In this morning's Washington Post, beneath Mike Allen and Jonathan Weisman's byline, I read:
Bush Choice for Manufacturing Post in Question (washingtonpost.com): In late afternoon, the administration announced that the new assistant secretary of commerce for manufacturing and services would be named at a ceremony this morning. Industry officials were told that the job would go to Anthony F. Raimondo, chairman and chief executive of a Nebraska company that makes metal buildings and grain silos...
But last September 4 the Washington Post's Al Kamen reported:
Not So 'New' After All (washingtonpost.com): President Bush announced Monday that he is creating a new position of manufacturing czar, otherwise known as the assistant secretary of commerce for manufacturing and services, to focus on boosting the faltering manufacturing sector. Turns out this is not really so new, congressional and Commerce Department folks say. The existing post of assistant commerce secretary for trade development will get the new name, along with some new functions.... "I guess we can't say the new manufacturing initiative has created at least one new job after all," a Senate Republican aide quipped to our colleague Jonathan Weisman. And the change apparently was not Bush's idea. It was mandated in the House version of the 2004 Commerce, Justice and State appropriations bill....
The most pathetic thing is that Senate Republican aides were laughing at this "new" assistant secretary with Jonathan Weisman last September. Yet today his byline is over words that take the administration's claims to be establishing a new (rather than renaming an old) piece of the federal bureaucracy with a straight face. What would it cost him to write "... announced that Anthony F. Raimondo would be nominated to be the assistant secretary of commerce for manufacturing and services (a renamed version with expanded responsibilities of the job formerly called the assistant secretary for trade development)"?
But wait, there's more. Later on in the article, we read:
Last month, the White House had to disavow its own estimate that 2.6 million jobs would be created this year...
For the ninety-third time: "This year" is 2004. The administration Troika macroeconomic forecast--the forecast reported in the Economic Report of the President, made and approved by the CEA, OMB, Treasury, and NEC, and that underlies all the administration's budget calculations--is that payroll employment will grow by 3.8 million this year, not 2.6 million. The 2.6 million is calculated by falsely and erroneously misinterpreting the 132.7 million number in the 2004 line of Economic Report of the President Table 3-1 as a year-end number and not the year-average number that it is.
Now the White House wants us to misinterpret the 132.7 million number as a year-end number because the real employment growth forecast--3.8 million new payroll employment jobs in 2004--is ridiculously highballed. To get a complaisant press to misinterpret the table and so cut that number by a third to a less optimistic and more comfortable 2.6 million is a major win for White House Media Affairs.
The mystery is why Weisman, after more than a month, has still not figured out that the real calendar-year 2004 employment growth forecast was not 2.6 but 3.8 million--or is at least pretending that he has not figured this out. What would it cost him to write 3.8 million rather than 2.6 million?
In both cases, these are trivial changes to the wording of the article. To call the assistant secretaryship a renamed rather than a new post is something that was reported in the Post last September 4. To point out that the job growth forecast for 2004 was not 2.6 million--a high but livable 217,000 a month on average--but 3.8 million--a bizarre 320,000 a month--was something that the Wall Street Journal's Greg Ip (an excellent reporter) had figured out within eight hours of the release of the Economic Report of the President early last February.
And these changes would have the added advantage of being true, and of conveying accurate information to the readers of the Washington Post.
So what is the upside to the article as it stands? Why pretend that the administration has created a new assistant secretaryship with associated staff to deal with these issues when everyone who reads Al Kamen has known different for six months? Why pretend that that administration's now-disavowed employment forecast was a third lower than it actually was?
"You've got to understand, Brad," said one journalism insider this morning, "The story is already strongly anti-Bush. The story is already astonishingly strongly anti-Bush for this millennium's Post. The story says that the Bush administration has been on the defensive over economic issues like the jobs forecast, and that the administration has panicked and is thinking about pulling Raimondo's nomination. If the story also said that Raimondo's job isn't even a new job just a renamed old job that the Bushies are trying to get everyone to think is a new job. If the story also said that the 2.6 million number they ran away from was already a big step away from their original real 3.8 million job growth forecast. Then the story wouldn't be 'Bush administration on the defensive on economic issues.' It would be 'Bush administration ridiculously mendacious, ludicrously confused, and utterly incompetent on economic issues.'" Exactly. That is the real story, after all.
Posted by DeLong at March 11, 2004 10:06 AM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this postThe Kerry Administration has to establish a payback policy once they are in. Reporters who were complete toadies like Weissman should be held incommunicado. No leaks, no invites, no nothing. Since they only respond to threats it should be made clear that people who completely toady to the Republicans are facing the end of their career once we regain power. That is the only way to change their behavior.
Posted by: CalDem on March 11, 2004 10:14 AMAnd the rest of the story why Raimondo's appointment is "delayed": the Kerry campaign pointed out that Raimondo's company had laid off a number of workers last year, and opened up a factory in China. "The gang that couldn't shoot straight" doesn't approach describing the Bush administration.
Charles
Posted by: charles on March 11, 2004 10:30 AMIt makes you wonder whether most reporters nowadays (and not just the publishers) are in their secret heart-of-hearts Republicans, or at least economic royalists.
BTW, Kerry's not going to win if he allows much daylight between himself and the President on Iraq; let's hope he starts moving to the center pronto!
Posted by: Luke Lea on March 11, 2004 10:42 AMAs a 25 year resident of DC and daily reader of the Post I am not the least bit surprised by the Post's unwillingness to report the truth about the Bush administration. Even casual review of the paper's editorial and news coverage since Katherine Graham turned over the reins to her son Donald reveals a deep and pervasive conservatism that would come as a shock to those who read the paper 10 years ago.
The Post was an early and uncritical supporter of the war with Iraq, has consistently hid stories about WMD deception on page A18, has been muted in its critique of the deeply irresponsible tax cuts, and has generally fawned over Bush's "leadership." Reporters of my acquaintance know what will and will not make it past editors and increasingly that means being less than forthright about the Bush administration's manifest shortcomings.
Posted by: dmh on March 11, 2004 10:52 AMWant to see more of Jonathan Weisman's bias?
Check out this line from Weisman in an article dealing with the recent Senate vote to require a super majority for new tax cuts:
"In rare appearances, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), the presumed Democratic nominee for president, and his vanquished rival, Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), showed up to cast votes for the measure."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48201-2004Mar10.html
Rare appearances? This line is a single paragraph with absolutely nothing else describing what he meant. No background. Weisman is a hack.
Posted by: manyoso on March 11, 2004 10:53 AMBrad, CalDem, and Luke,
Whoa. Hold on. The journalist cited in Brad's post has a good point - this is no Bush campaign press release. It's pretty negative. It even cites the administration backing off the 2.6 million figure, even though that wasn't directly related to the story of this appointment, and they could have easily left that out if the authors were seeking to avoid making Bush look bad.
As for Weisman getting the figures right: Brad, a 2/24 WaPost article, which says that Weisman contributed to it, has this to say:
"Economists agree that economic forecasts are often unreliable, but they say there is at least one plausible explanation for the discrepancies of recent years: The Bush administration, like the Clinton administration before it and like most private economists, assumed that tax revenue and jobs would rise or fall with the gross domestic product in the same proportions as they had in previous recoveries.
But, because of structural changes in the economy such as soaring gains in productivity, the historical patterns have not held. Job growth and tax receipts were badly underestimated in the boom of the late 1990s, and overestimated since 2000, even as the economy has begun to improve.
Robert D. Reischauer, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office, said that the administration has been "a little exuberant" in its forecasts but that the problem is more a statistical one. "The patterns that prevailed before don't seem to be holding in this current recovery," Reischauer said.
Figures released by the White House show that its overestimate of job creation in 2003 was the largest forecast error made in at least 15 years, and its 2002 underestimate of the deficit was the largest in at least 21 years. But the statistics show that forecast errors began to increase considerably around 1997, under the Clinton administration. By contrast, the Bush administration's GDP forecasts have been relatively accurate, indicating job growth and tax receipts have shed their historical correlation to GDP growth."
[sorry - can't get html to work. Url is http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A538-2004Feb23¬Found=true ]
Is that true? Even if it doesn't explain Weisman's failure to cite the 3.8 million figure, does it partially exonerate the Administration for its numbers?
Posted by: Brendan Lynch on March 11, 2004 10:59 AMNah. the 3.8 million number for job growth in 2004 is *way* out there. I can't think of a way to make it even minimally consistent with productivity trends and their GDP growth estimate.
Posted by: Brad DeLong on March 11, 2004 11:03 AMSadly, your journalist friend hits it just about right. The mainstream press sacrifices a lot in the cause of projecting a faux impartiality. At times, such as this example, it means decreased accuracy so as not to appear to be piling-on. Far more often --- and more tiresome --- you get this "on the one hand" & "on the other hand" style of reporting that makes every issue look like a matter of opinion. It's a silly conceit under the best of circumstances, and completely inappropriate when dealing with people as completely ungrounded in reality as the current administration, e.g., "Most people believe the earth is round, but some say it's not." [Oh wait, I forgot, it's not the roundness of the earth they don't accept, it's evolution, Newton's laws, Econ 101....]
What's ironic is that the one fortunate person in this particular act of the clown show is Raimondo, who now likely will not be put into a no-win position: poster child for the manufacturing jobs which will continue to be lost.
Posted by: cogito on March 11, 2004 11:17 AMI'm inclined to agree with Prof. DeLong's correspondent that there's hardly a ray of light for the administration in the story, and so connecting the additional dots has an aspect of gilding the lily. Then again, I completely agree with dmh about the Post's overall direction (look at today's Kerry flip-flop editorial, which has barely more balance than an RNC press release). Besides, the reporters are notionally professionals and Prof. DeLong is not their mom, so (as the infamous e-mail goes) [expleted deleted] 'em if they can't take the criticism.
Brendan -- One thing to note is the forecast error direction. The late Clinton ERPs were forecasting relatively moderate payroll employment growth (e.g., +1.3M in the annual average between 1999 and 2000), and so undershot reality until the effects of the recession kicked in. Perhaps they should have increased their near-term forecasts, who knows. But, by the same logic, the current administration's forecasts of employment growth should have been adjusted downwards, noting Prof. DeLong's comment (elaborated elsewhere) that you can't get those magnitudes of employment growth from reasonable assumptions on macro variables.
Posted by: Tom Bozzo on March 11, 2004 11:27 AMOh, the +1.3M 1999-2000 forecast is from p. 87 of the 1999 (FY 2000) ERP.
Posted by: Tom Bozzo on March 11, 2004 11:30 AMWeisman got off to a bad start at the Post puffing up Glenn Hubbard, making him sound reasonable for claiming that deficits don't matter and that therefore we ought to have a dividend tax cut no matter what the consequences. As far as I can tell, he's been basically kissing Bushco ass ever since. Fuck him.
I hope he and all the other reporters who sold their souls and their integrity for access to Bushco are rewarded by getting no access to the Kerry Administration.
Posted by: Chris on March 11, 2004 11:33 AMLuke Lea,
I don't think it's so much that journalists identify with a particular party, as that, by the mores of the new "professional" journalism, the journalist is supposed to report official pronouncements as straight news, along with a quote from an official spokesman of "the other side." If the reporter attempts independent access to the factual realm, or subjects the statements of public figures to a factual test, it is seen as taking sides.
David Halberstam (I forget the source) once said that the professional "objectivity" of journalists translated, in practice, into an artificial pose of credulity or naivete toward
official statements.
I think it was Brad DeLong himself who cited a report, in this forum, that Pentagon reporter Tom Ricks was officially denounced because he "casts his net as widely as possible and e-mails many people," and failed to "give enough credence to official, on-the-record comments that ran counter to the angle of his stories."
Then, too, doing independent factual digging takes resources, and risks alienating advertisers. And by reporting official statements as straight news, the press has more resources available to devote to Laci Peterson, Kobe Bryant, and Janet's tit.
So you wind up with newspapers in which the majority of column inches are filled with the output of government and corporate PR departments. And foreign correspondents write their copy in hotel rooms from press handouts helpfully provided by the U.S. embassy.
Sam Smith, for this reason, said that the written word was the most neglected source in modern journalism.
One of the best critiques of the professional culture of journalism was made by Justin Lewis:
"The norms of 'objective reporting'... involve presenting 'both sides' of an issue with very little in the way of independent forms of verification... [A] journalist who systematically attempts to verify facts--to say which set of facts is more accurate--runs the risk of being acused of abandoning their objectivity by favoring one side over another....
"....[J]ournalists who try to be faithful to an objective model of reporting are simultaneously distancing themselves from the notion of independently verifiable truth....
"The 'two sides' model of journalistic objectivity makes news reporting a great deal easier since it requires no recourse to a factual realm. There are no facts to check, no archives of unspoken information to sort through.... If Tweedledum fails to challenge a point made by Tweedledee, the point remains unchallenged."
"Objectivity and the Limits of Press Freedom" Project Censored Yearbook 2000. pp. 173-74
BDL: "Nah. the 3.8 million number for job growth in 2004 is *way* out there. I can't think of a way to make it even minimally consistent with productivity trends and their GDP growth estimate."
If you read Suskind's book, and his earlier Esquire article, "Why are These Men Laughing?" you have to come away with some serious questions about the administration's policy-making processes. If Suskind is even half right then the 3.8 million number was almost certainly chosen because that's "what it has to be" for there to be more people at work on election day than when Bush took office. Nothing else would matter, and no one even bothered to check the consequences of such an assertion.
Can we please get us some REAL conservative Republicans at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.? People like Bob Dole, Warren Rudman, Brent Scowcroft, etc. who understand that their decisions have consequences and occasionally need to be modified based on verifiable facts.
Instead we have a complete triumph of ideology over competence. There's no telling how far down the bottom of this hole goes.
Posted by: cogito on March 11, 2004 11:36 AMHrrm, interesting catch.
Posted by: Stirling Newberry on March 11, 2004 11:48 AMYour insider journalist friend has put his finger on the problem right there. The fucking truth is just too bad for these guys to report! Too bad for who? And if you were really a journalist why would you give a fuck? Utterly completely disgusting.
Posted by: SW on March 11, 2004 12:47 PMActually in a recent article, I saw Weisman make exactly the correct distinction between the year over year averages, and the addition from January to Dec of this year. So perhaps he is just using sloppy shorthand or being absent-minded. I guess that's not much of a defense, but he did get it right at least once.
Posted by: Max on March 11, 2004 01:05 PMFor what it's worth, I'm not sure that you're not being hypercritical on the manufacturing post line. Unless it says more farther down, the part you quoted just says that Mr Raimondo will be named "the new assistant secretary of commerce", which is phrasing you'd use whether the job was new or old.
Of course, I can't seem to get WaPo to accept my log-in at the moment.
Kevin Carson:
"Luke Lea,
I don't think it's so much that journalists identify with a particular party, as that, by the mores of the new "professional" journalism, the journalist is supposed to report official pronouncements as straight news, along with a quote from an official spokesman of "the other side." If the reporter attempts independent access to the factual realm, or subjects the statements of public figures to a factual test, it is seen as taking sides."
Considering that these journalists were repeated and consistent suckers for GOP lies about Clinton through 8 long years, this 'new' standard must have come into being about January 21, 2001. Very, very convenient for the GOP.
Re: "Actually in a recent article, I saw Weisman make exactly the correct distinction between the year over year averages, and the addition from January to Dec of this year. So perhaps he is just using sloppy shorthand or being absent-minded. I guess that's not much of a defense, but he did get it right at least once."
That's not a defense, that's a conviction. If he's grasped the difference between year-over-year changes and calendar-year growth rates, then there's no reason for him to ever say "2.6 million" unless he's taking a dive and doing his friends in the White House a favor by trimming back the degree of overoptimism in their forecast.
Shorter JournalismInsider:
"Newspaper stories should only be partially true."
Posted by: V from VJ on March 11, 2004 02:36 PMLynch quotes Weisman in defense of Weisman:
"But, because of structural changes in the economy such as soaring gains in productivity, the historical patterns have not held."
Do you suppose it was a case of unconcious self-editing on Weisman's part that he did not mention, along with "soaring gains in productivity" that other big new thing we are seeing the effects of: free trade with China?
Or would Brad opine that this has nothing to do with the problem?
Posted by: Luke Lea on March 11, 2004 02:53 PM
Lynch quotes Weisman in defense of Weisman:
"But, because of structural changes in the economy such as soaring gains in productivity, the historical patterns have not held."
Do you suppose it was a case of unconcious self-editing on Weisman's part that he did not mention, along with "soaring gains in productivity" that other big new thing we are seeing the effects of: free trade with China?
Or would Brad opine that this has nothing to do with the problem?
Posted by: Luke Lea on March 11, 2004 02:58 PM
Brad writes refers above to "the forecast reported in the Economic Report of the President, made and approved by the CEA, OMB, Treasury, and NEC." This forecast was also approved by Bush: his signature is on page 4 of the report. Or is he taking a Ken Lay defense saying that he signed it without reading or understanding it?
Posted by: BayMike on March 11, 2004 03:35 PMI believe that all reporters realize now that their job requires figuring out what the boss wants to hear and giving it to him. The worst reporters aren't even aware that there's a problem with that; the boss is the boss. The serious reporters (dmh's friends) deal with it as best they can.
Whatever is done will be justified on grounds of professional neutrality when possible. Or it can be justified on fluffy, cynical grounds -- we're really just entertainers selling papers. Or on skeptical grounds -- who really knows? It's all just a game.
But since the decisions on slant are NOT made by the reporters, the reasons they give for why they do what they do are irrelevant. They really aren't independent agents, but agents of the boss. You have to ask management. (Perhaps the most cynical and beaten reporters will tell you exactly what's going on).
It's sort of like on of those neuroscience experiments where people whose activities are being controlled by others using electrodes in their brain are always able to explain their motivations for what they do.
I think that the fact that most reporters vote Democratic, even when their paper slants Republican, is a function of the fact that, for people who do the hands-on work and have the facts at hand, the Republican slant is not tenable. Far from showing press bias, it shows us that the high-level media people and the Republicans are trying to sell us a bill of goods.
Posted by: Zizka on March 11, 2004 07:16 PMBrad:
"It would be 'Bush administration ridiculously mendacious, ludicrously confused, and utterly incompetent on economic issues."
How many copy editors need be sacrificed to the journalism gods to be able to see that headline in print?
dmh:
"Even casual review of the paper's editorial and news coverage since Katherine Graham turned over the reins to her son Donald reveals a deep and pervasive conservatism that would come as a shock to those who read the paper 10 years ago."
No sh*t. For several years after I moved to CA I kept up my Post subscription. (Bay Area journalism being the cosmic joke that it is.) Katy's retirement ended that exercise. When I was no longer able to tell the Post editorials from the WSJ's, I decided I no longer needed the subscription.
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