Kash at Angry Bear takes a look at the detailed pattern of employment change by industry:
Posted by DeLong at March 9, 2004 11:38 AM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this postJob Creation and Destruction in Service Industries: Given the continued lousy state of the labor market, I wanted to know which industries are growing (in terms of numbers of workers) and which are shrinking.... My reading of the figures is that they illustrate that the weak labor market is indeed explained by the combination of technologically-based productivity improvements with weak demand. Industries with slow job growth (or job losses) seem to be those that have been intensively adopting lots of labor-saving IT in recent years, such as wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and telecoms. For obvious reasons, education and health has seen the least replacement of labor with IT, and so seeing lots of job growth in those industries is not surprising. Somewhat less obviously (at least to me), professional and business services (this category includes things like legal, engineering, administrative, advertising, management, consulting, IT and accounting services for businesses) has also been adding jobs at a rapid rate....
Professional and business services are increasing because these are being outsourced (albeit domestically) by firms with a main focus in other sectors looking to cut employees. They used to do them in house. Now they purchase the services.
Posted by: bakho on March 9, 2004 12:42 PM"...For obvious reasons, education and health has seen the least replacement of labor with IT, and so seeing lots of job growth in those industries is not surprising."
My hobby-horse: in the nanotech future we'll all be nurses (or economy professors)!
Posted by: Mats on March 9, 2004 01:41 PMI took a look at the BLS breakdown of "business services" as I am skeptical of the claim that offshore outsourcing has not had an effect on some of these job categories:
"Accounting, IT services, call centers, and other administrative services that support businesses are what people worry about being outsourced, and they all fall into the category of "professional and business services"."
The table at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t14.htm
shows that job categories which I think are vulnerable to offshore outsourcing HAVE declined:
Computer Systems Design and related services declined from
1,115.3 to 1,101.1 between 2/03 and 2/04.
Accounting and Bookkeeping services declined from 982.1 to 812.2 over the same period.
Professional and technical services also declined from 6,730.0 to 6,657.1.
(I don't know what they include in this category.)
Figures are in thousands of workers.
Perhaps the increases in things like legal services is making up for a decline in the above (offshoreable) job categories.
Posted by: camille roy on March 9, 2004 02:11 PMDecomposing the near term impact of offshoring and offshore outsourcing upon U.S. jobs in any sector, particularly one as wooly as "professional and business services," is a daunting task, though one worthy of undertaking. While I agree with the logic of the study that is the subject of this discussion--industries that are intense users of labor saving technologies have relatively sluggish job growth or have experienced a decline in jobs--and note that the implications are not encouraging for those employed in industries that are in the process of integrating IT (including health care and education), I also agree with Camille that unbundling the broad services sector and analyzing job growth categorically rather than in the aggregate provides a much more meaningful clue as to the dynamics in the contemporary job market, thereby enabling a more focused research agenda. With that said, I am unconvinced that the impact of offshoring upon even those recently declining job categories is entirely negative, given the interdependent nature of U.S. and foreign laborers.
Posted by: Mike InfoPol on March 9, 2004 03:25 PMLook at the categories that are increasing- janitors and lawn care. This is being outsourced (domestically) instead of having a higher paid production worker stay on payroll and do those jobs on slack time, they have trimmed the staff, pay the production workers they do have overtime when necessary and hire the janitorial services companies (you know the ones responsible for the undocumented workers at WalMart). This is a huge cost savings. A large part of the military force reduction was by contracting the lawn mowing food prep etc. to private contractors. Instead of having soldiers do the work, retire after 30 years and be responsible for military pension and benefits, the military now pays private contractors to provide those services. This saves the military benefits costs. This is how the military has undergone force reduction without losing readiness. The same works for business.
Posted by: bakho on March 9, 2004 04:37 PMA note on National Review's corner, a speculation on a possible new underground economy:
http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_03_07_corner-archive.asp#026688
Is there any way to get real numbers on this? Are, for example, Paypal's cash flow-through numbers in the public domain?
One variable between the last recession and this one is that last time, there was no Internet. I do most of my work over the Net, from home.
But unless someone can get a hold of real numbers on this theory, it's just a theory. The Catch-22 is, of course, by definition the real numbers are not going to be easy to come by.
Posted by: tbrosz on March 9, 2004 11:34 PMfrom http://www.networkingpipeline.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=17301491
The growing number of companies moving information technology work to low-wage foreign countries has driven down salaries for many IT jobs in the U.S., and the trend is expected to continue, a salary research group said Wednesday.
Overall, the premium paid for IT workers with specific skills was 23 percent lower in 2003 than in 2001, and the pay for certification in particular skills dropped 11 percent, Foote Partners LLC said.
The New Canaan, Conn., firm found that while the general economic downturn contributed to salary deflation, outsourcing pushed compensation down even further.
In a yearlong study of 400 Fortune 1000 companies, researchers found that by 2006, the organizations expected from 35 percent to 45 percent of their current full-time IT jobs to go to workers overseas, David Foote, president and chief research officer for Foote Partners, said.
"That showed a definite declining onshore workforce -- fewer jobs for IT people in this country," Foote said.
The exodus of jobs has caused U.S. salaries in many IT areas to plummet, particular application development and maintenance, call centers for tech support and some database work. In general, jobs that are related to implementation of IT strategies are the most severely affected.
"What we found is a lot of correlation between a decline in pay for skills and certification in areas that are actually moving offshore," Foote said. "There's no need anymore for premium pay for those skills ... and also, a lot of bonuses have quite frankly been redirected to a very small number of people."
Posted by: camille roy on March 10, 2004 08:16 PMA direct corrolary of the Ricardean model is that the level of consumption is directly related to productivity. If Indian, Chinese or Russian high school graduate goes into, for example, humanities, they will be paid less than $100 a month. So they go into engineering/IT and are paid several hundred to (at most) a few thousand dollars a month. Lets assume US computer engineer is twice as productive as the Indian one. He is going to live below the poverty level. In fact, he/she is better off being a prostitute.
Posted by: a on March 10, 2004 10:23 PMCamille and other guys,
You're much too fixated on "IT", imho.
The real invasion of information into our lives is happening much lower down the chain. Bus drivers no longer handle the cash. Wrenches are less likely than they used to be to skin your knuckles. This sort of stuff is human thought going to work.
The improvements in the productivity of the computer industry generally show up as improvements in the claimed profitability of the computer industry. I don't laugh at this: computers help us do a lot of stuff that was impossible when I was a child. But any sensible person has to get off the "it's all IT" bus and pay attention to what is generally happening in the working world.
-dlj.
And I suppose that careful scrutiny of these BLS numbers will, eventually, show us where the next structural revision (I mean employment growth) is going to occur.
Kash can cite an increase of 291 out of ~16400 as a "rapid" increase (education and health) --not all that impressive, no?
'Could use a further demarcation with an increasing number of ailing Boomers and a falling(?) number of students.
Or we could just look at the demographics and see that it is the health care sector.
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