Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

Is it fair to say that because the two primary levers of economic stimulus under political control[1] are no longer operable, the *only* meaningful lever left is out-year tax increases?[2]

[1] Those levers are: (i) increasing investment by lowering interest rates, and (ii) increasing demand by lowering taxes/spending on public works.

[2] Works by restoring confidence that the federal deficit will be manageable over the long term.

How about this as a policy:

Return taxes on those making over $200,000 to the Clinton levels.

Temporarily cut taxes on those making under $50,000 (or send rebate checks), to stimulate the economy.

According to an article from the American Progressive website the 21,000 jobs that were created were all with the federal government. If Bush is talking about reducing the deficit at some point he will either have to reduce spending or increase income. If he reduces spending then he will have to layoff/fire some federal workers if he increases income he will have to raise taxes. The obvious choice is that he will layoff workers, but from where? During the Clinton years they reduced the size of goverment and one of the results was a surplus. The problem Bush has is that while I am not certain I would guess that a number of the 21,000 jobs were with the SEc and homeland security, how does he cut these jobs when the DOJ has all these high profile trials going on with Ebbers and Stilling trials on the way. He can not tell people that he is going to be tough on white collar criminals without allowing Spitzer and the other state AG's to take the credit for what his SEC should be doing, and then cut SEC personnel. You also can not defend the homeland and then reduce staffing for homeland security.

Could you answer a simple question? It was stated that the unemployment rate was 5.6% and one reason it did not change was because hundred of thousands Americans stopped looking for jobs.
O.K. What are they? Not unemployed? Or is it just another reason to keep the figure low. If these people are or are not looking for a job they are still unemployed. Right or wrong?

Exactly--it should be noted whenever this is discussed that the focus on "tax cuts" was shifted by the White House and its flacks to a supposed "jobs and growth" plan!

Remember all the nice TV backdrops behind Bush everywhere he spoke-- they didn't say "tax cuts", they said "jobs and growth".

I can remember numerous instances of this plan being touted by Admin offials on TV as "carefully crafted", "specifically targeted", etc to CREAT JOBS, and it also being explained at least indirectly, that this was because of the Republicans' supposed business expertise, which knew how to create jobs, unlike the "socialistic" Democrats, who hate the free market and business, ya know.

Exactly--it should be noted whenever this is discussed that the focus on "tax cuts" was shifted by the White House and its flacks to a supposed "jobs and growth" plan!

Remember all the nice TV backdrops behind Bush everywhere he spoke-- they didn't say "tax cuts", they said "jobs and growth".

I can remember numerous instances of this plan being touted by Admin offials on TV as "carefully crafted", "specifically targeted", etc to CREAT JOBS, and it also being explained at least indirectly, that this was because of the Republicans' supposed business expertise, which knew how to create jobs, unlike the "socialistic" Democrats, who hate the free market and business, ya know.

HJL -

The people that have stopped looking for work are listed as no longer being in the labor force. The BLS (http://ww.bls.gov) surveys people at random on the 12th of every month and they are asked a set list of questions. If they are not employed but have made no effort to look for a job they are not counted as uemployed, they are not counted as being in the work force.

--Iain

HJL -

The people that have stopped looking for work are listed as no longer being in the labor force. The BLS (http://ww.bls.gov) surveys people at random on the 12th of every month and they are asked a set list of questions. If they are not employed but have made no effort to look for a job they are not counted as uemployed, they are counted as being "not in the work force."

--Iain

A statitic I treasure (but only have roughly corect at this time of the morning) is that on English versus German immigration to the United States.

Germany vs. England is something like 3.4 million against 2.9, while Austro-Hunfarian Empire vs. British Commonwealth and Empireruns around 4.9 megahikes to 4.2.

Heaven forfend I should suggest that the Brits, as an offshore pirate nation, are big of freedom, while the Huns, stuck on the north German plain, highway of death, have had to be disciplined for the last four thousand years. Not Me. I didn't say that. Despite, even, being married to the excellent Susan Schmidt for 18 years, and fathering two highly disciplined daughters with her.

Americans are, in the view of most of the world, a bunch of bubble-gum blowing quare-heads. This is an inaccuate view, but it does have a basis. Can anybody here spell "Karl Rove"?

As an Orthodox Jew my views on Germany and Germans are complex: in the current generation they seem to be doing OK. In fact they've been a credit to the human race ever since Tallyrand -- give or take that little guy with the mustache, Himmler's empire in the east, and all these 85 year-old geezers sitting around with their beers asking themselves "What made me do it?"

It is probably unfair to ask whether America is in danger of a German-style fit of delusion. The Republicans have only put a violent mob in the streets once.

But consider: the US Armed Forces, with whom I am moderately well connected at every level, are an iintellectual elite comparable to Von Moltke III's Prussians. The SAT scores of kids going into the service academices have beated Harvard and MIT kids's for at least the last fifteen years.

The American officer corps is trained hard and deep in the separation of civilian and military powers and responsibilities -- modulo the order that went out on the eve of Richard Nixon's Resignation, tht nothing from the President was valid without other confirmation. This is one of America's greatnesses.

Those of us who are not Americans nevertheless fear the Colussus. Who are these random pipe-fitters and oil-grubbers who have come up with a hundred million dollars to suport this cretinous freak?

* * *

And they don't come any more pro-American than me. The anti-Americans -- generally people with no knowledge of history, philosophy, or even any science beyond "you stick the fuse in here" -- are rather a pest as well.

Brad,

I suggest you stop saying "bang for the buck" and instead use the phrase "marginal propensity to consume."

We wanna get some authority back in this operation, OK?

-dlj.

Brad,
Is it possible that the President is going to count all the illegal Mexicans as new jobs, once he changes the status from illegal to legal aliens? Am I a cynic or what?

How come no one seriously looks at stimulating the economy with public works?

If you deficit spend to fix/build roads, bridges, etc., you directly create jobs.

What's more, these jobs can't be outsourced (try importing a bridge from Singapore), and at the end of the program, you have fixed bridges and roads.

You create or improve the infrastructure.

I also think that it's easier to phase them out at the end of the program than tax cuts.

Matt Saroff-- it is very simple:
the government is the problem,

going back to the old line that I am from the government and am here to help you--

always good for a good laugh in right wing circles.

If you believe the govt is the problem,
public works can not be a solution.

>>I suggest you stop saying "bang for the buck" and instead use the phrase "marginal propensity to consume.<<

Surely, we wouldn't want non-economists to understand what we mean... ;-)

Can someone help with a question? Why are tax cuts to the "rich" (+$300K) less stimulative than tax cuts to the "poor" (<$300K)? I have heard of a difference in the marginal propensity to consume but this doesn't seem to answer the question. Posit that the "rich" save the tax cut - doesn't that reduce the lending rate at the margin and lower the cost of funds to the "poor"? Do the "poor" consume differently if their income is in the form of a tax cut or a reduction in their funding costs?

On the question of how to count people dropping out of labor market and other data problems.

BLS is very concerned with consistency, so the data you look at for 2004 means the same thing as the data did in 1980, for exmple.

Unemployment is a measure of economic slack and is designed to measure labor market ease and pressure. In the old manufacturing economy of say 1950 to 1980, in recessions manufacturing workers would be laid off. But being laid off from GM back then meant something different. You looked at is as something temporary and fully expected to return to your old job in a few months.
So you were not really in the labor market and not looking for a job. Moreover, other firms would not think of hiring you for a good permanent job because they would expect you to go back to your old job in a few months. such people were excluded from the labor force and it was a reasonable and justified and honest measure of conditions. But now people are not laid-off.
They are fired and have little or no hope of returning to their old job. consequenty, the old definitions of employment and unemployment do not mean the same thing they use to. so we need to change some of the ways we measure and evaluate the employment data and the unemployment rate.

But the fact that the old measures or inadequate is only now starting to be realized and not enough people recognize the problem to create pressure to change the employment reports.
Especially right now as both sides would scream bloody murder that it was being done for political purposes.

Matt,

Public works programs have been used in the past to stimulate the economy, and effectively. We did that during the Great Depression. I know you know that, and what you ar really wondering is why we don't do it anymore.

I think the best answer is that such projects have become vastly more difficult to do well, they tend to take on a life of their own, and they violate some of the philsophy chnages politicians have made since the Great Depression.

Say Texas has an employment problem and you want to stimulate it by building a high speed rail link between 2 major cities. A lot of the labor involved in this is actually pretty skilled, you don't let an untrained yahoo operate heavy equipment. So you create a specific type of job and demand but that job and demand might not be needed later. You further create jobs that support the jobs that do the public works project. But again, you have no guarantee that there will be a sustained demand for that job. But you now have a project which, when it ends, will just hav shifted the employment problem to the future.

Most economists like to rely on the market to identify long term business opportunities.

I would not say that public works projects are purely a bad idea. They often can be used to replace infrastructure that helps markets expand while providing stimulus in the form of consumption by the people hired to do the job. But in the long run it will distort the market and can be very dangerous to even begin for just that reason.

And then there is the political issue.
Pork, noun. Spending in someone else's congressional district.

--Iain

Help me out here. According to http://www.allegromedia.com/sugi/taxes/#head-1.htm, most income taxes are paid by those in the upper two quintiles. The bottom two quintiles pay little or nothing. Can you hammer the wealthy for getting a tax cut if the bottom of the pool aren’t paying enough taxes to earn a cut? And what income bracket defines the middle class, anyway?

And which dollar of income is it that is society can freely take as a big slice of as it wants as its own? Since there are no sound answers, a graduated scale of taxation is arbitrary. Perhaps we should take a fixed percentage of every transaction. People who spend more, pay more. And for those on the bottom, reverse tax them with credits to reach a certain level of income. All within what the government can afford to spend and without the bureaucracy.

Which dollar is it that creates jobs? A discretionary dollar? A low income dollar? I don’t think you can tell me. If, for structural reasons we temporarily don’t have enough jobs, perhaps you can tell me why someone without a job but with benefits should not show up to work for the community good and/or to attend retraining classes.

Are all these part of the third rail of politics?

Stimulating the economy with public works? We are doing the exact opposite. Because the states are strapped for cash, states are cutting out projects, laying off workers, freezing hiring, etc. At this point we don't need states to create jobs, just quit eliminating the ones they provide now. How about a program of providing states with money so they quit contributing to the job loss problem? This is the suggestion of every mainstream economist for direct job stimulus. Unfortunately, Mr Bush spent his time in TX trying to cut back state government. He is ideologically opposed to state spending and absolutely refuses to do anything that would contribute to expansion of spending at the state level. Mr Bush is hopelessly trapped by his own ideology, watching the states lay off millions of potential voters.

However: could somebody point me to the bit about *Chinese* manufacturing jobs dropping month after month?

It's like reading John Diebold (the *other* John Diebold) back in the 1950's, on how "cybernetics" is about to put everybody out of work.

* * *

This is a good place for me to sound off about the "information revolution" nonsense that is going around, conspicuously, in this context, out of the mouth of Chairman Al.

Where I work, mostly in the construction trades, there are startling increases in productivity visible every day, but they are what any sane person would expect: capital accumulation has gone forward to such an extent that the new jack you buy foy\r eighteen bucks is vastly superior to the old one that it sits beside (it has a handle you can sling it around by, and a little nub on the side for holding the pump handle [Bailiff not included. :-)]); your new caulking gun has a tube-opener built in, a little bit of wire that somebody got around to thinking about, that saves you half an hour every time you use the damn thing, you don't have to climb down to the ground to find something long and sharp in your tool box...

This is the everyday stuff that productivity-increase is made out of.

Competition between jack-makers and caulking-gun manufacturers is of the essence: we don't need people making light nails for numbers and heavy nails for volume, in order to meet the Gosplan.

There's a sense in which this is all just information accreting, making our race richer in the nouminous, non-material, ways which make the matirial stuff follow along. Still, it ain't Silicon Valley, it's tool and die makers out there -- tools and dies are culture -- doing their best.

This may be why NASDAQ was a bubble: the reality is closer to the ground.

-dlj.

My understanding is that WSJ subscribers are very well-to-do, probably holding a significant fraction of the nation's securities, and I would guess are people who have little interest in the Republican cultural warfare agendas. Given that these people have the most to lose from the kind of gimcrack economic management Bush is providing, how can the Journal's endorsement of these policies, and the superficial way they are examined, be acceptable? The unquestioning devotion seen here looks to have a canine basis to me.

DLJ,

I think you're right that your improved tools has improved productivity, but wrong when you say information technologies have not.

Information technology improvements mean: they know when more jacks are needed, they know where they need to go, they know how to get them there faster, if the jack gets better they have fewer old jacks in inventory to ditch before you get the new ones. . .

Information *is* close to the ground.

Hah! Perhaps job losses in manfacturing are slowing because they're running out of jobs to lose. Just a thought.

I don't get the idea that Bush has no levers left to pull. If Bush's tax cuts are poorly aimed as stimulus, shouldn't the "lever" or reversing those tax cuts in favor of better aimed tax cuts still be available? Doesn't the claim that Bush has no lever left to pull require accepting that Bush's tax cuts to date have been optimally targetted, or nearly so, for short-term stimulus, a position that is, at best, contested?

Can someone help with a question? Why are tax cuts to the "rich" (+$300K) less stimulative than tax cuts to the "poor" (

Well, I'm not an economist (that's Brad's job, but I'll try).

Posit that the "rich" save the tax cut - doesn't that reduce the lending rate at the margin and lower the cost of funds to the "poor"?

Not necessarily. "Invest" is probably a better word than "save", and highlights an important distinction -- the rich invest where the investing is best, and investing in, say, Indian software firms isn't going to have effect on the availability of credit for low-income American households. Similiarly, even if the "rich" just dump the money in domestic savings accounts, while it would increase the amount of funds available in US banks, it doesn't mean more lending, if the returns are better for other investments. And easing credit terms for the poor -- which generally corresponds to less credit-worthy -- in a time of domestic employment uncertainty isn't a sure-fire way of making a good return. Making loans to credit-worthy foreign businesses in places that aren't going through as much of a slowdown as the US may be more practical, those less expansionary.

Do the "poor" consume differently if their income is in the form of a tax cut or a reduction in their funding costs?

Maybe not, but there's no guarantee that a tax cut for the rich results in easier money for the poor. OTOH, tax cuts for the poor pretty clearly and directly result in more money for the poor.

Iain,

"But in the long run it will distort the market and can be very dangerous to even begin for just that reason."

This assumes that the markets are perfect. I believe the 2001 Nobel prize in economics was awarded precisely for work on the imperfection in markets. That is, your assumption is unfortunately not valid. Would that it was valid, then there would be no unemployment because the labor market would always clear.
But somehow the labor market doesn't clear -- ever. Somehow, the labor market has never been perfect.

Do not fear new government works programs because you think they might "distort the (implcitly perfect) market." There is nothing "perfect" to distort.

You also seem to argue against the limited time of well-defined government projects. Yet, many private projects are well defined and limited in time as well. Construction and the movie business are two examples of project based businesses that are often also well defined amd limited in time.

So, yes, the U.S. should build bridges, build roads, build infrastructure. You will notice I am not saying build a "dark fiber" network. The (implictly perfect) market over-built that infrastructure without any help from the government you fear. Somehow the market didn't work there either.

Many market are always distorted. I wish it wasn't. Distortion is not a problem, it is reality. Don't fear that perfection will be distorted, there is no perfection.

So why not do something that will actually help America, put Americans to work and build something we can all use in the future!

yoda

cmdicely- Bush has no lever left to pull unless he admits his tax cuts were wrong headed and reverses course. Even then it is too late in the year to have a fiscal fix that can be enacted and implemented in time for the Nov election. Only monetary levers can act that quickly and the Fed has the throttle wide open. Unless there is more fiscal steam, the jobs engine is going nowhere. Yes Bush could reverse course for the good of the country, but he probably will not do so.

The time to listen to friendly advice about providing the jobs that would assure his reelection was 2003 at the latest. Mr Bush could not bother to listen and anyway, he thinks he knows best and never makes mistakes. Shakespeare could write a play...

John, to address your question in overview form (someone who is a real economist with knowledge of the relevant literature can point you to the appropriate links i'm sure)....

First, it's wrong to point to those earning $300K and up and the "poor" as though between them they are the entire population. In fact, between them, they are roughly 11% or so of the population.

Second, the reason that tax cuts targeted at the roughly 75-80% of households earning less than $80K will provide more stimulus than those targeted at those making $300K+ is that the households making les than $80K have, virtually by definition, lots of unmet needs that they can't afford: repairs on the car, baby's new shoes, the chance to eat out once in a while, and so forth. So studies demonstrate time and time again that these households (as someone noted above!) have the highest marginal propensity to consume with any extra household income.

People making $300K and above may well have unmet psychological needs that translate into material desires, but again, virtually by definition, they can buy a new car, new shoes, or a restaurant-cooked meal whenever they want with their current after-tax income.

As a result, they are much less likely to consume the marginal dollar of household income.

Now, if they save that income, it does become part of the national savings pool, which does contribute to invesment - when there is a reason to invest. But one noteworthy aspect of this recession and recovery has been the very limited top-line growth, so very few businesses are looking to invest (if you net out government purchases, investment is very, very weak for a 27-month-old recovery).

So, on the one hand, we've got roughly 90M households, each racing out to spend their additional dollars as soon as their paycheck reflects them; on the other, we've got roughly 1.1M households buying more stock or bonds, putting more cash in their bank accounts, and sometimes buying new stuff.

That's why "stimulus" works best in a bottom-up framework.

the most important news which was missed or
intentioanlly missed by news organizations
was that 2100o jobs created were federal jobs,
not in private sectors.

Kerry should talk about thousands of worked who
have stopped looking for jobs thus the low
unemployment number. We should be looking at
9% or 10% unemployment rate.

Impact of tax cuts on poor vs. rich.

What if the tax cut the rich receive is just used
to loan the govt the money to finance the defict
that finances the tax cuts.

If the economic problem is a surplus of savings
the type of closed loop described above does not do much. In the 1930s the problem was an excess of savings and a shortage of investment-- so you got a liquidity trap. By shifting income from high savers to low savers you addressed the problem of insufficient demand to stimulate investment that would recirculate the excess
savings through the economy.

Because we are now looking at the aftermath of an
investment bubble -- not a normal inventory cycle --we have a fundamental problem of a lack of investment opportunity. thus we have a form of a liquidity trap where the money from the bulk of the Bush tax cut flows around in the type of closed loop described above.

In terms of public works, there is s difference between make work, and necessary work.

Our roads and bridges are falling apart.

Even if we are just talking about repair and better maintenance, we are talking about millions of dollars a year.

I don't know what the $ per job is, but my guess is that it would be in the $100-$200K/job directly created/year.

I'm of Keynesian inclination, so I figure that the best time to fix roads is when employment is down, as it smoothes out the troughs.

If we put $20 billion/year additional money to fixing roads, we'll generate something in excess of 200K jobs.

When you consider secondary job creation (did a quick Google), it looks like about 200K secondary jobs, for a total of about 300K.

Again, as everyone is aware, this works needs to be done, so getting it done now helps.

I would also argue that in a typical recession, the construction trades suffer, though in this one the low interest rates have temporarily forestalled that in a dark fiber kind of way. (Yes Virginia, there is a housing bubble)

sbw asks, "Can you hammer the wealthy for getting a tax cut if the bottom of the pool aren’t paying enough taxes to earn a cut?" Well, that fourth quintile isn't what most of us would call "wealthy," and even most of the fifth isn't, but OK. If basically only the relatively prosperous pay income taxes, can we "hammer" the prosperous for getting a tax cut? If it creates a large structural deficit? We can certainly "hammer" the folks who thought the tax cut was a good idea. Contrary to rad-right rhetoric, this has nothing to do with wanting to punish the prosperous.

On the other hand, you're right that the specifics of an income tax are arbitrary, and lots of folks think that consumption taxes would make more sense. I don't think this is a "third rail," exactly, but most of the winners probably would not realize they were winners, whereas the losers (and some who mistakenly thought they were losers) would probably be up in arms. It's hard to get that kind of change through Congress.

Bush has no lever left to pull unless he admits his tax cuts were wrong headed and reverses course. Even then it is too late in the year to have a fiscal fix that can be enacted and implemented in time for the Nov election.

It's probably not impossible if it involved something like a realignment of the tax cut that was advanced by a selective "witholding holiday period" (actually cutting checks would probably be impractical at this point), but it would take admitting a serious error with substantial consequences, so its not politically likely.

But we ARE rebuilding crumbled infrastructure -- thanks to our Marshall Plan to the second-most oil rich country in the world!

(Using offshored jobs in the process.)

Brad,

This sounds so incomplete it must be crap.

1 - Where do you take into account increased demand for free lancers and temps which always precedes payroll jobs.

2 - Where do you take into account new businesses started by those laid Off - like mine.

3 - I have a couple older laid off friends who didn't even start "looking" 'til their unemployment ran out.

Please look at the whole picture before you make believe you know what's going on, or maybe you don't like looking at data that doesn't support your opinions.

Adrian

Adrian

Brad,

This sounds so incomplete it must be crap.

1 - Where do you take into account increased demand for free lancers and temps which always precedes payroll jobs.

2 - Where do you take into account new businesses started by those laid Off - like mine.

3 - I have a couple older laid off friends who didn't even start "looking" 'til their unemployment ran out.

Please look at the whole picture before you make believe you know what's going on, or maybe you don't like looking at data that doesn't support your opinions.

Adrian

Adrian

Brad,

This sounds so incomplete it must be crap.

1 - Where do you take into account increased demand for free lancers and temps which always precedes payroll jobs.

2 - Where do you take into account new businesses started by those laid Off - like mine.

3 - I have a couple older laid off friends who didn't even start "looking" 'til their unemployment ran out.

Please look at the whole picture before you make believe you know what's going on, or maybe you don't like looking at data that doesn't support your opinions.

Adrian

Adrian

Yoda,
"Do not fear new government works programs because you think they might "distort the (implcitly perfect) market." There is nothing "perfect" to distort."

I know the market is not perfect. That doesn't mean you cannot distort it and make it worse.

You go on to say, "You will notice I am not saying build a "dark fiber" network. The (implictly perfect) market over-built that infrastructure without any help from the government you fear."

I agree with everything but the paranthatical comments, I never implied the market was perfect. What I tried to say was that the philosophy of our government is to let markets decide what is and what is not fundamentally profitable economic activity. I happen to think they are right.

I do not believe the government has a good track record of picking industries. Look at the track record of industry retraining sometime. Not that good.

Infrastructure, however, is not something the markets always do well. That is why governments build roads, issue money, hire police, etc. While infrastructure development can be good for the economy you can do too much.

Matthew, my belief is that the appropriate "public works" projects to be funding right now are the $94B in hardening of targets and improving the abilities of first responders that Hart and Rudman (among the very few to get terrorism right in advance of 9/11) advocate; i have no clue how much of a difference such a program would make to employment (though i suspect it would help), but it certainly would be smart policy.

Adrian, it's hard to figure out what you're saying, although presumably you're saying that you don't think the job situation is so bad. If so, you're wrong, and prof delong has carried lots of material demonstrating your fallacy.

In particular, i'll cite: a.) that alan greenspan acknowledged, in 2/11/04 congressional testimony, that the payroll survey is the one to pay attention to about jobs, and it's showing very, very weak job growth; b.) that compared to every other post-ww ii recovery, this one has been extremely high in productivity gains and extremely low in jobs gains; c.) that, as brad has shown, the household survey shows a smaller (and not larger) percentage of self-employed than 10 years ago; d.) the "new businesses haven't shown up yet in the records" aspect of the current situation would make much more sense if we hadn't been hearing about these new businesses not showing up in the records for a good year now.

As for your friends who waited until the unemployment ran out: tough luck to them. They ain't going to have fun finding a job now.

Bottom line: it's indisputably true that job growth is very, very weak. A couple of anecdotes don't change reality.

Iain: "While infrastructure development can be good for the economy you can do too much."

True. Examples: W. Va. and Texas are two states that have far too many lanes of highway than they can reasonably use. Midland, TX, airport is designed for 10x the air traffic the city generates (now I wonder why the feds targeted THAT particular city for a major airport upgrade).

However, overall the US abounds with opportunities for infrastructure development that will pay back many times over.

This report makes it clear that economists don't know what they're doing. The model is seriously deficient. Are they using a different model than you, Brad? Are you really so sure that cuts more targeted to the lower classes would have made much differnce. After all, the correlations between growth and jobs don't seem to be holding. We shouldn't need this much growth to get positive job growth. The fact is these tax cuts caused significant GDP growth and, based on traditional relationships, there should be more jobs. So what in your model would change this?

going back to the old line that I am from the government and am here to help you--

At one time the Environmental Protection Agency had an Office of Leaky Underground Storage Tanks.

"I am from the government office of _______ and I am here to help you."

Do the "poor" consume differently if their income is in the form of a tax cut or a reduction in their funding costs?

John

Don't you?

Adrian: the plural of anecdote is not data.

sbw: Many of the questions you asked have been dealt with by organizations such as the CBPP. Here's a paper that addresses your topic:

http://www.cbpp.org/4-16-02tax.htm

Iain,

"But in the long run it will distort the market and can be very dangerous to even begin for just that reason."
-yet
"I never implied the market was perfect." - So ... there is nothing to distort and so no danger.

Perhaps you didn't mean to imply the market was perfect. This assumption is so common that most people don't even realize they are doing it anymore.

"What I tried to say was that the philosophy of our government is to let markets decide what is and what is not fundamentally profitable economic activity. I happen to think they are right."

Are you saying that infrastructure is not needed for capitalism? That would we wacky. So I don't think you are saying that.
Are you saying that the government sometimes builds "white elephants". Yes, both private and public organizations can make mistakes. Yet that is not really the issue, is it?

"I do not believe the government has a good track record of picking industries."
You seem to be generally against government expenditures (although I hope even you would make some exception for national defense). That is not the argument here. This is not about wasteful central planning versus the palsied "invisible hand." This is about whether we will be paralyzed by fear (In your case, fear of government), so afraid we cannot help ourselves.

And yet, there are unmet needs in America. Three current and obvious needs are (1) rebuilding infrastructure, (2) "hardening" possible targets of terrorism, (3) jobs for Americans. It really is very simple. By spending money rebuilding and "hardening" America, we can also put Americans back to work. No one else will do this. The other nations of the world will not do this for us. Multi-national companies will not do this for us. No one will rebuild America but Americans.

This is "nation building" at home. This is taking care of our own. This is patriotism.

Well said, Yoda.

Moniker, your statement about WV roads is not correct. Still, most people drive around WV rather than through it. One trip down the WV Turnpike with semis passing you going 90 down the 6% grades will convince you that the 4 lanes are necessary. It also makes one wonder how they managed to build a road over such rugged terrain. Lack of good transportation is a prime reason why much of WV remains undeveloped and why most of the people in WV live near the Ohio or Kanahwa Rivers, the only decent transportation corridors in the state. (The other good reason is that the Federal Government owns about 1/4 of the state.

Targeting tax cuts to the lower class gives more economic stimulus than tax cuts to the wealthy, but tax cuts do not create as many jobs as giving money to the states. Consider that Bush has run up the debt from $5.6 trillion to $7 trillion in 3 years, an average of over $400 billion per year. For $400 billion, you could create 8 million, $50k jobs if you did a make work program. And Bush economy has created how many jobs? Minus 2+ million??

As for arguing employment numbers, it does not work. Employment cannot be spun politically. People vote their pocketbook the way they experience the economy. If cousin JoeBob cannot find a job, no amount of political spin is going to make him employed. If I am working a lower paying job, no amount of political spin can give me a raise. It is pointless to argue the numbers or try to spin them. People do not vote on what they hear about the economy. They vote based on how they experience the economy. Kerry does not need to say that employment is really 10% and not 5%. That does not matter. What any candidate needs to say is how he (Carol dropped out) will manage the fiscal policy to help create jobs.

This is a no brainer and very easy for anyone opposing Mr. Bush. Economists have been offering friendly advice to Mr Bush for years on how to improve the jobs picture. Mr Bush has not listened. Mr Bush believes he knows it all and the economists know nothing. Can we afford to give this guy another 4 years when he has ignored the helpful, friendly advice of the best mainstream economists? All Kerry or a Dem candidate has to do is say the economists are telling me that we can create jobs by reversing the tax cuts for the wealthy and investing the money in other ways. It is a winning message because the record of Mr Bush on jobs is pathetic. Who can argue? Give the other guy a shot. Can he do worse?

M. Saroff,
I hate to pop your bubble. Bridges can be imported. I just read that Salt Lake city imported a new library building from Mexico. Yes you have to use local labor to assemble the bridges/buildings. Much less bang for the buck relative to the US economy.
Some things that are infrastucture just are not manufactured in the US anymore. We do not build large electric motors anymore for instance. I assume there are many many more such examples.
I was involved in the construction of a large NASA windtunnel and the fan system was built in Japan, the make up air compressor was built in japan, the main drive motor was built in Finland and the main drive motor speed control was built in Switzerland. If government outsourcing was prevented by law when we were building the tunnel it would have been more costly and the resulting components would have been of lower quality. (I was on the source selection board for all these components) The other interesting thing to note was the large number of USA built components that went into the foreign manufacured items.
Just my small experience to add to the data hopper.

David-(Improved Caulking Gun)-Lloyd-Jones
OK, any talk of Productivity especially from the construction side hooks me. Hopelessly.
First of all, let me tell you that I'm not surprised that you're in the construction industry--after all something like 2/3 of the economy is tied up there. Firefighters and even bus drivers are contracting on their "time off". ( Believe it or not, I saw Stephen Roach the other day laying tape with a bazooka. He is one economist who lives by his word.[His word? As a criticism of other economists he claims "They should get out more."] He said of the tape job "America’s monetary policy conundrum is as excruciating as I can ever remember it". Taping is like that. Especially for the tyros. Greenspan? ...nowhere in sight. Thankfully.
You are torturing me with this:
"new caulking gun has a tube-opener built in, a little bit of wire that somebody got around to thinking about, that saves you half an hour every time you use the damn thing, you don't have to climb down to the ground to find something long and sharp in your tool box..."
Please desist. Arret. Maintenant. Escusey moi La Francios.
And this:
"This is the everyday stuff that productivity-increase is made out."
Give me a break. This is not N-O-T true. Even Roach's bazooka had no stupid little bit of wire that...
Let me guess, you have one of those new fangled squares that lets you mark the piece of lumber without "hunting for half an hour for your pencil".
Don't take this personally, but if I were your foreman you'd be gone. Fired.
Yes, for my sanity surely, but also for your obviously better skills elsewhere.

Thnx for the pointer Issa.

Bakho: "All Kerry or a Dem candidate has to do is say the economists are telling me that we can create jobs by reversing the tax cuts for the wealthy and investing the money in other ways."

So jobs is jobs, whether they are government or private sector. But an increasing cost of "doing business" (includes the taxes paid to create government jobs) drives private sector business out of state and out of country, reducing the number of businesses that provide jobs and that pay taxes to fund government jobs.

Where's the tipping point? How do you find it?

Matt,

I don't know how much infrastructure development is currently lagging in this country. I'm from Boston, we just spent a lot of money on infrastructure development (Big Dig). On the plus side it just lowered the commute for people living north of Boston by 15 minutes. Those are savings that add up fast.

I will say that I agree, when infrastructure needs building it can be a very good way to inject fiscal stimulus into the economy. Better to do it now than when the economy is booming, eh?

However, I always play devil's advocate about government expenditures. I do not think they are an easy solution.

--Iain

"Adrian: the plural of anecdote is not data."

Issa: Data is meaningless if it's incomplete. Today my 57 year old recently laid off cousin just told me "i've worked hard for 37 years so I'm gonna take a year off, Period! I deserve it."

You can't honestly tell me that my friends' experience is not statistically significant. I love Brad, but you Democrats are simply trying to use selective data to support your political objectives. Please be honest and stop pretending you're objective or scientific.

Do you really believe that raising taxes and stifling trade will help our difficult job situation. I THINK NOT!

Adrian

But Adrian, we're talking about an employment survey that has been used and respected for decades, measuring hundreds of thousands of people. You're telling me about one person. Not only can I honestly tell you that your friend's experience is statistically insignificant, I can also tell you that there is no way you can argue that it is. Unless, of course, you can point to reliable data that shows in any way that this kind of activity is newly increased -- or don't you think people took a year off in the seventies? Hell, a lot of people took that whole decade off.

So we have a respected survey giving unpleasant results, a lot of hoo-haw about mystery jobs, and anecdotal evidence. Who's cherry-picking the data again?

And finally, yeah, raising taxes in the 90s sure tanked the economy.

"that it is significant", that is.

"And finally, yeah, raising taxes in the 90s sure tanked the economy."

Again, you seem so easily convinced by incomplete data when it confirms your prejudices.

If you really were attempting a scientific analysis of the impact of economic policy on the direction and magnitude of economic change, you need to consider the general direction and momentum of the economy and the relative magnitude, direction and timing of attempted interventions.

This last recession was much deeper than it would have been had Clinton taken "his" recession a few years earlier. As usual, Clinton's political calculations trumped doing the right thing for the American economy which together with his anemic responses to the '93 WTC bombing, the Kobar towers bombing, the African embassies bombing and the Cole attack left America so vulnerable to the 911 tragedy.

Adrian

"If you really were attempting a scientific analysis of the impact of economic policy on the direction and magnitude of economic change, you need to consider the general direction and momentum of the economy and the relative magnitude, direction and timing of attempted interventions."

Don't forget reversing the polarity, dude.

Adrian, that is a very silly comment about Clinton, and suggests that you really aren't serious in your discussion.

When clinton pushed through his tax hike (with no republican support), the consensus of all conservative opinion was that a tax hike must, by definition, cause a recession, which showed up a mere 8 years later.

clinton had no obligation to "take" a recession - he pursued sensible fiscal policies and he got lucky and the combination meant that there was no recession on his watch. He had no obligation to "create" a recession.

What did happen is that we had a very mild recession and are now having, thanks to a poor policy mix, a very weak recovery. Your anecdotes don't change reality, as several of us have now noted.

Your comments on terrorism are equally silly, but that's not the topic of this thread. If you are among those who think that clinton is the source of everything wrong in this country, there's no reasoning with you anyhow.

Believing in God does not require believing in religion.

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