March 11, 2004

Today's Fun Chart from Max Sawicky

Yes, the Bush tax cuts are a very big deal. Max Sawicky graphs Richard Kogan's projections of the debt/GDP ratio:

MaxSpeak, You Listen!: Today's fun chart shows the difference in Federal debt (held by the public) with and without the tax cuts enacted since 2001. Numbers underlying the red bars assume tax cuts with phase-outs are made permanent and include a fix for the anticipated increases in the Alternative Minimum Tax. Source data were prepared by Richard Kogan of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, who is not responsible for my value-added, such as it is. "Rescinded" is not exactly the right word in the chart, since the meaning is if the tax cuts had never happened.

The data are based on current forecasts and projections, so they do not suffer from the errors in predictions of $5.6 trillion surpluses made in January 2001. The assumed spending is actual and baseline. It does not include some of the President's new tax cut proposals (those not tied to extending already enacted cuts). With slower spending growth the contrast between scenarios would be more stark, though obviously MaxSpeak is not opposed to the non-defense spending increases that took place...

Posted by DeLong at March 11, 2004 10:56 AM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

Is there a reason for taking Social Security out of the calculation? One could argue that it is just another creditor not much different from other bond holders. If Social Security Trust fund were included, the current $7 trillion debt would start at over 60% of GDP.

Posted by: bakho on March 11, 2004 11:12 AM

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Where is Arthur Laffer when Bush needs him?

Posted by: non economist on March 11, 2004 02:25 PM

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bakho-

...because Treasury bonds in the SS Trust are not held by the public?

Some of the public, i.e. working age citizens, are holding onto a promise from the Federal government for retirement insurance benefits payable at some time in the future. What people like me are actually holding here is substantially lower quality debt than U.S. Treasury debt. That's why we don't count the SS Trust as "just another creditor" — it isn't just another creditor, and the bonds it holds are not just another part of the Public Debt. It's the government borrowing from itself (not the only place in its financial structure where this happens, by the way).

Posted by: s9 on March 11, 2004 02:38 PM

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Why does the size of the debt matter? Isn't it the size of the carrying cost of that debt that is the real issue in budgetary terms?

Posted by: Arnold Williams on March 11, 2004 03:44 PM

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And can we have a similar graph of Japan here? In demographics they are leading us. In debt/GNP they are also leading us. How they can support us to the tune of $100B so far this year without inflating their currency is beyond me.

Posted by: calmo on March 11, 2004 04:37 PM

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It is intersting to see how little difference the Bush cuts make in the big picture when compared to GAO's pre-Bush cuts, pre-recession projections showing *annual* deficits hitting 20% of GDP (the size of today's entire federal gov't budget) and rocketing straight upward around 2045 -- due to spending on Medicare and Social Security then exceeding 20% of GDP.

The total difference in the national debt after 10 years on this chart is just a tad larger than one year's annual deficit on GAO's pre-Bush cut projection for then, when GAO cuts off its projection because the situation is "unstainable".

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