Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

What's an appropriate response?

btw, it's not actually called the Manchester Guardian anymore

I don't think that the public understands that the Bush tax cuts are being charged to the nation's credit card, so to speak. I would like to see a Democrat TV spot that drives this home.

People might respond if they understood that it is their children who are being burdened with this debt. Perhaps show some little kids shuffling along dragging ball-and-chains labelled "Bush debt".

The idea behind this, so I've read, is that Kerry's proposals for education and health care will cost $900B over some number of years. So they're assuming he'll raise taxes to pay for it.

Therefore it's now legit to say Bush is raising your taxes by going to war, by passing a medicare benefit, by proposing to deform Social Security, and most of all, he raised your taxes by cutting taxes.

Hey, it's their argument.

t-news, they have this ad. It's called "Child's Pay" It's the one that won the MoveOn contest, and if I'm not mistaken, it's what they were intending to show during the Super Bowl.

http://www.bushin30seconds.org/view/01_small.shtml

It should be easy to wave off charges of estimated tax increases from a gang who have not been able to make a single coherant prediction in three years of trying. Who could believe any economic numbers they put out. In fact if they say Kerry is going to raise taxes I fully expect that he will not.

Where's Barro?

"See? $1 trillion more in taxes over the next decade. I've seen other sources that put this number as high as $2 trillion. I'm sure I could dig up many similar numbers given time."

I see, we have two choices - tax the rich for 1 trillion.

Borrow 1 trillion from the rich and pay back two trillion. Taxing who?

"See? $1 trillion more in taxes over the next decade. I've seen other sources that put this number as high as $2 trillion. I'm sure I could dig up many similar numbers given time."

I see, we have two choices - tax the rich for 1 trillion.

Borrow 1 trillion from the rich and pay back two trillion. Taxing who?

Arnold, you do realize that the recession ended 27 months ago?

tbrosz, just out of curiosity, since you oppose any tax hike on principle, what's your list of spending cuts that restores fiscal sanity?

Arnold Williams wrote, "Oddly enough, I thought most economists ADVOCATED cutting taxes and running deficits in a recession. Mr. DeLong must think Keynes is nuts."

You don't understand the nature of Bush's tax cuts.

First, Bush's tax cuts are permanent, whereas one would want a Keynesian tax cut to be temporary.

Much worse, Bush's tax cuts are *backloaded*, so that many of them become more substantial as time goes on. Exactly the opposite of what a Keynesian would ask for.

tbrosz wrote, "You and others have been pushing so many grossly inflated loss numbers for the government resulting from Bush's tax cuts..."

Huh? The estimates of losses from Bush's tax cuts are sound. It's the claims of your lot which are fantasy: to wit, that cutting taxes on the wealthy will not reduce revenue nearly as much as it may seem because of incentive effects, etc. There's little to no empirical evidence for this, despite what right-wingers like Marty Feldstein may say.

No evidence? What of the fact that tax receipts have increased this fiscal year compared to the same time period one year ago, before Bush's latest "tax cut for the wealthy"?

Keep believing that...

Chris wrote, "'No evidence? What of the fact that tax receipts have increased this fiscal year compared to the same time period one year ago, before Bush's latest "tax cut for the wealthy"?

First, it's only one data point, so the chance of a post hoc fallacy is extremely high.

Furthermore you haven't controlled for *any* other variables.

For example, the stock market is up this year, so capital gains revenues are presumably higher.

If you want to attribute the rise in tax receipts to an improved market, though, you have to take a look at what's responsible for that improvement. Last I checked, the market spike lined up pretty nicely, timeline-wise, with Bush's tax cuts.

Chris's fallacy is the common one of ignoring leads and lags. You MIGHT be able to make the case that at least SOME of the increase in tax revenues since this time last year is due to the stimulative effect of Bush's tax cuts -- good thing, too, since a stimulative package of that size which had NO positive impact on revenues would be an more disastrous failure than the disastrous failure we actually got.

The payback comes later, as the resulting budget deficits push long-term interest rates (and the current account deficit) higher. Growth slows, tax revenues fall, debt service costs rise. At some point, somebody is either going to have to raise taxes, nuke federal entitlement programs, or let the U.S. government fall into the debt trap.

What's funny is that we've already seen this movie before ("Other People's Money," starring Ronald Reagan and George Bush Sr.) and yet so many people -- like Chris -- just can't grasp the fact the sequal will have the same ending, or worse.

"Leads and lags" -- I'm afraid you'll have to do a bit better than that if you wish to convince me that the surges in both the GDP and the market following Bush's second tax cut are mere coincidence. From my understanding, the cut took effect immediately.

Ah, yes, the ever-present claim that deficits raise interest rates. Funny how Reagan, however, after running deficits throughout his term, left office with them rather low.

Funnier still how interest rates are quite low, in the midst of so-called "record" budget deficits. Just when is this spike in interest rates supposed to show up, I wonder? Theory's all well and good, but the data ought to bear it out.

Also, the CBO budget forecasting model's last projection (if I'm remembering correctly; this is all off the top of my head) had the deficit reducing each year after this one, eventually resulting in surpluses a little over a decade from now.

If the economy keeps growing (which it seems poised to do), I see no reason why we cannot eliminate the deficit. Debt's a tool, after all; you wouldn't fault someone for taking out student loans. The question, then, is whether we've gone into debt for the right reason; among other things, some very stimulative tax cuts. I think it's a fine reason.

Excellent! But as I listened to this GOP ad - it seemed that they were saying Kerry did not back Bush on Iraq 100%. Does the GOP really wish to remind us that Bush lied to get us to focus on Saddam rather than Al Qaeda?

If all the GDP gains go to those who already rich, and the middle class shrinks, the rich will certainly have to pay for a far larger army, to keep order at home. Bet me.
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'Child's Pay' is brilliant, but too subtle to be effective, in part because too many Americans have grown immune to thinking of debt -- on a state and personal level -- as something that needs to be paid off.

Perhaps a more effective ad might show the repo-men coming to collect US assets. There could be accusations of racism in that ad, because the repo-men would be the SE Asian economies that invest in US debt. But analogising Dubyanomics to a Chinese repo-man taking your TV is more likely to hit home with most buy-now-pay-in-2010 Americans than images suggesting their children will have to pay off the deficit.

(And I like the fact that DeLong still uses the historical name for the Grauniad.)

> Debt's a tool, after all; you wouldn't fault someone for taking out student loans.

You would if they spent the money on keg parties for the richest fratboys and then flunked out. And that's your Bush economic policy in a nutshell: money pissed away for favours to the fratboys.

Also, the CBO budget forecasting model's last projection (if I'm remembering correctly; this is all off the top of my head)

Yes, and a very small place it is, too. CBO's budget projections do NOT include:

1.) Cost of making Bush's tax cuts permanent, as some of them inevitably will be.

2.) Cost of fixing the AMT

3.) Cost of domestic spending growth (which includes defense and homeland security) above and beyond the absurdly low level that CBO is required by law to assume (but that Congress is cannot be forced to follow).

And yet CBO's projections still show a cumulative on-budget deficits of $4.3 trillion between 2005 and 2014, and an annual on-budget deficit that still equals $278 billion in that final year.

What makes the budget picture look less than completely catastrophic, of course, are the off-budget social security surpluses, which the government has been happily borrowing for most of the past two decades (the last few years of the Clinton administration excepted).

But we all know what starts to happen a few years after the CBO's current long-term forecast ends -- the boomers start to retire, and all that money is going to have to be paid back. Deficit crisis a go go.

Debt's a tool, after all; you wouldn't fault someone for taking out student loans. The question, then, is whether we've gone into debt for the right reason; among other things, some very stimulative tax cuts. I think it's a fine reason.

Actually I WOULD fault them, if they took out loans far beyond their ability to pay back out of their expected life time earnings. And as far as tax cuts being "very" stimulative, go look at the trend in industrial capacity utilization and labor force participation and then come back and repeat that statement. Then we can both have a good laugh.

Reason isn't your forte, Chris. I'd stick to simplistic dogma. That you do well.

P.S. Re your point about interest rates. The question isn't whether they are low by nominal historical standards, the question is whether the are low enough in real terms to keep the economy reasonably close to full employment. And what the bond market (and now the stock market) seem to be saying recently is that they are not.

"Yes, and a very small place it is, too."

I guess this is what passes for intelligent debate around here. Grow up.

"CBO's budget projections do NOT include:"

I'm not claiming they're perfect, but then again, it's not as if this is a minor discrepancy. There's a pretty big gap between that forecast's projections, and the sky-is-falling picture you seem to be painting. And this is the same organization, I'll remind you, that OVERshot predictions on 2003's deficit by roughly $80 billion.

"But we all know what starts to happen a few years after the CBO's current long-term forecast ends -- the boomers start to retire, and all that money is going to have to be paid back. Deficit crisis a go go."

If the economy continues this rate of growth, we won't have a crisis. Sometimes I wonder if economists (both amateur and professional) have some kind of kneejerk aversion to any solution which is not outrageously complicated.

"Actually I WOULD fault them, if they took out loans far beyond their ability to pay back out of their expected life time earnings. And as far as tax cuts being "very" stimulative, go look at the trend in industrial capacity utilization and labor force participation and then come back and repeat that statement. Then we can both have a good laugh."

Yes, I saw Brad's entry on labor force participation. I've got my contentions with that, actually, but I'll leave those aside for the moment, and merely note that I must've missed the "GDP is no longer an indicator of economic growth" memo.

"Reason isn't your forte, Chris. I'd stick to simplistic dogma. That you do well."

Childish put-downs aren't yours. If you think I'm wrong, great; I welcome questioning. I do not, however, welcome immature little jabs from people whose knowledge of me consists of two of three random comments on a blog. Those who believe the truth is on their side don't usually need to employ anything else.

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"P.S. Re your point about interest rates. The question isn't whether they are low by nominal historical standards, the question is whether the are low enough in real terms to keep the economy reasonably close to full employment. And what the bond market (and now the stock market) seem to be saying recently is that they are not."

I don't have the capacity to do the research now (tonight, perhaps), but last I looked they were low by virtually any standard. They were at a 27-year low, as a matter-of-fact.

"sweet jesus billmon!

i dont know how the hell you have time to be so prolific on your own brilliant blog, hold down a job, have a family, and still have time to spare for coordinated repeat smackdowns of inane trolls in remote parts of the blogosphere.

you f*cking rock!"

It's the cheerleading. It's all the motivation he needs.

"It's the cheerleading. It's all the motivation he needs.
Posted by Chris"

This from Mister "Grow up."

LOL

"It's the cheerleading. It's all the motivation he needs."

I suspect that the cheerleading is a small part of it..."smackdown high" and the chance to provide argument frameworks to his minions accounts for the lions share of the motivation.

Plus chris, your transparent and thinly researched talking points are just screaming for attention on a comment board like this. The level of thought and discussion here rise far above that required for your commentary to be taken at face value.

I'm sure your talking points would go over well in freeperville, where they willfully put on bliners to prevent any facts from getting in the way of their perpetual multiple whore-gasms.

People dont smack you down because they "dont like you" or are "being childish" they smack you down because you're saying stupid shit. Including clear references and skillfully crafted arguments will get you alot further than regurgitating talking points ever will.

Cheers.

Also, the CBO budget forecasting model's last projection (if I'm remembering correctly; this is all off the top of my head) had the deficit reducing each year after this one, eventually resulting in surpluses a little over a decade from now.

So you favor letting the tax cuts expire, do you? The assumption that they will expire the reason the projections eventally get back into balance. You also, I presume, favor removing our troops from Iraq and Afghanistan immediately, since those wars are off-budget.

And getting the budget back into balance a decade from now would be damning with the faintest possible praise. Bush inherited a three hundred billion dollar surplus and immediately pissed it away. That a decade from now we will (left to ourselves) recover enough from his ruinous policies to have a balanced budget again -- assuming we let the stop the ruinous policies now and let the mistakes expire, that is -- makes mockery the kindest possible response.

Of course there were minor bumps to the economic indicators as a result of his tax cuts. You're demolishing strawmen: no one ever suggested tax cuts don't help the economy recover from a recession, nor even that the anticipation of reduced tax liability produces short-term bumps in a struggling post-recession economy. The problem we face is that there was so little bang for the enormous buck. The recession ended over two years ago, and the economy -- particularly employment -- remains very weak.

Clinton raised taxes on the wealthiest Americans despite a struggling post-recession economy, because he correctly believed a path to fiscal responsibility would strengthen the existing belief that the economy was improving and could be relied on to continue to improve. It was claimed by Republicans this act would quickly send us back into recession. Time was not kind to that prediction -- governmental fiscal responsibility led to eight years of solid growth.

We got into the mess that Clinton had to fix because of early-80s irresponsibility. Bush has piled three huge tax cuts (and military spending increases) one on top of another, each the size of, or bigger than, the irresponsible 1981 cut.

So -- do you favor fiscal responsibility now? Do you favor letting the tax cuts expire, so that the budget doesn't continue to hemorrhage? Do you support a tax increase, now that the economy is improving, so that we will have a surplus and maneuvering room to cut taxes during the next recession? Do you favor raising the tax money needed to pay for the wars the country is fighting?

sampo: ah, now I think I get it. While I didn't come from some back-patting conservative website, I do have a tendency to look something up, and then fail to cite specific numbers when voicing conclusions based on it. Fair point; thanks for laying it out clearly and concisely.

[b]So you favor letting the tax cuts expire, do you?[/b]

Rather than quote the whole thing, I'll try to summarize a response: no, I don't favor letting them expire, because I believe a permanent cut will result in permanent stimulation, if you get my meaning. I believe that the growth which would result would offset the debt necessary to finance the permanent cuts.

[b]Of course there were minor bumps to the economic indicators as a result of his tax cuts. You're demolishing strawmen: no one ever suggested tax cuts don't help the economy recover from a recession, nor even that the anticipation of reduced tax liability produces short-term bumps in a struggling post-recession economy. The problem we face is that there was so little bang for the enormous buck. The recession ended over two years ago, and the economy -- particularly employment -- remains very weak.[/b]

I do not think such a strong rate of growth (GDP growth at an annualized rate was over 6% in the second half of 2003) can be accurately termed as a "minor bump." Viewed against any modern timeline, it's nothing short of staggering.

Whoops, forgot this...

"P.S. Re your point about interest rates. The question isn't whether they are low by nominal historical standards, the question is whether the are low enough in real terms to keep the economy reasonably close to full employment. And what the bond market (and now the stock market) seem to be saying recently is that they are not."

Which rate are you referring to? Based on your linking of interest rates to employment levels, I can only presume you mean the Fed Funds rate. If so, I detect a hint of Keynesian reasoning here. Lemme guess; the Fed needs to inject more money into the economy to stimulate demand, which will in turn stimulate hiring?

P O'Neill - I've told him before about the "Manchester" thing, and he just won't take it on board. He probably still talks about the "Queen of England", which there hasn't been since 1707.

PML -Yeah and not only that but he's doing "Wheelies" now("This giant wheeling motion in the labor market is then submerged...") . Time for a rest,no?

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