Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

I just wonder who trusted that guy with the fighter jet in the first place.

And so now the whole story is flying under the radar. The Bush administration at its best. Make a high profile statement on national television that you will reveal "anything" about your national guard service history, release only what you want the public to see, say that that's all there is to it and then return to secrecy and obstruction. If there is nothing more to this story then why is there so much diligence in blocking access to information? And why has the mainstream media had nothing to say about this?

This makes more sense than even the idea that he wished to avoid drug testing.

I have worked at many military bases, including air bases for all the services. Jet fighter pilots are the royalty of the air services. The men who qualify for these coveted positions never stand down voluntarily. (Let me be clear. They will stand down because they must or should, but that's not voluntary, that's duty.)

It is even difficult to temporarily ground them for self-limited afflictions like sinusitis or middle ear infections which disturb balance which can mean death in a fighter jet. Indeed, I recall several extremely angry pilots who came to the ER seeking treatment for these conditions only to be told that they were "non-flight status" until cleared by a military flight surgeon. (As a civilian flight surgeon, I could deny but not restore flight status.)

This usually only meant 24-48 hours on the ground, but these people live to fly. It's almost an addiction. Just watching the jets I could feel the pull: actually flying them must be an unmatched thrill.

What I have seen of the public personality of George Bush matches many of the fighter pilots I have seen. I have never believed that he gave up flying jets because he found it boring.

With a little modification, the Human Reliability Project theory fits all of the known facts quite nicely--and in a way that would make fans of Occam's Razor applaud.

The modification needed has to do with an understanding of how the HRP would be implemented. The directive was issued in May, 1973, but the "air defense program" itself did not start until October 6th. The logical explanation is that TANG officials did a "pre-HRP review" of its pilots, and found that Bush was among those who, based on their record, would be unlikely to meet HRP requirements. (After all, his driving record was less than stellar, he had an arrest record, he had a reputation as a partier---and what may have been most influential is that Bush was someone who saw himself as an exception to "the rules" that governed the behavior of others.)

Given his political connections, TANG officials would have tried to find a way to ease Bush out of his pilot position without the embarrassment of "failed the Human Reliability tests".

The "we had enough pilots" explanation does not hold water under the best of circumstances. The F102 was the plane that would be used for the civil defense mission, and Bush was a crackerjack F102 pilot with remarkable leadership abilities (if you can believe his Officer Effectiveness Reports.) Bush would have been the guy you wanted to keep, especially during the transition period.

And lets face it...anyone who was around in 1972 knows that summers were "down time" in political campaigns back then. Bush could easily have taken the necessary weekends off to do his duty in Texas in June, July, and August at the very least(and probably could have gotten free flight home as well!)

The bottom line is that Bush was AWOL---and, in fact, was conspiring with TANG officials to desert the United States Air Force Reserve. Whether it was because of HRP, or some "drug bust", or just because he was a spoiled jerk is irrelevant to the question of whether he "fulfilled his duty".

He didn't. Period.

Hoo boy, the fallacy ad ignorantum just won't die, no matter how many stakes I drive through its heart.

But do you really think that an F-102, which is a fighter INTERCEPTOR--meaning it's designed to shoot down enemy aircraft attacking us--would have carried NUCLEAR WEAPONS?

"The 'we had enough pilots' explanation does not hold water under the best of circumstances."

I think a former F-4 pilot is a little more credible on this than you are:

http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2004_archives/000346.html

-----------quote----------
Starting in January 1970, fighter aircraft units started to deploy back to CONUS as part of Nixon's Vietnamization program. I know. I flew my F-4 all the way back from Da Nang to MCAS El Toro, CA. (Never saw so much blue water in all my life.) Some of my contemporaries flying F-4s at the time never made it into Vietnam basically due to a lack of need for their services.

By the time 1972 arrived, we active duty F-4 jocks were really scrounging for flight time. The operations funding that buys flight hours had really been cut back by the Nixon Administration. (Yes, flight hours have to be paid for and hours in fighter aircraft are very expensive. Don't ask how much. You don't want to know.) I heard similar whining about reduced flight hour funding from others on active duty as well from air guard pilots.

So it seems to me that by 1972, GWB's squadron of the Texas Air National Guard (TANG) squadron could have cared less whether he flew or not. More flight hours for others more deserving and in need. There was a surplus of Vietnam combat pilots recently released from active duty and who were trying to fly with the Guard in hopes of building up flight hours to get on with the airlines.
-----------endquote----------

" With a little modification, the Human Reliability Project theory fits all of the known facts quite nicely--and in a way that would make fans of Occam's Razor applaud.

" The modification needed has to do with an understanding of how the HRP would be implemented. The directive was issued in May, 1973, but the "air defense program" itself did not start until October 6th."

"A little modification", huh. Bush stopped flying in May of 1972. Not 1973. And by Oct. of that year he was a student at HBS.

Nice try.

My kind of guy:

----------quote----------
Retired Brig. Gen. Walter Staudt, who gave Bush his direct commission as a second lieutenant out of Yale University in May 1968, said the Texas Air Guard had nuclear-capable jets, including F-101s and F-102s.

‘‘But I never heard of an F-102 carrying a nuclear weapon, so I don't see why you think these regulations would have applied,” the 81-year-old retired general said.

‘‘I love the guy,” Staudt said of Bush. ‘‘I'm so tired of this negative crap about him that I'd like to volunteer to build a barn and take you press guys out behind it and kick your asses.”
---------endquote--------

Oh, what a surprise, the two Spokane reporters are friends of David Niewert! They certainly share the same level of reading comprhension:

" Bush's pilot code was among those covered by Air Force Regulation 35-99, a previously undisclosed document recently obtained by The Spokesman-Review. Regulation 35-99 contains an extensive explanation of the Human Reliability Program."

According to this, the regulation wouldn't have applied to Bush at all:

http://www.defenselink.mil/privacy/notices/usaf/0F036AFPCI.html

" Categories of individuals covered by the system:

" Enlisted personnel on active duty who request reassignment or deferment from assignment under the Children Have A Potential (CHAP) humanitarian programs; or are nominated or volunteer for special assignment; or request information or action through high level channels; or are restricted, along with their dependents, from assignment to certain overseas areas; or are subject to special assignment procedures, such as: Reassignment of airmen with known deficiencies; reassignment of threatened airmen; disposition of airmen involved in disciplinary/legal problems en route to permanent change of station (PCS) assignment; or reassignment for trial; Curtailment of Overseas Tour for Cause or are permanently decertified from the Personnel Reliability Program and Master, Senior Master and Chief Master Sergeants on active duty in the Air Force who are considered/selected for an assignment. Enlisted club stewards on active duty in the Air Force."

Another humiliation for the Bush was AWOL crowd. Couldn't happen to nicer guys.

Patrick, you can go home now.

Patrick writes: My kind of guy:
----------quote----------
‘‘I love the guy,” Staudt said of Bush. ‘‘I'm so tired of this negative crap about him that I'd like to volunteer to build a barn and take you press guys out behind it and kick your asses.”
---------endquote--------

Yes Patrick, 81 year old that needs to build a barn so he can take a bunch of people behind it and kick their asses is exactly your kind of guy. I thought to ask if you met him at Alzheimer's Association meeting but decided it would be mean.

If Smoot-Hawley's passage in June 1930 can cause a stock market crash in October of 1929; why can't an May 1973 directive drive a pilot out of the national guard in summer of 1972?

Hah ha ha ha ha ha......I just love you guys. It turns out that indeed the AF did develop a low yield nuclear tipped air to air missile in the 1960s, but quickly realized (what I've been saying here) that you couldn't use it defending your own territory. So they replaced it with an improved conventional armament Sparrow missile.

By 1971 there were no nuclear Falcon GAR-11s on any interceptors. Meaning: If the planes on the Houston base ever had them (and Gen'l Staudt above said they didn't) then Bush would have PASSED his HRP test. AND, when he gave up flying in 1972 he wouldn't have been subject to such a program.

Is there anything more gullible than a Bush hater?