March 11, 2004

Jared Diamond Visits Easter Island

Jared Diamond writes about ecological catastrophe and social collapse on Easter Island:

The New York Review of Books: Twilight at Easter: No other site that I have visited made such a ghostly impression on me as did Rano Raraku, the quarry on Easter Island where its famous gigantic stone statues were carved. To begin with, the island is the world's most remote habitable scrap of land, lying far out in the southeastern Pacific Ocean, 2,300 miles west of the coast of Chile and 1,300 miles east of Pitcairn Island. Rano Raraku itself is a volcanic crater six hundred yards in diameter, which I entered by a trail rising steeply up to the crater rim from the plain outside, and then dropping steeply down again toward the marshy lake on the crater floor. No one lives in the vicinity today.

Scattered over the crater's walls are 397 stone statues, each representing in a stylized way a long-eared legless human male torso, most of them 15 to 20 feet tall, the largest of them 70 feet tall (taller than the average modern five-story building), and weighing from 10 to 270 tons. The remains of a transport road can be discerned passing out of the crater through a notch cut into a low point in its rim, from which three more roads radiate north, south, and west for up to nine miles toward Easter's coasts.

Scattered along the roads are ninety-seven more statues, as if abandoned in transport from the quarry. Along the coast are 113 stone platforms that formerly supported or were associated with 393 more statues, all of which (until the recent re-erection of a few) were no longer standing but had been thrown down, many of them toppled and deliberately broken at the neck...

Posted by DeLong at March 11, 2004 02:39 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

What people forget when arguing that Malthus was wrong (well, it hasn't happened yet, so therefore he was wrong!) is that there are numerous examples in the historical record of the collapse of societies due to ecological over-reach.

Diamond points out a number of these in his books and articles.

D

Posted by: Dano on March 11, 2004 02:44 PM

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While I can see the lesson the author is not-so-subtly trying to drive home, I can also see a society destroyed by massive and useless public works projects instead of productive activity. ;)

Posted by: tbrosz on March 11, 2004 02:53 PM

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Tbrosz,

What would be productive activity?

Sustainable Development? Could you define the concept?

Building Roads to foster sprawl. Is that productive?

Building Dams for energy, but killing a renewable food source like salmon. Is that productive?


Taking over a country to get their non-renewable asset called oil. Is that productive?

Buying cheap crap instead of high quality, long lasting merchandise. Is that productive?

Proposing a space program, while we blot out the stars with pollution. Is that productive?

Mr. Diamond's works do have a tone and a message, which seems to be empirically and intuitively obvious - Live Sustainably or Die!

Posted by: Greg Hunter on March 11, 2004 03:36 PM

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in re the review, I'm glad De Long posted it. I hadn't kept up; the last time I heard about Easter was one of those 60s-era 'mysteries of the world' programs rerun on public television.

Easter's story makes you think.

in re tb, he's a troll. trolls make you stop thinking. ignore trolls.

Posted by: wcw on March 11, 2004 04:04 PM

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Clive Ponting in his Green History of the World writes about Easter Island's sad tale as earth's canary in the mine.

Posted by: M. Tullius on March 11, 2004 04:24 PM

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This is one of the faults of mainstream economics. It tends to assume that environmental externalities are fringe, not central concerns.. But the plain fact is that we do not know enough about natural processes to make this assumption. Our models of climate and especially ecology suck. And its a bit of a gambler's ruin problem. As long as we keep guessing right that further natural degradation won't have serious impacts on our welfare than we are reinforced in the notion that our impacts aren't too big. But one big wrong guess could result in huge consequences. I.e right now we are putting all our money on the idea that Global Warming won't affect the gulf stream and radically alter Europe's climate.

Posted by: CalDem on March 11, 2004 04:42 PM

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One interesting story, a popular BBC program maker, acquired one of the original carvings from Easter Island, of one of the gods. It had no history so he bought it quite cheaply, He then went around the world establishing its provenance, all the while making a program about it, finally establishing the provenace, and getting paid for the work by having the program on air.

Posted by: big al on March 11, 2004 04:43 PM

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Paul Theroux had a similar riff in "The Happy Isles of Oceania," in which he discussed the dietary succession on Pacific lslands; starting with the larger animals, then smaller animals, then birds, then humans. Look forward to reading Mr. Diamond's new book -- still having fun with "Guns, Germs and Steel."

Posted by: Jim Shirk on March 11, 2004 04:48 PM

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My mistake -- it's a review, not a new book, but still impressive.

Posted by: Jim Shirk on March 11, 2004 04:55 PM

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I'd be interested to hear tbrosz's theories about how the ancient easter islanders were actually following a highly programmed proto-scheme for social democratic organization of society, ignoring the benefits of free-market libertarian ideology, which inevitably led to the collapse of their ecosystem. It would make about as much sense as any of his other rantings.

Posted by: non economist on March 11, 2004 06:06 PM

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The most depressing part of the story of what happened on Rapanui is that the unsustainable economy continued until well after it could not have been more obvious that the economy was unsustainable.

Sorta makes you wonder about the possibility of *rational* allocation of resources in the presence of scarcity, doesn't it?

Posted by: s9 on March 11, 2004 06:35 PM

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Define 'rational'. No, I'm not being a troll, I'm serious.

Posted by: Jeff Lawson on March 11, 2004 09:28 PM

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CalDem wrote:

This is one of the faults of mainstream economics. It tends to assume that environmental externalities are fringe, not central concerns.. But the plain fact is that we do not know enough about natural processes to make this assumption. Our models of climate and especially ecology suck.

[...]

Not having precise knowledge such as what you imply we need doesn't preclude not acting (in the broad sense of your post). We know enough.

Politicians act on far less information every day, as do economists. I wonder what consequences their wrong guesses have.

We do not need ecological models to act. In fact, scenario analysis is better, because it allows for uncertainty and adaptive (flexible) management.

We know what externalities are bad; just because they can't be precisely calculated today doesn't mean we can't start reducing them.

D

Posted by: Dano on March 11, 2004 11:05 PM

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Lowdermilk, _The Conquest of the Land through 7,000 Years _ (a Soil Conservation bulletin) makes the Easter Island point, only on a much larger scale. He goes through several ancient civilizations and shows how they outstripped their natural resource base. Writing in the late 1940s, he thought the Green Revolution would save us; I doubt he'd think so today. A copy of _Conquest_ is at:

http://www.nativehabitat.org/conquest-1.html

Posted by: Batavicus on March 12, 2004 06:44 AM

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Danno,
that's my point, I am critiscizing mainstream economics. Mainstream economists tend to be hesitant to reccomend action because the central scenarios from ecological/global warming models don't look so bad-ignoring the uncertainty in those models. Even people like Brad who recognize this point spend almost all their time worrying about issues like trade, human capital, and technological development. Environmental economists are for the most part not the big figures in economics, so as a consequence mainstream economists think of environmental concerns as fringe issues. So the profession doesn't think about what happens when we role the ecological dice and come up snake eyes. It assumes that since we have been fine so far, we will continue to be fine.

Posted by: CalDem on March 12, 2004 09:37 AM

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Greg Hunter

"Proposing a space program, while we blot out the stars with pollution. Is that productive?"


You could admit the possibility that extracting resources from the rest of the solar system is preferable to strip mining the Rockies.

Posted by: Brian on March 13, 2004 10:27 AM

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Brian Wrote:

"You could admit the possibility that extracting resources from the rest of the solar system is preferable to strip mining the Rockies."

In theory yes, but in as far as the most efficient form of energy known to man is based on decaying carbon life forms (coal, oil), I doubt we will harvest anything that will have a positive return on the energy investment you propose.

We appear to be at a point in society where we could slow down on the space exploration and focus on proposing an economy that is based on a stagnate or declining population, also known as sustainable development. We do not have to give up fish, good food, the internet, but we may have to slow down our own individual transporation needs. Life could be great for all people (as well as plants and animals), if we give up a few luxuries.

Posted by: Greg Hunter on March 13, 2004 11:23 AM

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Greg Hunter

"We appear to be at a point in society where we could slow down on the space exploration and focus on proposing an economy that is based on a stagnate or declining population, also known as sustainable development. We do not have to give up fish, good food, the internet, but we may have to slow down our own individual transporation needs. Life could be great for all people (as well as plants and animals), if we give up a few luxuries."

An admirable goal. Good luck getting the rest of the world to agree with you.

If you can get a majority of the world to agree to a program of sustainability, fine. But you'll have to do some fast talking; I suspect that your average third world peasant will see that as "I got mine, you're stuck in a plastic shack, Pedro".

But if you _can't_ get the world to agree, we're going to _need_ resources from space.

As well, a permenant presence elsewhere give the race a margin for error. Should something happen to our species _here_ there will still be people elsewhere to carry on.

Posted by: Brian on March 13, 2004 11:01 PM

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The problem is, the example of Easter Island while interesting has no relevance. No culture is an Island, history shows as resources are wiped out the people simply move or outside influence intervenes. Easter Island is such an extreme exception it is almost not even worth considering as an example for how other cultures can develop.

Posted by: Stephen Balbach on March 14, 2004 10:18 AM

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You know what's interesting about Washington? It's the kind of place where second-guessing has become second nature.

Posted by: Cutler Betsy on May 2, 2004 05:10 PM

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Even a philosopher gets upset with a toothache.

Posted by: Bergman Peter on May 3, 2004 04:07 AM

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There is no great genius without some touch of madness.

Posted by: Leo Kristen on May 20, 2004 02:45 PM

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Newness is relative.

Posted by: Rosenstiel Donna on June 30, 2004 07:59 AM

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