Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

Dear Mr Delong: Go,go,go!

Eh. This is just more of the same bullshit that I see every day - talking about "globalization" as some monolithic policy entity. As if tariff reductions, labor and capital mobility, closed-door trade agreements, legislated "compensation" for government regulations, world bank loans, IMF "liberalization" clauses, and a hundred other issues were one great block.

"Globalization" is a total weasel-word that conceals many very different trends, some of them very good and some of them very bad. Working to reduce tariffs is not the same thing - is not even vaguely the same thing - as the IMF deciding that third world countries in financial trouble should immediately gut their public sectors and privatize like mad to qualify for loans. Working to increase trade is not the same thing as putting together trade summits that try to short-circuit democracy by having closed-door negotiations to penalize governments that establish pollution and safety regulations.

I am incredibly frustrated at how few people are willing to make this clear. It leads to very weird juxtapositions like Americans being opposed to "globalization" simultaneously because they're worried about Indians a fighting chance to compete for tech jobs that were traditionally a first-world bastion, and also because they're worried about third world economies being damaged by IMF privatization policies.

Failure to distinguish the very different components of "globalization" is leading a natural audience for the "multilateral economic integration is good, trade unilateralism is bad" audience - the left - to accept protectionism and reject anything smacking of "globalization" because of the many policies that have screwed over third world countries in the name of "globalization".

The article says:

"The country divides along educational lines. Workers with college degrees, or at least some college experience, support globalization because they think they can take advantage of the opportunities it offers. Workers who have not gone beyond high school—half of the U.S. labor force—oppose further globalization because they fear they cannot adjust to it. The only long-term strategy for achieving domestic consensus, therefore, is to improve education and raise the overall skill level of the population. In the short term, effective governmental assistance to workers who are displaced by increased trade flows can help considerably. This assistance should have two components: stronger safety nets to cushion the transitional costs of job displacement, and more effective training and other adjustment programs to help workers qualify for new positions."

Nice suggestion but it has big problems. A generally broader social safety net in the US would be a great thing but seems a political nonstarter. Even universal or at least portable health care, an idea the US public seems fairly receptive to, doesn't really seem to be on the map. It might be possible to "sell" a program to compensate those specifically affected by trade, but how the heck would you identify such people? And as for retraining programs, aren't there pretty general findings that they don't work very well? At least, not the quick and cheap kind of program. And in the final analysis, this is just a social policy pursued hypocritically to get support for trade agreements - the effects of trade on jobs being not really different from the effects of developing new technologies.

"The leaders of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are allowed to manipulate world energy prices, holding them 50 to 75 percent above market levels in recent years. As a result, the cost of energy as a share of U.S. GDP has tripled since 1997."

That's an... interesting sentence. A bit of elementary math indicates that the cost of energy can hardly triple as a result of it being held at 75% market value, even if in 1997 it was actually trading at market value (which I would be surprised by). The whole section on oil sounds like scaremongering (and I doubt he could really support the assertion that OPEC has managed to depress the US GDP by 15-30%).

Why this US focus on being liked, even to the point of reinterpreting the German desire for respect (in a specific sense) as a desire to be liked? The Germans didn't see other people's goodwill as offering them anything substantial, and wrongheadedly supposed that they could get that out of a "we don't want to hurt each other now, do we?" approach instead - forgetting that without goodwill as well nothing would endure, and forgetting that the particular things they wanted would injure others.

The US approach is better in an isolationist world, which may be how it came to be, but it also offers others nothing. US goodwill is worthless as it is not locked in. For a recent example, ask Aristide of Haiti. But on its own, or offered as a substitute for other necessary things, US goodwill is worthless. That is why so many people do not agree that they are making a mistake by incurring US enmity - for certain groups, US goodwill really is not an improvement, and they act out of desperation.

You catch more flies with honey than vinegar.

D

"it was George Marshall's economic aid plan, and not John Pershing's or Dwight Eisenhower's armies, that made and keeps western European countries our allies and partners"

Really! NATO's military might had nothing to do with W. Europe taking our side against Stalin?

Point taken Patrick Sullivan. However, let's suppose that the US and Britain hadn't won much of Western Europe, and that somehow Germany fell entirely into Soviet hands, and then we pulled our troops out of Europe altogether. Ok, we would have missed Germany's industrial output, but it wouldn't have changed the fact that totalitarian communism is a doomed political-economic system. It would have collapsed under it's own weight anyways. And France would have still been our friend because they wouldn't have been able to trade with most of Europe.

"But the current administration cannot grasp an idea that Fred Bergsten grasps very well: that it was George Marshall's economic aid plan, and not John Pershing's or Dwight Eisenhower's armies, that made and keeps western European countries our allies and partners."

If it hadn't been for Eisenhower and others, we would currently be trying to figure out trade relations with a Third Reich that covered a good chunk of the Eastern hemisphere. The Marshall Plan was phase 2.

As for "non economist:" please try and remember exactly what kept the Soviet Union out of France, most of Europe, and Central and South America. It wasn't letters of reprimand from the United Nations.

DeLong remarks:

"But the current administration cannot grasp an idea . . .They see trade as a source of weakness"

Frankly, I hadn't noticed the current administration were any less pro-trade than the previous one. (I know, steel tariffs, but that was just a blip.) Face it: free trade is a big money making proposition for the moneyed elites in this country; Republicans are not going to be opposed.

"And that makes me start thinking of Admiral von Tirpitz and the German Navy League before World War I, with their insane belief that if only they could build a battlefleet strong enough to cause Britain real problems, then the British would like them."

Professor DeLong is not the first to notice a certain resemblance between the current regime and Wilhelmine Germany:

No historical analogy is perfect. Nevertheless, analogies can have a prescriptive value, if not overblown. Consider, please, how Imperial Germany's neurotic obsession with hostile encirclement actually led it away from its previously successful grand strategy of minimizing the threat through skillful diplomacy to seeing the threat in exclusively military terms. The militarization of Germany's foreign policy, in turn, effectively subordinated grand strategy to military strategy. Worse yet, Imperial Germany's military strategy took the form of a pre-emptive strategy known as the Schlieffen Plan, the execution of which guaranteed that Germany would create enemies faster than it could kill them, even though it then possessed the most efficient, if not the largest, killing machine in the world.

http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/comments/c453.htm

There's more, although you need to scroll down almost to the bottom to get it.

The US trade policy suffers from a gridlock that is difficult to break. The GOP is opposed to the safety net and prefers to dismantle the small amount that exists rather than expand it. As long as the safety net is non-existent, Democrats are going to oppose trade agreements that pitch workers out of jobs and into the abyss. The GOP is tied to big moneyed interests in big oil and are not about to impose carbon tax / fuel standards or any semblance of sensible energy policy. The reason why we have not passed an energy policy is because the policy this administration supports is a giveaway of our tax dollars and public resources to big energy and nothing is proposed to address moving away from an oil based economy. It is the prescription drug counterpart, that does little to address problems but a lot to enrich cronies.

It is difficult to maintain a coherent international policy if it changes every 4 years. From that perspective, institutionalizing a process along the lines of the Federal Reserve would help remove it from politics. To have a sustained political commitment to a coherent policy, there would need to be an organized effort throughout the US to support the policy, fund candidates that buy into the policy and be prepared to fight and win elections. Barring an economic hole that would galvanize such an effort, I suspect we will zig and zag and muddle through a less than ideal economic policy.

Especially, since interenational trade policy has financial winners and losers, the whole system is subject to corruption that bends policy away from national good to personal enrichment.

If another country were to become the world hegemon economically and militarily, and were to start pushing us around, how would we behave toward it?

Would we go along to get along?

Or, would we be scheming little bastards trying every which way to stick the knife in?

Here's a webpage to save for everytime you hear some august politician weep big alligator tears about the "looming Social Security deficit", and the "unsustainable impact" of the "Baby Boomers" that following generations "can't afford to pay".

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyrs.pl?cty=US&out=s&ymax=250

It's a double lie! Every American worker who puts in their 50, on average, puts in more than enough *of their own money* to get repaid $1,100 a month to themselves until the day the die, along with their spouse who survives them, and **two other people** on welfare, disability, veteran or late arrival immigrant. But a fair portion of workers NEVER LIVE TO COLLECT, enough to boost that carryon to you, your spouse, and THREE OTHER non-workers, far, far more than the actual number of underemployed! In other words, the Social Security Trust Fund should be JUST SWIMMING in cash, BRIMMING OVER with pay-outs.

That's lie number one. Obviously from the chart, lie number two is that following generations can't afford to "pay Baby Boomer's retirement" (even though Social Security stopped being a Ponzi plan after the first 50 years). There are MORE young workers in each new cohort, each one coming up is LARGER than the Baby Boomer's was!

Lies and double-speak!

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyrs.pl?cty=US&out=s&ymax=250

The only crisis is that the socialist Feds have already laid seige to our Social Security, and bled it off in bureaucratic overhead and deficit covering, and now wants us to believe we can't afford to withdraw our own money that we set aside in full pay-in in the Federal TRUST fund!

They've already robbed us, spent it, and with Bush's massive deficit DoD spending, and the low Treasury rates, they can't afford to repay us, even with larger pay-in's coming along behind, siphoning OUR money into their CRONIES' pockets! Their highway robbery makes Ken Lay look good! Their thievery makes Midas look like a hack!!

Vote the lying, thieving Bushits out in November!
Get some real conservative Republicans in there, shut down these Federal grave robbers for good!

Dear Ifthen,

I think everyone can agree that the "surplus" or excess of revenue from SS receipts exceeds the payouts or current obligations, and the the "surplus" is being used to fund the general accounts deficit of "discretionary" government spending. We can all argue about the efficiency of the bureuacracy of SS Administration.

The projections out several decades are subject to twiddling because small changes in assumptions can make large differences in outcome.

However, the issue is trade. I would note that for proponents of "free trade," the article Brad sites states that:

"The next administration must work to restore a sustainable current account and international financial position."

In other words, as myself and other pro-trade persons have stated all along one can be extremely skeptical of the trade deficit, skeptical of the current trade treaties, and skeptical of the IMF but be pro-trade. I don't think that having such a large current accounts deficit is sustainable. For one thing it shifts money from export industries that would create jobs replacing those lost to imports, and shifts that money toward financial speculation and investment in finance instruments like Treasury notes.

Money spent on stocks/bonds only counts as capital investments if it results in business start-up or expansion. I think very little of the trade deficit money is going toward that goal. The solution is searching for liberalization parity and protecting intellectual property rights, as well as improving foreign aid into a genuine developmental program instead of a subsidy program which is what it does now.

"Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he may trade fish to you for shoes in return and capture comparative advantage." ;-)

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/13/international/africa/13AFRI.html

Low Labor Standard Leads South Africans to Export Jobs
By SHARON LaFRANIERE

BABELEGI, South Africa — When Tiger Wheels opened a wheel plant six years ago in this faded industrial town, the crush of job seekers was so enormous that the chief executive, Eddie Keizan, ordered a corrugated iron roof to shield them from the midday heat.

"There were hundreds and hundreds of people outside our gate, just sitting there, in the sun, for days and days," Mr. Keizan recalled in an interview. "We had no more jobs, but they refused to believe us."

The little shelter might just be the last expansion of this South African company's operations here. It is hiring again, but not in South Africa, where one person in four is jobless. Instead, it has a new plant in Alabama, is looking to open another in China and may expand its subsidiary's factory in Poland.

South Africa's failure to keep jobs at home and to stimulate new ones is turning into one of the biggest disappointments of the post-apartheid era.

After black majority rule triumphed 10 years ago, the government bent over backward to attract businesses to an economy weakened by the export of capital and a global boycott during apartheid. It cut inflation, liberalized trade and reduced the budget deficit.

But sound economic policies have not compensated for unskilled workers, high labor costs, crime, AIDS, the specter of a collapsing Zimbabwe on the northern border, and the fact that Africa is, simply put, a bad business address.

Today, South Africa's underclass is bigger than ever. Counting those who have given up the search for work, unemployment has jumped to more than 40 percent, from 31 percent a decade ago. The gap between rich and poor remains one of the world's largest....

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/13/business/worldbusiness/13SCRA.html?hp

China's Need for Metal Keeps U.S. Scrap Dealers Scrounging
By ANDREW POLLACK and KEITH BRADSHER

LOS ANGELES — At a time when toys, televisions and other products made in China are flooding into the United States, helping push the trade deficit to record levels, there is at least one American product for which China has a nearly insatiable demand — industrial junk.

Sales of scrap metal to China have surged, with effects that are ricocheting across the American economy. Prices are soaring not just for scrap, but for metals in general. After years of surpluses that forced many steel makers into bankruptcy, supplies are so tight that contractors told a Congressional hearing in Washington this week that they sometimes cannot obtain supplies at any price.

China last year became the first country ever to import more than $1 billion of American scrap, according to the newspaper American Metal Market. Indeed, it would not be an exaggeration to say that China's transformation into an industrial powerhouse is being fueled by America's waste, and that of other countries, as well. Much of the material being used to build China's skyscrapers, factories and telecommunications systems — along with many of the products it exports — is derived from scrap, which is usually cheaper than new metal made from ore.

"China is very hungry," said David Pan, a Chinese-born scrap metal buyer, as a truck carrying steel reinforcing bars from a dismantled building in San Diego prepared to dump its cargo with a deafening clatter on the floor of his warehouse in Maywood, an industrial town just south of here. "They need a lot of material." ...

Dr. Delong is being way to polite. The article isn't particularly good, and its nostrums are weak. However, what is frightening is that even this watered down level of discipline, internationalism - this most minimal effort at doing what is essential and obvious - is going to be completely beyond the Executive's abilities to execute on.

The article, for example, calls for cutting the deficit in half relative to GDP - Bush has promised this, but we all know that he's gonna take the tax cuts.

But the article has one very, very, very good idea that should be looked at closely and considered as a very strong possibility:

"The Clinton administration created a National Economic Council to address such issues but never institutionalized the mechanism; it quickly fell into disuse when key personnel changed. A well-managed council, eventually written into law to parallel the National Security Council (NSC), is badly needed now. It would also help if at least one of the two top officials at the State Department and the NSC brought some economic expertise to their positions and were more cognizant of the importance of international economic issues to their broader mandates."

That's something worth signing on board for, simply because, as I am sure Dr. Delong and C. Fred Bergsten know:

It is not physically possible for the 4 Billion people who want to join the developed world economy to have a US - or even Czech Republic -standard of living. The key resources are simply in too short a supply. For everyone in this block to have a US standard of living would require, based on Japan's energy density of GDP, for world oil output to increase by some 200 million barrels - A day. That is some three times current world production.

Basically - globalization can occure at the improvment rate of whatever the bottleneck commodities are - energy being one obvious one. Faster globalization than the increase of potential GDP from energy (that is output * energy density) means, inevitably, lower consumption standards for developed nations.

Since the electorates in those developed nations do not see the rich cutting back, the political coalition for "prosperity for the rich, austerity for the rest" will not long remain in place. The obvious policy of choice will be protectionism - slow globalism down to the rate of increase in potential GDP, so that the developed world can only grow at the rate of energy GDP. This will create an increasing divide - those nations which can grow quickly can grab more of the scarce commodities and grow even more quickly, forcing the rest to contract.

If some other policy - such as liberalization of trade - is desired, then the only means to do so is move the optimal curve outward.

http://www.cbpp.org/3-4-04bud.htm

Budget Priorities Gone Awry - 3/12/04

The proposed Senate budget would cut taxes on the wealthiest, raise taxes on the poorest workers, cut most domestic discretionary program areas, and very likely increase the ranks of those without health insurance. The proposal would exacerbate, rather than reduce, deficits.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/11/business/11scene.html

What Goes Abroad Usually Comes Back, With Benefits
By HAL R. VARIAN - Berkeley

THE Jan. 31 issue of The Economist described the consequences of high-tech jobs moving overseas.

According to the story, "with the trans-Atlantic shift in R&D goes many high-value jobs, as well as a greater share of the industry's profits." This trend has led to an "increasing concern" in the industry, with some executives speaking out against the outsourcing trend.

Old news, you might say. The press is filled with articles about high-tech jobs being outsourced to India.

The twist here is that the article is about biotech research jobs being outsourced to the United States from Europe. But the language is eerily familiar: replace "biotech" with "infotech" and switch the roles of Europe and America and this story could pass for yet another Silicon Valley requiem.

Articles like this should remind us that trade is a two-way street.

The money paid to foreign producers, whether businesses or workers, typically comes back home to buy domestic goods and services, thereby generating domestic employment. That is true whether it is European companies paying American biotech researchers, or American companies paying Indian programmers....

Gotta say, anne really digs up the gold; funny sense of humor too.

Thanks Luke.
Smile!

Sometimes I think Anne is a machine that passes the Turning Test. How do you have time for this? I am retired and have more time to read the blogs and comment than the rest of you workers and care givers. But, I also have a busy life, which I enjoy, that prevents much blog reading or commenting.
Keep up the good work.
Thanks

I took a moment to go to this knucklehead's paper.

Like every other eco guy, he has foot and head disease.

He observes, "The main reason for this stalemate is that global economic developments have harmed many individuals in the United States."

DAH

What an understatement. Those protected by tenure have b-f-ed the average American. When you f* enough people, and they can vote (or worse yet have been going around state by state getting armed via concealed and carry), you set the stage for the pendalum to swing back.

I don't give a rat's a* about the poor starving, blah blah in the rest of the world. They can find propsperity in their own country, but to use the power of government (here) directly or indirectly to hurt even one American is wrong. We have what we have in America because the American public kept their part of the social contract. Its time for the elites and the Government to do the same.

When the only test is "efficiency," the race ain't to the bottom, the race is to see who can come as close to slavery as fast as possible.

Look at the raw facts--software programers in India making 6K a year own slaves (nominally "servants" but in every true sense slaves). Every time I see or read a "free trader" what I see is a flaming retard advocating the cotton south of the 1840's -50s for the New India.

Jesus: Blessed are the peacemakers.

Bush: Bring it on.

The World: Oy

'Really! NATO's military might had nothing to do with W. Europe taking our side against Stalin?'

so, let me understand your scenario for why W. Europe joined with the U.S to form NATO in the taking of sides against Stalin (ha hah ha ha), this was because NATO was so strong!? The Heinleinian time-loops are powerful indeed, but probably not that powerful.

My laughter regarding the taking of sides against Stalin has to do with two things:
1. This would certainly understand why NATO was disbanded after Stalin's death.
2. This Stalin, he was a gigantic war bot? Lucky no one was fooled into trying to oppose Russia then huh.

So Moe, I assume by your "no support for slavery" stance that you can swear to the fact you have not bought anything but 100% US made products? No Nike shoes? No textile products in your wardrobe? No parts in your SUV or sedan?
DOUBTFUL. And disingenous.

Not many Americans would willfully support slavery here or abroad. But the word as you would like to use it is far from the reality of the real world.

Why I'd be willing to bet it would shock you to find out that Hillery even supports "outsourceing," of course its only within the context of her own State. She's not Honest enough to endorse it unless it profits her re-election.

James K. Glasman who has given frequent congressional testimony on economics, Social Security reform, and personal investing gives some insight into the Democrats protectionist style of economics that you apparantly support. He also does a fine job of exposing Kerrys "Benedict Arnolds" he,s so fond of talking about. One of which Kerry shares his bed with.

Italy and France were so poor in the post war years they almost voted in communist governments. Concerted efforts by the CIA, vatican and Italian Americans convinced the Italians to do otherwise. Direct US leverage from Truman threatening to withhold aid to France did the trick with them.
Without the use of US softpower in postwar Europe our military would have been useless. The same is now true in Iraq.

BDL: "One of the many, many things that the Clown Show that is the current administration appears incapable of learning is that our soft power is a great deal harder and more powerful than our hard power. If China is a partner rather than an adversary in fifty years, it will not be because of the 82nd Airborne Division, it will be because the economic, social, and cultural links between the U.S. and China are so strong that its politics will have reshaped themselves to some degree in our image and its people will see how much they have to gain from peace and how much we all have to lose from confrontation."

Sentence 1, maybe. But sentence 2? Whether or not China is a partner rather than an adversary depends on how social and political institutions (and the economic situation) evolve in China. (And to a lesser extent how these things evolve here). Which USA soft power will have (relatively) little affect on. The underlying point of this sort of thinking is, It's All About Us, the USA. But it's not....

Mark Garrity: "Without the use of US softpower in postwar Europe our military would have been useless."

So if we could have kept one of the two types of power, we would have kept the soft power?

Dano: "You catch more flies with honey than vinegar."

The best approach to prevent slug damage in your garden is to ruthlessly annihilate the slugs....

Joe (and to a lesser extent Patrick),

The soft. Absolutely.

It's what kept the Europeans as allies, rather than Finlandising. The US Army was more important as "blood chits" demonstrating national will than as actual fighting forces.

Look at it this way ... 1944-45 Germany, with a nutso totalitarian regime that swung between reasonable efficiency and total fruitloop, under severe pressure from the West (Omaha, Juno, Gold and all that) slowed the Red Army down to single-digit kilometers a day. Toss in three British divisions, four French and a mixed Div from the rest of NATO, and I think they could have seen off a hypothetical Soviet invasion for long enough for it to run out of supplies and stall (four-six weeks, max, judging from 1944-5 experience. The essential limit is you cant fit enough divisions into 100 km of front).

Sure, the US Army in Europe allowed the Euros to weasel out of paying for some more military power, but it wasnt as if the US Army is (or was) notably better than equivalently equipped formations.

Once Europe had an independant nuclear deterrent (two of them in fact), there was never going to be any Bonapartist Adventurism into Western Europe.

Heck, the ideal time to do this sort of Adventurism was while the US Army was off wrecking itself in Vietnam ... and they did nothing.

Ian Whitchurch

Gratitude is merely the secret hope of further favors.

Don't walk behind me, I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me, I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend.

Very interesting things in you site

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Vescere bracis meis - Eat my shorts

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