March 05, 2004

John Quiggin Says the S-Word

One possible explanation of the high equity return premium over the past century is that private finanial markets do a very lousy job of mobilizing society's risk-bearing resources, and that as a result the market system gets incentives wrong and delivers us an economy with a much lower capital intensity and a much lower investment share than would be optimal.

John Quiggin points out on Crooked Timber (and John Quiggin and Simon Grant have pointed out in the American Economic Review and Econometrica that the natural solution to all this is the S-Word: Socialism: public ownership of the means of production.

Indeed, the U.S. Treasury did this in the 1980s, taking part ownership of Chrysler at a time when the private financial markets found it much too risky to touch. Robert Rafuse spent the best part of a decade as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Chrysler. Made the Treasury a *huge* bundle of money too...

Crooked Timber: Stocks, bonds and social security : ...The alternative explanation is that capital markets don’t do a very good job of spreading risk. For example it’s very hard to get insurance against recession-induced unemployment or business failure, even though standard models imply that this should be available.

Simon Grant and I have done a fair bit of work on this, with some specific attention to the Social Security issue. In this paper (large PDF file), published in the American Economic Review, we argued that substantial gains could be realized by investing Social Security funds in the stock market. We didn’t put a number on it, but I don’t find Brad’s half-embraced suggestion of $2.4 trillion in present value implausible.

An important point, though, is that investing in stocks will generally not be the best way to go, at least if the amount invested is large. A government agency holding, say 20 per cent of the shares in Ford and General Motors, would seem to have big problems. Leaving aside the specific institutional issues of the US Social Security fund, the obvious implication of the equity premium is that, unless there are large differences in operating efficiency between private and public enterprises, government ownership of large capital-intensive enterprises like utilities will be socially beneficial. The case is strengthened if monopoly or other problems mean that the enterprises have to be tightly regulated in any case. Again, Simon Grant and I have written this up, this time in Economica (PDF version available here)...

Posted by DeLong at March 5, 2004 06:57 AM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

thank you for adding this post to your Lindsey-Free-Lunch series. I've been a broken record on this (though using the word 'nationalization' instead), and I appreciate the front-page tip.

note also that CT's comments thread immediately gets to another issue on which I have harped, that the equity premium may not be biased high. they focus on selection bias. what would LFL have done to Germany in the first half of the previous century?

last, it would be nice to see papers on an issue on which I have not harped, but which seems to fit: on a societal level all pension schemes are pay-as-you go. no matter how you account for it, present production has to support present retirees.

full disclosure: I do not mind the idea of rational nationalization one bit. I have merely been surprised that a conservative like Lindsey or a dyed-in-the-wool neoliberal like DeLong would consider the policy.

Posted by: wcw on March 5, 2004 07:42 AM

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Quiggin & Grant is in Economica, not Econometrica ...

Posted by: dsquared on March 5, 2004 08:42 AM

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Isn't "unless there are large differences in operating efficiency between private and public enterprises" a pretty big caveat to this entire argument?

Posted by: Steve Carr on March 5, 2004 08:51 AM

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interesting........a lot of the textbooks I've been reading for my finance classes argue equity risk premiums - as predicted by the CAPM - have been consistently too high. Implied risk premiums should be much lowwer than the 5% to 7% rates predicted by the spread between the long run return of stocks and t-bonds.

Posted by: haraldb on March 5, 2004 08:58 AM

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Quiggin and Grant argue for socialism? Doesn't this make them dupes like Paul Sweezy? After all look what happened in the USSR when they tried socialism.

Posted by: PanJack on March 5, 2004 09:10 AM

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wcw writes:
"on a societal level all pension schemes are pay-as-you go. no matter how you account for it, present production has to support present retirees."

In real-economy terms, I think that this is correct. The financing mechanism (with which everyone is so obsessed) is about the method used to allocate claims, denominated in nominal terms, for real resources, to the retirees.

Posted by: jml on March 5, 2004 09:18 AM

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didn't finish my thought:
.. to retirees in a way that does not damage productivity and economic growth too much.

Posted by: jml on March 5, 2004 09:19 AM

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"One possible explanation of the high equity return premium over the past century is that private finanial markets do a very lousy job of mobilizing society's risk-bearing resources."

Keynes had this insight, what, about 70 years ago? Why do we have to keep rediscovering the wheel?

Posted by: Billmon on March 5, 2004 10:11 AM

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Just to add to that thought -- I don't have my copy of the General Theory handy, but I recall that somewhere in the back of the book Keynes did speculuate that if monetary and fiscal intervention didn't do the trick (i.e. move the economy out of a low-employment equilibrium) the state might have to take a much bigger role in the allocation of capital than a classic liberal (today we would say neoliberal, I guess)would be comfortable with.

Posted by: Billmon on March 5, 2004 10:16 AM

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> look what happened in the USSR when they tried socialism.

When was that, exactly?

(One could say, 'look at how Dubya is trying capitalism', and it would be a similar question, since both entailed adherence to Party dogma.)

Posted by: ahem on March 5, 2004 10:22 AM

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Because there are lots of other possible implications as well, including any of the following which have been written up in various sources:

1. We've been measuring the risk premium wrong, not accounting for low-probability catastrophic events like a domestic war. Interesting but I don't know if this is falsifiable or not. Maybe starting a futures market in conflict would shed some light on this. Fear of nuclear holocaust would certainly bias consumption decisions.

2. Misspecification of preferences, like habit formation or complementarities in consumption, or the influences of durable consumption and housing. Again I don't think that this is falsifiable though it is certainly interesting, especially the housing case.

3. Mehra and Prescott (1985) use the S&P500; maybe this is a bad measure of the market portfolio. I for one would include corporate bond returns in this composite risky asset which they don't do; corporate debt accounts for a large portion of firm value, and it certainly isn't riskless. It also has a lower average return than stock. I'd also use a broader market index, though this might actually exacerbate the puzzle.

Also the functional forms of the distributions of asset returns and consumption may matter; M & P wrote their paper before cheap Monte Carlo simulations were possible, so they had to take a few shortcuts. Which leads into....

4. The "infinite-variance" approach that dsquared might assume--the expectations in the CCAPM might not exist at all if error terms are, say, Cauchy distributed. And we do know that financial returns have large tails. Interesting but hard to verify.

5. Aggregation problems.

Either way there's a lot of work still to be done; my guess is that someone will solve this puzzle by accident in the process of doing something else.

Posted by: Chris on March 5, 2004 10:31 AM

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re: Socialism = public ownership of the means of production

Spare me. Haven't we learned anything since the day Marx died?

A better definition:

Socialism = Greatest Happiness of the Greatest Number -- and it's up to us to figure out how to make this happen using markets, private investment, and the democratic process to foster a progressive tax system that redistributes income without destroying the incentives to work and enterprise.

Posted by: Luke Lea on March 5, 2004 10:41 AM

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in re the equity premium, it's been suggested that a low probability of catastrophic loss (on the order of 1 in 250, iirc) can explain much of the puzzle. Mehra's response (2003) is that this risk would have to apply only to equities, as bonds bear catastrophic risk, too. still, it certainly is possible that the asset classes bear differential levels of catastrophic risk. selection bias (cf http://www.gsm.uci.edu/~jorion/papers%5Ccentury.pdf) and transactions costs (Vanguard hasn't always offered the S&P for basis points) may be measurement issues as well.

per Jorion & Goetzmann, on a '21-'96 basis expanding the sample from US-only to all-markets (including interrupted markets, not just survivors) drops your ex-post arithmetic return from 5.5 to 4.6. throw in transactions costs and lop off another, say, percent of premium (and that may be kind; I've seen wrap portfolios pay 3% annually, and this long after VFINX was available). add in an ex-ante differential catastrophic risk, and back-of-the-comments-thread we're down to a very explainable ex-ante equity premium for the last seventy-odd years.

still, even a charitable interlocutor would certainly ask, quite rationally, whether going forward there should be any adjustment for transactions costs or even for differential risk. I expect probably not on both accounts. however, the market P/E has in recent years reached a much-higher-than-historical plateau. I wouldn't bet my house on its discounting much-higher-than-historical future returns to capital rather than lower fees or crash risks.

Posted by: wcw on March 5, 2004 11:47 AM

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revised version of

re: Socialism = public ownership of the means of production
Spare me. Haven't we learned anything in the last hundred years?
A better definition:
Socialism = Greatest Happiness of the Greatest Number -- and it's up to us to figure out how to make this happen using markets, private investment, and the democratic process to foster a progressive tax system that redistributes the economic pie without destroying the incentives to work and save.

Posted by: Luke Lea on March 5, 2004 12:51 PM

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wcw writes:
"on a societal level all pension schemes are pay-as-you go. no matter how you account for it, present production has to support present retirees."

Immensely important, and approximately correct. It's true on global aggregate level (not sure if "societal" if broad enough).

There is some limited capacity for past-period production ("real savings") to meet current-period consumption, e.g., in housing stock.

There is some limited capacity to buy current-period real labor input (think services) with future-period real output. (Whether this breaks the pay-go principle is a largely a matter of definition.)

In general, if we propose to keep seniors alive past the break-even point, we have to cover their current real consumption piper with current real production. We can do this with socialized social contracts in token wealth, or privatized social contracts in token wealth, or real asset-transfer to aging citizens (so they reach retirement owning everything, and the rest of us rent and share-crop), or filial piety, or what-have-you, but we end up paying the same piper ... and "grow the economy" is the answer in all cases.

Posted by: RonK, Seattle on March 5, 2004 02:08 PM

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I think the best (partial) resolution of the equity premium puzzle is the work by Ait-Sahalia.

His basic answer is that we are looking at the wrong consumption measure, when we estimate the variance of consumption growth. The vast majority of people who have had the majority stake in the US public equity markets (the source of the volatility in stock returns in most such studies) reflect changes in their wealth with consumption in luxury goods. The variance of consumption is luxury goods seems to be enough in many cases to "explain" the equity premium puzzle.

Posted by: mg on March 5, 2004 02:09 PM

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The theory involves the decisions of individual investors and investment decisions are actually made by self-selected bureaucracies. In fact, the investing decision makers seek to maximize their own returns, not the returns of the OPM that they invest.

Posted by: citizen k on March 5, 2004 03:09 PM

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I don't think the peso problem (small catastrophic risk) is an argument against Quiggen and Grant proposal. Let's say the equity premium is do to a positive risk of a stock market meltdown (orgder of the great depression). In such a case, a resonable policy response would be a huge one shot deficit (increase in public debt net of public assets). Exactly that would be achieved by the Q&G mechanism
which would act as an automatic stabilizer.

So if the equity premium is irrational, they are right, if it is a rational response to a peso problem, they are right.

I argued this yesterday at http://rjwaldmann.blogspot.com

Now there is a problem for the SSTF of driving prices up and eliminating the puzzling premium. I have thoughts on that today at the URL that even I am not shameless enough to type twice in one comment.

Posted by: Robert Waldmann on March 5, 2004 04:39 PM

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To quote someone from another era: " Old soldiers never die they just fade away." Isn't Marx dead yet?

Posted by: ed phillips on March 5, 2004 06:28 PM

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I agree with RonK in Seattle too. Repeating something in another link -maybe the Scandinavian policies for increasing their fertility rate in the post nuclear family era is the really important SS reform they are doing (in addition to anything to increase productivity).

A good idea for this admin, maybe, if it were not for the base that needs constant feeding?

Posted by: jml on March 5, 2004 07:30 PM

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When are economist going to buck their Investment Bank employers, and admit that THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS AN EQUITY MARKET PREMIUM.

A number of forward thinking pension funds have done their homework and found that all asset classes see returns regress to the mean cost of capital. SHORT TERM returns are variable, and higher for equities because they are more volitile. But when diversified over time, the returns aren't so spectacular. Which seems quite right! Why would anyone buying a security get a free lunch just because they bought equities????

Is there an economist out there who can really show underperformance of bonds relative to stocks on a longer term basis? How about real estate to equities?

IF equities were so great, why wouldn't long term investors like life insurance companies have larger equity portfolios?????

Posted by: dumela on March 5, 2004 07:31 PM

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mg, you're my new hero for pointing me at Ait-Sahalia -- if anyone else is actually interested, cf http://www.princeton.edu/~yacine/research.htm

not only is the paper on luxury goods aces (click my name for the pdf), but the 2001 paper measuring options-implied distributions on S&P options is also brilliant, and deservedly won an award. I'm chewing on the 1998 paper on dynamic equilibrium now; I know the material there less well, but I like it so far.

Posted by: wcw on March 5, 2004 08:54 PM

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PanJack,

The normal socialist answer to your "Look what happened in the USSR" argument is "The USSR was state capitalism, not socialism." Chernaev adds "and it's Russia, too" to that already convincing argument.

Now let's take a look at the American situation. A FOAF ran the following routine at a meeting of left-wing doctors in Canada: first he asked everyone who thought that the general state of government intervention in the economy was better in Canada than in the US to raise a hand; then he asked everyone who thought that government intervention in *their specialty* was better in the US than in Canada to raise a hand. Everyone ended up with both hands in the air: the US is the world's most socialist nation.

Yor problem is, the regulated colonise the regulators. This is why Comrade Cheney is so busy paying off his friends. A socialist administration without democratic controls is a real bitch.

Posted by: David Lloyd-Jones on March 6, 2004 06:33 AM

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David Lloyd-Jones writes: A socialist administration without democratic controls is a real bitch.

And then when you get democratic controls, whaddya got? Imagine the whole world run like a New York co-op apartment building...

Posted by: David Lloyd-Jones on March 6, 2004 06:35 AM

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PanJack: another reply to your argument is that Quiggin stacked restrictions up one side and down the other as to just how often government SHOULD run businesses:

"...Unless there are large differences in operating efficiency between private and public enterprises, government ownership of large capital-intensive enterprises like utilities will be socially beneficial. The case is strengthened if monopoly or other problems mean that the enterprises have to be tightly regulated in any case."

Which is just a wee bit more limited than what the Soviet Union disastrously attempted.

Posted by: Bruce Moomaw on March 6, 2004 08:59 AM

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haraldb:

the equity risk premium is often simply measured as the difference between stock market and bond market returns between say 1925 and 2000.

in that case, it's more likely that the equity risk premium appears "too high" because the bond market returns are too low, rather than equity market returns being too high.

go back and look at stock market and bond market income yields in the 1940s and 1950s. it's not unusual to find years when stocks yielded much higher current income levels than treasury bonds, which generally had yields in the 1.7%-3.0% range. since the nominal expected return on a low coupon bond is very close to the YTM, long-term treasuries yielding 2% in the 1945-1955 era were egregiously overvalued.

there's very good arguments that stocks are priced to return the current dividend yield plus the long-term nominal growth rate of 3%-7%. that's because over very long time periods the return on the stock market is mathematically close to the initial dividend yield plus the compound growth rate in dividends. since over long-time periods the nominal growth in dividends, earnings and GDP has averaged around 3%-7%, you need a starting dividend yield of about 3%-5% to get a valuation that'll produce the average observed return of 10%-11% annualized.

so, it's hard to see how the stock market today is undervalued (or the equity risk premium too high) with the aggregate market yielding just over 1%.

Posted by: Anarchus on March 6, 2004 04:12 PM

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Chrysler's return to profitably didn't occur in a vacuum: the government now had even more incentive to restrict imports of Japanese cars, which were eating Detroit's lunch.

Now, domestic political considerations might have resulted in the same restrictions, but it will be much easier for government-assisted enterprises to show a "profit" when various political forces can be mobilized to their advantage.

In other words, Halliburton, except sharing some of the profits.

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