Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

One step at a time Dr. DeLong. So many of us have been so angry at the clear corrosion of basic ethical values in politics, and the extreme distorations of fact put forward by the current executive branch - and then taken up in the press - that we forget how far most people have to go.

It is, still, the economy. As the hope for a rebound has been dashed, and the return of inflation indicates that we are at the end, not the beginning, of an expansion - the pressure on Americans will force them to conclude that they were lied to, some how. It is only against this back drop that questioning those at the helm becomes possible. Those of us who live in the realm of numbers and ideas are often wrong, or at least often worried about events that will not come to pass. Most Americans, Saleton definitely included, live in a world of images and pragmatics. They check their bank book, and their television, and when the two roughly line up, they go back to whatever they were doing.

Remember how long it took you to go from "the status quo basically works" to "impeach them, now". Realize that other people, without the benefit of your insight and ability to analyze data are now having to make that same journey. In no small part, they are going to find along the way the words that you and others have used to frame the debate, and to show how the system has been corrupted by those who have used the basic sense of trusting leadership for ill chosen ends.

When they sit down and write the history of this time period, your page - and some few others - will be listed as the "reasons" for the discontent - because people will, piece by piece, discover that the answers to the questions they are just now asking have already, not merely been found, but cast in lucid prose.

Now, more than ever before, the country needs the voices of those who can explain the truth in clear terms. But it will take them time - infuriating maddening time. Time when people who understand what is going on watch a billion dollars a day flow out as debt, and watch problems which should be easy to solve become more difficult. Time when people bleed and die in Iraq.

But the public will not be hurried, because the fate of a President, and of an entire order that he represents, hangs in the balance. They will not be, and cannot be rushed in this.

Bob Kerrey in the public hearing this morning confirmed that the 9/4/2001 plan was not that comprehensive - at least in his view. Kerrey noted the commission learned of the details of the plan in a classified meeting so he could not give out the details but he certainly summarized it as woefully inadequate. Kerrey used his tirade to argue (once again) that Dr. Rice appear before the commission in public testimony - especially since she is touting publically the virtues of this 9/4/2001 plan.

Dr. DeLong,

Of course -- Bush was leading the charge against terra! Only his wimpy staff held him back.

Even though all their pronouncements of top 100 priorities didn't include terra, I'm sure it was at 101! Even though the budget for these things kept getting cut / denied. All part of the Master Plan -- no need for money -- Bush would single-handedly destroy all bad guys!

March 23, 2004, 2:33 p.m.
Clarke’s Problems
He can’t have it all ways.

William F. Buckley

It's hard to keep in coherent order the various complaints Mr. Richard Clarke, former anti-terrorism adviser, has been trying to make in the lavishly arranged welcome of his book. He got not one but (almost) two segments on 60 Minutes, the second affecting to give both sides of the question whether Mr. Bush was hypocritical and derelict in making policy both before and after September 11, but serving, rather, to fortify the case against Bush because the defense was ill-prepared.

What Clarke is contending is that the heated desire of the administration to get on with a war against Iraq caused it to be indifferent to the case against al-Qaeda. This accusation is mysterious because it leans on the assumption that only al-Qaeda was guilty of terrorism, while Iraq was not: therefore, that an Iraqi-bent strategy brought on disproportionate diplomatic and military activity.

Clarke's case rests in part on the failure of the United States to mobilize against terror before September 11, resulting in the shock and surprise with which we saw the Twin Towers come down. He cited, on 60 Minutes, the relatively alert Clinton administration, which had reacted to the earlier bombing of a Twin Tower. Clarke spoke specifically of a terrorist bound across the Canadian border bent on sabotage in the Los Angeles airport; the terrorist was detected as suspicious and carted away. The suggestion is that, in 2001, the national alert system was not properly pitched, and that the malefactors of September 11 might, otherwise, have been frustrated.

Everybody should be willing to acknowledge that we didn't act appropriately on several leads left underdeveloped in 2000 and 2001. There were terrorists who were in the United States, taking flying lessons. And there was the terrorist in Arizona, spotted as suspicious but not pursued for reasons largely bureaucratic.

A dilemma is posed here. Critics of Bush rail against the Patriot Act and the Guantanamo detentions and Homeland Security as impinging on First Amendment freedoms. Meanwhile, other critics are saying that Mr. Bush has not done enough. The two camps have in common only their disapproval of George W. Bush.

It isn't easy to know exactly what the government might have done if the alert-level had been set higher than it was on September 11. There is a certain innocence in the United States, not unbecoming, about foreign aggression within our boundaries. As one analyst pointed out, the last time we were attacked on our own soil, before 9/11, was when the British burned down the White House in 1812. As a schoolboy during World War II, I spent many midnight hours staring at the sky looking out for Nazi bombers, which never materialized. But now we certainly need to be skeptical about young Arab males who want to come here to learn how to fly. If the objective of Mr. Clarke is to punish Mr. Bush for not being sensitive enough to security matters, let him get it said, but bearing also in mind that Bill Clinton, the predecessor, did not himself act very energetically on homeland security, bequeathing his own arrangements to George W. Bush when, in 2001, Bush came into office.

A second preoccupation of Clarke seems to be the focus we placed on Iraq, instead of al-Qaeda. But we went promptly to war, and successfully, against al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, the terrorists' principal provisioner. The argument that, in the spring of 2003, we did not find weapons of mass destruction sitting there for us outside Baghdad has nothing to do with whether the strike against Saddam's Iraq, as hornet's nest of terrorism, was strategically justified. We know — the world knows — that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction and had used them, in Iran and against the Kurds. The International Institute of Strategic Studies determined on 2002 that Iraq could have nuclear weapons within months if it obtained fissile material from abroad.

The British historian-journalist William Shawcross has a valuable narrative of the hectic events of 2003 in his book Allies: The U.S., Britain, and Europe, and the War in Iraq. He has a keen eye for anomalies. M. Chirac had called Saddam "a personal friend and a great statesman.” Chirac is lucky never to have been a dissident general in Iraq. Bernard Kerik, former chief of the New York City Police Department, commissioned to organize a police department in Iraq, examined Iraqi police records and saw videos recording Saddam's tortures. These are said to have included "a tape of Saddam himself 'sitting and watching one of his military generals being eaten alive by Dobermans because the general's loyalty was in question.'”

Why does Clarke insist that our enterprise in Iraq suggests indifference to the greater threat of al-Qaeda? We have had to guard against them both, and in certain matters, al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein were indistinguishable. The Saddam-Iraq we have pursued under George W. with a large army is the same Saddam-Iraq we pursued twelve years earlier under George H. W., with an even larger army.

Thanks to whoever posted that Buckley column. I didn't realize he was still spouting such drivel. I has been under the mistaken impression that he is an intelligent fellow.

Just one phrase should make the point: "in certain matters, al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein were indistinguishable." Yeah, I guess they were all camel-jockeys.

And of course uses the right's favorite ploy - the fictional straw man on the left. Tell me: who are these people who "rail aganst ... Homeland Security." Names and dates please.

Ahmmm, the papers were written ex nihilo.

"And of course uses the right's favorite ploy - the fictional straw man on the left. Tell me: who are these people who "rail aganst ... Homeland Security." Names and dates please.

Posted by wvmcl"

This is the left's favorite high school debate team trick. When you don't like the truth you just demand "Names and dates please."

Why are economics and politics the only "sciences" that never got beyond high school debate level?

Adrian who did graduate from high school

I think Saletan's point was that the Bush people were so fanatically ABC (Anything But Clinton) that whatever Clinton did or would have done would be done some different way.

Result: economy.
Result: environment.
Result: civil rights.
Result: Israel/Palestine.
Result: North Korea.
Result: 9/11.

Even when they have to do something the way Clinton would have, they try to spin it in such a way that it appears to be their idea in the first place, or at least the good part where they fixed it after Clinton broke it. It really is pathetic.

the only thing worse than an underinformed troll is an underinformed troll who thinks cut-'n'-paste is analysis. that isn't even convincing in high school debate -- I used to write very cruel ballots to the kids who thought it was.

in re: Bush's grand 4. Sep 01 "plan," hey -- let's see some documents. Woodward saw the PDBs. the attack has happened. you'd think we could publish this stuff.

Buckley's 2nd paragraph seems to say base attacks on who is guilty. But is not the premise of going to war not guilty but rather threat to our national security? There are lots of dictators in the world who may be guilty of bad deeds, but the real case for invasion lies in protection - especially when we have limited resources.

The left's favorite debate trick is to ask someone who makes an assertion to produce the supporting evidence? How could they stoop to such a low-down stunt? Why don't they do what the right does - slime and smear?

"In the early days after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the Bush White House cut by nearly two-thirds an emergency request for counterterrorism funds by the FBI, an internal administration budget document shows.

The document, dated Oct. 12, 2001, shows that the FBI requested $1.5 billion in additional funds to enhance its counterterrorism efforts with the creation of 2,024 positions. But the White House Office of Management and Budget cut that request to $531 million."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13541-2004Mar21.html

If the Bush administration wasn't on the attack *after* 9/11 why would we ever believe they were beforehand?

Stirling Newberry -- great comment!!!!

Spencer,

That is true. Sterling's is a thought-provoking comment and deserves follow-on consideration. And yet the thread goes off the track because of a troll (and I certainly blame myself as well because I rose to the troll's bait).

Should we just ignore trolls and hope they go away? How do we increase the incidence of valuable, insightful posts and decrease the incidence of thoughtless, ideological posts?

The argument that "we were coming up with a new, better plan" really begs the question of why they stopped all the previous plans while they were doing that. I mean, surely they wanted to put in place new plans for most areas of government, but they didn't shut down the whole government until they finished them. Rumsfeld's big plans for reorganizing the military didn't require demobilizing the armed forces in the meantime.

No matter how great their supposed new plans were, I don't see how these actions can have any interpretation other than that they didn't think counter-terrorism (non-Iraqi) was very important, and figured nothing was likely to happen while they were thinking it over.

Let me make amends by asking a couple of questions about Sterling's great comment. Is it really true that inflation is returning? And what I really want to know -- why would the return of inflation be an indicator that the expansion is ending?

Buddy, I think you totally misread Saletan's article. That's some seriously sarcastic reporting he's doing.

Maybe he should have put in some emoticons for the more literal-minded...

Adrian,

It's been over TWO YEARS since 9/11 and our success in Afghanistan, where is OBL? Why were resources like Task Force 121 and Predators shifted to Iraq and just now being shifted back to Afghanistan? Why did Bush and company allow OBL to escape at Tora Bora? I thought Bush wanted him dead or alive. Or was that just more right-wing BS?

"Adrian,

It's been over TWO YEARS since 9/11 and our success in Afghanistan, where is OBL? Why were resources like Task Force 121 and Predators shifted to Iraq and just now being shifted back to Afghanistan? Why did Bush and company allow OBL to escape at Tora Bora? I thought Bush wanted him dead or alive. Or was that just more right-wing BS?

Posted by Walk The Walk"

Hey, it's been over 59 years since WW2 ended. We had the entire Third Army there for a decade and we still have troops there. Germany is smaller than Iraq.

WHERE THE HELL IS HITLER?

You lefties are trying too hard. You will never convince anyone who doesn't already agree with you.

Adrian

Stirling Newberry

Nicely written!

Even if Bush came up with an aggressive strategy against the Taliban and Bin Laden in his first hundred days and nuked Afghanistan to get Bin Laden, it would not have prevented the 9/11 attacks. The terrorists that committed the attacks were already in country, taking flying lessons, and implementing their plan before Bush was even the Republican nominee in 2000. Do you think that if we killed Bin Laden the terrorists would have called the whole thing off?

It is gratifying though that the Commission has apparently given a hearty endorsement to Bush preemption doctrine. The message from the Commission is clear: where there is a threat, don't wait, eliminate. I think that is something we can all agree on.

Stirling, with your eloquent style and even tempered manner you convincingly make it sound like the voice of reason, given sufficient time, will prevail in the end. Yet I wonder, have you ever looked at the political rants on AOL chats or Yahoo message boards? Scary! These people, just like the more erudite posters here, are voters too. I have a hard time connecting your thoughtful musings with their reality and having any confidence about seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

But don't stop writing, here or over at

http://www.bopnews.com/

Adrian Spidle wrote, "Hey, it's been over 59 years since WW2 ended. We had the entire Third Army there for a decade and we still have troops there. Germany is smaller than Iraq. WHERE THE HELL IS HITLER?"

Huh? You know the answer: we have currently have troops in Germany as part of a forward deployment; there's certainly no threat in Europe _per se_...up to the late 20th century we had troops there because of the commies next door. You're just erecting a strawman.

Beautiful comment Stirling. I wonder if it will end up printed out and posted on Brad's refrigrator.

It is odd that the Bush administration argues that they disagreed with Clarke because he just wanted oxymoronic roll back containment and they wanted to eliminate al Qaeda. Clarke had quite a different recollection when he testified under oath.

CLARKE: It is, but it requires a bit of elaboration. As your staff brief said, the goal of the Delenda Plan was to roll back al Qaeda over the course of three to five years so that it was just a nub of an organization like Abu Nidal that didn't threaten the United States.

"Clarke ...I tried to insert the phrase early in the Bush administration in the draft NSPD that our goal should be to eliminate al Qaeda. And I was told by various members of the deputies committee that that was overly ambitious and that we should take the word eliminate out and say significantly erode. "

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A20349-2004Mar24.html

then search for "erode" (a word that does not appear in any testimony before Clarke for some curious reason).

The final NSPD exists, although it is classified.
Clarke must know that if it says that the goal was to "eliminate" al Qaeda it will be (partially) declassified as fast as a background briefing gets to Fox news.

The whole Bush administration defence of their lost 7 months and 21 days is that they moved from "roll back" to "eliminate". Brad is right that this is a purely verbal change.

However, I am sure that they moved from "roll back" to "significantly erode" so the straw they are grasping is a grassy plant support related program activity.

I would say that this will erode their credibility but I don't think they have any credibility left to erode.

Last post I managed to resist the temptation to feed the trolls, but I can't help myself.

Adrian: Hitler is dead. His body with a bullet in his brain was recovered.

More importantly Nazism has been rolled back to a Republican candidate for governor of Louisiana, and few tens of thousands of violence addicted skin heads, who would be satanists or something if Hitler had never lived (with all respect for decent Satanists exercising their first amendment rights).

Winning WWII was a necessary step in the defeat of nazism, but if Truman's approach to Germany were like Bush's approach to Afganistan Nazism would probably be a living force.

To Teddy: Many of the hijackers entered the US in and after April 2001. If the Bush administration had really gone to Clinton admin in 1999 battle stations, they might have been stopped at the border as the al Qaeda milenium terrorist team was. The Clinton administration might have been lucky, but it is just not true that al Qaeda couldn't have been stopped. They were not able assault the USA in the last 7 years of the Clinton administration and that's a fact.

Buckley like Adrian seems to find mere facts beneath him.

Actually Adrian did pick up the Clarke August backgrounder very quickly (see comments to the Angel post below). Buckley hasn't bothered with evidence in decades (too busy you know).

So "whether the strike against Saddam's Iraq, as hornet's nest of terrorism, was strategically justified" is 10 years out of date. Hussein's Iraq has supported terrorists (Abu Nidal started out there). However, there is no evidence that they were still a hornet's nest of terrorism in 2002.

Oddly Buckley is sloppy with past tenses. Actually it is more likely he is trying to be sly. Normally the "had" in "We know — the world knows — that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction " would mean he had them at the time Bush decided to invade. This is very unlikely (ask David Kay). What we know is that he had had weapons of mass destruction before the first wave of UN inspections (1992). Again 10 years = no dif for Buckley.

Must be his age. To me the 90s lasted about half as long as the 80s. I guess to Buckley a decade is a blink of the eye.

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