March 11, 2004

Pay No Attention to the Out-of-the-Labor-Force People Behind the Curtain (Yet More Misdirection From National Review Department)

Since June 2003, the household survey estimate of the number of working age Americans has grown by 1.53 million.* During that same period, the household survey estimate of employment has grown by 700 thousand. In order for the employment-to-population ratio to remain constant, a 1.53 million increase in the working-age population needs to be accompanied by an 950,000 increase in employment. According to the household survey, we are 250,000 short since last June at what we need to maintain the ratio of employed Americans to the working age population. For those extra 250,000 (according to the household survey), the past nine months' labor market news has not been good.

However, writing for National Review, Jerry Bowyer claims: "last May President Bush fully implemented his tax cut, and since then the rate has rapidly dropped from 6.3 percent down to 5.6 percent, one of the quickest drops in history. That's great news, of course, for unemployed worker 5.61 through unemployed worker 6.30..."

Bowyer implies--Bowyer probably thinks--that unemployed worker 5.61 through unemployed worker 6.30 are now happy because they have found jobs, and that things are not worse but much better than they were last June. But they haven't: the employment-to-population ratio has fallen, not risen. A smaller fraction of those in the labor force last June have jobs today than had jobs then.

So what has happened? What has happened is that, for a number of different reasons, a lot of people have given up looking for work. The fall in the unemployment rate is not because the number of jobs has grown to encompass a larger share of the adult population, but because the fraction of the adult population who are looking for work has fallen as people have dropped out of the labor force.

Lucky duckies, indeed!

It's kinda sad that there is nobody at National Review in any editorial capacity who could point out that Bowyer was misinterpreting the fall in the unemployment rate. It's sadder that nobody at National Review will care enough to correct it.


*This is a household survey number, adjusted for recent changes in population controls. Relying on household survey data for anything is dicey these days. The true picture is probably somewhat worse, as the payroll survey indicates.

"'I wish I could say the household survey were the more accurate,' Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, said in congressional testimony on Feb. 11. 'Everything we've looked at suggests that it's the payroll data which are the series which you have to follow.'... The Fed's conclusion was that the household survey's results had been inflated by overestimates of population growth.... If the population estimate is too high, the estimated number of jobs will also be too high. The bureau bases its population estimate on the 2000 census, but it then updates that estimate yearly with data on births, deaths and immigration. But immigration numbers are largely guesswork, because so much immigration is illegal. Fed officials suspect the immigration estimate is inflated because it fails to reflect tighter immigration controls since Sept. 11, 2001, as well as declines caused by the economic slowdown."

Posted by DeLong at March 11, 2004 06:19 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

Brad - what about the discouraged worker index? is that not an accurate measure?

p.s. want to start a Kudlow Truth Squad?

Posted by: Nate on March 11, 2004 06:35 PM

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We've got the best economy we can afford.

http://www.bopnews.com/archives/000337.html#000337

Posted by: Stirling Newberry on March 11, 2004 07:15 PM

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As someone who has witnessed the Scaife-backed Jerry Boyer's shoddy, shoddy use of data on a local level, I'm not surprised. It's not worth your time, Professor.

Posted by: praktike on March 11, 2004 07:44 PM

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Oops, here's a link to his totally weak think tank:

http://www.alleghenyinstitute.org

Posted by: praktike on March 11, 2004 07:47 PM

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Er, I live in Pittsburgh, and Bowyer hasn't been President of the Allegheny Institute for years now.

Posted by: Chris on March 11, 2004 08:12 PM

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Heh...I just realized that the out-of-date claim was ironic from someone who had just complained about "shoddy data."

Posted by: Chris on March 11, 2004 08:14 PM

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Correct him? NRO? Surely you jest. The purpose of NRO is not to inform. The purpose of NRO is to provide political cover and hit pieces when needed. NRO is "tabloid politics". If you want facts, read the National Enquirer.

Posted by: bakho on March 11, 2004 10:41 PM

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By the standads of other rich countries, US labour force participation is very high and hours worked very long. Normally, one would expect richer people to take more leisure. If the people dropping out of the workforce are discouraged poor who really want a job, then it's cause for concern. But not if it's second-income soccer moms or dads choosing more time with the kids. Which is it?

Posted by: James on March 12, 2004 12:15 AM

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Riiiiigggghhhht. It's well-off americans taking more leisure. I really, really hope that Bush uses that theme this summer.

Posted by: Barry on March 12, 2004 06:32 AM

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Here in the Midwest, our unemployment numbers are higher than the rest of the country. Unemployment is much higher in Flint, Gary and Calumet than Grosse Pointe, Carmel or Naperville. Where do those soccer moms live?

Politicians go negative when their own positives are in trouble. Mr Bush is in trouble over jobs.

Posted by: bakho on March 12, 2004 07:36 AM

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Brad, Bowyer knew he was lying. It was done for propaganda purposes.

Posted by: Chuck Nolan on March 12, 2004 09:45 AM

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Actually, I know Bowyer, and while you may believe he's mistaken, he's by no means dishonest.

I'd like sources on those numbers; 1.53 million have come of age. Okay, great; how many are in college? Are they being counted anyway? The post is conspicuously light on details.

Posted by: Chris on March 12, 2004 10:04 AM

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