Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

"Larry Kudlow is both a supply sider and a "believer" in the household survey".

Not to mention a coke-addled chuckle head!

wasn't he the only guy who signed your pledge?

When I saw that the household survey suggested an employment decline and the only reason the unemployment rate stayed the same was a lower reported labor supply, I was wondering what NRO would do. Buzzcharts presents the unemployment rate as the only important labor stat why Kudlow gets even more creative. After all dishonesty trumps ignoring the facts any day when Rich Lowry is the editor.

Larry Kudlow is not only a supply sider he truly misses the "good old days" also no as feudalism.

Family net worth at a record $44.4 billion as of 12/31/2003. Gee that a 4.9% increase over the level on 12/31/1999. In real per capita terms? But then Kudlow is spinning that most of the people who want to work already have jobs. Gee, I'd love it if Bush-Cheney ran on this platform this year. Kerry in a landslide.

"Nixon was the worst economic president of the last 30 years, of either party."

This exhausts the sum and total of what I agree with Larry Kudlow about in the realm of economics.

Kudlow was filling in for Bob Brinker on MoneyTalk this weekend. Bob's a conservative guy and I disagree with him in the fairly rare instances when he speaks to the politics. But he gives solid if not particularly sophisticated advice to his listeners on how to save, invest, and deal with tax issues. Importantly, Bob's advice is non-ideological, at least to my ear. He spends most of his time on how to optimize in the world as it is, not the world as he would like it to be.

With Kudlow on this weekend, people were asking, as the usually do, about the attractiveness of Gold, stocks, mutual funds, and so forth. Kudlow addressed everything by saying how great the tax cuts are, that the deficit wasn't a big deal, that there was a surge in entrepreneurship and thus no jobs problem, and so on. So, in the most recent weekend, all the MoneyTalk callers and listeners got advice based on conserviative ideology and pipe dreams.

On the other hand, Kudlow did speak eloquently about free trade. On the third hand, he's also ignorant. When a caller asked about FTAA, Kudlow said "what's that?"; the caller says something about free trade and latin america; Kudlow says "Oh, you mean NAFTA." To the extent he gave any advice for which the merit depends on, say, exchange rates, trade deficits, and so on, Kudlow was basically speaking out of his ass.

I'm pretty dissappointed in Brinker for bringing this clown on.

AB

You have to admit that for 400 million in campaign contributions, Bush has doled out at least 2.5 Trillion in tax breaks for the wealthy.

You can't beat that ROI in this economy.

Flap away, folks. It's only March. The slow growth of the payroll employment number is the last arrow in the Democratic economic quiver.

94.4 percent of the labor force has a job. Who will they vote for and why?

94.4 percent of the labor force has a job. Who will they vote for and why?

Okay, good point--people without jobs are not the majority--even if you actually counted people who've stopped drawing unemployment, who've stopped looking, who *say* they are self-employed because that's easier than admitting that you're not likely to ever find a job again, or even the increasing number of young people old enough to vote who aren't counted because they are losing what would have been their first dead-end job to an increasing number of older, better educated people, desperate for any sort of income.

All the same, does anyone imagine that the majority of people who currently have a job feel confident that they are going to keep it, confident that they could if they wanted find better job, confident that whatever job they have or are likely to have will ever really support a family, confident that if they get sick or are injured, that they can both afford healthcare and keep their job, confident that they have, in fact any future but a crushing, discouraging and not even very slow grind to the bottom of the economic food chain?

I have a job, and it actually pays pretty well, but I have zero confidence that I'll have it this time next year. I also have zero confidence that I'll ever find another one like it because the competition--from people who've already lost their jobs and who've been doing what I do even longer than I have--is growing larger every day.

So I know how I'm going to vote...and I think thre's a lot of other people with jobs who'll vote with me on this one...

Not that I like to pick on tbrosz, because in his defense he is probably the most thoughtful of the conservatarians who post here, and his arguments are much harder to debunk than the average.

However, I would like to point out that there was a discussion over at Calpundit the other day when he was ranting about how the household survey was just as good as the payroll survey. When asked about what he thought the difference between the two was, he said he had no idea why there was a discrepancy. Just a tad ingenuous, wouldn't you say?

I believe that most of us who have jobs feel that we have them despite George Bush's economic policies, not because of them. The notion that because the unemployed are in the minority, people will vote for the current occupant is really beneath the intellect of anyone who has the ability to type in a comment here.

"94.4 percent of the labor force has a job. Who will they vote for and why?"

Most will vote their political leaning. Those who gained a job or got a better job might vote for GWB if they believe their improvement is due to the economic stimulus package. Those who lost their job or had to take a paycut or a less attractive job might blame the president for it too and vote for JK this time. Now looking at employment numbers three years back and today, how will this affect the elections and why?

"the entrepreneurial army of self-employed and independent contractors who have gone to work at lower tax rates..."

Is that supply-side speak for "gone to work at half their previous income"?

Throsz:
That logic didn't work for George I, why would it work for George II?

tbosz is not interpreting the numbers correctly. The participation rate out of the potential labor force is down around 60%. Yes if you take the 5.6% of people that are ACTIVELY LOOKING for a job and SUBTRACT FROM 100%, you get 94.4%. NOT CORRECT. Take the 5.6% of people that are ACTIVELY LOOKING for a job add to that the PEOPLE THAT WANT A JOB BUT HAVE GIVEN UP, add to that the people THAT ARE CURRENTLY WORKING BUT UNDEREMPLOYED and add to that the number of people that are working MULTIPLE PART TIME JOBS, and the current employment as a percentage of "FULL EMPLOYMENT" is far lower than 94.4%. That number is well below 90%.

Then one needs to factor geography. Presidents are elected by electoral votes. Some state such as MI have unemployment far above 5.6%. The 5.6% unemployment figure is misleading enough without tbrosz making unwarrented inferences.

The main reason the unemployment rate dropped in January is because the economy is so weak that more and more of the jobless have simply stopped looking for work. As Bloomberg reports, "1.6 million Americans have dropped out of the workforce in the past year" with "the percentage of those working or looking for jobs falling in February to 65.9%, a 16-year low." Last month alone, "588,000 people left the labor force as the economy created just 21,000 jobs, a sixth of the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 65 economists."

Now, this is truly an ingenuous question, and might even be taken as rude (though it's really not meant to be), but what the heck: What do all these people who have "dropped out of the work force" do all day? And how do they survive? They don't have jobs, they're not looking for jobs, they're not collecting unemployment. So what are they doing? I don't mean this as a criticism. I'm actually curious about the answer.

No, tbrosz isn't interpreting the numbers right because he's looking at absolute numbers instead of deltas. By and large, if your economic position hasn't changed much you're not likely to give the current administration blame or credit. You just base your vote on other considerations.

What do these people do all day? Hustle. Sell drugs. Prostitution. Knock off banks. Collect welfare. Steal things from rich people who got all the tax cuts. Panhandle. Start their own business and lose their shirt. Become a "consultant". Move back in with mom and dad. Sponge off relatives. Go to grad school. Go back to school. Return to stay at home mom or dad. Work under the table, occasionally. Sleep under a bridge. Teens just quit work and hang out on the streets. Take drugs. Get pregnant.

What would you do if you were not working?

I think I'd go to the movies and read. Or go back to school. But in all seriousness, have there been any serious studies of people who have dropped out of the work force that would give a sense of what percentage of people do the various things that bakho mentioned? Surely that matters to our understanding of what "dropping out of the workforce" means.

Speaking of dropping out of the workforce, Krugman treats the NYTimes readers to the Bush employment projections graph that Brad posted here a month ago.

Interesting story on new survey results on small business hiring plans:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=677&e=5&u=/usatoday/fewersmallbusinessesplantohire

Small businesses, the engine of U.S. job creation, are retreating on hiring plans - magnifying the jobless recovery.

The share planning to hire fell to 13% last month in a survey of 567 small firms out Friday. That was down from 17% in January, the National Federation of Independent Business trade group said.

*****
So I guess self-employment is one of the few arrows Bush-style macro advocates have in their quiver. I can't bring myself to call them traditional conservatives.

Actually I think us Bush doubters have many arrows in our quiver. Go through the archives here and look through anne's posts documenting the ways this recovery is weaker than previous ones -and they are not all from EPI either. Besides employment and employment ratio, there is growth in real compendation, real per capita GDP growth, and other measures. Until I see something that refutes those, it seems to me that all the Bush-people have is the relatively low unemployment rate -which is now falling very slowly or not at all. Tell me if you think different tbrosz.

I think bakho missed some options for people who drop out of the work force. There is going from a two (spouse) or three earner (teenager) family to a one earner. And there is early retirement and getting onto some kind of social insurance roll -I guess long term disability is the one I have heard mentioned the most.

He might be right about the kids, unfortunately. Going to school is harder now because no room and costs more. For K-12, less money for after school, sports, clubs, activities. So what is left? Hang out.

It would be nice to see some numbers about where they go. there must be a survey someplace that does that. Where is it? Of course even if we did see numbers, we would still argue, I suppose. The liberals (which include me) would say there are millions of unfortunately people hanging onto unemployment while earbestly looking and looking, and then making dispreferred arrangements to avoid ruin at the end. The conservatives will see moochers milking unemployment for all its worth while doing a minimal pro forma job search and then sitting back and choosing which government honey-pot to stick their fist into when the unemployment gig runs out. When I have needed to hire some temp help over the last year I have seen both kinds, but much more of the former (actually only one definite sighting of the latter).

The bottom line for me is this: who has the better track record for consistently more accurate predictions over the last several years? I have great respect for predicting things that you cannot know yet, and then seeing what turns up.

So that is why I keep pestering Prof D, or those like him, to make more predictions, or at least spin some scenarios. So in a year he will have more ammo, assuming his type of macro-economist has the better theory -and the evidence so far indicates that he does.

So what is up with these mainstream macro guys anyway? No guts no glory. Scenarios, scnenarios, conditional forecasts about the future, now! I have 75% to 90% confidence that if we had mainstream scenarios, in a year I would be jumping all over this blog saying "told you! told you! hahaha!" Those are good enough odds for me to decide who to vote for this fall.

Steve's ingenious but, honest I think, question deserves a little more attention.
He asks about what it's like to be one of those "unemployed".
Most of us hit this stat like a temperature gauge --not too personal. And so it's natural that, bakho and maybe jml, can cite instances derived from the BLS(?) on how these folks live. Drugs, theft, sponging, panhandling...
A source probably understating the economic reality, but Steve, I don't think, was after this stuff, facts that (usually) anne might supply (eg 1 in 4 blacks between the ages of 16 and 24 is incarcerated).
For some, it is ( and should be more of) a personal issue. We have just been laid off or know of someone who has just lost her job. For more of us it's a looming prospect and unless you've just cashed in your stock options, you are worried that your next job may have less benefits, poorer pay and even less job security.
So what's it like to be unemployed ( underemployed?) Get it straight from the horse's mouth: Ask the panhandlers. Take a food donation to your favourite shelter and see how it's going.
It's probably not well reported in your local newspapers.
Like here.

AB, you must have missed the last couple of Brinker's shows. He has been reading O'Neil's and Phillip's books on Bush and has been critical of Administration economic policy. What I wonder is why Kudlow was his stand-in. Bob is off quite a bit but I've never heard anyone but Flannigan fill in. love to have been a fly on that wall.

calmo accused me of having facts on what happens to those who are long term unemployed.

I state categorically that I have no facts or stats at all, and cannot find them. There must be a longitudinal survey of households that will give some information on this. Sometimes I have the horrid notion that I've heard about one that keeps track of this but have forgotten it.

Everything I've said on this issue is from stuff prof D, or anne, have posted on this blog. For college, I am spend part of my time teaching these people, and I to hire people to work on research projects, so I know a little about this from my own experience. For K-12, it is just my anecdotal experience from friends kids whose school programs are being cut, or who find the fees too steep to continue participating.

But I have no source of facts for this but wish I did. (That was a muted cry for help from any labor macro people visiting this blog.)

Why isn't Holtz-Eakin as well known as the Kud? I mena, there he goes again, being honest...

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/09/politics/09BUDG.html

Republican Members of Congress are finding it necessary to "repudiate" Holtz-Eakin's latest report on trade restrictions - too pro-trade.

If you are unemployed adult family man you live off your assets, worry a lot, work hard at finding a job, and watch you expectations fade away untill you finally get something that is a big step down from where you were.

when I started my own business 17 years ago my son, a high school junior was strongly opposed to the idea. I told him either I will make enough that his college costs would not be a problem or
we would be so poor he would have no problem getting a scholarship. We ended up in the middle, made enough to send him to his college of choice but it was tight and I still have a morgage because of paying kids tutition.

You are correct, I left out a biggie, the local food pantry. Demands for services from food pantries has gone through the roof. Did I mention max out your credit card, refinance your house (to live off the assets). Default on your mortgage (Did I mention that the mfg state of IN leads the nation in bankruptcies?). Get a "loan" from your rich uncle. Incarceration rate has not changed, but that is still an option. Soup kitchens. Homeless shelters. Stop paying child support (another biggie). Sell magazine subscriptions. Sell stuff at flea markets. Dumpster diving. It is not pretty.

Seriously, in the US, the safety net contains such large holes that jobs are the only real options. This is why Clinton was so popular. Jobs were plentiful then. Politicians that have never been unemployed or have excessive assets for between jobs don't understand this.

"the entrepreneurial army of self-employed and independent contractors who have gone to work at lower tax rates..."

Rabbits for pets or food, anyone?

Charlie Cook, who I usually think of as leaning moderate/Republican has very interesting observations on employment and the Bush "jobs program".

"Americans have never associated tax cuts with job creation, which is one reason why voters have been unimpressed with Bush's efforts to address the jobless problem, as demonstrated in the March 1-3 Associated Press/Ipsos Public Affairs poll that showed that 53 percent of the 771 registered voters sampled disapproved of his handling of the economy, while 45 percent approved. The poll had a 3.5 percent error margin.

Without a significant improvement in the jobs picture between now and November, Bush's re-election hopes will be considerably darker than they are today."

AND

"In December, the CEO of a California-based high tech firm told me that "there is no amount of overtime that we will not pay, there is no level of temporary services that we will not use, there is no level of outsourcing or offshoring that we will not do, in order to prevent us from having to hire one new, permanent worker in the U.S." As I travel around the country, meeting with business leaders, I hear similar, though less succinct thoughts in almost every sector and every part of the country. U.S. wages, health care, and other benefit costs have gotten so high -- and the press by investors for high stock prices is so great -- that the premium is on wringing every last bit of work out of as few employees as possible, to do anything but incur the costs of adding permanent employees."

Is the answer national health care? Maybe Hillary was correct.

http://nationaljournal.com/members/buzz/2004/races/030904.htm

More from Charlie Cook:

"The New York Fed study showed that during the twin economic downturns of the mid-1970s, 49 percent of the job losses were cyclical -- or temporary job losses -- such as letting a shift go at the plant. Meanwhile, 51 percent of the job losses were structural, permanent job losses. The study went on to show that during the next downturn -- in 1981 and 1982 -- the percentages were exactly the same, 49 percent were cyclical, 51 percent were structural. The 1991-92 downturn was somewhat different, with only 43 percent of the job losses cyclical, and 57 percent structural.

What about this downturn? A measly 21 percent of the job losses are cyclical ones, while a whopping 79 percent are structural, permanent job losses. Why is this bad? It's bad because we know that it always takes longer to create a brand new job than it takes to call a shift back at the plant."

In summary:
High relative cost of US Workers.
US workers cost more because health care costs more.
US corporations are hiring as last resort, making structural changes as first resort.
Tax cuts are providing the investment dollars to make structural changes.
And the Bush administration is clueless as to why the jobs numbers are so bad.
Bush apologists like Kudlow are delusional. Jobs? Jobs are plentiful!

FYI, Bush campaign chairman Marc Racicot climbed on the Household Survey bandwagon this morning in an interview on the Imus show. Unfortunately, Don didn't have a clue as to what he was talking about, so his claim went unchallenged...

"94.4 percent of the labor force has a job. Who will they vote for and why?"

Tbrosz, are you comment-spamming? I've read that comment 3-4 times here.

No one's been too impressed any of the times, either.

Thanks Mike for stealing my post. But here is a better one. This post, http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_buzzcharts/bowyer200403050905.asp, on National Review was worst than Kudlow's because this guy is trying to say that the household numbers are correct. I sent him Greenspan's quote concerning payroll vs household. No reply as of yet. Surprise, surprise.

I also wrote that National Review was simply a spin shop, and that they have lost any claim to intellectual integrity.

Kudlow takes the "over".

From Martin Huchison:

The optimism before Friday's report was truly startling -- many commentators explained carefully to their readers that actually the consensus estimate for job gains (128,000, according to Thomson FirstCall) was far too conservative, and the real figure would be well over 200,000, signaling the reality of an economy roaring back to life. As Larry Kudlow, chief economist of Bear Stearns wrote in National Review on Thursday: "Before the December and January jobs reports, I took the 'over' in the pre-announcement betting. ... Fearlessly, I'll take the "over" again."

Martin Hutchinson asks: "Gee, Larry, let me know where I can get some of this action. For the 40 months that I have been writing this column, Kudlow has consistently taken the "over" on every economic statistic. On employment, he's been right maybe 3 times."

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040305-050436-1180r

Barron's published a study of the household survey several years ago, mentioned by Alan Abelson in his column in the most recent edition.

Abelson notes that the most recent bad employment news did not mention that survey, as it showed a decline of 265000 jobs. He describes the Barron's article as saying that the methodology of the household survey I "shaky, even flaky".

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