Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

How is outsourcing good for our future?

Can you provide a pithy (100 words or less) explanation of why outsourcing is good for us, an explanation that will make sense to people who are in danger of losing their jobs to India or China? An explanation that will make sense to people who are only planning to work, say, 10 more years until retirement?

I haven't yet read one, and I certainly haven't heard one on radio or TV (where most messages are distilled to a short soundbite).

Look at the steel tariffs. We were importing cheap steel and our steel parts mfg were competitive. Bush slapped on steel tariffs. Suddenly, it was less expensive for steel parts manufacturers to buy parts made overseas from cheap steel than to make them in the US themselves. So they laid off their production workers and became distributers of foreign made parts. High steel prices in the US made concrete, plastics and other alternatives to steel more competitive. So the net affect of the steel tariffs and keeping a few more steel production jobs in the US was to cause massive job loss in steel parts mfg and loss of market share for steel to alternative materials. Then it turns out the tariffs were illegal and had to be dropped anyway. So we are back to competing with foreign, cheap steel, but now there is even less domestic demand and manufacturing workers are out of jobs that are not coming back.

As for the steel workers that got to keep their jobs or people in danger of losing jobs to outsourcing, the economic changes suck. However, protecting YOUR job means that many others will lose their jobs and in the end, your job will be lost anyway. Jobs are never permanent.

Workers always need to be on top of trends and ready to retrain. Government should be there to ease the transition of displaced workers whether it is help with retraining costs, extended unemployment, etc. Being pissed about losing your job is not effective. Workers need to be pissed at this administration and this Congress for not addressing the needs of the American workforce. They should be held accountable for failing to extend unemployment and failing to provide training for dislocated workers. It needs to be a partnership where workers are given the resources to better their training and learn skills demanded by employers. Well trained employees are a huge benefit to employers. They should be willing to bear at least part of the cost of that training through taxes, etc. Workers should not have to do all the work and pay all the taxes and not get enough rewards.

The problem with Brad's theory is that Bush is NOT pleasing the Republican base. They are as unhappy with much of what he is doing as the left is (although perhaps for different reasons). The truth is that Bush's actions are, in many cases, utterly inexplicable in any political model.

Addressing the outsourcing issue head on is not in the Bush lexicon. Addressing outsourcing head on would mean: providing additional help to unemployed workers which this administration and this GOP Congress has only done begrudgingly if at all. It would mean a legitimate effort to contain health care insurance costs to make new hires less expensive. But that won't happen because this president and this GOP Congress have already broke the piggy bank to enact prescription drug legislation that is very efficient at transferring our tax dollars to drug companies, but very ineffective in reducing health care or insurance costs. This administration is preoccupied with supplying its campaign contributors with perks and easy money. The easy money is our tax dollars and it comes at a price. That price is the cost of not addressing structural problems that are a drag on employment.

So is Murray suggesting that Bush rescind is tax cuts and start investing in the workforce? Or is he saying that Mr Bush should continue on his merry course of stiffing the displaced workers and telling them they are bad lazy people if they don't suck it up?

Actually the White House is on both sides of this issue. Have Snow take the populist position, tell Dr. Mankiw he can say what he truly believes, and then a few weeks down the road, Rove and Cheney will do Electoral College calculus to figure out which position buys them the most votes.

Vicki -- no one can provide a good explanation as to why it would is good for the individuals that lose their jobs to offshoring.

Everyone agrees that trade, like technology advancement creates winners and losers.
The main reason our standard of living is higher now than it was 25 to 50 years ago is that we are
not working at the same jobs as we were 25-50 years ago. Twenty five years ago the job of programmer, for example, was just starting to come into existence. IT employment rose from about 4 million in 1990 to 5.5 M in 2000 and down to 4.5 M now. But if you went back to 1975 virtually none of those 4 to 5 million IT jobs existed.
Moreover, most of that 0.5M job loss was due to the dot.com bust, not outsourcing. these jobs included computer training,electronic repair & maintenance,internet publishing & broadcasting,
Telecommunication,search portal & data processing.

But the resources for the jobs had to come from somewhere. Because they were high productivity and high paying jobs they pulled these people from
other less productive jobs. If we still had the same job structure as 25 years ago when these jobs did not exist our standard of living would be lower.

Off-shoring is related to productivity. The jobs that go overseas are generally jobs with lower productivity. Note, in manufacturing textiles and shoes have gone overseas but auto jobs have not .
Actually we are seeing insourcing of auto jobs from Japan and Germay. Capitalism, free markets is often described as creative destruction as one set of jobs are destroyed and another created. The way most productivity gains are achieved is shifting resources from low productivity production to high productivity production.
What is the difference between a store clerk losing their job because of advances in scaning technology that makes retail workers more productive and a call center job being sent to India? In both cases, what the system is doing is destroying low productivity jobs and freeing the resources to go into more productive jobs that can pay a higher salary. The problem is that
the person that loses the old low output jobs is usually not the same person that gains the new more producive job. The 55 year old New England textile mill foreman that lost his job never got another good job. But because New England developed new industries his kid probably got a much better job than the foreman lost. Think of what New England would be like if being a mill foreman was still a great high paying job.

I see the current problem with off-shoring as the symptom not the disease. Financial institutions have been sending back office jobs to Ireland for over a decade and the ammount of offshoring in Ireland is about the same as in India. but you never heard anyone complaining about sending jobs to Ireland. The reason is that it occured in the 1990s when the economy and job market was strong
so the people displaced could easily get a new job. Now, the job market is weak so the person being displaced can not easily find a new job.
But if you look at the current situation. By historic standards we should be creating 2 to 3
million jobs a year. Right now offshoring is probably responsible for about 500,000 jobs being lost. This implies that we are losing 2 to 2.5 million jobs to productivity gains from technology. So offshoring may be responsible for
20% to 25% of the job weakness while technology -- productivity --is responsible for 75% to 80% of the job weakness. But I do not hear anyone saying we should stop having technology advances even though it does cause people to lose jobs.

Odd shoring is the symptom not the disease. The disease is the weak economy that stem from two main sources. One the aftermath of the dot.com boom when we over invested in technology so we now
have exces technology capacity so we are not expanding capacity. But that capacity expansion was responsible for much of the gain in IT jobs in the 1990s from 4M to 5.5M jobs. the second disease is the very poor economic stimulous from the Bush tax cuts. Very little of the tax cuts went to moderate income people that would spend it, rather it is going to high income people that will more likely just lend the money back to the govt to finance the defict. It is a closed loop.
Note how the economy responded last summer when the small portion of the Bush tax cut that went to moderate income people lead to them going out and spenting it.

I know this is not a short pithly statement. But as Thomas Jefferson said, please excuse the lenth of this letter, if I had more time I would have sent you a shorter letter.

"The problem with Brad's theory is that Bush is NOT pleasing the Republican base."

Evidence?

Bakho:
Re your comments on steel prices: I work in the commercial construction industry, and let me tell you that since the tarriffs were repealed, the price of finished product has gone through the roof. The price of finished metal stud framing is up 100% over a year ago March. Suppliers are telling us to expect price increases of 20% per month for the next 3 months. We can't even get a quote on projects that won't come on line until the end of this year, beginning of next year.Something very odd is happening here. We've been told that the problem is twofold: the Chinese are buying up all the worlds supply of scrap iron, and the weak dollar is driving up the cost for domestic manufacturers. This is in spite of the fact that domestic production is still well below maximum capacity utilization. If demand for product continues to rise, pricing will continue to follow. Anyone have any insight on this?

Spencer: Thanks for your explanation. It's not possible to pithily explain why outsourcing is good for us, so I don't expect anybody to do it.

I guess I don't accept one of your premises: that our standard of living is higher than it used to be. Or rather, I accept that our standard of living is higher, but our quality of life is lower. I'd like to go back to the past when people had more job security. Personally, I've never equated standard of living with how many TVs a household has (but I know others do). I don't even have automatic door locks for my car, and yet I think I have a high quality of life (except for chronic job insecurity).

Also, I don't think it's valid to compare the outsourcing that went to Ireland in the 1990s with what's happening in India today. For example, didn't the Irish people who benefited from the outsourced jobs have salaries that were relatively comparable to American salaries? There wasn't a wholesale "let's go to the lowest common denominator in a big way" back then. American companies were just getting their toes wet in outsourcing high-paid white-collar jobs. If they had just stuck with what was going on in Ireland, we wouldn't be so upset.

Steel prices- One of the reasons why Bush invoked steel tariffs was to give American steel time to restructure. It has done so with consolidation among many of the dinosaur steel mfg. This has caused some reduction in capacity. Similar restructuring has occurred throughout the world and the glut of steel has recently ended. There is a huge current demand for steel in China (they have to do something with their trade deficit) and yes they are competing for scrap and driving price increases. Scrap steel that used to sell for $60 per ton is now selling at $300 per ton. This has everything to do with supply and demand in the scrap market and little to do with steel tariffs. Chinese currency is tied to the US dollar, so the weak dollar is not to blame. Many kinds of steel can be made more cheaply from reprocessed scrap than by processiing raw materials. Reinforcing steel, that has a higher scrap content has increased in price by about 70% compared to only 30% for structural steel. While steel prices have been increasing very rapidly, they still have not returned to the high prices seen in the late 1990s. The argument (more or less) is that steel prices plunged to unsustainably low prices in 2002 and they are rapidly returning to more "normal" prices. The plunge in price was due to a glut of steel on the world market. As the world has worked its way through the glut and the weakest links no longer producing steel, we are swinging in the other direction that places steel in (at least temporary) short supply. The housing boom has driven up lumber prices, with some types of lumber doubling in price and leaving a lot of room for price increases in structural steel. In other words, increases in metal stud prices are not going to cause switching to wood because lumber prices are rising even faster than steel. The current forecast is for structural steel prices to continue to rise through the first part of 04 and fall in the second half of the year.

So yes, demand in China for steel scrap is now affecting prices for structural metal here in the US. The Chinese want automobiles, too. There is a limited supply of scrap. The price of high quality steel that is less dependent on scrap is less affected, but also rising due to demands for raw materials.

My comments on the steel tariffs refer to the period between 2001 and the recent lifting of the steel tariffs. Prices have only been soaring since December. So now steel price differentials are longer a factor in offshoring steel parts production, but the mfg jobs already left and they are not coming back.

Sure, outsourcing is good, other things being equal; but usually they're not. What does Brad think of Jack Beatty in the current Atlantic? I'd like to see James Surieweski on this too.

http://www.theatlantic.com/unbound/polipro/pp2004-02-25.htm

Maybe we need a reading list beginning Stiglitz.

Outsourcing would be good if it led to better aggregate performance (say, in terms of GDP growth) -- which it might actually do -- and if we had an economic system in which the distribution of the gains made were such that even the people losing jobs were likely to see a net benefit from those gains, if not in the short term, at least over their lifetime.

"George W. Bush and company are not on the right side of the outsourcing debate. Greg Mankiw is on the right side. But the rest of them are desperate not to be on the right side."
~~~

We can note the growing number of former Clinton people who are desparate not to be on the right side of this debate too.

Erskine Bowles in Carolina, for one. He's been happy to say his switch from pro-fast track to anti-NAFTA, anti-all former Clinton trade policy isn't a mere expedient sacrifice of principle for the purpose of gaining votes, but a personal evolution as he has learned more about the subject. (Guess he didn't learn so much during all that time in the White House.)

After all, as Keynes said, when you learn more you change your mind. What else?

If jobs are never permanent, and people in their 40s and 50s must be prepared to lose everything at a moment's notice, then people in their 20s and 30s should be forewarned: Don't get married, don't acquire a mortgage, don't have children and, above all, save all the money you can in a mattress because if you don't, you'll be in the same lousy, hopeless boat as your parents in another 20 years. Mark Twain--who said you can't build much of an economy by having everyone take in everyone else's laundry. You could update that by noting that not everyone can retrain himself to be a CEO, or a Wal-Mart greeter, for that matter. By the way, globalization is not inevitable. It's cyclical. It has come and gone many times in human history.

If the economy is not growing fast enough to create enough jobs to replace those being outsourced then outsourcing is probably bad for the (US) economy. When the theory of compative advantage was created a very important caveat was put on it - as long as capital is not particularly mobile. That is no longer the case. Everyone assumes that capital is reallocated within the US - but often enough it isn't.

And at the heart of all this is the frazzled, in debt, American consumer - expected to consume even more and more even as there are less and less jobs, even as more and more money flows away from the middle and lower classes to the rich.

Who are all those outsourced call centers, manufacturing jobs and so on going to sell to - when the end of the credit binge comes?

We have to pull out of this goddamned endless jobless "recovery" into a real and strong recovery and we have to do it soon. This cannot go on forever - as Krugman is fond of saying, things that can't go on forever - don't.

" Maybe we need a reading list beginning Stiglitz."

I suggest beginning with Russell Roberts', "The Choice: A Fable of Free Trade and Protectionism", in which most of the concerns of Vicki are addressed. And in a most charming way:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0130870528/qid=1078855563/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/104-3726567-0611106

As one reviewer describes it:

------------quote-----------------
In The Choice, Roberts borrows from Capra's "It's A Wonderful Life" to introduce his protagonist Ed Johnson to alternate worlds where free trade
does and does not exist. Instead of Clarence the Angel, Ed is led around by David Ricardo, the economist who developed the Law of Comparative
Advantages, which forms the foundations for supporting global free trade.

Throughout the novel, Ed raises questions based on his traditional thinking on protectionsim. Ricardo addresses each key concern in turn. The concepts debated include: loss of jobs, loss of our nation's economic status, national security needs, etc. More importantly, Ricardo convinvingly makes the point that total national economic self-sufficiency is a recipe for
economic disaster/failure.

I found this to be an entertaining way to learn more about the debate on free trade and protectionism. This novel is easily more enjoyable than the typical economics text or article, and hence its message was delivered more
effectively.
-------------endquote-------------

While I generally admire Brad DeLong, I have to wonder if his enthusiam for outsourcing would wane just a bit if his own job were subject to export.

Funny how those most eager to promote "free trade" always seem to be the ones whose own jobs aren't at risk.

It would be great if Brad could comment on the crux of what the Atlantic Monthly editorial states. My guess is that since the US was vast, and trade costs were high, that tariffs were not a significant hinderance nor help to the US economy in the 1800s:

Keeping American jobs in America was the goal of trade policy from 1789 to 1933. Its instrument was the protective tariff, the most successful economic strategy in U.S. history.

People who argue that large-scale outsourcing isn't a problem while simultaneously arguing that we need government programs (retraining, etc.) to cushion the blow of outsourcing are not thinking clearly. Even if the political will was there to fund these mythical retraining programs, it's unclear that the economic benefit of such programs would offset their cost.

Into what fields would workers be retrained? What is the likelihood that retrained workers would find jobs and remain employed in these new fields long enough to recover the costs invested in their training, and in all the ancillary support programs they needed (wage support, health insurance, etc.) while being retrained?

It's refreshing to see reputable economists like Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley finally begin to question the blind orthodoxy on outsourcing. The global labor arbitrage game will exert significant deflationary pressure on our economy. That there will be any net benefit to our economy from large-scale outsourcing is far from clear.

There is a flaw in the logic in these arguments.

IT DOES NOT FOLLOW that because new jobs came along in the past, other new jobs will come along to replace the jobs lost to technology and offshoring. And it does not follow that increased education will assist our workers -- it is the higher educated workers here who are having the problem finding jobs now!

Also, IT DOES NOT FOLLOW that because the economy benefits from increased productivity, AVERAGE people benefit at all. This is the old "Bill Gates walks into a room" averages problem. If the income and wealth is being concentrated to the top - and it is - that throws the theory that we all benefit out the window. In fact, they are using the offshoring to bust the remaining unions and other leverage that workers have had that helped lead to those increased benefits that we all shared in the past.

Solutions from the past are not necessarily solutions for the present, just because they worked in the past. For example, in the past we were able to isolate our labor markets from world unemployment. But now we have telecommunications to India and free trade with China so our labor force is exposed to their unemployment, and in China's case, to their repressive policies.

Average people are not benefiting at all. In fact, average people are losing healt insurance, pensions - even Social Security might be cut next - and income is stagnant. They are running up their credit cards and mortgages.

So IN THEORY it might be good to send our jobs overseas. But IN PRACTICE it is not turning out so well.

Would anyone care to mention a manufactured item that can be (is) manufactured in the US at lower cost than in India or China? Would you also perhaps provide us with a list of services not requiring physical presence in the US that cannot be offered at lower cost from India or China than in the US?

The entire basis of the argument for comparitive advantage is based on the assumption that such things exist.

One of the problems with the arguments made by 'Free Trade' advocates these days is that they assume our economic system is still one in which individual countries trade on the basis of factor endowments and comparative advantages.

Unfortunately, with the removal of barriers to trade, finance and communication, we are essentially merging our labor markets. American productivity and technical know-how is being used to set up facilities in low-wage countries. In a completely globalized world, there is no reason (other than shipping costs) to have an automobile factory in Michigan paying good wages to American workers. The same factory, with the same capital equipment and operating procedures can be set up in China and run for a fraction of the cost.

With hundreds of millions of unemployed Chinese and Indian workers increasingly integrated into the global job market, will there be any reason not to use low wage foreign workers? In China, your workers can't unionize, they're well-educated, and your plant can pollute freely.

If we truly merge our labor markets and allow our corporations to freely utilize what is essentially slave labor, we are going to erode the bargaining power of our working population and destroy the broad advances in living and working conditions that were so hard won in the 20th century.

FRee trade = Ponzi scheme

Eli, the argument for comparative advantage does not depend on the idea that there have to be some things that can be done more cheaply in the U.S. than in India or China. In fact, the whole point of the theory of comparative advantage is that even if India can do everything more cheaply than the U.S., it still pays for it to specialize in those things that it can do relatively more cheaply, and let the U.S. do the rest.

Ian, although Ricardo's original model of comparative advantage did assume a world in which capital was immobile, it's long since been demonstrated that the theory applies even in a world of perfect capital mobility. Essentially any introductory text on international trade will show this.

Aurelian, American productivity is vastly higher than Chinese or Indian productivity. That means, on average, an American worker produces vastly more with his or her labor than an Indian or Chinese worker does. This imaginary globalized world in which all countries are equally productive does not exist. And if there ever does come a day when China and India are as productive as the U.S., that will be a good thing, because it will mean that Chinese and Indian workers will be very well-paid, just as Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese workers are now.

Barry, I would be very surprised if Stiglitz were against free trade. Certainly none of his academic work leans in that direction, and even his attacks on globalization have, in general, refrained from even rhetorical support for protectionism.

Rather than Outsourcing being a "Problem That Must Be Stopped", isn't it more likely an indicator that the cost of doing a certain business is too high?

Is a stump speech that advocates artificial barriers to deflect the indicator a warning of either the candidate's venal lust for power or his obtuseness?

So Steve, we now assume that there is nothing country B can manufacture more cheaply than country A, and in fact there is no service (excluding personal physical contact) that is cheaper in B than A.

Assume further that the bulk of the difference is wage levels. Given the mobility of capital and technology not a bad set of assumptions.

Let's go still a step further towards the current situation. Assume the population of country A is ten times that of B (India + China, vs US and Europe). Tell me why there will be anything left over to be done in B absent trade restrictions. The capacity of A to sell to B as long as B can pay more than the consumers of A is essentially unlimited.

This is especially true if B is willing to sell technology to A and invest capital. That wipes out any productivity advantage B has.

What do the people in country B do to earn a living? Does the theory of competitive advantage mean that wage levels in B have to sink to that in A.

The classical choice is that B hands over all built up capital, devlaues its currency, exports beef absent BSE, and sinks into Argentinan levels of unemployment and debt. Enjoy

Steve, you overestimate the productivity advantage of American workers.

American GDP per worker in 2002 was $71,600 and the average wage $36000. In contrast, Chinese manufacturing output per worker was $2,885, with an average annual manufacturing wage of $498. (Yes, I'm comparing apples and oranges here -- any meaningful comparison of worker productivity must exclude the vast majority of Chinese who survive by pre-industrial style subsistance farming.) Clearly Chinese workers are a far better value on a unit of production basis. The reason that they're being paid so little has nothing to do with their supposed "lower productivity" -- the fact is that they're more productive than American workers.

To put this in a more practical perspective, one of my clients recently completed a private investment in a manufacturing facility in Dongguan. The factory has on-site dormitories; workers commute to the factory from outside townships and stay on-site five days a week. The inherent productivity advantages of this kind of arrangement are obvious, and it's unlikely American workers will have a prayer of competing.

Outsourcing as a reason for job loss is overblown. NAFTA as an issue is way overblown. The net impact of NAFTA is not large compared to the economy. Jobs are also lost to improved technology but I don't hear people say we should quit making better computers. Where is the government investment in alternate energy? Where is the money to the states to reduce class size and expand kindergarten and truly leave no child behind? Where is the money to improve infrastructure? Roads? Water? Sewers?

What we have is a failure of government to adequately invest in our deteriorating infrastructure- failure to utilize excess workers to build for the future. If a quarter of the $400+ billion deficit spending were used to create jobs we could meet the Bush projections for job growth this year. Instead we give tax cuts to the wealthy who buy foreign bonds to take advantage of the declining dollar.

Eli, you've looked at all the assumptions you've tossed into the mix, all of which are questionable. "Excluding personal physical contact": well, a high percentage of service jobs seem to require (or at least consumers seem to like) personal contact. So all those jobs will still be done in B.

I'm not sure what the "bulk of the difference" means, but I'll assume you mean the bulk of the difference between China/India and the U.S. The difference in wages between those countries is a direct result of the difference in productivity between those countries. In your account, Chinese and Indian workers are as productive as American workers. This is not even close to being true. And the more productive foreign workers become, the more they will get paid.

"Mobility of capital and technology": This is said so cavalierly as to suggest you have no idea what's entailed in actually setting up a factory or a business, either at home or in a foreign company. Capital is certainly perfectly mobile in terms of its ability to move in and out of stocks and bonds. But foreign direct investment is another matter. That's a complicated and often difficult process. If it isn't, why there are still auto factories in the U.S.? Why, in fact, has the U.S. been a net importer of auto-industry jobs over the past decade?

Your picture of population A (India + China) is bizarre: apparently these people just work all day, buy nothing with their wages, and have no interest in getting paid more as they become more productive. None of these things are true. As more capital is invested in these countries, and as they become more productive, their wages will rise (as is already happening), diminishing the gap between them and the U.S., creating new markets for American goods, creating new markets for themselves, etc. Just look at Korea and Japan.

It's not the theory of competitive advantage. It's the theory of comparative advantage.

Steve, what is bizarre about, for example, assuming that X-Rays can be evaluated elsewhere than where they are read, and I presume you have heard about telemedicine. If, for example a great plains town loses its only physician, services can be provided by a nurse with a video link to the nearest large city. What is the additional cost of a link to say Madras?

I see nothing bizarre about my assumption. What is bizarre is your assumption that US consumers value personal contact above cost. The history of American retailing is that as a group folk in the US value low cost much more than personal contact, which is regarded as nice, but not worth that much. Expertise is completely discounted. Try and find someone to help you in a department store who knows what they are doing for example, let alone Target or Walmart.

Productivity today is mostly a product of technical means. Given equivalent levels of investment in equipment, factories (for a high tech example fabs) in China are just as productive as those in the US. If you don't think so, have a talk with Intel. Why do you think production of such technologically advanced products as hard disks has completely migrated off shore?

If you are averaging across the economy of China, then of course productivity will be lower, but if you compare industry to industry, it will not be.
Some time ago I toured a sewing machine factory in Germany, and was shown automated machinery for sewing garments. It didn't matter where the machinery was installed, and operators needed minimal training. Productivity was 90%+ determined by the machines. The company was willing to stock spare parts anywhere in the world.

As to the US and the auto industry, the US is a low (labor) cost environment compared to Europe and Japan with weaker unions. I suggest you factor that in.

I have heard about telemedicine. I've heard about, but I've never seen it, because pretty much everyone I know prefers to talk to a doctor in person. The point isn't that some jobs won't be outsourced. The point is that a huge number of jobs will continue to be done in the U.S. because that's the place they can best be done. In your original post, you painted a picture of no jobs being done by Americans. But most of the jobs Americans do are not exposed to global competition or the threat of outsourcing.

As for the auto industry, why is the relevant comparison between Europe/Japan and the U.S.? I understand that's why those jobs initially migrated here, but according to your model (according to which capital simply skips acrosst the waves), why haven't they left already to China or some other low-wage country?

I'm also baffled by your interpretation of the German sewing factory. If a factory is automated, it must require relatively little labor. On the one hand, this must mean that if the factory goes abroad, it won't cost many jobs. On the other hand, it must also mean that labor costs are a very small part of the overall cost of the product, meaning that it may very well not be cost-effective to dismantle and rebuild a factory six thousand miles away.

Alan, I don't know why you're calling Chinese workers' lower productivity "supposed." Your statistics show that an American worker (and if that includes service workers, then you're really making an apples-to-oranges comparison) is rougly 25 times more productive than a Chinese worker. Do you really think it's a coincidence that the Chinese worker is paid so much less? If you look at American history, increases in worker compensation track increases in productivity almost exactly. The same is true of countries like Japan and Korea. There is no reason to think that things will be different in China or India. It is true that Chinese workers are, despite their much lower productivity, often a better value on a per-unit basis, but as their wages rise, etc., that advantage will shrink.

Postings by Alan Young, Dave Johnson and Eli Rabett are lucid, not locked into any orthodoxy and are much appreciated by this reader.

Compared to the shrill politized rants by some people on both sides (including, surprisingly, DeLong himself) they are a breath of fresh air.

A minor point to pick with Eli Rabett: productivity impacted in a major way by a country's legal environment (property rights, contract law, etc) and physical infrastructure (power, water, transportation). Lack of even one of these ingredients reduces country to a sad pile of dung. Look at Africa.

A minor point to pick with Eli Rabett: productivity impacted in a major way by a country's legal environment (property rights, contract law, etc) and physical infrastructure (power, water, transportation). Lack of even one of these ingredients reduces country to a sad pile of dung. Look at Africa.

Brad DeLong writes:

--
To paraphrase John DiIulio Paul O'Neill, the attitude among the Mayberry Machiavellis inside the White House is, "Who the hell knows, and you can find an 'expert' to say anything, so let's do whatever pleases the base."
--

How proposing an amnesty by other name for 11 million illegals and opening US labor market to all workers in the world is pleasing The Base?

The base is boiling over GWB immigration proposals. If Bush , hopefully, loses it will be because of the base sitting on its hands because of immigration issue.

Does DeLong ever listening to the local right-wing call-in talk shows?

I'm detecting the lump of labor fallacy here...the idea that the economy is a fixed box and if one of 10 jobs goes overseas, it will remain forever vacant. You're losing sight of the fact that economies grow as a result of world trade.

Look at the data. During the 1970s, the era of the "Japanese juggernaut" when autos and steel were screaming for protection and voluntary restraint agreements were in place, the US trade deficit went from $1B surplus to a $24B deficit. Clearly jobs were lost, right? Wrong. Civilian employment rose from 79 million to 99 million. Well perhaps that import threat wasn't big enough. Look at the 80s when Japan was joined by those "4 Asian Tigers" to make massive inroads into the US economy. The trade defict zoomed from $24B to $81B, nearly quadrupling. Jobs must have been lost in that one, right? Wrong. Civilian employment rose from the 99 million to 117 million. Then came China and India and NAFTA in the 1990s. The US deficit skyrocketed from that $81B to $250B. Surely employment fell in that environment. Nope, it rose from 117 to 133 million.

How can that be? Because economies grow as a result of international trade. In fact it's Stephen Roach, that global labor arbitrage maven, who pointed out that 1/3 of world GDP growth since 1975 is attributable to the growth in world trade. US exports rose from $57B in 1970 to $989B in 1999...a seventeen-fold increase. What international trade grows is wealthier customers. I doubt there's anyone who would argue that it's easier to sell to poorer customers than wealthier ones.

For those who argue, yeah but what about the 00s, what about what's happening now, I specifically looked at longer term intervals because IMO much of this outsourcing issue is a result of misattributing what is really a cyclical problem...insufficient demand...for a structural issue...growth in global trade. The decade long data avoids the cycle and reveals the underlying trend of export growth and job growth that results from global trade.

My apologies in advance to data purists...the data are from an older publication and don't reflect the latest revisions, though they are close enough for argument's sake.

xyzzy writes:

"I'm detecting the lump of labor fallacy here"

yes, and the usual confusion between comperative
and absolute advantage, and the wrong headed
"but capital is mobile" argument, and the "if
economists' jobs were outsourced they wouldn't
support free trade" ad hominen fallacy, and
the "race to the bottom" fallacy, and most of
the other culprits...

Someone really needs to write up a faq on
"common fallacies in arguments over free trade"
(Krugman's done it but it's book-length. We need
a primer)

There's two (economic) arguments against
trade/outsourcing: the terms of trade argument
and the infant industry argument (the Atlantic
Monthly argument indirectly alludes to this one,
though it is also filled with a bunch of crap).
That's it. Neither have much support in empirical
work in this day and age. And strangely neither is
commonly evoked in popular discussions on trade.
Rather the usual muddled thinking above.

The issue of distribution of course is also
important but then one should be honest and say
"i don't like free trade because i think some
people (in this case college educated computer
programmers) are more important than others
(American consumers of computer products and
foreign computer programmers)" rather then turning
logical samersaults.

Radek writes:

--
one should be honest and say
"i don't like free trade because i think some
people (in this case college educated computer
programmers) are more important than others
(American consumers of computer products and
foreign computer programmers)"
--

Radek is honest enough to say that he kindly allows college educated outsourced Americans to pay for his education at state supported USDavis and at the same time he doesn't give a flying intercourse about them.

But wait, he didn't admit that, did he?

did I mention the ad hominen argument in my post
above? I'm pretty sure I did...

"The entire basis of the argument for comparitive advantage is based on the assumption that such things exist."

This is a false statement, and by that I mean it is in the same category of falsehood as "2+2=5".

There are lots of arguments against free trade you can advance that do not require you to believe in such blatant fallacies. Is it too much to ask that people actually learn the meaning of the concept of comparative advantage before making pronouncements upon it?

"Radek is honest enough to say that he kindly allows college educated outsourced Americans to pay for his education at state supported USDavis and at the same time he doesn't give a flying intercourse about them.

But wait, he didn't admit that, did he?"

This coming from the same guy who just five-ish posts earlier thought he could call out ppl for their shrill, politicized rants?

Dumb.

sjpencer wrote:

"The main reason our standard of living is higher now than it was 25 to 50 years ago is that we are
not working at the same jobs as we were 25-50 years ago."

I remember a job I had as a part-time dishwasher 38 years ago at the minimum wage of $1.65 per hour. I cried when I saw my first paycheck. When I recalculate that in today's dollars (using this site http://eh.net/hmit/) it comes out to $9.42 per hour.

Similarly, when I began as an apprentice carpenter in 1968, my pay was $4.55 per hour. In today's dollars that is the same as $23.50 per hour.

Journeymen are lucky to make half that nowadays.

HOW CAN YOU SAY OUR STANDARD OF LIVING IS HIGHER NOW THAN IT USED TO BE?

A stable political and legal environment is obviously very important to investment decision and production. OTOH, for investment, the emphasis is on stable, not democratic as China and Indonesia show(ed).

I did not mean to imply that this was not the case, and apologies to Mick and Steve if I did.

As to the auto industry in China, wait.

Also, concerning free trade theory:

Anyone who thinks Ricardo is the last word in the free trade debate needs an introduction to neoclassical economics.

True, the neoclassical revolution came late to the theory of international trade -- it still hadn't made it into Samuelson's text in 1965 -- and there is some question whether most contemporary economists (I'm not sure about DeLong) have grasped the gist of it yet.

For if they had, they'd know full-well that, without redistribution of the economic pie, in a world of populous poor countries like China and India, free trade is a ruinous proposition for the 80 percent+ of American workers who depend on wages and salaries for their livlihoods.

If there are any reputable economists on this site who would care to dispute this point, I am willing to deposit $1000 in escrow for the purposes of a bet.

Our point of reference will be, not a person, but the classic text "World Trade and Payments" by Caves and Jones. Direct quotations only are allowed as argument -- of reasonable brevity -- with readers of this blog to decide the winner.

Any takers out there?

"And if there ever does come a day when China and India are as productive as the U.S., that will be a good thing, because it will mean that Chinese and Indian workers will be very well-paid, just as Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese workers are now. "

What is this NONSENSE?!

HELLO: THERE ARE 200 MILLION UNEMPLOYED IN CHINA AND THEY ARE NOT ALLOWED TO UNIONIZE! Don't you get it? They are NEVER going to be highly paid. A few people are going to keep the profits to themselves!

"US exports rose from $57B in 1970 to $989B in 1999...a seventeen-fold increase. What international trade grows is wealthier customers."

Wealthier?

And what happened to the median income during that period?

And what happened to pensions, health insurance, retirement age, hours worked, and so many other measures of what WE (average Maericans) get out of our jobs and our economy?

The lump of labor fallacy?

Is that the one where you hit a man upside the head with a club, thus raising a lump, and at the same time giving him the motivation to get off his ass and do what you tell him to?

"But, mastah, I thought the job was done!"

Butlers, maids, tutors, gardeners -- the potential for future employment in the "help" industry looks infinite!

Dave, don't you get it? Chinese people are no different from Americans, British, Koreans, Japanese, etc. If their work is producing massive profits for their employers, they will eventually demand -- and get -- a significant share of those profits.

I'm also perplexed by this assumption that businesses in China are somehow not competing amongst themselves for workers, a competition that inevitably works to raise wages. Most Chinese factories, contrary to Eli's suggestions, are still relatively labor-intensive. That means that even if the work is simple, the quality of the worker -- his/her diligence, skill, intelligence, attention to detail, willingness to show up to work -- matters. Chinese companies are no different from companies everywhere else: they want better workers than their competitors. To get them, they have to pay higher wages. They also know about efficiency wages: the more you pay workers, the more reliable they tend to be. Henry Ford didn't decide to pay his workers $5 a day because of union pressure or because he wanted people to buy his cars. He did it -- and he did it even though there were tens of thousands of people who were willing to work in his factories for almost nothing -- because he knew that it would cut turnover, increase productivity, and attract higher-caliber workers. Those same pressures are at work in China and India, too. This isn't a matter of theory. Just look at the numbers, and at how China's per capita income has risen in the last decade.

"HOW CAN YOU SAY OUR STANDARD OF LIVING IS HIGHER NOW THAN IT USED TO BE?"

Per capita personal consumption expenditures in constant chained 2000 dollars, from the NIPA accounts:

1953 7,932
1963 9,412
1973 13,371
1983 15,656
1993 19,593
2003 25,295

Of course, I would never claim that such data should carry more evidential weight than others' powerful rhetoric and personal anecdotes.

When all is said and done there are just three things we in US do better that anybody in the world: killing, pop culture and lawsuits. Free trade will ensure that every nation does what it does best: Chinese will produce electronics, Indians will do IT and we will kill people, produce pop songs and movies and sue each other and everybody else.

As for things that the U.S. does really well, I would add that we sell financial debt instruments really well. That seems to be our primary export. The U.S. does a really good job of selling government debt. We also do a really good job at "selling" the consumer debt that goes to buy our imports.

Unfortunately, not everyone can have a job in the financial industries.

Aurelian: I thought to list exporting capital as one of the things US does really well but decided not to since US is a net importer of the capital. When Chinese goverment invests US dollars earned from selling Chinese-produced goods abroad into US Treasuries it achieves multiple goals - pacifying US Goverment, keeping the exchange rate on target etc. What it has nothing to do with is non-existing "investment into American growth engine". The only place America "grows" into for the last 3 years is internal redistributional effects from the real estate bubble and the derivative construction boom.

Right. When interest rates are kept low as a result of all that capital flowing into the country it does nothing for investment at all. In fact, I'm sure that even if Treasuries were at 8%, we'd have the same level of business investment that we do now.

How can you seriously make this argument?

Steve: You assume that if Chinese, Japanese etc. stop buying, nothing else would change so the interest rate would rise. You are wrong. The exchange rate would drop, the interest rate would rise a little and the Goverment would be forced to stop running deficits (as in, repeal some of the tax cuts).
What our Goverment does is borrow abroad and use the money to finance its fiscal irresponsibility, including tax cuts for the rich. That kind of Goverment really deserves to be drowned in the bathtub.

What a terrific series of comments. This has to be the most interesting set I've seen here yet.

For what it's worth, I'm with bakho. We have a standard of living absolutely dependent on an energy source that has finite availability. Where's the public investment in alternative energy sources? This will create domestic jobs and, theoretically, give the domestic workforce a new area in which they enjoy an advantage over major competitors. Or am I missing something?

Consumers are commonly mentioned as the domestic beneficiary of outsourcing. That is not true.

There is no benefit (lower prices) to consumers just because of outsourcing. No firm lowers its prices just because it lowers costs (cheaper labor) - whether that labor is domestic or foreign.

Output prices are determined by the output market not because of the cost structure of a firm.

Outsourcing has no effect on prices. Assertions that prices will go down are just that. Assertions without basis. Logic to work from lower costs to lower prices requires many assumptions that are usually not true.

Actually, going from lower costs to lower prices does not really require many assumptions. It primarily requires one: that firms are competing for customers, and that competitive pressures will lead them to charge the lowest price possible that will allow them to stay in business. Under those conditions, cost savings will absolutely be passed on to the consumer. And in many, perhaps even most, markets today, those are exactly the conditions that prevail. So to a good approximation, it's perfectly reasonable to say that consumers benefit from outsourcing. Certainly they've reaped enormous benefits from the move of industries like textiles and computer parts abroad.

a, why do you think the government would be "forced to stop running deficits"? The dollar has already fallen 40%+ and it hasn't stopped the government at all. If they really stopped buying, interest rates would have to rise to lure them back.

Yoda:

As opposed to prices not rising due to expensive American wages if we did not outsource abroad?

Yoda:

As opposed to prices not rising due to expensive American wages if we did not outsource abroad?

Yoda:

As opposed to prices not rising due to expensive American wages if we did not outsource abroad?

steve: US Goverment would have to stop running the deficits precisely because continuing to run them would raise the interest rates - and in the current low-inflation jobless recovery any goverment that causes them to raise will be run out of town. Low interest rates at this point are fundamental - tax cuts are a luxury that Bush can afford because China finances them buying the Treasuries.

Bar,

Show me your logic. What assumptions are necessary to go from lower inputs (costs) to lower prices. Think it through. Do you even know what your assumptions are? Can you say non sequiter?

Steve,

"It primarily requires one: that firms are competing for customers, and that competitive pressures will lead them to charge the lowest price possible that will allow them to stay in business."

i.e. "one: (1) ...competing... , and (2) ...pressures will lead....

Good try. Unfortunately this (one - or two) assumption(s) doesn't /don't do it.
(1) competing is not sufficient
(2) assumes the end point.

Your assumptions must be much stronger.

The jump from weak competition to perfect competition and then back again to weak competition is a common mistake.

Is an approximation good enough?
that is another assumption (3) that you make.
Are most markets approximately competitive?
That is another assumption (4) that you make.

I guess your one (1,2,3,4) assumption(s) is/are enough. However, this one (1,2,3,4) is not trivial. Specifically, assumptions (3 and 4) are valid in only some markets.

yoda writes:

"Show me your logic. What assumptions are necessary to go from lower inputs (costs) to lower prices. Think it through. Do you even know what your assumptions are? Can you say non sequiter?"

Just that neither the demand curve nor the
supply curve (or the MC curve in a monopoly
situtation) are perfectly elastic.

You don't even have to assume perfect competition
or anything like that (a monopoly will also
cut its price if its costs go down)
Look it up in any introductory econ textbook.

You see yoda, to argue that lower costs don't
lead to lower input prices requires a much larger
set of assumptions then vice versa - many of these
implausible.

This is why economics is useful:
it illustrates that "intuitive" conclusions
(such as yours perhaps) are often in fact either based on faulty reasoning or some really crazy
assumptions.

Luka, I'm not going to take you up on your bet
(partly because I don't trust the impartiality
of the jury you mentioned - no offense to anyone) but I will make a trip to the library today and pick up the Caves, Frankel and Jones book since

1. I really like the work of Frankel and Jones
(though I don't know much about Caves)
2. You've touted this book before and I trust
your recommendation
but also
3. I'm curious where you're getting some of the
more extreme notions such as the one below from:

"most contemporary economists (I'm not sure about DeLong) have (not) grasped the gist of it
(neo-classical economics) yet.

For if they had, they'd know full-well that, without redistribution of the economic pie, in a world of populous poor countries like China and India, free trade is a ruinous proposition for the 80 percent+ of American workers who depend on wages and salaries for their livlihoods. "

I really really doubt this could be true, even
under HO model which you favor. Trade barriers
with some of these countries are already low and
going all the way to free trade wouldn't increase
trade volumes that much. And as it is trade is
a fairly small portion of the US economy. There's
pretty much no way that it can have a quantitative
effect on the scale you mention (ruinous for 80%+
of workers and salary men) under assumptions
extremely favorable to your point of view...

...but I'll go get that book and get back to
you.

Yoda, radek's point is the right one. (How do you explain why Wal-Mart keeps cutting costs even in markets where it's by far the dominant retailer?) And in any case, I'm not assuming my four assumptions are trivial. I'm actually not assuming anything. I'm looking at the real world -- where price increases are essentially nonexistent, where price competition is the rule, and where U.S. manufacturing profit margins are no higher today than they were in the 1960s, despite the acceleration of outsourcing and a greater reliance on foreign labor -- and recognizing that genuine competition is the rule, not the exception. (Which isn't to say there aren't exceptions, just that they're rare.)

Well Steve, I thought all those folks wanted personal service, not price cuts? Perhaps they want personal service from unpaid employees?

Assume a typical industry with 10 dominant firms.

Each firm knows its own costs, which change over time. No firm is confident that it knows the cost structure of its rivals. One firm typically leads on high quality, one firm typically leads on lower prices. The other firms are a mix in-between these two leaders. Capital costs are half ot total costs. Prices have not been driven down to marginal costs because no firm knows if it is the long term low cost leader both today and tomorrow. In, other words, a realistic industry.

Now assume that the customer service division of firm A is outsourced from the U.S. to India saving 7% of the total cost of the product. Will firm A lower its price to consumers?

Firm A knows that if it lowers prices that its competitors will match the price drop to maintain market share. The total market will increase slightly because of the slightly lower prices but this increase will be shared between all the firms who all match the price drop.

Instead of lowering prices and creating a price war, firm A could decide just to absorb the entire cost savings as profits. By doing so, Firm A assures itself of the profits from outsourcing. In contrast, if Firm A lowers its prices by the amount it saves it will forego the cost savings in exchange for its portion of the profits from the larger market and the increased chance of driving another firm out of business.

The profit at the current price are more certain and will often exceed the profit at the lower price. In these cases, Firm A will maximize its profits by deciding to keep all the savings from outsourcing instead of lowering prices to consumers.

yoda: This is the same argument as where one company discovers a new productivity-enhancing or cheaper manufacturing method and gains a "monopoly" advantage over the competition, allowing it not to share the cost reduction fully.

This sort of reasoning breaks down when the efficiency increase or cost reduction becomes available to enough players (not necessarily all).

Also there is a feedback loop -- in a competitive environment, companies always try various schemes of increasing market share, including discounts or lowering nominal price. The extent to which competitors look for cost savings is in part a function of pressures on their cost or revenue structure, i.e. they believe that either competitors have lower cost, or the customers are reluctant or unable to buy that much product.

And once the efficiency-incresing thing becomes widely known, it is figured into expectations, leading people to question your prices.

The same is true in school -- the time allocated for a math homework exercise will be cut once the state of the art goes from pen-an-paper calculus to electronic calculators. If you are the only calculator owner, you can "cheat" on the homework. Once everybody owns a calculator, the homework load will be modified to neutralize your advantage. (This is slightly different than in the economy, as the guy not owning a calculator will not be thrown out of the class/put out of business, but he may get some encouragement or assistance to get a calculator.)

cm,
You make very good classical economic arguments.

I am glad that you do not actually disagree with me. That is, in many markets, lower costs of inputs to a firm do not lead to lower prices.

You then proceed with fine arguments assuming the spread of knowledge in the long-run.

"once the efficiency-incresing thing becomes widely known..." -- i.e. in the long run aka some time in the not too obvious future.

I have no quarrel with that. Many things can happen -- in the long run.

"In the long run we are all dead." Keynes.

I am sure the "invisible hand" will have dropped prices by then.

Interesting, you argument says that prices will drop -- once even more jobs are sent over seas. That is, if the prices haven't gone down, it must be because not enough firms have lowered their costs (laid off workers in America and hired lower cost workers overseas.) All we need to do is to send more jobs overseas and then competitive pressures to lower costs will kick in. That is a great plan.

It has become clear to me. We just haven't waited long enough for the benefits of outsourcing to kick in. Funny, can't we say that about all of the current economic policies? We just haven't waited long enough for the tax cuts to do their magic. etc.

To summarize our recent experience. Outsource jobs, profits go up, prices ... uh .. no change.

To summarize the plan to reduce prices by outsourcing.

Outsource, Wait, Repeat.

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