Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

I'm sure many of us have mixed feelings.

As I had contemplated a more bullish report, based on analysts' expectations of a gain of 125,000, I also dreaded the certain White House positive spin on the story and the impact on the early Presidential campaign.

Now we have a negative outcome in economic terms, but one that will keep the employment issue alive politically for some time.

So I am distressed and relieved ,instead of being relieved and distressed, if you get my drift....

What was projected? My recollection is that it was something like 120-130,000.

Market consensus was 125,000.

Note as well that January and December were revised down by a total of 23,000.

Policy isn't working, is it?

Brad from his secure academic position sighs. Jim Harris has a mixture of relief and distress? Jim must also have job security. Those of us looking to break into the workforce have no relief and little sighing. There is a lot of distress and rising anger at the incompetence of Bush administration to establish a coherent jobs policy.

Why would Jim contemplate a more bullish report? This is just spin that is causing turmoil in the markets. There is no need to get your expectations up. Maybe some areas are improving, but not the heartland. The economy in the midwest continues to stagnate. Prognostications of a jobs increase is so much babbling by the clueless.

There will be no jobs recovery until all the factors that are adding to the problem are corrected. Count on it. States continue to contribute to the problem in order to meet their budgets. Demand is still slack, so investment is going into making products more cheaply rather than hiring more people to make more. Mr. Bush is ideologically hamstrung from doing anything to help the states. Mr. Bush is politically hamstrung by his tax cut promises from reversing course and pursuing a demand stimulus instead of a supply stimulus.

If Senator Kerry can put together a coherent jobs creation program and explain in simple terms why Mr. Bush has failed, he will win big. There are plenty of things that Mr Bush "should have done" that he has failed to do. By presenting a coherent positive jobs program, the failure of the Bush adminsitration will be obvious.

>> The labor force participation rate
>> fell to 65.9 percent in February,
>> reflecting a steep drop-off in
>> the number of men in the labor force.

How will Kaus and Sully spin that one? Or will they just attack Krugman as shrill when he uses that fact in his next column?

Which raises an ethical note. Every bit of bad news on the jobs front and every death in Iraq, whether US or Iraqi, makes it more difficult for GWB to be reelected. And I am convinced that getting him out of office is more important than anything. I was a historian at one point, and the fact is that a point by point comparison of GWB's rhetoric and actions match up well with at least a certain pre-war Italian leader, (while so far not going as far as the other guy). We are not allowed to use the language of early 20th century politics, the emotions are too raw, but if the bundle of clubs and axes fit so-be-it.

So at this point, I'll take news of job losses, and like it. It is far better than the other numbers from Iraq that would have the same effect.

i'm not that sure that so many other things might have been done to avoid such an outcome on the job market: productivity gains are pervasive as the service sector also failed to create jobs (in a country like france service productivity is very low - even negative hence some job market resilience during the last few years of lacklustre growth): where will you create jobs as you substitute capital to labor everywhere (see IT investment spending booming while structures where factors are much more complementary is collapsing)? What happen to us dynamics when tax cuts wane, that is after spring ?

A bad economy is chemotherapy to rid the government of radical Republicans, as in 1992. Think of it that way; the nausea is an unavoidable side effect.

I guess that a policy has to be a demonstrable unambiguous failure before it will be rejected by the courtiers. In that light, these numbers are good news.

"A bad economy is chemotherapy to rid the government of radical Republicans, as in 1992. Think of it that way; the nausea is an unavoidable side effect"

I'm in the middle of reading Koba the Dread by Martin Amis, and was struck by the above-statement.

I hope most anti-Bushies aren't using this Stalinist rhetoric. It might make the speaker feel good, but it might also work against you.

Bakho, i despise bush administration policy as much as the next person, but there are reasons to believe that job creation will improve: a.) productivity growth has been declining, meaning we are probably at the point where it's hard to squeeze more out of the same level of headcount; b.) CEOs are finally showing a willingness to hire (at least as surveys show, although obviously it hasn't yet translated to job creation); c.) there are indications of top-line growth.

That doesn't mean i expect anything like what the backbone administration promised last year, but i do expect that we may yet get to the 125K jobs a month growth some point this year.

Evariste: we will never know, of course, but what many of us at this site and elsewhere in the sane universe suggested when Bush pushed his 2003 tax cuts was that, like, he structure them so as to serve as true stimulus, which would have meant temporary tax cuts oriented towards the 75-80% of households earning $80K/year or less.

Even one of the local wingnut radio talk hosts here in Pgh, Jerry Bowyer, admitted that the jobs report was "not good". Bowyer has sometimes been ridiculed on this blog for various economic ideas he espoused. I've endured various forms of bullying and/or subject-changing when I called his show to point out factual errors in Bowyer's arguments or in GWB's.

When Bowyer et al. cease being cheerleaders for the Repubs, the Dems have a chance for a sea change in the political climate ala 1992.

"Policy isn't working, is it?"

Just curious to hear from some people...what would you be doing to create jobs? Frankly, I'm puzzled.

I'd like to see some real analysis of this. What's the problem?

Outsourcing? The numbers of jobs going out don't seem high enough, and many of these are things an employer would contract out for anyway, not hire.

Not enough stimulus on the low end? The things that a stimulus is supposed to stimulate--manufacturing output, consumer spending, etc.--seem to have been going up steadily for months.

Unusually high productivity? Maybe. I know my computer lets me do a job that would have taken five or six people only 15 years ago. Is this that common? But it's not like Rossums Universal Robots opened branches in every city recently.

Does the deficit drag that much on the employment rate? It hasn't in many past deficit years.

Something I haven't thought of?

Almost every indicator in the economy is going up, except this one. Is this something new, like "stagflation" was?

Real thinking on this, please. If Brad has links to earlier thoughts on this, I'd like to see them.

And to the "Bush is a Dork" crowd: sit this one out. Play with your shirt buttons, or something.

I am going to read my crystal ball.

I see, the GOP, I see, Bush, I see, a prescription for economic prosperity and glory...

I SEE TAX CUTS!

I'm not saying Jeb would have been a GOOD President, but he would have been a better REPUBLICAN President.

I LIKE IKE! (at this point, considering decades of other Republican Presidents?)

Wonder if tbrosz has reached a "tipping point"? Help him out guys this is a plea for help.

tbrosz wrote, "I'd like to see some real analysis of this. What's the problem?"

The problem isn't that Bush hasn't been able to magically wave a wand and rid the country of recessionary effects. The problem is that his tax cuts are a *very* expensive way to stimulate the economy.

"Something I haven't thought of?"

Yes: giving some money to the states.

Jim Shirk captured it perfectly.

Yes, bakho, I have a pretty secure job, but I didn't mean to be flip.

So, the question becomes "what is the true nature of the problem and what can be done?"

In my view, the true nature of the problem is that the fundamental relationship between capital and labor is broken. Labor (that is money earned by working) has been systematically devalued over the past twenty years.

Government economic policy has favored capital at the expense of labor, tilting the playing field so that now, there is a huge imbalance. The anti-labor advocates of preferencial treatment of money earned by investing rather than money earned by working have lost sight of the fact that one man's burdensome labor cost, is precisely what empowers another man's cherished consumer.

"I LIKE IKE! (at this point, considering decades of other Republican Presidents?)"

Under Ike, the top income tax in America was 91%. I'd love to see that brought back. There is a lot about America in the 1950s that I'd like to see brought back. The idea of a CEO making 450 times what his/her lowest paid employee is paid would have been unthinkable in the 1950s.

">> The labor force participation rate
>> fell to 65.9 percent in February,
>> reflecting a steep drop-off in
>> the number of men in the labor force.

How will Kaus and Sully spin that one? Or will they just attack Krugman as shrill when he uses that fact in his next column?"

Posted by: P O'Neill on March 5, 2004 06:54 AM

From the Kausbot/Sullybot:

All those Patriotic Americans who aren't Evul Librul PC pro-Saddamite flip-flopping islamofascistsymps realize the only possible Glorious Truth - that this means that more people are rich enough to not have to work for a living.

All Hail the Bush Boom!!

Besides, the current bad situation is caused by the Clenis and Saddama Bin Hussein. When those Iraqi jets crashed into the World Trade Center on 9/11, Everything Changed. Criticizing the President is now Verbotten, until the end of the War on Terror (which will, of course, be officially ended upon the election of a Democratic President).

By the way, before everyone gets too excited, remember that 94 percent of the workforce does have a job. Who are they going to vote for, and what are they going to base their decision on?

I've had as many differences of opinion with tbrosz as anyone, but i think when he asks for serious discussion, we should provide him with serious discussion.

The heart of the job problem, tbrosz, appears to be twofold: on the one hand, very weak top-line growth has led bottom-line conscious businesses to rely on cost-cutting as a means of improving profitability (with all the associated affects: slow wage growth, layoffs, not filling vacant head count, lack of investment, less business travel, etc.), on the other hand, relentless competition constrains prices for consumer items (even in the face of rapidly jumping raw materials prices - as a small example, i deal regularly with architects and contractors, and they are all screaming the blues over the jump in steel prices).

Since you don't want to hear a discouraging word about Bush, we won't talk about what he could have done differently. Instead, the best mix remains, in my estimation: a.) actually fund the roughly $94B in homeland security infrastructure improvements that hart and rudman (among the very few people who got it right about terrorism prior to 9/11) have called for as a public works project; b.) still go ahead and pursue the notion of a payroll tax holiday as a means of simultaneously improving demand-creating purchasing power in the hands of lower income households while lowering the cost of labor for businesses; c.) extend the accelerated depreciation provisions to encourage further investment; and d.) demonstrate to the bond market that these aren't further signs of fiscal irresponsibility by cutting other spending (ag supports, anti-missile systems, etc.) and rolling back the elimination of the estate tax and restoring marginal rates at the high end to the level they were at during the clinton years.

None of this is going to help instantly - better conditions today required a better policy mix 1, 2 and 3 years ago - but i think it will help tomorrow....

PS. Funny you should mention "stagflation," tbrosz, because that's exactly where I think bush policies are leading us. If, in fact, we saw real job growth taking place, the bond market would be so freaked out that the long bond would jump at least to 5 and probably much more, and what a nightmare that would be....

Howard: thanks for the input.

Just out of curiosity, do the complaints about steel prices predate Bush finally lifting those stupid steel tariffs, or are they still high?

As for the payroll tax holiday, I'm all for tax holidays of any kind. But one of the things I'm puzzled about is that the stimulation of business from increased consumer spending appears to be taking place, i.e. the tax cuts work as far as that goes, but this doesn't seem to be showing up in jobs. Don't know if additional low end stimulation will do any more than that.

tbrosz, yes, in fact, the steel situation is getting worse (from a contractor's perspective, at least). On the assumption that you use a working email address, i'll forward you a recent report from a construction management firm that came my way. (The general assumption, btw, is that it's Chinese and Indian demand for steel that is driving costs up, which fits with an interesting comment i saw from a money manager in Barron's a few weeks ago about how the prognosis for the Rust Belt is as good as it's been in 20+ years due to marginal advantage in delivery costs of steel to the chinese market.)

As for the stimulation, i'm not really sure that i agree with you. There is some reason to think that top-line growth is improving a little; however, when WalMart's, which i'm sure you'll agree knows more about consumer behavior than you and me put together, suggests that people are buying the lower-cost items, on payday, i think there's plenty of room for bottom-up stimulus to provide top-line growth that would drive job creation....

Two points: no one should be wringing their hands over bumps in short run good news-bad news before the election. We have a 3.5 year history of this recovery versus previous ones. The emphasis should be on that history. Nothing will change that history over the next 8 months. And it also helps us avoid distracting and unimportant squabbles over things like the payroll vs. household employment survey. Both indicate a weak employment recovery compared to history. Check out anne's posts on the comparative strengths for recent recoveries in the archives.

I agree with tbrosz, with whom I disagree -and probably will continue to disagree- with about most things. But tbrosz has a very constructive side, and I think he is making a reasonable request. Maybe using historical data from previous recoveries to develop scenarios for alternative fiscal policies is a good idea. I have asked for that, but I am obviously a hopeless liberal. Now we have a conservative asking for the same thing -in a positive spririt and in an search for consensus. So I think something like that would be very useful.

So, me, I am four weeks behind in my weekend plan for getting a better picture of the comparative history of this and other postwar recoveries. And I am not enough of a macro person to know how to the scenarios.

But I think tbrosz suggestion is something that the serious macro people here, and the host should take seriously. Are you afraid of scenarios? You shouldn't be. The mainstream macro predictions on employment have been much better than the admin's. So you have a good record.

Oooh, oooh! Call on me! Meeeee!!!!

Think the current stats are bad news? Look at what BLS is forecasting as the fast-growing jobs over the next decade, here (http://www.bls.gov/emp/emptab4.htm):

Two of the top 10 are real careers: postsecondary teachers (i.e. college profs) and general and operations managers. Then there's the other eight:

Registered Nurses. (OK, a real career, but mediocre pay, low status, high burnout.)
Retail salespersons.
Customer service reps.
Food prep and serving workers, including fast food.
Cashiers, except gaming.
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners.
Waiters and waitresses.
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants.

Doesn't that make the future of work look bright? And I've been a college prof (math, if you care), and I wouldn't bet $10 that there'll be a serious increase in the number of college professors over the next decade. Maybe in the number of adjuncts, but that's like migrant labor with a credential.

The next group of 10 is even worse: receptionists, security guards, teacher assistants. Truck drivers and home health aides are the royalty of this group.

Ah, the brave new world that Bush is leading us toward!

jml, i will say this (in the spirit of us both agreeing that tbrosz deserves serious attention to his serious questions): while i recognize that the 4 most dangerous words in investment are "this time it's different," i do actually think that "this time it's different."

Why?

First, because unlike most recessions, this one was supply-overhang driven, so right off the bat, the character is somewhat different.

Second, because this is the first full business cycle in which advances in IT are being played out (meaning, in short, that very-close-to-real-time information keeps businesses from ramping up in advance of demand).

Third, my hunch is that the super-accomodative Fed, in its desire to mitigate recessionary forces, kept this to a very mild recession, which probably means that the ecological function of recessions - to clean up the excesses of the previous boom - hasn't been well executed this time (in short, perversely, had we had a "worse" recession, we'd probably have a "better" recovery).

Which is what makes tbrosz's questions so apropos.

RT:
Of course the largest growth will come in the categories that make up the largest portion of our population. That doesn't mean our society is moving towards having a higher percentage of those jobs. Look at the percent increases for that.

RT:

No wonder they want to classify burger making as manufacturing. Now all they need is a way to justify cleanliness as a product.

> what would you be doing to create jobs?

Giving some money to the states. The cuts in North Carolina are really quite horrific, especially in services that really cannot be classified as 'wasteful big gubmint', unless you believe that the market will provide care for the mentally ill.

This lurker just pops in to thank howard, rt, tbrosz, everybody for an outstanding discussion. It's been a pleasure

I'm pretty sure I'm pinched by the economy harder than anyone else here, and frankly the prospect of a mini-recovery getting Bush past the election bothers. I'll try to hold out until next year. (I just asked my son if the company he's underemployed by is hiring).

Among the emplyed 94%, there are plenty who have friends in the 6%, who are underemployed, who wish they could change jobs but are stuck, or who are fearful of the future. Unemployment has its multipliers too.

Howard -- much of what you are saying seems to be the real difference.

The 1990s investment boom was one of those once
in 50 year cycles -- in this case it was more like 70 years back to the 1920s -- were massive excess capacity, especially in capital goods is created. This recession is different -- it was not an inventory cycle and it was not really caused by tight money or inflation as other post WW II recessions were. Rather it was a busting of the internet, technology bubble as everyone realized they were creating way too much capacity. If you take this view, the surprise is that the economy held up as well as it did -- the aggressive easing by the Fed did work as well as the inadequate fiscal stimulous. But we now face a structural problem of over capacity in tech, especially communications. If the econ problem is structural over-investment it can not be worked out quickly as an inventory cycle can. So just throwing money at the problem will not work as it did in other post-WW II cycles. Rather, policy should be targeted more to investment in public capital and areas where the international leakages will not keep the multiplier impact weak. If you spend your tax cut on a Chinese TV the second round impact occurs in China, not the US.

Of course to accept this idea you have to accept a long-wave cycle idea, and that may be too non-
consensus to get widespread acceptance.

The real question is, are we in the early stages of a decade or more of stagnation like the Japanese have been in after their bubble burst?
I believe the analogies can not be ignored.
But, the political debate is so skewed from reality by the Neocons attempt to destroy the modern mixed economy that I have little hope of
good policy being followed.

It's the BUSH NEW DEAL !

"Details in the report were as bleak as the headline figure. Private-sector employment was actually unchanged in February, while the government added 21,000 workers. "

All growth explained by government hiring ! No CCC or WPP hoes or shovels -- This time you get a gen-u-wine US-Issue metal detector wand as you step into your new TSA inspector post at your local airport !

How Sully got his spin back: The New Republic is providing the "I didn't do it" Bush excuse for the numbers:

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?pt=xwkUArrAZheENa9zyjk9Pw%3D%3D

As a middle class earner and non-economist, I'd just like to chip in as to why the tax cuts have not provided much in the way of stimulus from those of us not in the upper brackets. Plain and simple, if you're not rich, the amount you get back from the government just isn't that much, particularly if you are already saddled with consumer debt. After the first tax cut, I got my $300 check. Of course, typical of how this administration operates, it was not made clear that my rebate was really an advance on my income tax withholdings. Since that time, the adjustments in tax rates have meant that I'm able to afford an extra DVD or take out meal every two weeks. Wow! That will get this country going again. A plan that would have targeted more of the tax cuts to consumers, which would have allowed for consumer debt reduction and new consumer spending would seem to have made for a more stimulating package.

hey, you guys are actually conversing, rationally. haven't you done this before?

howard:

Doesn't the second paragraph contradict the first?

"First, because unlike most recessions, this one was supply-overhang driven, so right off the bat, the character is somewhat different.

Second, because this is the first full business cycle in which advances in IT are being played out (meaning, in short, that very-close-to-real-time information keeps businesses from ramping up in advance of demand)."

(Unless you assume that advances in IT didn't kick until the trough of the recession.)

Also, what determinants make you consider this a "mild" recession, especially when compared to the GHWB recession?

RT: I just came to your comment and busted up laughing in the middle of the office. (They think I've gone bonkers.)

OGMB-- The analysis by Howard is very much like mine, we just expressed it differently.

What howard calls tech advances I would call
productivity and the productivity rebound began in 1995. It is interesting that the last couple of years of productivity growth are not that unusual on a cyclical basis, but real GDP growth has been unusually weak. From 1960 to 1975 --a
high productivity era -- productivity growth

averaged about 66% of real gdp growth. From 1975 to 1995 productivity growth averaged about 50% of real gdp growth. Since 1995 productivity and real gdp growth have been about the same and over the last couple of years productivity growth exceeded GDP growth.

By most economic indicators, such as industrial production, real retail sales, capital spending, etc.. this has been a weaker recovery than the
Bush I recovery in the eary 1990s.

Interesting, every previous recovery was a snapback recovery even though forecasters always predicted a weak recovery. What happend in 1990 to cause recoveries to suddenly be weak by historic norms? The political answer is "voodoo"
economics -- but that is what was different in the last 2 recoveries. Even Greenspan, when he was Fords economic advisor in 1975 convinced Ford that a tax cut to the wealthy would provide little help since if they wanted to buy a car they would and taxes would not make much difference. If you want tax cuts to work you have to give them to people that will spend the money, not the wealthy. We even saw that last year when the consumer ran right out and spent the tax rebate checks. Guess what, that was the part of the Bush program that worked.

"Of course the largest growth will come in the categories that make up the largest portion of our population. That doesn't mean our society is moving towards having a higher percentage of those jobs. Look at the percent increases for that."

Yes it does actually, because the percentage increases (10-48) are mostly above the population average (14.8). Once you remove the :) emoticon from RT's link and then follow the link provided on the page, you'll see that the original article (by Hecker) differentiates between "fastest growing occupations" (by %) and "occupations with largest growth (by #). The numbers by % are here: http://www.bls.gov/emp/emptab3.htm and don't quite look as bad (average earnings percentile 2.0 instead of 2.6). The question is really which one to follow. Largest % growth is usually the result of a small base, largest # growth the result of a large base. I guess the simple answer is "those who fare well on both counts". Which are, err..., postsecondary teachers.

Hecker article: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/02/art5full.pdf

Thanks, spencer, yes, we are thinking along very similar lines.

so the one small point i'll add is this: as i recall very vividly from late 2000, the tech bubble was such that companies were placing multiple orders through multiple sources every time they needed a piece of equipment. Once someone confirmed delivery, they cancelled the other orders. As a result, many constituents of the tech supply chain believed we were still in a much higher demand environment than we were.

Having discovered that their systems were over-estimating demand, they corrected their systems.

Meanwhile, outside of the tech world, comapnies already were calibrating supply and demand very tightly, as they continue to do.

spencer:

Thanks for comments but:

"What howard calls tech advances I would call productivity"

My reading of howard's tech advances is more specific: better ability to forecast demand and to adjust supply in-time, which (assuming again that this played out over the last 10 years and not over the last 2) should imply that the supply overhang wasn't a major contributing factor unless something severe happened (analysts playing foosball instead of crunching the numbers, etc.)

Also in the same vein by Spencer:

"Rather it [the onset of the recession] was a busting of the internet, technology bubble as everyone realized they were creating way too much capacity."

I don't have numbers handy to back me up on this, but didn't Detroit and Everett have the same excess capacity problem? And I would claim that Detroit and Everett still have a bigger impact on the economy than Santa Clara and Redmond.

ogmb, see my 2:25 comment for (i hope) some additional clarification, but to pursue things a touch further: i make the assumption (more anecdotal than empirical, but not unique to me, either) that the ratcheting up of productivity in the last several years, while rooted in many sources, includes, at long last, a payoff on IT investment (which i suspect reached a tipping point).

The "supply overhang" that i reference is definitely the tech/communications supply overhang, since that's where the slowdown first hit, and as i said at 2:25, i think there were some very specific factors that accounted for why the general improvement in IT ability to match supply and demand (in a just-in-time way) didn't obtain in the tech world in late 2000.

But with that problem corrected, i think that ramping up in advance of actual demand (a hallmark, after all, of the dot-com bubble in particular!) is now such an anathema to the body corporate that no one's willing to do it.

Does that make it clearer? (It doesn't necessarily make me right, of course, but i'd like to hear alternative viewpoints.)

"see my 2:25 comment"

howard:

Simultaneous typing accident -- thanks for responding to my post before I posted it...

Re: multiple equipment orders, I see your point but I doubt that your anecdote had much of an impact on the economy. That sounds like a dot-com rookie mistake, and I doubt Intel, MS or Dell were culpable of it. And really, the dot-com bubble might have had a major impact on stock prices, but its effect on a. employment and b. GDP growth still seems marginal to me.

A better explanation why the dot-com might have triggered the recession is still "animal spirits": around 2000 everybody realized the (overall) boom was not sustainable, and when the dot-com bubble burst everybody started to restrict spending in order to brace themselves for leaner times. The "dot-com (or even tech) as stuttering economic engine" explanation still doesn't seem plausible to me.

howard,
I respect your opinion, but it would be nice to find some data, or find some one who has analyzed the data to see which of the hunches are likely.
It seems to me that we do have the estimates to sketch out who would be demanding what if the income tax cut were more evenly distributed. In fact, I tossed out a list on a previous thread that I remembered from a macro class, but it was very non-specific, and I don't know where to go to get recent data.
I absolutely agree that this recession is probably productivity -or capacity led. And you brought up an important point, which is how much of the measured excess capacity is just useless misallocated capital, and how much can be put to use making things people might actually want to buy. From the way things have been going, at least some of it must be potentially useful excess capacity.

ogmb, yes, i don't think msft, intel, or dell made those kinds of mistakes, but other big vendors did (sun, for instance, sticks in my memory, although i could be being unfair) - i distinctly remember a write-up (in fortune, iirc) about it, and we're not just talking rookie mistakes. maybe if i have a few minutes this weekend, i'll try and find it.

that said, let me try and be clearer: i'm not saying that the dot-com element of the economy (which i agree was rather tiny, even in its heyday) per se triggered the recession. I do think that a supply overhang in general triggered the recession (i.e., thousands of corporations woke up one day in 2001 and said, you know what, we don't need to buy the next killer app, we've got plenty of killer apps now), but i'm not in the least opposed to the animal spirits draining aspect of the dot-com implosion you point to.

There's never a single cause for a recession, after all.

However, forget what triggered the recession (we'll leave that to the economic historians, like our host); the question i'm interested in is whether "this time it's different," and i still think the answer to that is yes.

jml, believe me, if i could point to some empirical data, i would! I try to keep up, but i do have a real job, but i draw my opinion from regular perusal of the wsj, barron's, the economist, and similar sources. Of course, if my theory is true, there will be empirical footprints, but someone else will have to search for them....

howard, I sympathize. My day gig has leaked into the weekends lately, so I have little time to find any data, so am reduced to looking for studies that do it for me. I am very curious to find income consumption estimates, or something that could be used to maybe spin some likely scenarios regarding spending effects of a more equitable tax policy.

To repeat my list I rememberd from macro class, give poor, working and lower middle class money and they buy
-food
-clothes
-household durables
-health and educational services
-household services (day care and activities for kids)
-housing
-recreation
Anyone have a better list, or a source for one? Some of above would go to exports, but alot would be farily respectable service and good type things produced domestically.

jml
"respectable service and good type things produced domestically" are getting harder and harder to find, no?
Still, better ( for the general economy) than the wealthy investing offshore without any thought save ROI.

Maybe there is a point where patriotism steps in and we refuse to buy that cheaper, but often better quality product?
The issue looks different for the Lexus/Cadillac than say, the cordless drill. Market share shows continuing inroads against GM. Folks who have money, buy the best; folks who don't, buy the cheapest. It's getting clearer that we don't build the best anymore nor the cheapest. In fact, it's getting a little scary about what we can and do build right here, from scratch, without imported components.

tbrosz: "By the way, before everyone gets too excited, remember that 94 percent of the workforce does have a job."

So this is the definition of "workforce" you are using: -- quoted from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

"People are classified as employed if they did any work at all as paid employees during the reference week; worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm; or worked without pay at least 15 hours in a family business or farm. People are also counted as employed if they were temporarily absent from their jobs because of illness, bad weather, vacation, labor-management disputes, or personal reasons.

"People are classified as unemployed if they meet all of the following criteria: They had no employment during the reference week; they were available for work at that time; and they made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons laid off from a job and expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The unemployment data derived from the household survey in no way depend upon the eligibility for or receipt of unemployment insurance benefits.

"The civilian labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons. Those not classified as employed or unemployed are not in the labor force."

So your definition of workforce is "everybody who is (self-)employed, or has made 'specific efforts' to find a job in the last 4 weeks". That's too narrow to be useful as an indicator of how much of the working-age population participates in labor, and by implication makes a living income.

If you add in the marginally attached (our old discussions), the (U-6) rate goes to somewhere around 10%. And that's only among the people who live in _households_ subject to survey. Presumably people who live on the street, or otherwise not in stable households, are not part of the surveyed population.

Also this number is a national average. Some regions have more unemployment, others less.

tbrosz: "But one of the things I'm puzzled about is that the stimulation of business from increased consumer spending appears to be taking place, i.e. the tax cuts work as far as that goes, but this doesn't seem to be showing up in jobs."

Well, it has shown up in jobs, on a world-wide scale. If you go to any non-high-end department store, you will find that most items on the shelves (in all categories) are manufactured in Asia, most notably China. This regardless of the brand name. And this is typically high-quality stuff, not the stereotypical junk it allegedly was a decade ago.

Same goes for tech goods like all kinds of electrical devices, power tools, etc. The whole product or major components are manufactured in Asia.

When it comes to domestic goods and services, food, construction supplies (wood etc.), communal services, and personal services like hairdressing, landscaping, cleaning, daycare, transportation, healthcare, etc. come to mind.

Most of these are to some extent elastic, i.e. sensitive to how much people have to spend, but I doubt that people cut down a lot on most of the personal items during bad times, and consume much more in good times.

Local governments are cutting staff and expenses (this is the state funding some people alluded to), and commercial transportation may be impacted by the better supply chain management others mentioned. I'm not sure about the construction business; a lot of that is going on around here. Not sure about healthcare either; I can only suspect that most of the cost increases go towards writing of expensive high-tech products and drugs. The quality of healthcare has increased, but maybe not the volume.

So on the bottom line, much of the demand for consumer goods creates jobs in Asia, and domestically as well as abroad you also have productivity growth. If your outsourcing partner in Asia has higher productivity, you wouldn't have to contract stuff to domestic firms that much to match growing demand.

I disagree with cm, if I understand him correctly

"When it comes to domestic goods and services, food, construction supplies (wood etc.), communal services, and personal services like hairdressing, landscaping, cleaning, daycare, transportation, healthcare, etc. come to mind."

"Most of these are to some extent elastic, i.e. sensitive to how much people have to spend, but I doubt that people cut down a lot on most of the personal items during bad times, and consume much more in good times."

It seems to me that these are precisely the kind things that would geta big boost if tax cuts were spread more evenly. Certainly things like home improvement and landscaping would seem to grow rapidly with income. Other things like getting health insurance and continuing education may require large up-front payments that are not feasible for people facing severe budget constraints.

jml: "It seems to me that these are precisely the kind things that would geta big boost if tax cuts were spread more evenly."

That's right, but we were not referring to how the stimulus should have been applied, but how it actually _was_ applied (tbrosz was originally wondering why the tax cut did not translate into many more jobs). That tax cuts create stimulus holds only if all else is equal, but we also had spending cuts and cost inflation in some sectors.

In addition to that my presentation was admittedly not very coherent. I was trying to explain to myself what could be the underlying reasons that the "stimulus" was so ineffective, and of course I'm largely speculating, but I think with regard to that I'm in good company.

To make my point more clear than I previously failed to do, my contention is that much of the stimulus went to people who were not so cash-strapped that they would have had to cut back on their elementary life support spending, and therefore _they_ would not generate large additional demand in these services. (I'm not saying there was no additional demand.)

A large portion of food and "grooming" related goods and services or daycare are not very discretionary as long as you can afford them, and thus would not have a spectacular impact on jobs. People will not eat much more or much less depending on pocket size, but will rather substitute different food items, or will eat at home versus out (the latter will have a measurable effect on waiter jobs).

The lower-income people you are alluding to may have had to spend the money in part to compensate for cuts in employer or government benefits, leading to substitution but not net job creation. There was a lot of complaining last year of triple-digit or higher increases in health insurance, probably in many cases neutralizing or exceeding tax cut benefits.

On the anecdotal side, one very popular beer place around here has been sporting happy hours from 4-6 pm on weekdays, and the whole evening on Saturday for I'd say half a year already. (But then maybe I have a wrong picture of its popularity?) Grocery prices seem to have stabilized after outrageous hikes in past years. On the other side, people looking for houses report it's a seller's market. That suggests where the stimulus (tax cut and low interest rates) is going.

thanks. You are correct wrt health insurance that I was thinking about reductions in employee benefits. The Southern Cal grocery strike ended with the workers increasing their share of health insurance costs from zero to $1,500 to $2,500 per year per worker/family covered. In the short run, if that increases profits and shareholder income, and reduces workers' disposable income, then I think that would result in a reduction in demand in the short run.

But I largely agree with you, and didn't mean to be nit-picky -I guess I am eager to see alternative scenarios using empirical estimates and that got in the way of my reading the posts accurately.

My main caveat is that I don't that foreign competition would be the omnipotent recovery spoiler if there were sufficient aggregate demand. But to be honest, I don't really know and that is why I'd like to see numbers. It may just be my economist-free trader side talking.

Another thing worth pointing out is what jobs have been added over the last year.

Basically, you've seen jobs in real estate, construction, health services, education, temp services and bars and restaurants.

The jobs that have been lost are mainly in manufacturing, telecoms, accomodation and government.

Without the real estate and construction jobs there would have been a net loss in jobs last year and those jobs are based on a housing market driven by very low interest rates. Health care is a domestic market not subject to foreign competition.

It's not a good set of job gains - even such as it is.

More detail can be found at the BLS, here:

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.tab4.txt

or summarized here:

http://www.la-mancha.net/archives/000076.html

(yeah, it's my weblog. Sorry. No point in rewriting the entire thing again however.)

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