Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

The Bush genetic code must contain a congenital flaw designed to produce the worst possible choices for Treasury Secretary . . . . . . . it's hard to imagine a more clueless Treasury Secretary than Nick Brady, but Snow is doing his darndest to contest the ranking.

I wish that Snow meant that the Federal Government offers no protection whatsoever to the stockholders of Freddie and Fannie, but that just doesn't seem to be what the man said (in carefully prepared remarks). Oh well.

"the reality is that the market treats the paper as if the government is backing it" There's the problem. Greenspan's take on the issue, that it's better to correct a misperception (drive up the risk premium) on a huge category of assets, than on an even huger category of assets a couple of years down the road, fits right in with Snow's. Better to raise doubts about the government riding to the rescue while the government can still afford to ride to the rescue.

K Harris

So, the argument is that driving up the risk premium now is for more adaquate insurance. Then, the need Alan Greenspan feels is for a far more ample reserve against large scale mortgage defaults.

I happen to agree about the GSEs.

I would also happen to agree with folks who say that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are redundant now.

These days, there are plenty of other mortgage reselling options.

It's likely that the GSEs do low interest rates marginally, but this does not make housing more affordable, but rather it monetizes real estate.

Instead of lowering mortgage payments, they apply upward pressure to the price of a home, because people don't buy on price, but monthly payments.

That being said, I'm not an economist. I'm an engineer, and my economics knowledge is self taught.

I read Kindleberger's book years ago. the phrase that I recall from it, says something like "I don't believe fraud follows Say's law; demand here creates its own suply". I recalled that when the corporate scandals (Enron etc)broke out.

One feels, that no matter what they say, if the need arises they will bail out these companies,for the fact that they were created by the government. Unlike engineering you can't run a test piece to destruction.

No one believes in to big to fail, just as no one believes in Santa Claus.

It's just our economy relies on both of them.

No one believes in to big to fail, just as no one believes in Santa Claus.

It's just our economy relies on both of them.

usually I find a lot to dislike about any of this administration's policy ideas, but reforming the GSE's seems to be one of the few exceptions so far. I don't trust them to be in charge of any reform, but I don't mind them pushing the issue.

a few links:
FT reports FNM faces $25B derivatives losses:
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381640902

study on GSE's implicit subsidy
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2003/200364/200364pap.pdf

OFHEO on systemic risk
http://www.ofheo.gov/Media/Archive/docs/reports/sysrisk.pdf

Of course they're too big to fail (if they can be rescued). But hey, Kindleberger is right - making people think they aren't, is good policy.

The problem is in the subtlety.

Mr. Snow lacks credibility in the global capital markets. His going out and saying that the U.S. Government would allow either FNM or FRE to fail is folderol and poppycock, and does nothing to enhance the Secretary's already low standing. Quite the opposite, as a matter of fact.

The crisis looming is the USD, and when that hits Mr. Snow will need respect and standing. Right now he's got none.

Some of my speculative pals are taking bets on when the US goes back to issuing "Roosa" bonds.

There is nothing either good or bad but thinking makes it so. If the public thinks that Freddie and Fanny are too big to fail, then no matter what Mr. Snow says, they are. The only way round this is to break them up. Why not? We could have a whole brood of "Maes" from Abbie to Zachy.

Could some socialization of risk actually be a good thing? I've been thinking about this for the past few weeks. I'm not an economist, so perhaps I don't see the obvious hole here, but here're my thoughts.

Suppose people have a utility function with diminishing marginal utility with respect to money. Say, Cobb-Douglas or somesuch. They are therefore risk-averse.

Suppose that everyone, individually, has a choice between making a gamble and not making a gamble. If they don't make the gamble, they all make $100. If they do make the gamble, there's a 50% chance they'll make $50 and a 50% chance they'll make $160. Suppose that the result of each gamble is independent. Now, if their utility increases logarithmically with their money, then they *don't make the gamble,* and rightly so. (0.5log 50 + 0.5log 160 < log 100)

Let's suppose that the state socializes risk, though. Say, it imposes a $50 tax on anyone who wins, and promises $50 compensation to anyone who loses. In that case, the payoff becomes a 50% chance of $100 and a 50% chance of $110. A Pareto improvement, no? Everyone makes the gamble, and is better off. Unless, of course, everyone independently loses, but since gambles in my hypothetical scenario are independent, that's not very probable.

Individuals might not find certain risks to their liking, but they could still be an overall plus for society.

Err... wait: I've just described something called "insurance" haven't I? I guess no one's ever thought of that one before.

Anne,

It's now broader than concern over large scale mortgage defaults. It's large scale investment losses of any kind. Today's FT repeats a fairly widely held worry that two big GSEs are dabbling in derivatives without holding much if any reserves against losses in those markets. The idea is that, rather than merely hedging, the GSEs are taking on derivative positions as a profit-making opportunity. Shades of LTCM. So yes, reserves need to be boosted. There is also a view, I think, that Fannie and Freddie stock is mispriced, because the risk premium required of them is low due to the assumption of government backing. The very notion that these are "government sponsored enterprises" is at the core of that worry. If the public were less eager to hold their stock, the GSEs would have less flexibility to expand their portfolio of mortgages and derivatives, and they would be less dominant in their markets. Better distribution of risk all around. As I'm sure you know, one push is to have them regulated, but not sponsored, by the government.

Story may advance big-time next Monday. This below is from the FT story that K Harris refers us to:

Fannie Mae paid a net $25.1bn on derivatives transactions in under four years - nearly all of which may represent losses that cannot be recouped, in turn depressing future earnings.

The potential scale of the liabilities, which have yet to be recognised in the company's earnings or in the minimum capital adequacy required by its regulator, raise fresh doubts about the financial health of the mortgage finance giant.

Regulation of Fannie Mae and its sibling Freddie Mac is rapidly moving up the agenda in Washington, amid concerns that the two goverment-sponsored entities have grown so big that they pose a systemic risk to the US financial system. The two entities own or guarantee mortgages totalling $4,000bn....

Next Monday Fannie Mae is due to release its annual "fair value disclosure" - a statement of the current market value of its derivatives positions. Observers will be watching to see if the gap between the company's regulatory capital and fair value has widened further than the $6bn shortfall of a year ago.

PS to the above. At this link there is a description of how the FT figured out the $24 billion.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381650569&p=1012571727088

Bruce Reed would consider Snow to be a hack, not a wonk. Enough said.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0403.reed.html

I think investors believe that Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae are, if not the same, very similar. Ginnie Mae mortgage backed securities *are* backed by the full faith and credence. But there aren't as many of them out there.

It is just possible that this administration is engaged in a worthwhile endeavor, although I'm sure they'll screw it up. Remember the Morgan-Stanley article recently complaining about very low interest rates leading to asset bubble after asset bubble? Right now MBSs are very popular with Asian central banks and pension funds, much like T-Bills. China keeping pressure on their exchange rate has helped to keep mortgage rates low. Low mortgage rates have lead to lots of home-equity loans and refinancing. Which has kept consumer spending propped up for now.

This has tapered off somewhat recently, leading some to speculate that the housing bubble (and I believe there is one) is about to burst. Snow might actually be engaged in trying to talk it down, rather than letting it explode.

Too little, too late. The housing market is about 18% overvalued nation wide. The administration needed to start a long time ago to make any big impact. Of course if the administration did that, they would have had to admit that borrowing was propping up consumer spending and not tax cuts. (Wow! I got back less than 1/2 of 1% of my income!!!! Yeah, that'll go a long way.) So it was not in their ideological best interests.

But you can't deny reality forever. If mortgage rates spike and housing prices fall (or even stagnate for too long) a lot of private homeowners will feel poorer. The "asset" they invested in isn't growing fast enough to make them feel wealthier. So they will tend to consume less. This could be interesting.

"should exist... but his presence should be doubted"

Am I the only one to see a nifty theological twist to this?

When I wanted to write on the fall of the House of Keynes, whose work was already there - Brad Delong's... Perhaps there is a certain personality type that is drawn to disaster, panic and crash.

Which is perhaps why there is a perverse interest in watching the Bush executive.

http://www.bopnews.com/archives/000333.html#000333

"the reality is that the market treats the paper as if the government is backing it" There's the problem. Greenspan's take on the issue, that it's better to correct a misperception (drive up the risk premium) on a huge category of assets, than on an even huger category of assets a couple of years down the road, fits right in with Snow's. Better to raise doubts about the government riding to the rescue while the government can still afford to ride to the rescue."

"The passed pawn is a criminal, who must be kept under lock and key - lesser measures, such as police surveillance are inadequeate." A Nimosovitch.

One cannot jawbone down billions of dollars of securities into doubt - the government, if it wants to credibly convince people that it will not bail out assets in future must preciptate a crisis which creates incentives for people to leave their positions and change their behavior.

Sterling Newberry's "must precipitate a crisis" notion is probably why policy makers are so busy talking up the risks of GSEs. Policy-makers don't precipitate crisis. At very most, they allow crisis to unfold. Even that has become a rarity. What is left is the pulpit, from which policy makers loudly proclaim the risks of GSEs and "exuberance". The "doubted existence" of a lender of last resort becomes problematic when avoidance of moral hazard is nowhere in evidence. Our investor class has grown accustomed to being sheltered from the market.

Peter
Thanks for the link to the AOCI stuff. I like the part where only the Fannie officials think it's "not material to the company's health" to disclose their derivative positions. Like the CEOs ( Intel in particular) claiming that the stock options are not "material" disclosures on the balance sheet either.
Partly incalcuable ( in their view) but mostly, obfuscatory.
This whole confidence game which seems to be drawing to a close, reminds me of the Heizenberg Uncertainty Principle where the mere scrutiny of the subject disturbs the item under study.
With SR and AG finally pointing fingers at GSEs, the housing item looks like it's in for a modification.
The Snow job is just really late in the game, no?

Brad,

Your Kindleberger pensee is just great. Just never forget what Marshall McLuhan said, "Art is what you can get away with."

I sometimes thing that Republicans have taken this thought more seriously than the rest of us. Like I'm what you can get away with is everything that isn't nailed down...

Brad,

You write:

"Because the companies were originally chartered by Congress and have access to multibillion-dollar emergency lines of credit, some investors treat their securities as almost equivalent to riskless U.S. Treasury debt."

I once audited the Toronto branch of Fuji Bank, which was a hoot in itself: the vault had millions of dollars' worth of not-marked-to-market debt in American dollars, which they had bought at face value as a favour to the then conservative government of Saskatchewan, a not notably bright bunch of guys in town for the weekend.

Also in the vault was a huge stack of paper, six hundred million in standby credits to the excellent Reichmann family, hypothecated against stuff in Chicago, churned out by the word processors of Tory and Tory (law firm of my friend Bill Davis, one of the better Premiers this province has seen lately) at a fee of $25,000 per chunk.

When the Reichmanns ran into difficulty over their short-term debt on the floor of the Toronto and New York exchanges, the stand-by credit agreements vanished in a flash.

See sub-paragraph this and that, thus and so... I think the Reichmanns are big enough that they didn't go ask for their twenty-five-thousand-dollarses back.

Friedman has written that he looks forward to the day when money will be a pure exemplification of trust. I think that day is pretty well here.

"Policy-makers don't precipitate crisis."

Obviously you live in a country that has never elected a man with the last name Bush to its chief executive office...

Coincidentally to Brad's, "coal in the bathtub", last night my kid told me one of his play chums, whose parent is a single mom, asked him if they could "buy some of your firewood", which we get by scrounging construction sites for used lumber.
They don't have any way to heat their house, as the local woodsplitters are demanding a fortune.

And this morning, riding my bicycle to work to save money for groceries, (which continue to rise faster than my paycheck), I met an elderly woman, walking with her cane, stocking cap, and plastic bag full of clothes, in the early cold at 6:00AM.
"Good morning," says I, wondering if she was lost.
"Good morning, sir!" she smiled, then walked off.

Coal in the bathtub indeed! Throw out the Royals!

>The Snow job is just really late in the game, no?

The gods are unhappy, the question is merely which ox gets gored on the altar. Greenspan and Snow are nominating:

1. Home owners who bought up houses at inflated prices.

2. People 45 and under who are under the delusion that they are going to retire before age 85.

K Harris and Peter Quennell

Thanks for the shrewd comments on risk. We are increasingly taking it for granted that we are to be sheltered from risk by policy makers. Not a sound investment course here and now. Also, I began to look carefully at intrinsic risk for FreddieMac when Warren Buffett sold shares that had been held for almost 20 years.

Iain Babeu's comment notwithstanding, the housing market is not overvalued by 18%, but rather, the credit market is too liquid by 18%.

Houses still cost considerably more than just a decade ago to build, (lumber prices have gone up 26% since December), and developable land is disappearing fast. Environmental reg's, whew!

More to the point, houses are not widgets!

There are plenty of houses at the low end of the market falling in valuation, plenty of rental units on the market being run into the ground. The demand, logically, is at the medium-to-near high end, to move into a house with modern plumbing and wiring (instead of lead pipes and cotton braid wire), modern insulation (instead of sawdust), modern roofs, non-asbestos floor tiles, good local schools, fair size lawn and so on.

Where you will see that 18% peel off the fastest will be at the high-end, $1M(+) homes based on sheer veneer and classism, and at the low end, as neighborhoods shatter in the Bush-era economic decline, houses gone vacant, arson, crackhouses, relocated sexual predators, homeless crashing, taggers, block breaking by rentals and so on.

Where you will see housing hold its value is in the middle-income well-maintained neighborhoods, so it does a dis-service to everyone to cry and alarm without making that crucial distinction.

Having said that, I think the whole realtor 6% show and housing appraisal and inspection for the mortgage lender con-job is a real shuck. People who might have saved real money with low interest rates are paying a lot more for the same house that sold only last year for 10% less. A shame, but it ladders up the chain to the next buyer.

The trick will be finding buyers in 10 years once gas, groceries and utilities equal house payments!

Sterling,

Good point. Make that "don't consciously precipitate..." No, make that "don't publicly precipitate..." No, make that "don't schedule crisis to manifest during their own term in office." There, that's better. Let me know it that seems right.

Policy makers "don't schedule crisis to manifest during their own term in office."

Ha ha.
Yes.

`When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, `it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less.'

`The question is,' said Alice, `whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

`The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, `which is to be master -- that's all.'

Alice was too much puzzled to say anything; so after a minute Humpty Dumpty began again. `They've a temper, some of them -- particularly verbs: they're the proudest -- adjectives you can do anything with, but not verbs -- however, I can manage the whole lot of them! Impenetrability! That's what I say!'

`Would you tell me please,' said Alice, `what that means?'

`Now you talk like a reasonable child,' said Humpty Dumpty, looking very much pleased. `I meant by "impenetrability" that we've had enough of that subject, and it would be just as well if you'd mention what you mean to do next, as I suppose you don't mean to stop here all the rest of your life.'

`That's a great deal to make one word mean,' Alice said in a thoughtful tone.

`When I make a word do a lot of work like that,' said Humpty Dumpty, `I always pay it extra.'

`Oh!' said Alice. She was too much puzzled to make any other remark.

`Ah, you should see 'em come round me of a Saturday night,' Humpty Dumpty went on, wagging his head gravely from side to side, `for to get their wages, you know.'

Just heard on radio that John McClain
said he would be happy to be Kerry's Vice President.

Can not think of a better ticket!!!

The race for VP is over.

"No, make that "don't schedule crisis to manifest during their own term in office.""

And about that, there is wide agreement on both sides of the aisle.

Sadly there is no chance John McCain will run with John Kerry. This must be wrong.

That Bush is mismanaging the US into the ground isn't surprising given that he was really unsuccessful as an executive in the private world. I never understood why voters think this would have changed.

It's also not that surprising that there's a fiscal deficit under a Republican regime. A fiscal surplus requires the government to spend the surplus on programs that don't benefit the rich. Republicans don't want that. A deficit requires cutting programs and under a Republican regime, that means the ability to cut social programs, which really is just an indirect reduction on their tax burden.

Oops, wrong thread. Sorry.

The idea that wealthy people take unusually risky investment positions has always seemed to me to be completely detached from the real world. In the real world, the wealthy only put their money into sure things, or things where profit goes to them, and losses are socialized. I take that as a definition of crony capitalism.

A typically fine article -

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=a2r86ECqwhm8

Fed's Rate Policy Makes Some Economists Uneasy: John M. Berry

(Bloomberg) -- When Federal Reserve officials meet next week, they aren't going to raise their target for overnight interest rates, and they aren't going to give any hint they will do so soon.

Why should they?

Even though the economy is expanding in solid fashion, growth hasn't been strong enough to close much of the yawning gap between what the economy is producing and what it could produce. The result: a meager increase in the total number of payroll jobs and virtually no inflation pressure.

Most investors have recognized this reality. This week they pushed their expectations for the first Fed rate increase out to December or later.

However, some analysts and economists can't believe current Fed policy is correct.

Despite official statistics to the contrary, some see inflation building, and others argue that the official numbers understate actual job growth.

Still others complain that low rates are once again generating ``bubbles'' in the stock and bond markets and in residential real estate.

Against this background, some Fed watchers have cautioned clients that a Fed rate increase may be closer than it appears. They say recent warnings in speeches by several Fed officials that rates can't stay this low forever are a coordinated effort to prepare markets for a move.

That notion is wildly off base....

Harold,

An interesting interpretation. I will grant it is possible to say that credit is too liquid instead of housing too overpriced. It is how home owners interpret the plummeting value of their home and that it no longer covers all the other debt they have that will make the biggest long term difference.

I'm not sure I agree with you about which houses are overvalued either. My evidence here is purely anecdotal and based on my review of recent home sales http://realestate.boston.com

I see low end or rundown houses staying cheap unless they are in excellent neighborhoods. Even then they are extremely discounted. I see expensive houses ($650 plus) going up but not incredibly fast. No, the biggest rise seems to be in the middle from what I have seen. The homeowners with the house they bought for $400K that is worth $300K

Iain

Iain,

The latest data I've seen (about 5 months ago, now) showed that turnover in high priced homes was slowing, while all other categories except the very cheapest homes had a pick-up in turn-over. While that is not direct evidence of pricing, it does fit with your views on where values are moving most.

Agreed. But, I do not find evidence of a bubble in middle market housing prices. We must consider issues from immigration to low mortgage rates to a gain in population of urban young householders. No, I find no bubble in housing. there is no reason to expect substantial price declines of homes in Boston or New York City or Los Angeles....

Is it just me, or does Kindleberger's "lender of last resort" sound a lot like Asimov's Second Foundation?

Anne
Please. I tolerated this view before, hoping it would die a natural death. You persist:
" No, I find no bubble in housing. there is no reason to expect substantial price declines of homes in Boston or New York City or Los Angeles...."
A truly Stunning view from what I gauge to be an informed blogger.
This is not a good argument: The high end homes in Boston are similarly priced with those (high end) in New York. Therefore there is no bubble. One might as well compare two similar houses on the same street. Geography is not relevant to the bubble dimension.
Surely you get this, and I don't mean to be rude.
You need to look at prices now, and say last year --same house.
Tell me that's not what you meant. That I've missed the argument. That the cities you named are not particular. That a line in your post got deleted . Anything
There is no bubble in industrial or commercial real estate unless there is a case for residential development. (We don't compare Singapore with Los Angles here either.)
Now it could be that there is a place somewhere that does not have an inflated price tag. Some contaminated lot that real estate agents missed somehow. But it would be a rarity and no treasure.

Regarding house prices and housing market expectations: can you say "moral hazard"? I recently talked to a guy who just bought a house, and he expressed the serious view that the government and the Fed will do everything to prop up homeowners as they are such a large segment of the economy/society, and thus the homeowner's financing risk is actually pretty low, and continued house appreciation almost a sure thing. There is nothing that I could say to that, but I think he is right, well, as long as this money-pumping game remains feasible. Even if things fall apart, real property is called "real" for a reason. Many homeowners will have the stamina to go through that, and everybody thinks/hopes they will not be among the others.

Truth is a kind and gentle lie.

A room without books is like a body without a soul.

Often the test of courage is not to die, but to live.

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