The Economist's Buttonwood Tree quotes extensively from Warren Buffett, and is alarmed at the amount of money that junk-bond issuers are able to borrow:
Economist.com | The Buttonwood column: ...It is not just the ugliest end of the junk spectrum that investors now think has a great personality. An index of overall junk-debt spreads, compiled by Standard & Poor’s, has more than halved since it reached its high. Trouble, though, is brewing, says Diane Vazza, a managing director at the rating agency. Although defaults are falling, this is largely because the economy is benign and interest rates very low. The resultant demand for yield “allows the most speculative grade of issuers access to the capital markets”.
Thus has the number of first-time issuers in the junk market surged: there have been 21 so far this year, and twice as many came to the market last year as the year before. Thanks to all these debuts, credit quality has fallen. In January and February, 45% and 47% respectively of new junk issues carried a rating of B- or lower. Last year as a whole, the figure was 31%. “When the share of lower-grade issuance (particularly at the B- level or lower) exceeds 30% for a sustained period of time,” says S&P, “it generally serves as a reliable indicator of imminent default pressure two or three years ahead.”
Most investors in the junk market, of course, do not intend to be around that long. But for those who are, what might lead to a pick-up in defaults? An economy running on no savings and lots of debt, and one, moreover, that is creating precious few jobs, might simply run out of steam. Certainly, this is the message the markets seemed to take after the dismal employment numbers on Friday March 5th. Only 21,000 new jobs were added to payrolls in February. The yield on ten-year Treasuries fell by just over a quarter of a percentage point, though this drop also had much to do with other things, such as the Bank of Japan buying some $15 billion of dollars on the same day, and needing to put the money somewhere.
But there is another view, though admittedly a minority one. A few at least in the Federal Reserve (and elsewhere) are becoming acutely aware that its ultra-low-interest-rate policy is having a hugely distorting effect on asset markets. Put simply, investors are taking on too much risk in too many areas for too little reward.
Mr Buffett, for one, is well aware of the lack of rewards in riskier assets, which is why Berkshire Hathaway is invested so heavily in government debt. This may pay “pathetically low interest”, but the pain of doing something stupid in riskier markets is potentially worse. “Charlie [Munger] and I detest taking even small risks unless we feel that we are being adequately compensated for doing so. About as far as we will go down that path is to occasionally eat cottage cheese a day after the expiration date on the carton.”...
I think that the Buttonwood Tree has forgotten what the point of a central bank's running a low interest-rate policy is. The whole point of a low interest-rate policy is that it "allows the most speculative grade of issuers access to the capital markets”. That is what we call a good thing--as long as circumstances are such that a low interest-rate policy is appropriate.
It is appropriate for a central bank to run a low interest-rate policy when employment and capacity utilization are low relative to trends, and there are lots of productive resources lying idle. The point of a low interest-rate policy is to stimulate investment: to get even those businesses whose investment projects have low expected returns and high risk into the capital markets, issuing bonds and stock to get their plans financed, on the grounds that even if the value of the capital put in place is only 80% of its resource cost, 80% is still a lot more than zero--and zero is the most likely outcome if the central bank raises interest rates to discourage such junk issuing and if the workers who would otherwise build AMC's theaters are left sitting idle because of lack of aggregate demand.
The central bank is not a nanny. Saving investors who, in an environment of very low safe returns, adopt a dismissive attitude toward risk is not its objective. Achieving stable prices along with maximum employment and purchasing power is its objective.
And if that means that people with business plans and investment projects that are fundamentally silly manage to profit because the cost of capital is artificially low and short-sighted investors' tolerance for risk foolishly high, then such a victory for the Mammon of Unrighteousness is part of the price we pay for the avoidance of depression.
Posted by DeLong at March 9, 2004 12:45 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this postI think it takes too much reading between the lines to see a call for tighter Money in the Buttonwood Piece. It reads more like a caveat emptor to the unsuspecting bond investor. But your points are well taken nonetheless.
Posted by: Michael Carroll on March 9, 2004 01:26 PMMoodys is predicting that the high yield bond default rate will decline to 3% by December 2004. The default rate on high yield bonds has been falling here and in Europe for more than 2 years. There would not seem to a meaningful jump in defaults for some time, so I do not find a need to worry yet. Besides, there is usually every reason to buy "conservative" high yield funds rather than riskier funds.
Posted by: anne on March 9, 2004 01:32 PMI suspect that the duration of extremely low rates is a big source of the risk from junk issuance. The more time we go without forcing junk issuers to prove their ability to stay in business under less than ideal conditions, the bigger part of the pool of assets that will go under when credit does tighten.
That said, TEC International (an employment consultant of some kind, I think) found in a survey of firms with sales from $1 million to $1 bln that over half intend to hire this year. Of those, 57% intend to put on full-time employees. The Forbes1000/Fortune500 crowd still report intensions to stick to temp hiring whenever possible. So yes, junk is a reasonable conduit for monetary policy when the goal of monetary policy is to spur employment.
Posted by: K Harris on March 9, 2004 01:45 PMBrad DeLong:
"The central bank is not a nanny. Saving investors who, in an environment of very low safe returns, adopt a dismissive attitude toward risk is not its objective. Achieving stable prices along with maximum employment and purchasing power is its objective."
The central bank may be not be a nanny, but the Federal Reserve has saved investors a couple of times. Remember the LTCM crisis in 1998 or Black Monday in 1987 ? The Fed played a crucial role during these market panics by adjusting its monetary policy. This also the reason why I don't understand Greenspan on the asset price issue: apparently he and the FOMC have been willing to adjust monetary policy in the face of (rapidly) falling asset prices, but they deem it impossible to adjust monetary policy in case of a developing asset price bubble. If the FOMC would have been consistent in its approach to asset prices, they should not have intervened in 1987 and 1998.
Achieving stable prices along with maximum employment and purchasing power is indeed the objective of the FRB (since 1978, I believe) but is misguided in my opinion. Many may praise the FRB for its monetary policy, but the past couple of years have shown that it has become very difficult for the FRB to reconcile achieving stable prices with maximum employment and purchasing power. The FRB has taken drastic action to maximize employment by slashing the Fed Funds rate, with little effect. Employment has barely increased, asset prices (real estate, bond prices) have skyrocketed. Although consumer prices seem stable, using the (faulty) CPI indicator, many other indicators such as rising commodity prices and the falling dollar seem to point to a decrease in purchasing power. Actually, the FRB and federal government are doing what the Japanese were doing in the beginning of the 1990s and the United States are now in the same "twilight zone" as Japan, between being an economic miracle and an economic failure. Falling asset prices and deflation have yet to arrive.
Posted by: Nescio on March 9, 2004 02:01 PMSuch advice is exactly how we got the Nasdaq bubble. "It's not up to the Fed to stop the bubble because the Fed is not a nanny." Then once the bubble pops, the Fed is supposed to be out there cutting interest rates to keep the financial system going. That's pretty much how we got into the economic mess we're in.
(OK Bush has made the mess even worse, but Clinton still left a mess.)
I hope Kerry steers clear of Clintonian economics, and maybe that means steering clear of Clintonian economists. Stephen Roach forever!
Whether it is the broad based GDP price deflator or CPI, inflation measures have been and are quite low. So, there is every reason to have had a fine bond price increase and there is no reason to think there is a bond bubble.
Posted by: anne on March 9, 2004 02:21 PMBill Clinton and Robert Rubin helped insure the most robust economic expansion in decades. We can only hope for such economic leadership again.
Posted by: anne on March 9, 2004 02:27 PMYou don't understand, Ann. It's all Clinton's fault. Unless it's good, in which case it's despite Clinton. It's simple, really. Republicans call this 'responsibility'.
Posted by: Barry on March 9, 2004 04:16 PMI suppose the existence of any amount of un- or under-employment can be interpreted in terms of inadequate aggregate demand (macro framework). It can also be interpreted as a problem of real wages being too high (micro framework). These views are not incompatible, of course: just two ways of looking at the same thing.
Now, if we can admit, for the purposes of argument, that freeing up trade with populous low-wage countries like China and India will have a depressing effect on the full-employment wage level in the U.S., isn't this tantamount to saying that the only way to get employment up in the U.S. is to lower real hourly wages?
And given the downward stickyness of nominal wages, isn't the orthodox (Keynsian/Friedmanesque)way out to gently life the rate of inflation above its current very low level -- ie to increase the money supply faster than the rate of increase in the supply of real goods and services that Americans consume?
And would not this be expected to cause a temporary dip in short-term interest rates, only after which should we see the first signs of a pick-up in inflation -- which, in turn, should be followed by a pick-up in employment(in relatively capital intensive sectors of manufacturing especially)?
Is there any evidence that this is the policy being pursued by Allan Greenspan? And, if so, is there any chance it can kick in in time to save Bush in November?
I'd appreciate Brad DeLong's plain English comments, if he would care to make them.
Posted by: Luke Lea on March 9, 2004 07:52 PMThe problem with excessive monetary loosening is precisely that a great deal of capital is tied up in these under-performing companies. It is not the Fed's job to save investors, however it is the Fed's job not to promote moral hazard which is exactly what the Kindleberger text cited in Brad's next post was talking about. The low growth of jobs despite monetary loosening is principally due to a structural cause of unemployment. Part of this is due to the trade competition that encourages capital flight, and part of this is due to the floating of companies that would go under - SHOULD go under but for the grace of the Fed.
The decline in defaults is not to be celebrated. The structural competitive performance of these companies is not improved. There is a reason why they have junk bond ratings. To float them with low interest rates is to prevent a structural market liquidation of their assets and the reinvestment of their capital in new ventures. The role of monetary policy is not to prevent this, but to cushion this.
By lowering interest rates, what would otherwise be a firesale is converted into spread out schedule of asset liquidations and market capital reallocations that is manageable and market efficient rather than irrational. However, lower interest rates too far and you enable a zombie company situation like Japan where the books of banks are filled with underperforming loans and companies can stay afloat for practically forever without folding.
Indeed lowering interest rates too far is counter-productive because it prevents the restructuring that would lead to new growth and a healthy recovery. It also forces the monetary liquidity into speculative asset inflation, that will have serious consequences for us all. Buttonwood is right on, and the effects are already being felt in the real economy. The low interest rates and failure to economically recover in a meaningful way have contributed to the fall in the dollar. This fall in the dollar has begun pricing oil&energy costs higher due to monetary inflation and not supply&demand dynamics. The price of gasoline is rising accordingly.
When this goes on long enough, it will force a further slow-down in the economy and cause a growing gap between the fundamental state of the economy and the inflated state produced by asset speculation. Eventually, a shift in policy or an exogenous shock will trigger a market correction of monumental terms. One that the FOMC will be helpless to stop because they've already expended their "bullets".
Of course, as Keynes has suggested the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent. So putting a date on this is not possible. However both the stock market and the bond markets may have topped, and instead of anti-correlating they may become locked together. We could see a triple convergence - the dollar falling, bond prices falling, and the stock market falling. This is what happens when central banks exceed their mandate in applying stimulation. Corrections do happen. It's only a matter of time.
Posted by: Oldman on March 9, 2004 10:18 PMIn March of 1939, Woody Guthrie sang:
"...as through this world I've wandered/I've seen lots of funny men/Some will rob you with a six-gun/And some with a fountain pen.."
http://www.geocities.com/nashville/3448/pretty.html
------------
YESTERDAY, in addition to reminding us that "the central bank is not a nanny," Brad asked the rhetorical question:
"What Is the Objective of a Central Bank?"
This morning, I replied:
"'A' central bank," Brad?...
------------
>U.S. Budget Deficit Threatens World Economy, IMF Warns
>Thursday, January 8, 2004
>A rising U.S. budget deficit and trade imbalance may create such a burden of foreign debt that it could cause financial instability in the United States and the rest of the world, a report released yesterday by the International Monetary Fund says...
http://www.unwire.org/UNWire/20040108/449_11858.asp
------------
>Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
>Before the Bundesbank Lecture 2004, Berlin, Germany
>January 13, 2004
>Globalization has altered the economic frameworks of both developed and developing nations in ways that are difficult to fully comprehend....
>Yadda, yadda, yadda...
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040113/default.htm
------------
>Trade Deficit Swells 17.1% To Record $489 Bil In '03
>Tue Feb 17,10:21 AM ET
>By Jed Graham
>The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected to a near-record $42.5 billion in December, bringing the full-year total to a record $489.4 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday.
>The trade gap expanded by $4.1 billion, or 10.8%, from November's 13-month low of $38.4 billion. December's deficit was the second biggest ever, behind the $42.9 billion gap last March.
>For the year, the deficit rose $71.3 billion, or 17%, from the old record of $418 billion in 2002.
>The goods deficit with China swelled to a record $124 billion in 2003 from $103 billion in 2002....
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ibd/20040217/bs_ibd_ibd/2004217general01
------------
>Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan Understanding household debt obligations
>At the Credit Union National Association 2004 Governmental Affairs Conference, Washington, D.C.
>February 23, 2004
>Credit unions have long focused on the needs of their members. Traditionally, the industry has specialized in personal and automobile loans, and the bulk of lending at many credit unions remains concentrated on these types of loans. In the past decade, however, many of you have become more involved in first- and second-lien mortgage loans...
>Yadda, yadda, yadda...
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040223/default.htm
------------
>China Has No Plan to Revalue Yuan Soon
>Sun Mar 7, 5:36 PM ET
>By Natsuko Waki
>BASEL, Switzerland (Reuters) - People's Bank of China deputy governor Li Ruogu said on Sunday China has no plan to revalue the yuan in the near future and believes the pegged currency is correctly valued.
>Speaking on the sidelines of a bimonthly meeting of central bank governors from the G10 industrialized nations and major emerging markets, Li also said China will closely monitor inflation although the domestic economy is not overheating.
>Asked by reporters whether there was an imminent plan to revalue the yuan, Li said: "No ... I don't think there is pressure."
>Asked if he thought the yuan was correctly valued now, he replied "Certainly I do."
>The yuan, also known as the renminbi, is pegged at about 8.28 to the dollar. China has come under heavy U.S. pressure to revalue the yuan as U.S. manufacturers claim the Chinese currency is artificially cheap and is sapping U.S. jobs and exports...
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040307/bs_nm/economy_china_dc_2
------------
...In this slick new 'globalized' world of ours, there's no such thing as "'A' Central Bank", Brad.
In the future, if you want a NON-RHETORICAL answer to that question, you simply MUST be more specific...
------------
April 11, 2002
>US dollar hegemony has got to go
>By Henry C K Liu
>"...World trade is now a game in which the US produces dollars and [exports jobs while]* the rest of the world produces things that dollars can buy. The world's interlinked economies no longer trade to capture a comparative advantage; they compete in exports to capture needed dollars to service dollar-denominated foreign debts and to accumulate dollar reserves to sustain the exchange value of their domestic currencies. To prevent speculative and manipulative attacks on their currencies, the world's central banks must acquire and hold dollar reserves in corresponding amounts to their currencies in circulation. The higher the market pressure to devalue a particular currency, the more dollar reserves its central bank must hold. This creates a built-in support for a strong dollar that in turn forces the world's central banks to acquire and hold more dollar reserves, making it stronger. This phenomenon is known as dollar hegemony, which is created by the geopolitically constructed peculiarity that critical commodities, most notably oil, are denominated in dollars. The recycling of petro-dollars is the price the US has extracted from oil-producing countries for US tolerance of the oil-exporting cartel since 1973.
By definition, dollar reserves must be invested in US assets [That's Stocks and Bonds (or Corporate AND Congressional IOU's) to YOU pilgrim]...
...The adverse effect of this type of globalization on the US economy is also becoming clear. In order to act as consumer of last resort for the whole world, the US economy has been pushed into a debt bubble that thrives on conspicuous consumption and fraudulent accounting..."
http://www.atimes.com/global-econ/DD11Dj01.html
*[words in brackets are mine]
------------
>Dollar Rallies as Euro Hits Stops, BOJ Acts
>Tue Mar 9, 5:03 PM ET
>By Jamie McGeever
>NEW YORK -- The dollar rallied across the board Tuesday, gaining particular ground against the major European currencies after the euro tumbled through a series of pre-placed sell orders.
>The dollar had been well supported for the entire global session after alarmingly weak U.K. trade data put sterling under heavy selling pressure. Indeed, the pound lost around two and a half cents on the day.
>In an extremely choppy trading session devoid of market-moving data, the other major focus of attention was once again tactics apparently employed by Japan's Ministry of Finance to drive the dollar against the yen.
>In a mirror image of its suspected maneuver Monday, the Bank of Japan, which acts in currency markets on behalf of the finance ministry, suddenly withdrew its bid for dollars via agent banks at around 111.10 yen, causing the dollar to plunge as low as 110.25 yen. Unlike Monday, however, when it was content to let the dollar settle at its session lows, the BOJ almost immediately roared back into the market aggressively buying dollars above the market rate to send the greenback higher, traders said.
>There was then a lull of around two hours before the euro's slide below $ 1.2350 gathered momentum, sending the dollar advancing across the board.
>"What you have here is an unwinding of short-dollar positions put on at 1.2680 Swiss francs and $1.2400-50," against the euro, said David Leaver, senior trader at Gain Capital in Warren, N.J.
>He said thinning liquidity after the close of London trading likely helped accelerate the euro's decline. "But these moves are a little exaggerated, don't get me wrong."
>Late Tuesday in New York, the euro was at $1.2317, down from $1.2404 late Monday in New York and also trading at 137.20 yen from 137.83 yen.
>Hit by a 29% slump in exports to the U.S. and a subsequent widening in the U.K. trade deficit in January to a record 5.6 billion pounds, sterling fell sharply to $1.8250 from $1.8490 late Monday.
>The dollar advanced to 1.2820 francs from 1.2745 francs and 111.34 yen from 111.16 yen. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at 111.28 yen, up from 111.15 yen.
>The dollar's marginal gains against the yen mask another volatile session for the two currencies, however.
>"The BOJ...seems to be signalling in general that they are not to be messed with," said Alan Ruskin, research director at financial consultancy 4Cast in New York.
>There's no denying the psychological impact it's having. Specifically, the Bank of Japan appears to be succeeding in one of the text book aims of currency intervention by governments: flushing speculators out of the market.
>"The BOJ is playing the game now," said Enrico Caruso, senior dealer at Tempest Asset Management in Irvine, Calif. "Let them run the big (stop-loss) levels, take out everyone then run it back up with more muscle. By the week's end it will be hard to find many speculators being too aggressive in this so I guess the BOJ wins for now."
>Pulling surprises like the ones this week could well discourage short-term investors from taking speculative positions in the dollar against the yen, said one trader at a Japanese bank in New York..."
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20040309/bs_dowjones/200403091703000996
Here's something important. I read in the Financial Times that Fannie Mae is probably losing $25 bn. on derivative transactions:
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381640902&p=1012571727204
It is strange that this is not more widely discussed in the press.
BTW:
Mike, your way of posting is quite irritating. Could you please be concise ? Copying and pasting other articles does not improve the readability of this blog. You just have to provide the link to other articles.
>It is strange that this is not more widely discussed in the press.
When they could be talking about exposed boobs on television? Never.
Posted by: Stirling Newberry on March 10, 2004 07:13 AMOldman
Thanks again for your usual thoughtful post.
"...part of this is due to the floating of companies that would go under - SHOULD go under but for the grace of the Fed."
So we should just cut those airlines, those auto companies, those chip makers, those... that can't make it without a financing arm? How many companies are, like Fannie, relying on derivatives ( the miracle of finance in general) to make a profit?
I feel like the snow ball that started running down the hill, has acquired a certain momentum now. SR and AG give me the impression that it's nearing a critical threshold.
If only I could measure it and be confident that it's still controllable. The more I think about it, the more I think that the 3% prime is a stab in the dark.
BTW Nescio:
--------------
>U.S. Trade Gap Hits Record $43.1 Billion in January
>2 hours, 53 minutes ago
>By Doug Palmer
>WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $43.1 billion in January...
>...Imports from China posted a 6.6 percent gain, pushing the monthly trade gap with that country to $11.5 billion..."
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&e=6&u=/nm/20040310/bs_nm/economy_dc
--------------
>The [Public] Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It
>03/08/2004
>$7,100,583,000,173.98
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpdodt.htm
--------------
That's seven--TRILLION, nescio.
That's DOLLARS.
Just in case you're still having 'readability' problems.
You want to figure out YOUR share of that debt? That's not hard to do...
There were 292,766,844 Americans as of 12:34 EST Mar 10, 2004. According to the population clock at the U.S. Census Bureau.
http://www.census.gov/
You do the math.
Don't get mad, nescio.
Just consider this message to be a 'concise', hyperlinked hug from me to you. Give it to your grandkids for me. I can't speak for you or anyone else here. But I feel like I owe them that much.
And the way things are going, they're probably going to need it....
Posted by: Mike on March 10, 2004 09:52 AM
Brad's comments are provocative, as usual and it does make one pause to think. I concede that judgements are difficult. 'Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than knowledge' (Charles Darwin).
However, I cannot resist coming to the conclusion that Brad lets off central bankers (read, Greenspan) too easily.
If a central banker's job is to keep interest rates low when there is plenty of idle capacity and if the central banker knows that such a policy has unintended and undesirable consequences, should he/she do nothing although Brad deLong is right that human beings have a sense of individual responsibility over their investment decisions.
The problem with this morally absolutist line is that their (the naive and foolish investors') actions have other consequences - when they blow up - that fall on the central banker again!
So, the central banker has to weigh the question (always): Is the cure going to worsen the disease in a different way? alternatively, if the cure (of low interest rates) throws up a different disease (dangerous speculation) and if it flattens the patient (the economy), what other medicine he/she offers?
The same medicine? Even lower interest rates? They have a zero bound. The medicine is exhausted. Then, what concoction that the good doctor can brew? If he comes up with some dangerous magic potion (printing press) that is not tried before, what guarantees can he give?
So, it is alright for Brad de Long to chastise Buttonwood - but that only raises further questions.
Truth be told: there are no easy answers. In fact, Brad de Long himself in another context cites Charles Kindleberger. What Charles Kindleberger says is worth absorbing:
the rescuer of the system, the "lender of last resort", "should exist... but his presence should be doubted.... This is a neat trick: always come to the rescue in order to prevent needless deflation, but always leave it uncertain whether rescue will arrive in time or at all, so as to instill caution in other speculators, banks, cities, or countries.... some sleight of hand, some trick with mirrors... because monetarist fundamentalism has such unhappy consequences for the economic system" when expectations converge on the "unfavorable" equilibrium.
Again, we don't know how to translate it into specific recommendation/ tool kit for a central banker. But, we know when we see a central banker using a different tool kit. It is like knowing what beauty is and what obscenity is, when you see it.
Against this 'touch and feel' criteria, it is clear that Mr. Greenspan has failed to create sufficient doubts about the existence of the lender of a last resort. His recent speeches extolling the virtues of 'addressing the post-bubble consequences' rather than the bubble itself confirms that he is a touch too keen to announce/remind time and again of the existence of the lender of a last resort.
Posted by: Anantha Nageswaran on March 10, 2004 06:41 PMInteresting viewpoint.
Posted by: Stirling Newberry on March 10, 2004 07:33 PMWhat is the objective of a central bank... reminds me of the old joke (which you may all have heard): A student falls asleep in his econ class and wakes up as the teacher asks "what should be done to solve this problem?" The student promptly replies "I'm sorry Professor, I missed the question but the answer is increase the money supply."
Posted by: Mike Runge on March 11, 2004 09:31 AMMike, I agree with Nescio. You're obnoxious.
We're all capable of clicking to read the article. Do everyone a favor and post politely like everyone else.
Posted by: PaulO on March 11, 2004 10:23 AMPaulO
So your 'Page Down' button is on the fritz?
Sooner or later Mike will get a response to one of his shorter blogs and he'll come 'round, no?
"obnoxious"?
Not compared to Patrick and Bruce (sorry Bruce).
Genius may have its limitations, but stupidity is not thus handicapped.
Posted by: Munisteri Ben on May 2, 2004 05:23 PMI am a hobo in the house of the lord.
Posted by: Moss Heidi on May 3, 2004 04:18 AMA stopped car does not imply a dead driver.
What is the point of having economists? They are nannies of all sorts of propagandistic use of stats on the economy, that is all.
Posted by: Brad Antimatterdelong on May 30, 2004 10:07 PMTruth is not determined by majority vote
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program.
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I am writing in respect of a foreign customer of my bank Mr. Akotuah
Samuel Tio, a British citizen who perished with his whole family of wife and 2
kids along with 144 others which includes the then Nigerian sports minister
late Ishaya mark Aku, in an EAS air-line plane crash in Kano northern Nigeria
on may 14th 2002.
There is an account opened in this bank in 2001 by this great late
industrialist who died in the plane crash without a written or oral
"will" attached to his account.
I am the account manager to the late industrialist and I personally have
watched with keen interest to see the next of kin since his death in
2002. This have proved abortive as no one has come up to claim his funds hence
there is no next of kin or "will" attached to the account.
As the account manager to the deceased, I am capable of transferring the
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transfer.
The total amount involved is US$17m (seventeen million united states
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a. The name of your bank
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c. Address, tel, fax, telex numbers of your bank.
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identity and my identity, also the name of my bank. You may also wish to
view this web site on the Internet to confirm the plane crash
www.disasterrelief.org/disasters/020506nigeriacrash/
For privacy and secrecy required for this transaction, please reply this
mail through my secure personal e-mail address tonyeselux300@yahoo.com
Thank you as I await your immediate reply.
Gratefully treat as urgent.
tony Eselu.
Posted by: tony on July 14, 2004 02:27 AMDear friend,
Best compliment of the day. My name is Anthony Eselu.
I am the operational manager in account management section, in charge of
credit and foreign bills of one of the prime banks in Nigeria.
However, I got your contact through my Internet search.
I am writing in respect of a foreign customer of my bank Mr. Akotuah
Samuel Tio, a British citizen who perished with his whole family of wife and 2
kids along with 144 others which includes the then Nigerian sports minister
late Ishaya mark Aku, in an EAS air-line plane crash in Kano northern Nigeria
on may 14th 2002.
There is an account opened in this bank in 2001 by this great late
industrialist who died in the plane crash without a written or oral
"will" attached to his account.
I am the account manager to the late industrialist and I personally have
watched with keen interest to see the next of kin since his death in
2002. This have proved abortive as no one has come up to claim his funds hence
there is no next of kin or "will" attached to the account.
As the account manager to the deceased, I am capable of transferring the
credit balance of the late industrialist's account to any foreign bank
account of my choice since i have all the necessary documents for the smooth
transfer.
The total amount involved is US$17m (seventeen million united states
dollars). However, i need a foreign partner who will act as the next of kin and
beneficiary to the industrialist and provide a reliable offshore bank
account where we can transfer the us$17m (seventeen million united states
dollars).
I have already done all the necessary ground works for the smooth
transfer of the funds. However, i need you to act as the next of kin to the
deceased by providing the following.
a. The name of your bank
b. Account number and name of beneficiary
c. Address, tel, fax, telex numbers of your bank.
Since I have all the documents for the smooth transfer, the moment I
receive all the above A-C, it will take us less than 14 banking days to transfer
the money into your bank account.
For your assistance and co-operation, you will take 30% of the entire
US$17m (seventeen million united states dollars), while 70% will be for me.
Upon the receipt of your positive response, I shall forward to you all
the necessary documents concerning the deceased account including his full
identity and my identity, also the name of my bank. You may also wish to
view this web site on the Internet to confirm the plane crash
www.disasterrelief.org/disasters/020506nigeriacrash/
For privacy and secrecy required for this transaction, please reply this
mail through my secure personal e-mail address tonyeselux300@yahoo.com
Thank you as I await your immediate reply.
Gratefully treat as urgent.
tony Eselu.
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