.91% 1.10%
GA -11.69% 0.52%
CO -8.36% 5.25%
VA -8.03% 2.17%
LA -7.67% 1.16%
WV -6.33% 1.65%
AZ -5.45% 2.98%
AK -5.45% 10.07%
AR -5.45% 1.46%
TN -3.87% 0.95%
NV -3.54% 2.46%
OH -3.51% 2.50%
MS -3.34% 0.82%
NH -1.27% 3.90%
FL -0.01% 1.63%
NM 0.06% 3.55%
WI 0.22% 3.62%
IA 0.32% 2.23%
OR 0.44% 5.04%
MN 2.40% 5.20%
PA 4.17% 2.10%
ME 5.12% 5.70%
MI 5.13% 1.99%
WA 5.58% 4.14%
VT 9.93% 6.92%
CA 11.80% 3.82%
IL 12.02% 2.19%
DE 13.06% 2.54%
NJ 15.83% 2.97%
MD 16.39% 2.65%
CT 17.47% 4.42%
HI 18.33% 5.88%
NY 24.98% 3.58%
MA 27.30% 6.42%
RI 29.08% 6.12%
DC 76.21% 5.24%

Posted by: Bill on February 22, 2004 02:43 PM

____

Raw data:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/

Posted by: ogmb on February 22, 2004 03:00 PM

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Oops. There's 2 errors in my post above:

1) Most notably, a typo in the entry for Missouri (MO), which you might have guessed because it's really odd to see its Gore-Bush margin was exactly the same as Bush's overwhelming margin in Montana (MT). The correct Gore-Bush margin in Missouri was just -4.37% (i.e., Bush wins by 4.37%) It's corrected below.

2) DC isn't a state. So Nader was on the ballot just in 2000 in *47* states + the District of Columbia, not *48* states. (For trivia buffs + neurotic Nader haters, the 3 states with no Nader were North Carolina, Oklahoma, and South Dakota.)

Finally, I've resorted the graph in descending order to match Brad's ordering. (My apologies that Movable type comments don't keep proper column alignment. Clearly, the first entry in each row is the postal abbreviation for the state, the 2nd entry is the Gore-Bush victory/defeat margin and the final entry is the Nader vote.

State Gore - Bush Nader
DC 76.21% 5.24%
RI 29.08% 6.12%
MA 27.30% 6.42%
NY 24.98% 3.58%
HI 18.33% 5.88%
CT 17.47% 4.42%
MD 16.39% 2.65%
NJ 15.83% 2.97%
DE 13.06% 2.54%
IL 12.02% 2.19%
CA 11.80% 3.82%
VT 9.93% 6.92%
WA 5.58% 4.14%
MI 5.13% 1.99%
ME 5.12% 5.70%
PA 4.17% 2.10%
MN 2.40% 5.20%
OR 0.44% 5.04%
IA 0.32% 2.23%
WI 0.22% 3.62%
NM 0.06% 3.55%
FL -0.01% 1.63%
NH -1.27% 3.90%
MS -3.34% 0.82%
OH -3.51% 2.50%
NV -3.54% 2.46%
TN -3.87% 0.95%
MO -4.37% 1.63%
AZ -5.45% 2.98%
AK -5.45% 10.07%
AR -5.45% 1.46%
WV -6.33% 1.65%
LA -7.67% 1.16%
VA -8.03% 2.17%
CO -8.36% 5.25%
GA -11.69% 0.52%
AL -14.91% 1.10%
KY -15.13% 1.50%
IN -15.64% 0.84%
SC -15.94% 1.46%
KS -20.80% 3.36%
TX -21.32% 2.15%
MT -25.08% 5.94%
ND -27.60% 3.29%
NE -28.99% 3.52%
ID -39.53% 2.45%
WY -40.06% 2.12%
UT -40.49% 4.65%

Posted by: Bill on February 22, 2004 03:04 PM

____

Looking at the list of states (from Brad's list) that were off 3% or less one way or another, we get:

Michigan 2.2%, Minnesota 2.0%,
Pennsylvania 1.6%, Oregon 1.0%, New Mexico 0.3%,
Wisconsin 0.3%, New Hampshire -0.3%, Iowa -0.3%,
Florida -0.6%, Ohio -2.2%, Missouri -2.4%, Nevada 2.4%, Tennessee -2.9%.

No Southern or Great Plains states on the list except Florida. Border states: Missouri, Tennessee, and Ohio. Southwestern: Nevada and New Mexico. And seven coastal or Midwestern states (and Mo. and Oh. are semi-midwestern).

A lot of the things you do to win white male votes are the same things that you would do to win Southern states, but it seems that writing off the South and most of the West is the smart thing to do. The eleven worst states are (almost all white) Western/Great Plains states; the eleven next worst states are mostly southern (black populations).

Except for N.H., the close states Bush won were Southern / Border / Western.

Posted by: zizka / John Emerson on February 22, 2004 04:22 PM

____

For playing Risk-type strategy games with electoral numbers here's a nifty little tool from John Edwards's campaign site:

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

Note that the Democrats can win the election by taking the Northeast, the Midwest and the Left Coast. No South, Plain or Mountain states needed.

Posted by: ogmb on February 22, 2004 04:44 PM

____

Except, Zizka, that a lot of the voters you would address by staying competitive in the South are in the more southern parts of the border states that you actually are trying to win. "Writing off the South" in practice means conceding large parts of Ohio and Missouri in particular, possibly Pennsylvania as well, without which winning the White House is much, much harder. "Competing in the South" means fighting like hell to win those border states whose electoral votes the Democratic nominee does in fact need.

Posted by: Doug on February 22, 2004 05:33 PM

____

You got another typo, Bill -- Bush beat Gore in Alaska by a MUCH bigger margin than 5.45%.

There is no doubt whatsoever, though, that Nader swung the 2000 race to Bush -- he definitely threw Florida to him, and probably New Hampshire as well. Indeed, my own historical survey of presidential elections -- my specialty in college -- suggests that Nader is the very FIRST third-party candidate in US history to swing a presidential election (unless you count 1860, when Lincoln won only because the Democrats split in two over slavery). For instance, despite repeated Republican complaints, Ross Perot most definitely did NOT throw either the 1992 or 1996 races to Clinton -- his voters in 1992 split pretty evenly between Bush and Clinton as their second choice, and in fact may have slightly preferred Clinton, who would thus have won with about 53% in a 2-man race.

Posted by: Bruce Moomaw on February 22, 2004 05:48 PM

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Uh- Ohio is midwest by definition and its population is concentrated in the Northern half. OH is a Midwestern, Great Lakes mfg state that has lost a lot of mfg jobs. OH will be difficult for Mr Bush to keep given the economy. It will be a huge battleground in 04.

Posted by: bakho on February 22, 2004 06:48 PM

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As I said: "A lot of the things you do to win white male votes are the same things that you would do to win Southern states". But trying to win the South, the Great Plains, or the Mountain West is not a reasonable goal.

Ohio and Indiana have a lot more white southern influence than the rest of the Midwest. That's been true for decades. Compare Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan. Illinois is a little like Ohio and Indiana, but Chicago overwhelms the downstate. Missouri is sort of Midwestern too, but everyone calls it a border state.

Posted by: zizka / John Emerson on February 22, 2004 07:03 PM

____

AND JUST WHAT IS KERRY DOING TO "EARN" HIMSELF THE GREEN & NADER VOTE?

As far as I was told by friends in California, a good many green voters were just sick of being (morally) forced to vote for any kind of a democrat just in order not to get a republican (and especially in local elections, there are lots of good reasons for voting a third party...). So people that feel that there is not much of difference between republicans and democrats (at least not as far as a number of relevant issues are concerned) can't see a good reason why they should give democrats (a priori) "the benefit of doubt".

Things might have changed after four years of Bush idiocy and irresponsibility. At least, a US Green Party spokeswoman went on record (last Friday at the Rome conference of the European Greens - and in the presence of German foreign minister Joschka Fischer, a Green himself) - as stating that the Bush "regime" (sic!) was the worst presidency Americans have had in at least the last 100 years. (So this might be why the US Greens so far have not decided to back the Nader campaign.)

But is detesting Bush, by itself, a valid reason for voting for a (any) democrat? What ist the democratic party doing, what is Kerry doing, to appeal to Green voters? What will they get in return if they decide to vote democrat (and, as far as I gather, there are states where they can loose their legal third party status if they do not have their own presidential candidate - what kind of electoral laws to you have, anyway, if a party cannot freely decide not to run candidates in a particular election and still remain a party on the ballot in other elections?).

I, personally, have been voting Green for a long time - and in my country (Austria), which has a strictly proportional electoral system, we are in the national parliament with about 10 % of the vote (just like in Germany) and we are a potential partner for a coalition government with the social democratic party as well as with the more conservative People's Party). In my home-town (Innsbruck), we are currently at 27 per cent and will seriously run for mayor in the next municipal elections. So, obviously, we do not face the dilemma US Greens are facing because of your traditional two-party-system bases on majoritarian electoral laws.

But still, if I was an American, I would ask Mr Kerry what kind of proposals he had to convince me that a vote for him is not just a way of saying, well, anything but Bush is fine...

Posted by: gerhard on February 23, 2004 03:18 AM

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I don't see what's wrong with ABB. Selecting a president isn't like deciding what to eat for dinner. Minority choices are suppressed. The choice is A or B. Greens who play hard to get are spoiled idiots.

In the US system, a third-party vote can either be a bid to replace one of the two parties, or it can send a message to one (or both) of the parties that some of their constituents are pissed off. Perot's Reform party (single-issue deficit / national debt) was a VERY effective case of the second. The only American case of the first is the Republican Party, which replaced the Whigs after winning a four-party election. (But it really took the Civil War to get the job done.)

Both valid reasons for voting third-party are based on long-term plans and really require a belief either that both existing parties are intolerably bad, or else that even the worse of the two is NOT intolerably bad. Since I believe that Bush's Republicans are intolerable and that Kerry's Democrats aren't, this year's choice is easy.

I wrongly voted for Nader in 2000 because I didn't understand Bush and because I was subliminally influenced by the lying media buzz, which was overwhelmingly anti-Gore.

Posted by: zizka / John Emerson on February 23, 2004 07:09 AM

____

Gerhard-

One look at Kerry's League of Conservation Voters record will show you why any truly green voter should vote for him. There is absolutely no point in refighting the realist-vs-fundamentalist fights that the German Green party has been through. Kerry is good for the environment. If you really want to do something good for the environment, vote for Kerry. (And, lets face it, Nader never was Green and he isn't even on the Green party ticket this year)
In fact, if the Green party wants to remain relevant, they might well consider putting Kerry on their line.

Mecki

Posted by: mecki on February 23, 2004 11:41 AM

____

Mecki,
I can't see what the fundamentalist vs. realist issue has got to do with voting or not for Kerry. (Thank you though for directing me to Kerry's conservationist record. The question who to vote for, anyway, is rather hypothetic for myself, since I am not an American citizen. I just think the outcome of the next presidential election will be decisive for the next few years of world politics, so I am naturally interested.)

But - and here I disagree strongly with zirka - I think that

a) the proportional system is more democratic in that it allows people a greater variety of choices (it is true ONLY in the American - or British - context that one always has to choose the "lesser evil" of two) and in that the greater range of possible options makes it easier for the people to determine which policies they want enacted - and if parties A and C form a coalition government to have a majority in parliament, and send parties B and D to the opposition benches, they have to find a compromise between the preferred options of A and C, and the voters of A and C will maybe not be completely happy, but then, democracy is essentially characterised by compromises.

b)not feeling adequately represented by two (and only two) parties and having no chance but to stay home on election day is not a very satisfactory solution. (I am not "playing hard to get", zirka, this is no joke, and no bloody game, we are talking about "the pursuit of happiness" for millions of people...)

Having said that, where does the "fundamentalist" approach enter the picture? As far as the German Greens are concerned, there is a very good book by an American poliologist on the subject (if I remember correctly, it's Markovits): "Fundamentalism" was rather different from the rather wide-spread feeling that neither the Christian Democrats nor the Social Democrats (or the Republicans and the Democrats) had satifactory policies. The German "fundamentalists" were rather far-left, etatist (state-monopoly oriented), "anti-capitalist" ideologues - and the German Green Party had to get rid of them before it could really get a chance to establish itself as a serious political party with an elecotrate of more than 5 per cent and the possiblity to enter coalition governments at any level of the state (from municipalities to the federal republic).

Now I would describe myself as a center-left, liberal, market-oriented ecologist (whose views on economic policy don't differ much from Prof. DeLong's - and I sure hope this doe not damage his reputation), but I still would very much prefer to vote for Green candidates (as for instance, Mike Feinstein who was for a time Mayor of Santa Monica and still is on the Council there) rather then for democrate.

If a green presidential campaing would seriously damage the chances of Bush not being re-elected, this is a serious matter, and I'd think twice (or rather a hundred times) before deciding for that path.

Only I resent taking it for granted that since Bush won over Gore (and by the way, didn't Gore himself have any responsibility for losing to that jerk???), any third party option is or rather should be "anathema" right from the start.

I just like to think about possible options, before I decide for one of them.

Posted by: gerhard on February 24, 2004 06:01 AM

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Those interested in electoral brainstorming and news will probably enjoy the Swing State Project. It's a blog devoted to covering the swing states, where that's defined ad (Gore + Nader) - (Bush + Buchanon) =< 10%. That's about 20 states.

Posted by: Luke Francl on February 25, 2004 08:42 AM

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And that URL is http://www.swingstateproject.com.

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