Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

Europe and Japan must be suffering the same undertow on jobs from globalization as we are. It would be interesting to see what forms the debate about this issue is taking abroad, what remedies the politicians are recommending.

It is interesting that financial firms have been off-shoring back office jobs to Ireland for over a decade. Moreover, the ammount of off-shoring in Ireland is about the same as in India. But we do not hear any complaints about off-shoring to Ireland or Israel -- the 3rd most important off-shoring center. Maybe it is racism, but I doubt it. It is really the weak economy that is the problem, not off-shoring. Protectionism only becomes an issue in weak economic environments,
not when the economy is strong and creating new jobs for the displaced workers. Off-shoring is the symptom, not the disease. The disease is the weak economy that in turn is partly due to the Bush "voodoo" economics strategy of tax cuts for the wealthy as the only answer to everything.
The only part of the Bush program that worked was the rebates to the less affulent last summer.
If we had had more of that the economy might be in better shape.

"It is interesting that financial firms have been off-shoring back office jobs to Ireland for over a decade...."

And, as we noticed when we travelled in Ireland, American high tech firms are all about as well....

Spencer's comments are most important.

Anne

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/07/international/asia/07INDI.html

India Takes Economic Spotlight, and Critics Are Unkind
By AMY WALDMAN

BOMBAY — India has finally arrived on the global economic scene. Unfortunately, like a debutante suddenly told she is wearing the wrong dress, it is not exactly the triumph India imagined.

In recent weeks, the outsourcing of white-collar service jobs to places like this financial capital on the Arabian Sea has become the focus of the American presidential campaign, the brunt of jokes on late-night shows, the subject of angry Web sites, and the target of legislation in more than 20 states and Washington.

Long caricatured in many American minds as home only to snake charmers and poor people, India is now being caricatured as a nation of predatory brains set on stealing American jobs.

The strong reaction to the shifting of jobs is spawning frustration in India, a country the United States was cheering not so long ago as it began to open a largely socialist, closed economy and enter the global arena. It is also surfacing as a potential irritant in relations between the countries. Indians say they are doing exactly what the United States wanted, and bridle at the new criticism as a double standard.

"The U.S. is propagating capitalism — we don't really understand why they are so scared," said Ravi Shankar, 36, an employee of Tata Consultancy Services, India's largest technology services company. "If you're going to talk about competition, you should have no fear — may the best man win." ...

The Ireland comparison is disingenous. Ireland has a high standard of living and pay rates two thirds of the US equivalent and rising (I know first hand as I interviewed job shops while pretending to look for technical work the last time I visited -- strange vacation habits, I know, but I feel compelled to try it everywhere). Indian technicians and accountants and computer programmers make less than US minimum wage so we are legally prohibited from competing (not that we would want to).

Ireland also is a major consumer of IT products and services. India is only an exporter and won't be an importer anytime soon. That means that when a job goes to Ireland, there is another one created in another country. When a job is exported to India, it is simply stolen forever. The native demand for IT services will be negligible for generations in India.

And the siZe of offshoring to India is grouwing toward being bigger than the entire USA accounting and IT industries very quickly. Everyone with a job in a brain job in the USA should fear losing it to India. Ireland on the other hand has a normal distribution of professions similar to what the rest of the world has and a total population of only about 5 million.

And a lot of the Irish outsourcing is the fruit of corporate tax evasion schemes rather than real offshoring (ask your corporate tax accountant how to do it).

Spencer, maybe people have the impression that both Ireland and Israel are as much a client as a provider, so the business case is neutral, while the popular image of an impoverished India makes hard to figure that in fact they can be as good a client as any European Western state.

DSW

Spencer asks the right question.

I've been wanting to point that out for months now -- why India?! Why not Ireland? Isreal?

I'd like to think it's not racism (for the most part). It's probably because India's considered a backward country (and in many ways it is) and there is this (irrational?) fear that suddenly US living standards are going to have to fall to the low Indian standards.

Why do we read that the Chinese or Indians are "stealing" jobs? What abour Mexicans or Brazilians or South Africans or Nigerians or Thais or Slovaks or Hungarians? We should be careful with such language, even if we wish to limit out-sourcing. Possibly we should limit out-sourcing, and we do use subsidies to keep jobs in America, but are such subsidies stealing jobs from abroad?

I'm Indian and an economist. Does that make me doubly bad?

in all analytical honesty I think (a)technology and not offshoring is the real villain of the jobs piece, and (b) sadly, America in the late 1990s had unsustainable salary levels and employment levels. Not that this was bad, just unsustainable.

During 1997-2001 the Internet really came of age. And let me tell you it made a hell of a difference to the work of entry-level researchers in firms like ours. Data entry became a thing of the past, as did data-gathering trips, or trips to the records room at the FERC or FCC. Statistical packages also improved in power and user-friendliness. It really became possible to do a lot of non-trivial projects for quite a low budget and with quite few man-hours. Consequently some of the researchers who left, in some areas, were never replaced. I worked most of those years at a very conservative firm. But I was aware that other consulting firms were hiring by the bucketload. And e-strategy and e-consulting firms especially. By mid-2000 a lot of the people who'd been lured by that kind of bait were being laid off.

I saw two distinct phases- technology adoption, which created many new jobs, and technology maturation, which meant that technology became much more reliable and equally that people learned how to use it effectively, which had ambiguous effects on employment at best. Initially getting data online must have been a labor-intensive task. Getting websites up and running, ironing out glitches, indeed even learning what those glitches were-- all involved substantial human input. However, once maturity set in, the level of human input required decreased.

So why aren't John Kerry and co tripping over each other to have us all use 4004 processors in our computers? Or electro-mechanical calculators? What happened to the jobs of secretaries and typists, and even graphic artists, when PowerPoint and Word make it so easy to create an attractive report or presentation from your desk? Even the aesthetically retarded like myself can do this now! Let's get rid of word processors and spell checkers too, shall we?

Offshoring is not going to be win-win.But it will produce aggregate gains. Luddism and protectionism however have no upside.

Even if the gains from offshoring are highly uncertain and by no means universal, there will be no upside whatsoever from Luddite protectionism. Offshoring is one more aspect of technological progress. Trying to repeal offshoring is not so distinct from say banning the use of the Internet for data-gathering purposes.

Offshoring has a name and a foreign face attached to it, so it gets a lot of heat. But by no means is it anymore of a threat, or any different in its impact, than those vaunted productivity gains.

And anytime someone refers to jobs being "stolen", that says a lot about their mindset. A huge part of the emotional trauma of offshoring is realizing that the privileges associated with nationality and ethnicity are not as pervasive as they were in the past. All the middle-class Indians I know have computers, use the Internet and Microsoft software. There's a collossal market out there. Already far larger than the Irish market, I assure you.

oh, blah-blah 'protectionist' blah-blah. It's important to keep a technology industry in the united states,

hello? anybody home? is this not obvious? how can a world class competitive economy consist of ceo's and manual laborers (non-offshoreable) alone?

demolishing the american middle class will not lead to world prosperity. i suspect that path will lead only to war.

i also find the assumption that some minimal protection of technology industries will lower american competitiveness to be bogus. highly paid labor leads to technological innovations that require less labor input.

Duh! slashing tech salaries allows for sloppy work, sloppy resource allocation, sloppy management, and endless re-use of should-be obsolete technologies. You see that in India, btw, where the should-be obsolete has a much stronger prescence even in the technical colleges.

I can bet my bottom dollar that India buys far more of American products and services than Ireland does. Just because per-capita incomes in Ireland are higher doesn't compensate for the scale effect of India's higher consumer population. Anyone have figures on this? Finally, the wages for an Indian software developer with moderate experience (3-5) years are $1500-$2000 per month, which are definitely higher than minimum wage. There are plenty of American workers (including white-collar workers) making less than $2000 per month. Call center workers get paid much less, but so do their counterparts in America. Call center work was never considered to be anything other than a temporary job, and was never famous for paying good wages.

Also people forget a basic fact of economics. If a company has a lower cost of producing something, they are more likely to produce a greater quantity of that good. That means that for consumers of outsourced services there will be a greater quantity of available services, and for suppliers of these centers there will be more goods and services they can sell to the outsourcing centers in India.

On one hand, I think it's a good thing that SOME of these jobs are going to places around the globe.

There's just a few problems...

Mainly, the problem of lowering global wages, especially in what is becoming a more and more consumerist/service based economy. Frankly, it's not sustainable. My concern is eventually the jobs will leave India for even cheaper places (in reality, that's already begun). What's needed is CEO's and HR departments to decide to lower their profit line and hire a few more people, just to be patriotic and help their country.

I'm serious...that's what's needed.

On the "racism" angle...I work in the tech support industry..there are some very good Indian techs...and some very crappy ones too. A lot gets blamed because "they are Indian". Well..

The last place you want your call to go to if you want good help? The good 'ol US. Unfortunatly, from a signal-noise ratio, domestic tech support centers..well..they are not as good as you expect.

It's a lot of customer service as well. That's the difference. It's not just about knowing your jobs..it's VERY easy to just get that person off the line and not help him one iota..there are bigger forces in play here.

India is a huge country of over 1 billion people. Could anyone say whether - from an Indain point of view - ousourcing is epiphenomenal?

P.S. Did you notice the google ads in blameindiawatch.blogspot.com.

Saurabh has no idea, but that will not stop him/her:

"I can bet my bottom dollar that India buys far more of American products and services than Ireland does. Just because per-capita incomes in Ireland are higher doesn't compensate for the scale effect of India's higher consumer population. Anyone have figures on this?"

From the Gov www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh6s.pdf (2003 data):

India-US trade:
US exports $5B
US imports $13.7B
US balance -$8B

Ireland-US
US exports $8B
US imports $26B
US balance -$18B

Tiny Ireland buys more US goodies than 1B people India. At least within lifetime of our children there is a chance that we will run positive trade balance with Ireland. There is ZERO chance of that for India. There are 300 million people who cannot read or write in India. What in hell you are going to sell to them?

So the US runs twice as large a trade-deficit with Ireland than with India? In intro macro, they always tell you that y=c+i+g+(ex-im). So those 5m Irish (not to mention 31m Canadians)are more of a drag on US output than 1B Indians.

At PPP, India's GDP is $2.5 trillion. At least 10 times Ireland's. The statistics that Mick provides show that (a) India's external sector is amazingly unimportant to its economy, and (b) that there is a lot of potential for growth in India-US trade. Quite soon 1B Indians will be buying a lot more from the US, even if they will be selling much more too.

The trade numbers show that India's impact on the US economy through trade (including invisibles) has been very small. The impact through immigration has probably been more substantial. But a lot of this immigration happened in the 1980s and 1990s, years during which the economy was creating jobs at a healthy clip.

In all those trade numbers make me quite certain that the US jobs malaise of the last three years has little to do with outsourcing and India. The jobs loss has been terrible in manufacturing- not India's forte. If 2.3 m jobs have been lost in net, and manufacturing alone has lost 2.8 m, then there have been gains elsewhere in the economy. Gains that might have been stronger absent India, but at best there would have been a few thousand more jobs.

It's understandable that the trend is what worries people, as opposed to the existing facts on the ground. But surely the same argument could be applied to the trade picture- India could be looked at as an opportunity and not just a threat.

Quite soon Indians will be buying from US ... what? Japanese cars? Computers made in China? Linux? The trend is towards US having only three things to offer the world: weapons, franchises and pop culture. And keep in mind that the popularity of all these items depends on America's status as the sole remaining superpower. Few people would consume Coke (water with coffeine and sugar), go to McDonalds (barely edible burgers and fries) or watch Britney Spears if they came from, for example, Mexico.

The problem with outsourcing to India is that it may completely decimate US white collar jobs (or right now the IT sector). It's what happened to US manufacturing sector after years of shipping jobs abroad. Who cares if Indians may potentially buy American goods in return? If the same job were done by Americans, wouldn't they be purchasing American goods with their salaries--not to mention the income tax that the US treasury loses from shipping the jobs to India.

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