Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

I'm sorry, but this story, coming on a day when Colon Powers was prancing around the region and handing Pakistan the keys to our weapons bazaar, stank like a garbage barge docked off Fulton Fish Market in late August. Just a shiny bauble to distract gullible journos on the happy anniversary of Operation Bait and Switch.

I wonder what Brian's reaction was when Bush took office and recalled the Predators so the CIA couldn't even take pictures.

"a phalanx of heavily armed militants able to wipe out dozens of crack troops"

What the...! Crack troops aren't heavily armed themselves?

The Australia piece might be a misunderstanding of earlier developments that still bode well for nabbing Zawahiri. From "Dawn", the English language Pakistani newspaper that has often been way ahead of western papers in getting accurate news from Pakistan:

"Dawn has learnt on good authority that one of the men who had broken through a paramilitary security cordon in what looked like a bulletproof double-cabin pick-up truck amid hails of bullets on Tuesday could be Ayman Al Zawahiri.

Sources said the truck, which had survived bullets, was later found abandoned after it had rammed into a wall. "He seems to have been wounded and appears to be holed up somewhere in that area," claimed two different sources. "It is Shin Warsak where troops are facing the stiffest resistance," said these sources.

One source familiar with the Tuesday's operation said the truck that had broken through the cordon was closely followed by two other speeding pick-ups. Both, however, were blown up by paramilitary troops with mortars and shells.

A credible source said the sheer number of foreign militants - between 500 and 600 - who had put up a big fight on Tuesday, had raised suspicions of the likely presence of a 'high-value target.'

Another source told Dawn that the Egyptian surgeon was believed to be hiding in Shin Warsak. A senior security official acknowledged his men in the field too had picked up the same intelligence but said it was still too early to say anything with certainty.

"There is this perception. Let's hope this is true. If he is there, nothing like it," said the official. He, however, thought that Ayman Al Zawahiri and his men, if they were there, would rather want to put up a last stand and die than give themselves up. "Unless, of course, they run out of ammunition," he added. "

end quote

http://www.dawn.com/2004/03/19/top2.htm

Al Zawahiri was probably never there. I suspect all of these "escaping truck" stories are simply cover.

The intelligence that indicated Zawahiri might have been there was at least 3 months old and the only other indication was traces of blood in a pick up truck that may (or may not have) existed.

This was likely being spun for Powell's benefit.

This whole bizarre story has lacked the ring of truth from the beginning. After two years of not doing much of anything, Pakistan starts a big offensive right where al-Qaeda's #2 just happens to be, timed perfectly with Colin Powell's visit? Now, in spite of the fact Pakistan supposedly has this compound surrounded by troops, "Zawahiri" busts out and takes off in a bulletproof SUV? This gets more absurd by the day.

Missed him by that much.

Why does this all remind me of a certain sitcom?

Maxwell Smart: Just to let you know, this building is surrounded by 500 government sharp shooters."

Enemy Agent: "I find that very hard to believe."

Smart: "Would you believe 100?"

Enemy Agent: "No."

Smart: "50?"

Enemy Agent: "No."

Smart: "A couple of guys with pointed sticks?"

Don Adams
That's great, sums up this administrations "War on Terror" pretty well except Max never tried to terrorize his own people with Ashcroft.

I think we all know that Bush, post-9/11, has pursued terrorism more vigorously than Clinton did, and that Clinton pursued terrorism more vigorously than Bush pre-9/11. The question of how a third Clinton presidency, post-9/11, would have compared to Bush's post-9/11 performance is, of course, an unanswerable, though easily debatable, question.

I don't know, it seems like it half-belongs in the Onion or something, this Zawahiri story. It's like an action movie parody. "Osama bin Laden escapes U.S. Encirclement by Single-Handedly Knocking out U.S. division with Kung-Fu" or something like that. It is a weird story.

Brad DeLong- Leftist Economics icon and special ops monday morning QB. I wonder what his reaction was to the inaction of Clinton when the CIA had OBL on camera.
Posted by Brian

I think that Clinton said, damn, we need to have missile capability on these predator drones, so they did that. See http://www.ga.com/news/RQ-1.html.
Note that the first missile was fired from a predator on Feb. 21, 2001, a month after GWB took office.

Where was the Predator with Hellfire yesterday Brian?

Anyone else remember Musharraf two years ago: "I doubt [Osama] is alive, and if he is alive he cannot be in Pakistan." http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/2078812.stm

Anyone else interpret that as: "he cannot be in Pakistan" because then I'd have to do something about it, which would be politically impossible, so can we please just pretend he's dead? (and that's the charitable interpretation)

Bush also favored the pretend Osama's dead approach during the buildup to the Iraq war, and it never ceases to amaze me how many Americans are certain Osama is dead despite the fact that about twice a year, the CIA verifies his voice on a new tape discussing a recent news event.

How did the reporter get the story? His writing suggests he actually saw the LandCruiser pull out of a compound. Was he like ... standing across the street milling around with the paparazzi?

Next time the Pakistanis should equip a fake reporter with a fake camera that fires poison darts.

Paul Callahan: "...it never ceases to amaze me how many Americans are certain Osama is dead despite the fact that about twice a year, the CIA verifies his voice on a new tape discussing a recent news event."

The CIA also announced in an official report in 1989, a few months before the Berlin Wall fell, that East Germany had a higher per capital income than West Germany. Which once again raises Moynihan's question: what the hell do we have a CIA for?

My more specific points are:

(1) Bin Laden may very well be dead despite those "authoritative" CIA voice analyses of his tapes. Certainly (unlike Zawahiri) he isn't actually appearing on any videotapes which clearly postdate 2001.

On the other hand, this could mean that he's just very unwell -- either crippled by our attack, or permanently wheelchair-bound due to his kidney problem -- in which case he cetrtainly wouldn't want his potential supporters to know that, either. (Moreover, if some nation like Iran is providing him with hospital care, that nation wouldn't want that fact known either.) Certainly he is almost certainly either dead or seriously ill.

(3) It really doesn't make that much difference -- Zawahiri was always the brains of the outfit, and if Bin Laden is dead Al Qaeda certainly still has access to whatever part of his personal fortune is left. But then, at this point I don't think it makes all that much difference whether even Zawahiri is captured or not -- Al Qaeda is pretty clearly in the process of dispersing into a cloud of autonomous Moslem terrorist groups which will go on pretty much as effectively even without a central Evil Directing Head. (Both Bush and the Democrats have been methodically neglecting this fact, although it was always highly predictable and has enormous consequences for our anti-terrorist strategy.)

Oh, and Brian: I do wish you'd stop the twaddle about how Clinton could have arranged an all-out US military invasion of Afghanistan as soon as the Cole bombing, or the African embassy bombings, occurred. We would not have been able to get Pakistan to agree -- which was crucial -- we would not have been able to get Iran or the Arab world to remain neutral, and we might not even have been able to get even the Afghan Northern Alliance to agree. The REAL issues of serious neglect for which Clinton can be blamed are his failures to respond adequately to the imminent development of the Bomb by North Korea and Pakistan.

The fog of war. We have no clue what is happening there.

In the end, the battle with al Qaeda will be won by the bankers and the lawyers, not soldiers. At one time, a lot of US planes were hijacked to Cuba. It was neither police nor military that stopped those hijackings.

The real failure of the Clinton administration was to bow to GOP political pressure and not fire Louis Freeh.

Bruce Moomaw says, "The REAL issues of serious neglect for which Clinton can be blamed are his failures to respond adequately to the imminent development of the Bomb by North Korea and Pakistan."

In reality, neither of those two are especially persuasive either. Pakistan was being denied aid because of its nuclear program. This was a serious issue for Pakistan, since its foreign debt is crushing.

On N. Korea, Clinton successfully blocked development of a plutonium-based weapon. After the Republicans hyperventilated about the need to invade North Korea ca. 1998, I'm not sure the the NK's would have taken any US Administration claiming to be interested in peace at its word. Certainly not Bush's.

Evidence is they began developing the plutonium based weapons after Bush broke off negotiations. It's as if the man wants a war on the Korean peninsula.

This whole story does seem a little suspect... it would certainly be nice if it were true that we were close to catching the guy (assuming that this dashing getaway didn't actually happen). It also seems like something long on rumor and short on evidence.

Most major American media outlets are for-profit. This story probably sells. That's the only thing of which I'm convinced.

"A BULLETPROOF LandCruiser at high speed bursting out of a tribal compound in Pakistan's South Waziristan region was just the latest infuriating setback in the US's quest to bring down the top of the al-Qa'ida tree."

You seem to believe this?! If it is true, the US military is far less capable than it advertises. After all, Israel can rain down rockets on individual Palestinian automobiles in the midst of a populated area, and there ain't no such thing as a rocket-proof car.

Of course, it has been reported that the US wants Zawahiri alive and feared the Pakistanis might kill him. If Zawahiri was actually there, perhaps the US asked the Pakistanis to relent and took no action itself. The possibilities are endlessly convoluted. But in a time when the Bush administration has no credibility left, I sure as heck am not about to start giving credence to Pakistan's pronouncements.

> So where was the backup to the assault force?

In Iraq, of course.

Let's hope someone is looking into the records of whoever manufactures Bulletproof LandCruisers

I agree with septic tank. Our media are lap dogs for Bush, Rumsfeld, Powell and their crew of liars and manipulators. These guys have learned that new stories about all the progress being made with Al-Qaida get great play, and might make people forget about Ken Lay, crooked 529 funds which cost more than a taxable investment, and American high-handedness in Haiti. It enrages me how NPR suucks up to Bush et al. Remember how Geertz wrote about Bali, the Theater State? We have a theater state with ordinary people getting ripped off more and more every Reagan swept in - no benefits, payroll taxes now almost half of the total tax revenue. What does NPR do? They give us "balanced coverage" - pentagon spokespeople all day every day.

Me too --what s(k)eptic said.
anciano, there's far worse than NPR, ( CNN for one ) but I agree, NPR coverage does seem to be sliding/sinking to the Repug side.

Glad to see other sane people here...the news (yes, even NPR sadly) just relays whatever the government says, never bothering to give an alternative interpretation, or delving into "why" such a (often nonfalsifiable) storyline favors those pushing it. Or, unthinkably, actually investigating a story to see what the truth is...

This story has stunk from the first: oh, okay, NOW we're going to get serious about looking for OBL? WTF?

Rather than criticize the Bushites for not looking for OBL sooner, it's more reasonable to not believe a bit of this "theatre"...

Obviously, I can't know, but could hundreds of "foreigner militants" hide out in the hills, in a fiercely tribal area, without anyone knowing? Without support? Who's feeding them?

If they were there, somebody powerful must have given their consent - Musharraf and, effectively, Bush, if you ask me.

OBL has been dead for a while, or at least under our thumb. You know what would make a great reality TV show, I mean campaign? Chasing OBL though the countryside (maybe throw in exotic city locales) in a dramatic cat and mouse action, for about six months, until a grande finale "firefight" or somesuch capture.

Just how "evil" is the evil genius Rove?

http://www.whitehouse.org/administration/sisters.asp

It has been my feeling for the past two years that OBL is sitting in a plush condo in Islamabad, protected by the Pakistani secret service (which armed and equipped the Taliban in the first place) and elements of the Pakistani military (which is heavily pro-Islamist). OBL simply knows too many Pakistani secrets to be allowed to fall into the hands of the U.S. government.

The audio tapes, BTW, have been verified as genuine not only by the CIA, but also by the intelligence agencies of most of the major powers. This isn't something that the CIA could cover up if they goofed on -- the tapes are handed to Arab journalists, not to the CIA, and the Arab journalists hand out copies of the tapes all over the place. If the tapes were forgeries, I'd expect to be hearing about it from someone in the Coalition of the Billing by now... but even British intelligence, happy perpetrators of the "Niger yellowcake" scam, hasn't budged from their assessment of the authenticity of the tapes.

As for why OBL isn't making videos -- somehow I would think that videos made inside a plush Islamabad condo would not be good for his image on the Arab "street" as a rough and rugged fighting man...

Bad Tux: If any of your "feelings" are true, then why did the Pakistani ISI take down Khalid Shaikh Mohammed in Rawalpindi last Spring? Makes no sense that they'd go after the number 3-5 guy while protecting number 1, does it?

As for some of the other issues, is it possible that Musharraf's anti-terror resolve was elevated by the two assassination attempts on his life last year? And as for timing, it's very difficult to mount operations such as this in the dead of winter in high-elevation territory such as South Waziristan where there's hardly any roads to begin with. There was lots of news chatter in December, January and February about Task Force 121 being retasked into the border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan to accelerate the search for high value Al-Q'aeda operatives. If there's any coincidence between Colin Powell being over there and these stories, it's that US INTEL suggested a trip by the Secretary of State would be timely given the impending anti-terror activities along the border.