Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

I can't be positve, because I didn't look that closely at the WaPo front page when I went to the site the first time. When I went back to the site a couple hours later, I'm almost positive they changed their headline for this story to moderate the bad news for shrub.

This sort of crap used to infuriate me because I thought that it mattered. Now I know, it doesn't. In fact, I think that this is one of the most entertaining aspects of the building landslide.

The fact that the press, is in denial. Utter astonishment actually that their boy isn't any longer a "popular president". It really is quite funny.

Elvis Costello: "I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused"

I swear the lower this guy drops the greater the dissonance between reality and the crap that the media conglomerates are trying to feed us. At some point, and we are just about there now, it slides into the realm of self parody. Not only has Bush destroyed his credibility, but Viacom, and GE, Time Warner and Disney seem absolutely dedicated to following the fucker off the cliff. Priceless!

Irritating as it is, I think we want our candidate to be percieved as the underdog going in. If the story ran with headlines like, "Kerry opening up can of whup-ass on Bush," we'd all have a good cheer, and a lot of undecideds would tune out, because the narrative lacks tension. Bush might start to get greater and more sympathetic media attention. And then we'd be right back where we started, with the "Invincible president" script.

No, I say, let the media whores have their tension, let the White House be quietly rattled, and let our candidate go on pummelling Goliath. Better story for them, better story for us.

Brad

Don't ya think its a bit early. The voters have no idea what a JFK II Presidency would look like. The Poll is basically Dem vs. Bush. By this fall, Kerry will be exposed. His numbers are sure to drop. This country is not as liberal as Kerry and Kerry will not be able to escape his voting record. Its early days so don't get your hopes too high.

Kerry just gave a speech saying James Byrd, the black man killed by three white men by dragging him behind a pich-up truck in Texas, was killed because he was gay. Its also been reported that the group of 9/11 families crying wolf over Bush's campaign adds are part of a peacenik non-profit that received donations from Mrs. JFK II. His campaign is untested thanks to the kooky dean, sharpton, Kookcinich campaigns along with the toothless Edwards and the labor candidate. Kerry is a fighter no doubt, but his fish out of water routine will get much play time. Gore had the same weakness: "I say anything to get elected". The gut voters, the ones ignorant of party politics, in the middle don't like people who flip/flop.

This is going to be good.

Yes indeed, it is going to be very good.

Bush can try all he wants, but these elections, when one party is already in residence, are always a referendum on the incumbant. The democratic candidate in this case matters very little unless he does something utterly stupid. People will go into the voting booth and make their decision based on their perception of the performance of the Bush administration. This is a stone cold fact that should strike fear into the heart of all Republicans. The perception of this administration as a failure, isn't something that is going to be turned around by tv ads. Nor is it going to be changed by anything their lackeys invent about John Kerry.

So Bush has a site somewhere that tracks Kerry's "flip-flops". Reader TK probably spent three seconds coming up with this list of Bush flip flops. It's not like they're hard to find:
Bush is against campaign finance reform; then he's for it.

Bush is against a Homeland Security Department; then he's for it.

Bush is against a 9/11 commission; then he's for it.

Bush is against an Iraq WMD investigation; then he's for it.

Bush is against nation building; then he's for it.

Bush is against deficits; then he's for them.

Bush is for free trade; then he's for tariffs on steel; then he's against them again.

Bush is against the U.S. taking a role in the Israeli Palestinian conflict; then he pushes for a "road map" and a Palestinian State.

Bush is for states right to decide on gay marriage, then he is for changing the constitution.

Bush first says he'll provide money for first responders (fire, police, emergency), then he doesn't.

Bush first says that 'help is on the way' to the military ... then he cuts benefits

Bush-"The most important thing is for us to find Osama bin Laden. Bush-"I don't know where he is. I have no idea and I really don't care.

Bush claims to be in favor of the environment and then secretly starts drilling on Padre Island.

Bush talks about helping education and increases mandates while cutting funding.

Bush first says the U.S. won't negotiate with North Korea. Now he will

Bush goes to Bob Jones University. Then say's he shouldn't have.

Bush said he would demand a U.N. Security Council vote on whether to sanction military action against Iraq. Later Bush announced he would not call for a vote

Bush said the "mission accomplished" banner was put up by the sailors.  Bush later admits it was his advance team.

Bush was for fingerprinting and photographing Mexicans who enter the US. Bush after meeting with Pres. Fox, he's against it.

SW, Brian, S(k)eptic
I hope you, SW, are right
"entertaining aspects of the building landslide"

although B has a point --it's early and $200M usually makes a difference. ($200M, --isn't that the figure that Gates donated to the AIDS campaign in Africa? That was a couple of months before Bush pledged anything. There are a lot of rotten things in America that need our attention but these campaign budgets are obscenely rotten.)

So I have a different take on "This is going to be good." It's going to be a piss poor use of $200M.

Septic
..."Kerry opening up can of whup-ass on Bush," we'd all have a good cheer, and a lot of undecideds would tune out, because the narrative lacks tension.
Or is it the other way --that a lot of depressed/resigned turn out to Make Sure the bum is outa here?
Lastly, this is the first mention I've seen of Nader on this site. If we had any balls we'd be doing better, no?

People will NOT tune out if Kerry looks to be whuppin' Bush, for the simple reason that Bush will be fighting back like a cornered animal, as JOsh Marshall puts it.
It's already happening. The Republicans are insinuating that Kerry is a North Korean agent.

I haven't decided whether that charge has any merit yet.. but I think he might be a bit tall to be a north korean.

Actually this is really bad news for an incumbent. The polls among "likely" voters tend to lean Republican as oppossed to those among "registered voters. Second, likey voters know the incumbent and the numbers don't necessarilly get better. It is because independents in the past (like Dole v. Clinton) tend to break the other way.

Lawrence,
JOsh Marshall remarked that this poll is very unusual because the a higher proportion of Dems are likely voters than Republicans.
The Democrats are exceptionally motivated to vote this idiot out of office---much more than the Republicans are motivated to keep this idiot in office for four more mind-numbing, wallet-stretching years.

Brian: "Kerry just gave a speech saying James Byrd, the black man killed by three white men by dragging him behind a pich-up truck in Texas, was killed because he was gay."

The hell he did. He gave a speech in Texas (reported by the NY Times) in which he responded to a black questioner insisting that gay rights "is not really a civil rights issue" by pointing out that there is a direct analogy between James Byrd's murder because he was black and Matthew Shepard's murder because he was gay -- but committed a slip of the tongue during his sentence to that effect and said that Byrd was "gay" instead of "black". If occasional slips of the tongue are an indication of disqualification for high office, God help Bush.

Ann Arbor News (Knight-Ridder) Mar 7 headline:

"U-M Consumer Index Rises"

Second paragraph sourced to CNN/Money:

"The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for February jumped to a revised 94.4 from 103.8 in January, according to market sources quoted by Reuters."

Apparently the "jumped" is actually based on info in the 3rd paragraph where it says "economists, on average, expected a reading of 94, compared with an initial reading of 93.1, according to Briefing.com" But, it came out 94.4! Woo Hoo!

And, the remaining 9 paragraphs report various dropping indices.

I think this is actually an ad for a newspaper-sponsored job fair, though they don't say so and it's layed out like a news article. But even as an ad it's absurdly dishonest and if CNN really wrote "jumped to 94.4 from 103.8" that's got to be the winner for language toturosity. (See, I can play along.)

Mr. President my income jumped to zero figures from six. Please, please accept my grateful thanks because I really appreciate how you've brought integrity back to the Whitehouse & our country's newspapers.

For once, the CNN article *does* bear out its headline; more say they'll vote for Kerry than for Bush, but 54% (or so, I'm not looking at the page) say they think Bush will be elected anyway. Dem Despair.

Regarding the GOP's attacks on Kerry and how it's currently being weighed by mainstream media, I believe the ball game is now. I hope it's a matter of Kerry winning big or Kerry winning small, but it could be more dicey if the GOP is successful in getting the Press to, like last time, buy into & sell their stories. If they don't get buy-in this month on the "Kerry is inconsistent" theme I doubt they'll get a second chance. "Kerry is liberal" is a weak backup plan because they've muddled the whole liberal-conservative equation. After that the GOP's got nothing but bad news--Plame, Clark, Kean, jobs-- coming their way, regardless of the headlines, all year long.

Let's hope that Kerry stays on message (he seems to be doing well on this score recently)and that the 6 to 8 percent gap holds. The longer it does, the more likely it is that the RNC will thrash around and do something really lethal to themselves. Bush has never been tested. He apparently flies off the handle when challenged. I think the Kerry campaign knows this, and are taking the fight to him for that reason. At some point the emperor is going to have to come out into the open, no clothes and all.

>>Gore had the same weakness: "I say anything to get elected". The gut voters, the ones ignorant of party politics, in the middle don't like people who flip/flop.<<

Brian, this doesn't even pass the giggle test (paraphrasing Hesiod). Do you pretend not to recall that Mr. Bush ran on pro-trade, foreign policy humility platform??? Not to mention his self-labelling as a compassionate conservative... Did he mean compassionate towards conservatives, or what? Oh, and now that I think about it, he also campained on being a uniter (of white Christian heterosexuals perhaps?) and promised to be a stop to Washington partisanship. Bwa Ha Ha Ha Ha! And the best one is that he said he doesn't want to pass on problems to future generations. No Social Security, no problem, I guess. So, please, cut your flip-flop line unless you're ok making a fool of yourself.

OT warning.
It was asked above:

$200M, --isn't that the figure that Gates donated to the AIDS campaign in Africa?

I'm pretty sure it was much higher than that. While a staunch Linux man myself, it can't be denied that Gates has done as much for African vaccination than the rest of the world combined. Which dosen't say much for the rest of the world.

"Brad

Don't ya think its a bit early. The voters have no idea what a JFK II Presidency would look like. The Poll is basically Dem vs. Bush. By this fall, Kerry will be exposed. His numbers are sure to drop. This country is not as liberal as Kerry and Kerry will not be able to escape his voting record. Its early days so don't get your hopes too high."

Posted by: Brian on March 8, 2004 09:14 PM

Uh, Brian, the point of Josh's article was that the headline was in contradiction to the poll results. Josh did put in a disclaimer that this is a poll several months before the election, and so is of low reliability. But the point of the article was the contradiction.

"Andy" has it correct, I think: the mixed news is that majorities (1) preferred Kerry and (2) expected Bush to win. Depending on whose theory you believe, the latter could be bad news for Kerry.

Nevertheless, CNN has now changed its headline to "Kerry leads Bush in new poll," with sub-headline, "But most voters think president will be re-elected." Better.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/03/08/elect04.prez.poll/index.html

Let's see, he's tall and thin, he's a combat veteran, he starred in a movie, and he has imaginary friends. Could it be Jimmy Stewart has been reincarnated?

-----------quote----------
Kerry said he had received words of encouragement from leaders abroad who were eager to see him defeat Bush on Nov. 2.

"I've met foreign leaders who can't go out and say this publicly, but boy they look at you and say, 'You've got to win this, you've got to beat this guy, we need a new policy,' things like that," he said.
--------endquote------------

Now, speaking of bad headlines, the Times had a pretty good story about how the Bush administration is adding fewer Superfund sites to the National Priority List than past administrations. AP runs a related story under this headline: "EPA Seeks to Expand Toxic Waste Cleanup." Umm, it depends on what the meaning of "expand" is.

Aw, Patrick, are you pissed again? I can imagine what it's like to have reality intrude on your TANG fantasies.

Personally, I'm just thrilled that you can take some valuable time off of your busy 'Bush Boom' business day, to entertain us. A businessman like yourself (what is it you do?) knows that time is money.

Bruce, I say Kerry said Byrd was gay. You say "The hell he did."

You then go on to say Kerry "committed a slip of the tongue during his sentence to that effect and said that Byrd was "gay" instead of "black".

Thank You Bruce for confirming my account. Your hypocrisy is only surpassed by your ability to torture the truth. Contradictions are a virtue of the left. Bruce and the Dem party are like a hand in glove.

Jean-phi...oh hell the frenchman

You say of Bush "And the best one is that he said he doesn't want to pass on problems to future generations. No Social Security, no problem, I guess."

You need to check out the SS threads to get the party line. Krugman says SS is fine so you should say SS in fine. Remember Bush wants to privatize SS because it is a train wreck. The left automatically takes the opposite point of view and claims the "special" treasury bonds are good as gold. That is right from Brad DeLong.
What's wrong J-P not paying attention in class. If that's the "best" one you must have flunked indoctrination.

SW I can't wait to get the records out into the open. I'm on record as criticizing politicians of both parties for gaming the public on SS and other issues. I've also said several times the Commander -in-Chief has particuliarly moral obligations to spend defense $ today so that the mililtary is ready to fight future conflicts. Your "list" just shows Bush is an ameteur next to Kerry's record of flip-flops. Kerry's record forshadows a horrific Presidency IF the public can be buffalo'd into electing this charlatan.

Barry you say "Josh did put in a disclaimer that this is a poll several months before the election, and so is of low reliability."

Well Barry couldn't Rep. take heart in a bad showing in a low reliability poll. Especially if the article had put such polls in the context of other elections when the ultimate loser often is shown winning in polls taken well before the election. Barry I understand Brad's post. Do you understand why Brad's and Josh's incredulity are misplaced?

Brad,

Continuing our shared war on the working press:

The Globe and Mail has an AP feed this morning that is so outrageous that my brain has shut down on the subject rather than remember it.

(I know this leaves me open to a Patrick Sullivan remark: your brain shuts down often, doesn't it, David?)

The most common cause of bankruptcies is the confusion of assets with liabilities. This morning's Globe reports on Eugene Melnyck, the generics billionnaire who is suffering from the erosion of his first-starter advantage and his perceived personal magnetism, is up the creek because of some $60 million he "expended" on research.

Hell, it's obviously a capital expenditure, and if his cash flow is sound Bob's yer uncle.

If the research turns up nothing, you write it off down the line as an expense. D'oh.

* * *
In related news, the Quebec police this morning raided a church where some Algerian agitator was holed up, after losing all his US and Canadian appeals against being sent back to the murderous thugs -- on both sides -- in his home country.

Can't we just have an agreement that the power of the State is limited. Churches trump local cops.

Is that so difficult to understand?

-dlj.

Uh, Brian. (People seem to have to say that a lot.) My point (read the Times story) is that Kerry clearly MEANT to say that Byrd was black, not "gay", because in that sentence he was drawing an analogy between Byrd's murder and Andrew Shepard's to point out to a black woman opposed to gay rights that there is a direct analogy between civil-rights issues for the two groups:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/08/politics/campaign/08KERR.html

Now, when Kerry starts regularly saying things like "I know how hard it is to put food on your family" and "America is where our wings take dream" -- THEN it will be time to worry about his brains.

Oh boy. Great campaign slogan. "Vote for Bush, he isn't as bad as Kerry"

Yeah that's gonna drive them to the polls! Get a grip. people will cast their votes based on their perception of the success or failure of the incumbant. All the opo-research and distortions you can generate won't change that fact. The Bush administration by every available measure is a MISERABLE FAILURE.

That is what is going to elect John Kerry in November.

Of course this would actually be a good thing for principled Republicans. It would give then the opportunity to take their party back from these charlatans. And if they still control congress, it will be pretty easy to make the case that all the Bush chickens coming home to roost in the next several years are actually President Kerry's fault.

Bruce

I've never been accused of a total contradiction within a span of three sentences. Of course, logic does not count for much aroung here.

I should cut the Boston ketchup magnate some slack its not often he comes into contact with the multiple groups he must pander to. He should know better than to mix them. Although for the man who wants to be known as the second black president and the second JFK, it seems a funny mistake to make.

If you ever agree with me Bruce then I'll do some serious self evaluation.

So, did you actually read the NY Times article, Brian? It's awfully clear as to what happened there. Even you might be able to understand it.

SW writes
"...what is going to elect John Kerry in November."

There are some people that don't recognize the MISERABLE FAILURE of Bush's administration. And more people that can and will be persuaded by the $200M campaign. Yes, not the brightest lights in the house but voters nonetheless.
It'll be poor and declining job prospects that elect Kerry. Maybe as early as June IMO, when the re-fi market has not given the consumer some ammo, it'll be clear that Kerry has a landslide.

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