Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

Yes Roach advocated interest rate increases in his earlier piece but at least this one makes sense - a lot of sense.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/08/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm

Money magazine on this as well.

Roach is clearly insisting to make a point.

But Roach also makes the point, rather backhandedly, that the Fed has no control over the path of transmission. Are not financial asset prices a natural transmission mechanism for monetary stimulus? And if the monetary stimulus has not done what it is aimed at doing, do we surrender our goals because the mechanism worries us? The Fed is set on accommodating growth till growth reaches the point that job creation resumes a normal course. The Fed identifies inflation in consumer goods and services as the other target, the one that cannot be allowed to get out of its cage while job growth is pursued. Greenspan has explicitly rejected asset price control as a goal of Fed policy. Only in the sense that asset prices are part of the broader macroeconomic puzzle do they enter into the Fed's thinking, according to Fed officials. No Roach, like many others, wants the Fed to make asset price management part of its explicit set of primary goals. Certainly, the argument is worth making, but that does not mean the Fed should necessarily heed that argument. The job of creating jobs is not done, inflation is still on the floor. Investors have the ability to check on price/earnings ratios and relative returns between stocks and bonds, domestic and foreign, to think things through and take care of themselves. If that is not always easy, well who said it should be?

"Investors have the ability to check on price/earnings ratios and relative returns between stocks and bonds, domestic and foreign, to think things through and take care of themselves. If that is not always easy, well who said it should be?"

Translation:

"Pilot! Sir! We are plummeting from thirty thousand feet."

"Relax, you are a primate, you have millions of years of evolution to develop the ability to fall from trees. This is just gravity, it hasn't changed in millions of years."

What I think Mr. Roach has in mind is that the Fed should get to draw all the supply and demand curves.

Unfortunately for him, the way this country works is the Fed only gets to set one lousy interest rate and the rest of the decisions are left to individuals.

What I really want to know is, do people like Roach when faced with low asset prices and high inflation demand easing to normalize asset prices? Unlikely I think.

Roach is trapped. He realizes the game is over and that shortly the millions of unemployed/low employed are going to be very politically active in ways far from the best interests of his clients. He understands the only solution is the fed printing money, which is going to kill his firm and his firm's clients. Thus the split presentation. For the good of my clients, raise rates ("and let them eat cake"). For my own good, "print money (lots of it)".

In his prior article at Morgan Stanley he emphasized the difference in philosophy between the Federal Reserve cutting the interest rate to almost nothing, and the European Central Bank maintaining their rates at 3% when faced with similar scenarios. The difference in philosophy apparently largely lies in the fact that the ECB has decided that asset price bubbles are a really bad thing to create, perhaps even more so than giving a weak economy a needed stimulus. As Roach rightly points out, history will record the eventual results of theses two differing philosophical views. It should be interesting to watch. Any predictions from the more learned crowd out there?

In his prior article at Morgan Stanley he emphasized the difference in philosophy between the Federal Reserve cutting the interest rate to almost nothing, and the European Central Bank maintaining their rates at 3% when faced with similar scenarios. The difference in philosophy apparently largely lies in the fact that the ECB has decided that asset price bubbles are a really bad thing to create, perhaps even more so than not giving a weak economy a needed stimulus. As Roach rightly points out, history will record the eventual results of theses two differing philosophical views. It should be interesting to watch. Any predictions from the more learned crowd out there?

That is why it is called a "monetary policy bind". Monetary policy can do one thing, but not two. In 1998, we had a monetary policy bind - the fed had to ease to deal with the global financial crisis, and tighten to deal with the US equity bubble. It could not do both.

This is why it is essential to get fiscal policy working again in the US, as it has not for almost 20 years. It is essential to replace a corrupt Republican party with a sensible one, so that there can be sensible debate over fiscal priorities, rather than the current scorched earth smear politics which they have used to corrupt the constitution and damage the economic engine which provides American prosperity.

Sorry about the double post. The wording was wrong the first time, so I tried to undo the damage but it was already too late...

Could the Fed raise interest rates to 3% and not affect the employment rate?? The models that tie interest rates to employment do so because job creation depends on availability of investment capital. However, our current job shortage is not for a lack of investment capital, but for lack of demand. Credit card debt is only loosly tied to Fed rates so a rise to 3% might not affect a lot of borrowing. With inflation at very low rates, this would be a powerful incentive to move money out of stock and into other investments.

I agree with Stirling. Fiscal policy in the US has been out of whack since 1982.

The way I see it the grand experiment is failing. The deflationary forces in the labor market cannot be meaningfully impacted by monetary policy. If anything the labor market is getting worse, considering it still is bleeding jobs despite robust underlying growth. The question now is does greenspan continue 'full bore ahead damn the asset bubbles lets see what it takes to force hiring' or does he pull back to protect the now vulnerable economy from the affects of another asset bubble? I think this is Roachs point, and he is voting for the 2nd option.

Roach is not a bad guy, and he's a good analyst who has called a lot of things correctly. He's right - there are no good choices right now - we have to choose, again, between the lesser of two evils.

I think, bakho, that the answer to your question relies on the answer to this question: if the Fed raises the interest rate to 3% what does it do to the housing and mortgage markets?

If it hurts them badly, it'll cost jobs.

Immediate increase to 3%? There'll be a lot of blood on the bond-trading floor...

I'd agree with Roach that the steady leadership of the ECB will ultimately be given much higher marks than the Greenspan era at the Fed. But I'd give this to Greenspan: he has managed to roll over problems created in the Clinton era to the Bush Presidency, and now possibly from the Bush Presidency to the Kerry Administration. So when (well ok, if) the sh** finally hits the fan, people are going to be confused who other than Greenspan was responsible and sanction the wrong people.

I agree with Ian --the housing industry takes it on the nose ( and what's a bloody nose for a big strong guy? Or is it a knock-out punch?)
What if it's a temp hike?
Let's go with SR and presume nothing less than a 2% jump. Come on, let's invert AG with his "for a considerable time" and plant a " for a cautionary period". So those of us carrying hammers to the job can not only check the weather each day but the financial page to see if it's likely the project is still viable.

bahko writes
"Credit card debt is only loosly tied to Fed rates so a rise to 3% might not affect a lot of borrowing."
Can you imagine the impact this hike would have on Fannie and Freddie? IMHO, both SR and AG are trying to reign in this monster and without much success. Because of the political obstacles here, SR has opted for the hike. AG must feel like SR is doing his job for him. Maybe that explains why AG has been such a loose canon lately.

we have to choose, again, between the lesser of two evils

printing money is no more "evil" than raising interest rates. it just depends on whose ox is getting gored.

this time around, its going to be the bondholders

the Whole World depends on the American consumer and Greenspan is going to do everything to make sure the Bunny keeps running and running and running.

Lots of bad things go back to 1982 including the beginning of the major deviations of actual inflation from nominal inflation in order to accomadate fiscal, monetary, and corporate policies. Let's assume for a moment that the employment growth deficit is mostly structural. If the Fed raises interest rates, it pops the bubble in asset prices now. There is another recession, but there is an opportunity for employment restructuring. The results of that are in political and private hands, not central bank hands.

If the Fed doesn't raise interest rates, the asset bubble keeps inflating and the eventual crunch get's worse and possible threatens hyper stagflation if dollar hegemony collapses and normally anti-correlated markets like the stock and bond markets become correlated. At that point, a firesale may happen, and trust me no one here wants spiraling asset deflation while commidity inflation hits at the same time.

The choice is pretty simple. Since Greenspan can clearly not count on responsible economic leadership from Bush or to a lesser extent from Kerry, he has to raise interest rates now and pay the price while it is still bearable. There are signs that the system is already destabilizing, achieving high beta. There's no way that hoping for Kerry with his waffling, faced by a Republican Congress, and likely to be elected without an overwhelming public mandate is likely to be able to reverse this in time.

I'm still voting for the guy come November, but that doesn't fool me into thinking that he would be a great President or at least great enough to fix what is coming down the pipe here. There is no real choice. Yet Greenspan will dither. He has always won before by betting that he could suppress the forces of destabilization and defer a reckoning. Ironically, his very success will lead him to failure here. It's too much even for him. At least his fall will be tragic, compared the pathetic limping and fumbling of Bush43's Administration.

Roach is just kidding to get attention. He is not actually wrestling with "big" thoughts. Good one, though. Has you guys going.

The Fed surrendered the option of half measures when it committed to crowding in a mortgage credit boom to replace the demand lost from the collapse of the equity bubble. A tightening at this stage, before hiring has even gained traction, would risk pushing the economy into recession, burdened not just by a high level of household debt but more importantly by a dependence on a rapid FLOW of household credit.

To tighten now would be analogous to a motorcycle jumper tapping the brakes just before leaving the ramp.

"To tighten now would be analogous to a motorcycle jumper tapping the brakes just before leaving the ramp."

The analogy only works if you believe that brakes cause you to go slower (I think this is the widely held view).

As far as I an tell, Roach believes instead that while flooring the accelerator might appear to the casual observer to be what is needed for this trick, if you don't tap the brakes before leaving the ramp you risk suddenly dropping out of the sky at the peak of the jump.

In his world, stop means go and go means stop. It might make some sense to me if he was just kidding to get attention. But there are and have been plenty of people who believe stuff like this for real, and occasionally such people have found themselves in power and would have you believe the mess which you correctly predict would happen is really the mess that refreshes.

The bubble everyone is talking about may be over.
the NASDAQ was at 2008 yesterday vs. 2003 at year end. It looks like the market is starting to sniff-out a significant slowing of capital spending and the overall economy.In my industry models I moved out of IT over the last several months and have moved into defensive stocks you buy when you expect hard times like drugs and this move over the past several months seems to be working. Shift in marginal growth rates away from tech and weak new tech orders is what is driving these moves. For example, drugs are now outperforming for the first time in 2.5 years.

The stock market move over the last year-and a -half has not been a bubble according to the S&P 500. the S&P 500 PE on trailing operating earnings at the bottom was some 19, about the same as it is now. The entire move in the S&P 500 from the market bottom was driven by earnings, not rising PEs. that is very unusual for the first year of a bull market, but it does not make it a bubble. A bubble is a rise in valuation not justified by fundamentals. The facts about the S&P move this cycle just do not justify calling it a bubble. This is not to say that the NASDAQ move was justified by fundamentals.

If Roach is making the reload argument, that the Fed can send interest rates back up without dragging down the economy, then he is really arguing that the Fed has very little real monetary leverage in the 1-3% range.

I agree that the biggest effect would be on housing. Credit card debt would be affected only to the extent that people use mortgages to refinance their credit cards. A lot of people have not can not for a variety of reasons. A big announced hike in interest rates would cause an immediate scramble to lock in mortgage rates. However, what were mortgage rates the last time the prime was at 3%? 6-7%? Certainly it would not bring back the over 10% rates of Carter and Reagan. The entire Clinton 90s boom never saw home mortgage rates at less than 6-7%. Certainly, it would slow things down, but not kill the housing market altogether.

OTOH, a hike in interest rates would put more money in the hands of the poor to middle class elderly who tend to have more of their money in interest bearing deposits. At 1% why have money in a savings accout or CD at all?

I do not have the PE on the NASDAQ but the PE for the S&P technology composite is about 25 on expected 2004 operating earnings. That does not
look like a bubble to me. A little expensive or overvalued, but not a bubble.

A Taylor rule analysis says fed funds should be at 3%. Based on this I have heard several Fed speaker imply they think they could raise rates back to 3% without it being a tightening move.

They seem to believe that a move back to 3% would not do significant damage but are in no hurry to find out if that judgement is correct.

"I'd agree with Roach that the steady leadership of the ECB will ultimately be given much higher marks than the Greenspan era at the Fed. But I'd give this to Greenspan: he has managed to roll over problems created in the Clinton era to the Bush Presidency, and now possibly from the Bush Presidency to the Kerry Administration. So when (well ok, if) the sh** finally hits the fan, people are going to be confused who other than Greenspan was responsible and sanction the wrong people."

Posted by: Andrew Boucher on March 8, 2004 10:16 PM

It's amazing how the genius of Greenspan (credited by many Republicans for the 90's boom) doesn't look so good with a Republican president.

I wonder if, fifty years down the road, serious economic historians might decide that Greenspan was mostly just along for the ride.

Moe Levine: "it just depends on whose ox is getting gored. this time around, its going to be the bondholders"

For some perspective: how about all those people who bust their butt daily at work and put themselves through the commute?

Surely Greenspan will not raise interest rates
before the election?! Recall that lately he
has been seen reading Ayn Rand in the bath
again.

"The job of creating jobs is not done, inflation is still on the floor. Investors have the ability to check on price/earnings ratios and relative returns between stocks and bonds, domestic and foreign, to think things through and take care of themselves. If that is not always easy, well who said it should be?"

Perfect! The trailing p/e for the S&P excluding losses was 20.8 on February 27. With losses the p/e was 23.2. This hardly seems bubbly, just fairly priced. Earnings have risen as fast as stock prices for 15 months, so I find no problem.

Roach ought to stop looking in the rear-view mirror and start looking forward.

With the very brief exception of July 2003, mortgage rates have returned to their lows. We're only another 30-50 bp away from another refi boom of meaningful proportions. If it happens, that will likely produce another volatile combustion between mortgages and the ten-year that could shoot rates much lower for a while.

Good for demand, good for the economy, good for jobs and nothing to do with Greenspan. Keep your eye on mortgage rates, that's my advice.

There is little danger in holding corporate or municipal bond funds with a 5 year duration. After all, bond investors have been through a terrific bull market so a price decline in bonds after such a run should not be a problem. There is minimal general inflation and a poor labor market, so why should investors who have held bonds for several years think there is a bond bubble? Of course, bonds are expensive by standards of the last 20 years. But, expensive assets are cause for regulation of asset prices or too much alarm.

So based upon Spencer's reasoned (and very convincing) analysis, it looks like there is no Wall Street bubble right now. The national housing market is only slightly up, and probably wouldn't be hurt too much from an ammunition reload to 3%. Some regional markets (Southern California in particular comes to mind) are probably more overvalued and might suffer a modest readjustment with higher mortgage rates, but nothing likely too dramatic. So why not bring up the prime rate to 2 or 3%?

The reason not to raise the federal funds rate is that it will slow economic growth and add to labor market problems. Steve Roach complains about poor job growth, but appears to always wish to add to poor job growth. How can rising interest rates possibly help those who need work or those who need wage and benefit raises?

My sense is that a rise in the federal funds rate to 3% would lead to a recession several months later. This would be an absurd move, for the sake of a few fretting bubblists.

PIMCO's McCulley: http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/FF/2004/ff_mar_04.htm

"America is dependent upon the kindness of strangers, who might not always be kind, so Americans should get their collective financial houses in order. Preemptive Calvinism, if you will.

"I'm not a buyer of this line of reasoning, for a simple reason: the global economy has massively unused and underutilized resources, particularly human resources. Accordingly, the world faces no danger whatsoever of corrosive inflation – too much money chasing too few goods. On the contrary, the dominant risk scenario in the global economy is too many goods chasing too few buyers.

"As long as this is the dominant risk case, there is no rational limit to foreign central banks' ability to buy dollars... [esp if private foreign investors aren't]"

Basically he's saying that the massive influx of people into the capitalist system (about half the world over the last two decades, China, India, Russia et al) without concomitant movement of those people (human capital as it were) to A) where they're most productive and B) where their utility is maximized, then in the absence of a "free market in passports," it's the gov't's prerogative to affect their 'collective' preferences as best it can, e.g. thru monetary policy.

So in short the US should continue to pursue a weak dollar policy as long as it's non-inflationary (don't have to raise rates), which it has been and likely will continue to be. This is the best analysis yet that I've seen for the dollar-deficit connection and Roach's "imbalances," so if you're interested read the whole thing.

non ( and not noticeably non) economist writes
" So based upon Spencer's reasoned (and very convincing) analysis, it looks like there is no Wall Street bubble right now."
So Mr Buffet is wrong to have pulled his money out of the stock market? And those insiders ( CEOs and ilk)that are selling rather than buying are just misinformed? The insider sell/buy ratio is something over 40:1.
If the economy was as healthy as Spencer makes out , Greenspan would have boosted interest rates without Roach badgering him to do so.
But it ain't.
Even Roach knows that this 2% hike is a real risk. Pricking the asset bubble is supposed to reallocate resources to...? Nanotechnology, Medicine, Pharmaceuticals, infrastructure,...
Anything but yet another over-sized ridiculously high priced house. Not too convincing to me yet.

What we're really seeing here is a shifting of the American standard of living overseas. When there are a billion and a quarter people in China and a billion and a half in India are willing to do the work Americans do for one tenth the price, the only outcome is lower wages and lower living standards here.

What's really frightening is that we're not preparing for this change by finding things that Americans and only Americans can do better than anyone. Instead we're borrowing like crazy to keep living like we want and expect to. But eventually we'll be hit with a big, and potentially empire-ending double-whammy: Massive debt and no growing American economy to help pay our way out of it.

IMO globally ultimately things will sort themselves out after foreign economies wean themselves off the American spending machine and develop local demand. But in America, it's hard to see how we're not in deep deep trouble. We'll have spent the money, but there's no clear way to pay it back. In America this may mean bank collapses as non-performing mortgages overwhelm the system, the interest rate spike that everyone knows is coming at us from all directions, and a collapsed dollar and its effect on import prices, particularly energy.

I expect at some point we're going to have to endure some very low living standards until things are rebalanced.

The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because people still believe "this is America, we'll sort it out" so they're supporting asset prices, out of debt kept cheap by Asian currency market actions and Greenspan fighting deflation. But as Warren Buffett points out "Give me a trillion dollars and I'll throw you a heck of a party too". Won't the debt eventually crush us back to reality? Are we somehow immune?

What am I missing here?

Everyone is born with genius, but most people only keep it a few minutes.

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