Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

I think it is getting very bad. Based on blogs of Iraqis and journalists in Iraq (such as riverbendblog.blogspot.com and www.empirenotes.com but there are various others), it seems like there has been a big turning point in the last few weeks.

The US appears to have tried a series of crackdown moves which have totally backfired, and are creating widespread popular opposition amongst all Iraqis and a growing degree of solidarity between the Sunni and Shi'a and other groups.

It seems to have started with their frankly stupid move against Sadr's militia - closing down their internal newspaper on a totally trumped-up charge. But the real big response seems to be in reaction to US actions in Fallujah.

Basically in response to an uptick in guerilla activity (which many Iraqis at least see as provoked by the US causing several civilian deaths in the area), the US decided to put the entire town under seige and send in the heavy artillery. The Iraqis are now extremely worried that the entire town is in danger of starvation, and there is a huge popular effort underway to assemble supplies and get them into the beseiged area.

This sort of thing ought to be a chapter in the book on "how not to fight against guerillas that don't yet have mass popular support". From the comments on the Iraq blogs, it has provoked average Iraqis into a new mood of anti-US solidarity. The big handicap to the resistance so far has been it's disunity - various groups fight the Americans, but mostly have nothing to do with each other lack mass support. The solidarity and mass support now seem likely to emerge as the US continues the crackdown with increasingly blunt military instruments and alienates even more Iraqis.

promises of jobs

Yes and Bush has promised us jobs too.

Successful counter-insurgency strategy always relies on two interrelated elements: a military campaign aimed at the perpetrators of violence, and a political campaign designed to isolate them from the wider population.

If the wider population is a target whether or not they support the perpetrators of violence what is to deter them from supporting the insurgency or seeking personal revenge?

I don't think this is a widespread revolt, but a lot of Iraqis seem to be sick and tired of the United States' poor Administration and are ready and willing to either passively or actively support those acting against American forces.

At the very least they're turning a blind eye, and many are actually giving comfort and aid. Every day this is prolonged, Sadr looks bigger and we look weaker. And there is nothing more dangerous than looking weak and indecisive.

I don't think this is a widespread revolt, but a lot of Iraqis seem to be sick and tired of the United States' poor Administration and are ready and willing to either passively or actively support those acting against American forces.

At the very least they're turning a blind eye, and many are actually giving comfort and aid. Every day this is prolonged, Sadr looks bigger and we look weaker. And there is nothing more dangerous than looking weak and indecisive.

We have united the Sunni and the Shia (thereby having achieved something good, historically speaking). Maybe over half the country is behind the riot, at this point. The others are probably thinking about joining or just staying home, because the U.S. effort has demoralized them, and siding with the U.S. now, means certain death not much later . The U.S. may quell this with sufficient force, but among other things it means entering Najaf, a worldwide Shiite holy city that has up to now been strictly off limits. And we will have gotten nowhere. Afterward, we will be have to be garrisoned impregnably, and there will be total hostility outside our bases, everywhere in Iraq. There is really no one to hand off authority to. The governing council are crooks and double-dealers, and even the moderates who might have backed us know it. So if they try to be in charge, they will be killed, unless they stay with us on our bases. There may be no Iraqi police or paramilitary force to speak of; they were never very competent or numerous, and two reports in two days show they're joining the with the rest of their fellow Iraqis. So what's left?

They are telling us in no uncertain terms to get the hell out so they can go about their civil war. From their perspective we are impeading the settling of old scores. They could give an RF about our goals for Iraq.
Has anybody heard anyone talking about "Flypaper" or "Bring Em On"?
"Bring em on" Hell! Bring Em Home!!

Najaf and Kufa in the hands of militias. Say wha'?

Those militias are supposed to be our friends. They are arms of the parties we are holding elections for, remember?

Put differently, Menachem Begin and Lyndon Johnson both resigned when it became clear that they had totally and utterly got everything wrong. What did Bar Bush do wrong in bringing up her children that Bushbaby can't behave in the accepted manner?

Why don't you stop sighing, fly to Iraq and do something? Or come up with an honest plan on how to fix what's going on in Iraq?

People are risking their lives to try to solve these problems (and I'd like to see Bush and Cheney over in Iraq, too), but here we get this "sighing" from a soft Berklee prof on the other side of the world...

Kevin,

The problem is not in Iraq, it's in the United States.

Iraq is simply the place where people get to suffer from America's problem.

The "honest plan on how to fix what's going on in Iraq":

Sadly, the best plan may be to withdraw immediately. We could cover our supposed "weakness" by saying: "We got rid of Saddam, but our efforts to set up a true democracy are being confounded. We do not wish to shed more blood. We apologize that our own fears about Saddam put us at odds with the United Nations, where we never wished to be. Therefore we withdraw, offering the free Iraqi people future material and financial aid for whatever they see fit, and hoping that they will join the community of nations for peace."

We do this publicly, in front of television cameras, with Bremer, Sistani, Kofi Annan, and the other officials present. We allow Sistani and the others to speak to the world also, at this event. Then we leave at once.

In less than a generation, this act will redound to our everlasting favor throughout the Muslim world--especially if we had immediately turned to make a serious effort on Israel and Palestine. (Not necessarily successful, just serious and steadfast.)

In concert with this, of course, ongoing special forces to take out terrorist cells everywhere.

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Amor animi arbitrio sumitur, non ponitur - We choose to love, we do not choose to cease loving. (Syrus)

Do ut des - I give so that you give back

Sic ad nauseam - And so on to the point of causing nausea