April 11, 2004

How Much Trouble Are We in?

If there are many marines who believe (a) that "innocents" are "few and far between" in Fallujah, and that (b) the green light has been given to do "whatever is needed to win this thing" against the non-innocents, then we are in big trouble indeed:

www.AndrewSullivan.com - Daily Dish: A marine writes home:

Things have been busy here. You know I can't say much about it. However, I do know two things. One, POTUS has given us the green light to do whatever we needed to do to win this thing so we have that going for us. Two, and my opinion only, this battle is going to have far reaching effects on not only the war here in Iraq but in the overall war on terrorism. We have to be very precise in our application of combat power. We cannot kill a lot of innocent folks (though they are few and far between in Fallujah). There will be no shock and awe. There will be plenty of bloodshed at the lowest levels. This battle is the Marine Corps' Belleau Wood for this war. 2/1 and 1/5 will be leading the way. We have to find a way to kill the bad guys only. The Fallujahans are fired up and ready for a fight (or so they think). A lot of terrorists and foreign fighters are holed up in Fallujah. It has been a sanctuary for them. If they have not left town they are going to die. I'm hoping they stay and fight...

Hopefully this is very unrepresentative...


UPDATE: The Daily Telegraph reports that U.S. soldiers who believe that innocents are "few and far between" in Iraq are quite common:

Telegraph | News | US tactics condemned by British officers: ...One senior Army officer told The Telegraph that America's aggressive methods were causing friction among allied commanders and that there was a growing sense of "unease and frustration" among the British high command.... "My view and the view of the British chain of command is that the Americans' use of violence is not proportionate and is over-responsive to the threat they are facing. They don't see the Iraqi people the way we see them. They view them as untermenschen. They are not concerned about the Iraqi loss of life in the way the British are. Their attitude towards the Iraqis is tragic, it's awful. The US troops view things in very simplistic terms. It seems hard for them to reconcile subtleties between who supports what and who doesn't in Iraq. It's easier for their soldiers to group all Iraqis as the bad guys. As far as they are concerned Iraq is bandit country and everybody is out to kill them."...

The officer explained that, under British military rules of war, British troops would never be given clearance to carry out attacks similar to those being conducted by the US military, in which helicopter gunships have been used to fire on targets in urban areas. British rules of engagement only allow troops to open fire when attacked, using the minimum force necessary and only at identified targets. The American approach was markedly different: "When US troops are attacked with mortars in Baghdad, they use mortar-locating radar to find the firing point and then attack the general area with artillery, even though the area they are attacking may be in the middle of a densely populated residential area. "They may well kill the terrorists in the barrage but they will also kill and maim innocent civilians. That has been their response on a number of occasions. It is trite, but American troops do shoot first and ask questions later. They are very concerned about taking casualties and have even trained their guns on British troops, which has led to some confrontations between soldiers. The British response in Iraq has been much softer. During and after the war the British set about trying to win the confidence of the local population. There have been problems, it hasn't been easy but on the whole it was succeeding."

The officer believed that America had now lost the military initiative in Iraq, and it could only be regained with carefully planned, precision attacks against the "terrorists". "The US will have to abandon the sledgehammer-to-crack-a-nut approach - it has failed," he said. "They need to stop viewing every Iraqi, every Arab as the enemy and attempt to win the hearts and minds of the people. Our objective is to create a stable, democratic and safe Iraq. That's achievable but not in the short term. It is going to take up to 10 years."

Posted by DeLong at April 11, 2004 05:52 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

All I can say is VN all over again, in smaller scale.

Posted by: david on April 10, 2004 11:59 AM

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Not Vietnam, I think. More likely we are witnessing something that closely parallels the creation of Hezbollah in Lebanon. We get to play the Israelis in this little kabuki and all that implies...

Posted by: jim in austin on April 10, 2004 12:17 PM

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Why do I feel like I have slipped into one of Robert Heinlein's alternate time lines? I wonder what this one would be called.

Posted by: Ron in Portland on April 10, 2004 12:18 PM

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Hopefully this is a genuine post by an engaged combatant. Hoorah for our side! May his courageous fighting spirit preserve him and lead him and his compatriots to victory over the terrorists.

Posted by: don majors on April 10, 2004 12:19 PM

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Someone in this thread seems to have attended the Soviet school of rhetorical flourish.

Posted by: Waffle on April 10, 2004 12:25 PM

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Come on

Big Village

Be quick

Bring Packs

PS Bring Packs

Posted by: SW on April 10, 2004 12:26 PM

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Has anyone ever noticed how strikingly unhip muslim people are; if this happened in a western country we would all be running around saying: "I, for one, welcome our foreign overlords."


*SIGH*

It just doesn't seem very fair to be judging these people that are probably not as hip as us.

Posted by: bryan on April 10, 2004 12:53 PM

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Dear God...
"A lot of terrorists and foreign fighters are holed up in Fallujah. It has been a sanctuary for them. If they have not left town they are going to die. I'm hoping they stay and fight..."

Hoping they Stay? They have a choice?

"...Scores of Falluja residents tried to leave the city Friday... Troops used loud speakers overnight to tell people that old men, women and children would be allowed to leave,but not "military-age men." [http://www.iht.com/articles/514116.html]

From my set theory /logic classes of very long ago

1. If a Man stays, he dies
2. All Men must stay,
3. therefore, all Men...

Posted by: Kathryn in Sunnyvale on April 10, 2004 01:01 PM

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While the tactical presentation may share some commanality with Belleau Wood, the fact is that in Fallujah they're dealing with an indigenous revolt, not trying to dislodge foreign invaders.

I realize that the bushies find it comforting to characterize this as a collection of terrorists and foreigners, but I believe that to be a Rovian attempt at spinning the situation for domestic political purposes.

Posted by: djs on April 10, 2004 01:01 PM

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Waffle: Mere support for our sons and daughters.

Vsego dobrogo

Posted by: don majors on April 10, 2004 01:03 PM

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"Why do I feel like I have slipped into one of Robert Heinlein's alternate time lines? I wonder what this one would be called."

Posted by: Ron in Portland on April 10, 2004 12:18 PM

I'd say 'The Crazy Years'. We'll see in November just how crazy. If Bush is re-elected, then a majority of the US voters are crazy. Or the GOP has control of the system.

Posted by: Barry on April 10, 2004 01:41 PM

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..or advertising works, and Bush's quarter billion in advertising works better than Kerry's tenth.

here in Minnesota, there are five (or more) Bush commercials for every Kerry offering, and Bush's ads, while often Big Fat Lies, are a hundred times better made.

I don't drink Coca Cola, but an awful lot of people do.

Posted by: wcw on April 10, 2004 01:46 PM

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I have seen this quote in a number of places. I have seen people respond both with pride, and with horror. An interesting litmus test.

Posted by: tbrosz on April 10, 2004 02:09 PM

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You don't come away with any respect for the guy's understanding of Iraq. He doesn't even seem to know that the Shia and Sunni are working together, that 5-7 cities are out of our control, and that our friendly Iraq forces vanished or switched. But he's got the green light from the Prez, and he's going to go kill the evildoers, terrorists, and foreigners. And then everything will by all right.

Posted by: Zizka on April 10, 2004 02:23 PM

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A curious aspect of all this is that as the Marines were preparing for their deployment, there was a lot of press about how they were not going to use the rough tactics of the Army units they were replacing, but win Iraqi hearts and minds by killing them with kindness, so to speak. I'm assuming that that policy is now inoperative.

Posted by: Arnold Snarb on April 10, 2004 02:35 PM

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The system...reason...it's all breaking down.

"We have all become God's mad men......All of us."

Posted by: CapTVK on April 10, 2004 02:41 PM

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When this soldier and his like-minded comrades return from this war and if Bush is reelected expect the same rhetoric and action to be applied against all liberals in America and any Republicans who have voiced their quiet little dissents.

I'm a liberal who will be ready. I can't wait.

Posted by: John Thullen on April 10, 2004 02:55 PM

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Remember that this is a "test of will"-- that's practically all we hear from our Dear Leadership. Just like back in the good old days in the Highlands and the Delta. Ah, nostalgia.

It would be novel if some of those highly-placed deep thinkers in Washington would regard it as a test of brains. Maybe even salutary.

And I don't mean that poor Marine, who's just a cog in the machine and needs to feel somehow that he can get some control.

Posted by: Altoid on April 10, 2004 03:10 PM

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For people who think Iraq war is great or that the US is fighting terrorists, get your ass to Iraq. Gen Abizaid is desperately looking for more warm bodies. I am certain some of you can drive supply trucks or carry bags for soldiers. There should be plenty for the braves to do in Iraq.

Posted by: david on April 10, 2004 03:11 PM

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I agree with Altoid. This is some guy dealing with the plain fact that he is going to go and kill or be killed. He has a duty, and he is going to do it. In Viet Nam, a lot of men my age did exactly the same thing. We did not all believe that the war was a good idea, but we volunteered or were drafted, and went where we were sent, and did what we were told to do as well as we could, regardless of our opinions. That is admirable and necessary. Blame falls only on the leaders, and those of us who do not do what needs to be done to rectify the situation that put him at risk.

Posted by: masaccio on April 10, 2004 03:47 PM

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I don't remember anyone with half a brain in Nam praising Nixon (Thanks Dick for mining the harbor) while they were swatting flys.

Posted by: SW on April 10, 2004 03:58 PM

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"I guess you would prefer him to have said. . ."

Typical binary thinking from the right. If not 1 then 0 (where 0 is some ridiculous proposition). There are more than two choices here but this administration seems unable to see more than two courses of action for any situation.

Posted by: Fledermaus on April 10, 2004 04:37 PM

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Bill S, are you a supporter of America's war in Iraq? If so, are you willing to volunteer to do combat duty in Iraq, to potentially sacrifice your life in Iraq?

Our kids are being wasted. What are they dying for? The esteemed The Economist and the further esteemed American Enterprise Institute haven't told us.

The US Marine blogger signed up to defend his country. If we could ask him how being in Iraq is defending America, I don't think he'd have an answer. Neo-cons or supporters of America's war in Iraq, here's your chance...what are we doing in Iraq?

Posted by: phil on April 10, 2004 04:58 PM

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A re-read of Pity the Nation, by Robert Fisk might be in order. That details what when wrong for Israel and subsequently the US in Lebanon. I wonder if Mr Bush or Ms Rice has read that book?

I don't see that the US has many choices in Falloojah. There is complete loss of law and order. Either the US has to 1) passify them with military action, 2) isolate them with a blockade or 3) find some third party that can accomodate them and get them under control.

Posted by: bakho on April 10, 2004 05:23 PM

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"Remember that this is a "test of will"-- that's practically all we hear from our Dear Leadership. Just like back in the good old days in the Highlands and the Delta. Ah, nostalgia."

Indeed.

"We, held the day,..
in the palm of our hands
They, ruled the night
And the night, seemed to last
as long as six weeks
On Parris Island
We held the coastline
they held the highland
and they were sharp
as sharp as knives
they heard the hum of the mortars
they counted the rotors
and waited for us to arrive

and we would all go down together
we said we'd all go down together
yes we would all go down together."

Even after a week of this, I still can't believe our leaders have chosen to turn this into an ever-widening war on the people we were supposed to be liberating. Bush today, in his weekly radio address:

"Coalition forces will continue a multi-city offensive ... until these enemies of democracy are dealt with."

And the rest of us here on the home front have a choice of laughing at the insanity of it all, or crying out to the heavens on account of the blood that will be shed in the name of the insanity.

Posted by: RT on April 10, 2004 05:44 PM

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All of this is only a rehearsal for the civil war here at home.

Posted by: Frank Wilhoit on April 10, 2004 06:03 PM

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When this soldier and his like-minded comrades return from this war and if Bush is reelected expect the same rhetoric and action to be applied against all liberals in America and any Republicans who have voiced their quiet little dissents.

I'm a liberal who will be ready. I can't wait.

Posted by John Thullen at April 10, 2004 02:55 PM

All of this is only a rehearsal for the civil war here at home.


Posted by Frank Wilhoit at April 10, 2004 06:03 PM

What?? I hope this is some kind of sick joke. My Bush hatred doesn't run that deep. However, I've asked myself, would I be like Jimmy Stewart in It's a Wonderful Life and jump from a bridge to save George W. Bush's life? I can't answer it.

But anyway, liberals would lose. I hear Republicans control the military-industrial complex.

Posted by: eeh on April 10, 2004 06:15 PM

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I always laugh a bit when I hear the part about the "test of wills". I mean, who do you think has a stronger will, someone who is fighting in his own land and defending family, honor, country, etc. or a foreigner that a year ago didn't even knew what the place looked like. Nobody cares more about Irak than the Iraquis, period, just as nobody cares more about the USA than Americans. It's dumb to presume otherwise. You can have better weapons, more soldiers, etc. but if the battle is decided on willpower...

Posted by: Carlos on April 10, 2004 06:53 PM

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Brad, I think the guy is absolutely right. Never mind the "few and far between". The rest of his letter makes perfect sense. The "bad guys" have concentrated their forces. For as long as they remain so, they are a very good target.

So long as there's widespread distrust of the rebels--and there is, just read some of the popular Iraqi blogs--millitary operations against them are not contra-indicated.


Now, I happen to agree with Raed (raed in the middle), that Iraq should have been left alone to some extent, to muddle out it's own problems. (Self determiniation anyone?) But an uprising of limited popularity is fair game. So long as they are careful to do it with light weapons--marine style--, and not 500 pound bombs, airforce style.

Posted by: p mac on April 10, 2004 07:06 PM

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Fallujah is a bad place. It has well earned everything that the Marines might do to it. Here's hoping that we put maximum firepower on it to minimize the loss of U.S. lives.

(And if you're going to ask whether I would be willing to go to Iraq to fight, the answer is yes. Just as I did as a Marine in Vietnam.)

Posted by: Lawrence on April 10, 2004 07:17 PM

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"Fallujah is a bad place. It has well earned everything that the Marines might do to it."

So anyone who sympathizes with the people who murdered the mercenaries in Fallujah is also a terrorist and deserves to be blown away? This is crazy. This is genocide.

Posted by: * on April 10, 2004 08:23 PM

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Get your ass over there, Larry.

Posted by: * on April 10, 2004 08:25 PM

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Over one year after the war started and we are still not in control of a major city like Falloojah? This tells me that the politicians are running the war, not the generals. We don't have enough troops to pacify Falloojah. As for Iraqis not wanting to fight, well duh. We fired all the best trained fighters. The best trained are fighting against us. The fighters we trained don't have the experience yet. You have to ask, why is it US soldiers have to keep the peace in Falloojah? Why are the Iraqi's not keeping the peace in Falloojah? The answer is that we have not let the Iraqis keep the peace. The politicians made stupid rules about not letting any person in the Baath remain in the army or any public service. Since being in the army or any public service under Saddam required joining the Baath, this means that everyone trained or qualified was fired when the US took over.

At this point the US needs to show that they can drive through the city at will, Then we need to negotiate with the major opposition and cut a deal. We give them control of the city, but under our rules and respect for human rights. Let them reestablish law and order and threaten them with punishment if they fail.

Of course, the politicians would object to any such deal in fighters in Falloojah. The US really does not need to do Falloojah again. We need to pacify the city and restore law and order. Since we don't have the troops to do so, then we need to make deals with those Iraqis that have enough power to do it for us.

The model of people's committees organizing at the neighborhood level and coordinating with higher level councils was never tried. Of course that does not fit with multi-million dollar contracts to Halliburton.

Reports are that the people that killed the US "contractors" in Falloojah are not the same ones that mutilated the bodies. Some reports suggest much of the mutilation was done by teenage boys. Lord of the Flies.

Posted by: bakho on April 10, 2004 10:29 PM

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"3. therefore, all Men..."

Are terrorists? Praise the lord and pass the ammo!

Posted by: digger on April 11, 2004 07:21 AM

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What I truly did not like reading and hearing, was the fact that the marines were sending men back into the city, as civilians were leaving during the cease fire.

If they had wanted to, they could have detained the men, until operations were over. But they sent men of a military age back into the city.

Why? Because they want targets?

Where's the logic? It's been stated that a total of 60.000 civilians left. How many men tried to leave? And why would the marines send them back? Wasn't it an advantage that the men who could raise weapons against the marines were leaving?

Fallujah (and Ar Ramadi) will go down in the history books as great scandals, massacres.

Posted by: SXL on April 11, 2004 08:18 AM

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"...anyone who sympathizes with the people who murdered the mercenaries in Fallujah is also a terrorist and deserves to be blown away?"
Seems like a reasonable proposition to me if they're providing support to the murders/terrorists.

"Get your ass over there, Larry."
I'm trying, man, I'm trying!

Posted by: Lawrence on April 11, 2004 11:41 AM

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"Fallujah is a bad place. It has well earned everything that the Marines might do to it. Here's hoping that we put maximum firepower on it to minimize the loss of U.S. lives. "

Fallujah is not an "it", it is a city of 300,000 people. We have already killed over 600 of those people, many of those civilians.

Whatever you might think of Iraqis or Muslims, we are STILL bound by the laws of war, which say that collective punishmnet is a war crime. (As is planning aggressive war against a country that has not attacked you.)

And it appears pretty clearly, just from that number -- 600 dead in response to 4 dead -- that we are engaging in colective punishment there.

Posted by: Dave Johnson on April 11, 2004 05:08 PM

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Word from returning non-comm is coalition command, "reduce Falluja to glowing glass."

Well, the Zionista's have their Palestine, and
now Neo's have their proto-Palestine in Iraq. Tomorrow, we have our first Sabra, Shatila and Jenin, and then will come the hand-wringing and the rewriting of history, until the next agents provacateur-manufactured mujahadden attack gets them off the hook, and BushCo back in the W.H.
It's worked like a charm for Sharon in Israel!

BTW, also word from returning non-comm's those mercenary ex-Seals "contractors" running food security broke std-op's, in Falluja w/o escort.
For the f&*kup of four who should have known better, 40,000 to be incinerated by Imperions.

Is this a great country or what?!

Posted by: Greg Glass on April 11, 2004 05:46 PM

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Rahul Mahajan from www.empirenotes.org was actually in Fallujah yesterday, and posted what he saw on his blog.

Among other things, two ambulances with extremely precise bullet holes indicating that the drivers had been taken out by snipers (and one of his companions was shot at in another ambulance).

Posted by: Ian Montgomerie on April 11, 2004 06:09 PM

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Do "clans" know frontiers?

Posted by: McDouglas on April 11, 2004 06:14 PM

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"Rahul Mahajan from www.empirenotes.org was actually in Fallujah yesterday, and posted what he saw on his blog.

Among other things, two ambulances with extremely precise bullet holes indicating that the drivers had been taken out by snipers..."

The ambulances were transporting weapons to the insurgents. Not surprising they were taken under fire. I would have blown them up so they couldn't be used for that purpose again.

Posted by: Lawrence on April 11, 2004 06:27 PM

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Ian Montgomerie writes: "Rahul Mahajan from www.empirenotes.org was actually in Fallujah yesterday, and posted what he saw on his blog."

"Among other things, two ambulances with extremely precise bullet holes indicating that the drivers had been taken out by snipers (and one of his companions was shot at in another ambulance)."

Whose snipers? Not saying American troops didn't do this, but one of the noteworthy points about the Yugoslavia imbroglio was the way all three factions would attack their own people and blame one or both of the others.


Posted by: Steven Rogers on April 11, 2004 06:41 PM

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At a certain level of escalation, for example a deliberate massacre in Fallujah or the adoption of a draft, an intense war against the "enemies at home" would become necessary. I.E., about 3/4 of the people posting here.

The way things are falling apart, this may be the only electoral strategy Bush has. Escalation and demonization.

Posted by: Zizka on April 11, 2004 07:04 PM

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I haven't had time to read every response on this thread, but a piece by Paul McGeough from today's "Sydney Morning Herald" gives another example of an emerging American attitude in Iraq:

How GI bullies are making enemies of their Iraqi friends
April 12, 2004 - 1:10AM

Iraqis who detested Saddam and welcomed the invasion are uniting against a new perceived oppressor - the US. Paul McGeough reports from Baghdad.

It should have been a weekend of celebration - the first anniversary of the toppling of Saddam Hussein and the first chance in decades for millions of Iraqi Shiites to join the Arbi'een pilgrimage to the southern shrine city of Kerbala - their holiest day which had been outlawed by Saddam.

Instead, the country is in convulsions and it seems the Americans have already lost the battle for Iraqi hearts and minds.

The Tigris River was like glass beneath an empty corn-blue sky as we set out for the Mother of All Battles Mosque to talk to Sunnis and Shiites, who, after centuries of enmity, were working together, packing trucks for a humanitarian convoy to besieged Falluja.

We were approaching an overpass when suddenly there were multiple explosions and a towering pillar of smoke. Ammunition was going off in the blazing wreck of a US tank on the highway below. The rest of the US convoy had fled, but one of the insurgents had hung back to observe their handiwork.

When we slowed to ask a man on the bridge what had happened, he jumped into a car that went off at speed, saying: "I'm from Falluja. Now I go back to continue fighting."

Under the next overpass, 37-year-old Sallah Hashosh was selling lambs for the feast that marks Arbi'een. But business was poor. People were too frightened to leave their homes. Clutching a fat-tailed, woolly lamb that he reckoned should fetch $A60, he confessed to being confused.

"I didn't expect this. It was good that Saddam fell, but unless the Americans go, all Iraqis will fight. We are becoming one nation."

We were on the road to Falluja, so it was reasonable to conclude these were reflections of a Sunni. But the sheep-seller was a Shiite.

In the last week the Americans have managed what the Iraqis have been unable to achieve in a year - a sense of national unity. But the glue is outrage and anger as Iraqis who have stood back from Washington's attempt to remake the country have found voice and weapons to challenge the US occupation.

The Americans have isolated themselves by mistakenly believing they could challenge the Mehdi Army of the radical Shiite Moqtada al-Sadr at the same time as it mounted a punishing attack on the vexing Sunni city of Falluja, west of Baghdad.

The Iraqi Governing Council, the ineffectual body Washington stacked with friendly exiles, turned against the US for the first time; many in the new Iraqi police force fled their posts; an entire battalion of the new Iraqi army is said to have refused to join the assault on Falluja.

By some estimates, as many as 25 per cent of the new Iraqi security forces, on which the US is depending to impose law and order after June 30, has quit or simply melted away.

It was one thing for the Americans to be killing small numbers of Sunni insurgents, but when the guns were turned on majority Shiites last week and the Iraqi death toll in Falluja was being counted in hundreds, Iraqis said "enough".

To Western eyes, the Iraqi tactics are appalling - particularly the butchery of US security contractors and hostage-taking - but they required a smarter response from the US.

On Thursday last week, the US commander, Ricardo Sanchez, was dismissive about negotiating with the Falluja insurgents, yet in the face of actual and threatened resignations by IGC members, he caved in.

With the end of the religious commemoration at Kerbala yesterday, the Americans say they will embark on a new assault on elements of the Mehdi Army still in control of sections of the holy cities of Najaf and Kufa. They also intend to arrest Sadr on a murder warrant, a move many Iraqis warn will stoke the revolt.

Hachim Hassani, an Iraqi Islamic Party alternate ICG delegate, said: "The coalition has opened too many fronts in Iraq, alienating a large swath of the population. The Iraqi people now equate democracy with bloodshed."

But the most stinging rebuke came from a man on whom the Americans thought the could rely - the highly-respected Adnan Pachachi, a former foreign minister of Iraq who is so close to Washington that three months ago he was given the honour of escorting the First Lady, Laura Bush, to the State of the Union address.

That he spoke out was bad enough for American credibility here; but that he chose to do so on Al Arabiya, the Arab satellite TV channel so hated by the Pentagon, was open defiance.

Pachachi, an IGC member, invoked one of the constant Arab criticism of the Israel's collective punishment of whole Palestinian families or communities in the occupied territories, when he said: "It is not right to punish all the people of Falluja, and we consider these operations by the Americans unacceptable and illegal."

The upshot is that the Americans have made something of a national hero of Moqtada al-Sadr, and in the eyes of many Iraqis they have become a heavy-handed occupation force with its own designs for post-Saddam Iraq.

Still refusing to acknowledge a rising consensus among observers that it faces a broad-based nationalist movement, President George Bush insisted in a weekend radio address that "a small faction is attempting to . . . seize power", and his Baghdad spokesman, Dan Senor, railed against "two-bit thugs . . . despised by a majority of Iraqis".

But, while the Americans kill Iraqis in the numbers that they have taken to, they will have little or no support from Iraqis - no politician or religious leader can afford such an association. Personally many find it distasteful and if they were to support it publicly, they would go through their lives fearing a fate similar to that of the US security contractors in Falluja.

Unless the US can pull back, it risks having no Iraqi administration for what is largely a ceremonial return of sovereign power to Iraqis on June 30. There is still no agreement on the make-up of the proposed administration, and the events of the last week could leave the US alone at the negotiating table as it attempts to craft one.

The US is close to being as isolated in Iraq as the Firdos Square plinth from which US forces stage-managed the demolition of a statue of Saddam on April 9 last year. Few Iraqis were there to celebrate last year and none were in the square for the first anniversary.

Access was denied as part of a tight US security lockdown. US tanks prowled the square and loud-hailers were used to warn that those who approached the square could be shot on sight.

The only other weekend activity in the square was the arrival, almost to the hour of the anniversary of the statue coming down, of a team of US soldiers.

Despite the chaos across the city, it was deemed important enough for them to be sent to the square with a ladder to remove posters of Moqtada al-Sadr that Iraqis had hung from the obscure sculpture which has replaced Saddam on the plinth.

But just off the square, in a shuttered shop, there was a stunning measure of how the US has squandered Iraqi support.

The 56-year-old shopkeeper was too scared to give his name. Among his bolts of cloth and bottles of detergent, he talked about how this time last year his family's hopes were so high, but now they feared that things would just get worse.

The son of a Shiite father and a Sunni mother, he spoke of his two brothers who Saddam had executed as political prisoners, and then he gave his verdict on the occupation: "The invasion was a bad idea. Saddam was bad and Bush is bad - but we'd have Saddam back any day."

Sadeer, my driver in Baghdad, is leaning the same way.

When he arrived at the Palestine Hotel yesterday he was limping; the leg of his jeans was soaked in blood. The cut was small and we were able to bandage it, but George Bush had lost another Iraqi friend.

Sadeer, a 28-year-old Shiite, had been an enthusiastic supporter of the Americans and he takes his life in his hands by working for me. Iraqis are being executed just for being in the company of Westerners.

But his encounter with a bullying US soldier, who roughed him up as he came through the security cordon around the hotel, has pushed him into the nationalist Iraqi camp.

When the GI challenged him, Sadeer tried to explain in his limited English that he entered the hotel routinely. But he was barked at, shoved away and then belted on the foot with a rifle. He used to slow in traffic to greet the US troops. Now he has turned: "Americans bad for Iraq - too many problems."

Leaving the hotel on foot, we had to go through the same streets to get to his car. I tried to explain our movements to the officer in charge of a US tank unit, but we were greeted with a stream of invective.

As I thanked the officer for his civility and moved on, one of his men fell in beside me, mumbling. Asked to repeat himself, he exploded: "Don't you f---in' eyeball me."

Nodding to his officer and raising his weapon, he shrieked: "He has rank to lose. I don't. I'll take you out quick as a flash, motherf---er!"

Posted by: Steve on April 11, 2004 07:14 PM

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Maybe the US in Falloojah is following the Syrian model in Hama in 1982. Few Americans know about Hama, but quite a few know about the organization named after it, Hamas.

http://www.shrc.org/english/99reports/18021999.htm

Posted by: bakho on April 11, 2004 07:35 PM

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Well, if by "innocents" you mean Fallujahans who don't support the insurgents' military actions against the US, they really ARE few and far between -- according to that ABC poll, they comprise only about 25-30% of the population. But this doesn't do us a great deal of good -- if we do what some of the wilder-eyed bloggers are suggesting and stage a flat-out massacre in Fallujah, it will trigger most of the people in Iraq (or at least most of its Sunnis) to turn on us. (For that matter, two of the members of the IGC who have either resigned or are threatening to in response to our military actions in Fallujah are Shiites.)

Any attempt by us to pacify and civilize Iraq now will be incredibly expensive and time-consuming -- even more so than it would have been if the Cheney-Rumsfeld-Wolfowitz Demolition Company hadn't completely bungled its beginnings. We had better start seriously considering whether our best option -- out of a set of bad ones -- may be to simply pull our military forces out of non-Kurdish Iraq, while continuing to offer the country humanitarian and economic aide contingent on the behavior of its citizens. We have bigger fish to fry -- starting with Iran and its imminent Bomb.

Posted by: Bruce Moomaw on April 11, 2004 07:37 PM

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Well, if by "innocents" you mean Fallujahans who don't support the insurgents' military actions against the US, they really ARE few and far between -- according to that ABC poll, they comprise only about 25-30% of the population. But this doesn't do us a great deal of good -- if we do what some of the wilder-eyed bloggers are suggesting and stage a flat-out massacre in Fallujah, it will trigger most of the people in Iraq (or at least most of its Sunnis) to turn on us. (For that matter, two of the members of the IGC who have either resigned or are threatening to in response to our military actions in Fallujah are Shiites.)

Any attempt by us to pacify and civilize Iraq now will be incredibly expensive and time-consuming -- even more so than it would have been if the Cheney-Rumsfeld-Wolfowitz Demolition Company hadn't completely bungled its beginnings. We had better start seriously considering whether our best option -- out of a set of bad ones -- may be to simply pull our military forces out of non-Kurdish Iraq, while continuing to offer the country humanitarian and economic aid contingent on the behavior of its citizens. We have bigger fish to fry -- starting with Iran and its imminent Bomb.

Posted by: Bruce Moomaw on April 11, 2004 07:37 PM

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One thing nobody has commented on is Al'Sadr's use of the term "Mahdi Army" for his followers. Anyone who understands the meaning of the term Mahdi in Islamic theology would be getting a bit nervous right now. Take a look at my analysis of this on my site...

http://worldonfire.typepad.com/world_on_fire/

Posted by: rickfman on April 11, 2004 08:38 PM

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The US has left a power vacuum in Iraq. Can you imagine the streets of your city turned over to hoodlums and organized gangs who rob, loot, kill, rape and kidnap with impunity? What would you do? Would you band together with your neighbors to protect each other and your neighborhood? You bet!!! If a leader emerged that could organize groups similar to yours and make everyone safer, would you join? Would you support that leader? You bet!! If you lived in Iraq, you would be a supporter of Sadr!! The sooner the US figures out how to negotiate with Sadr and the forces of law and order, the sooner we can get our troops out of Iraq.

Not that I believe Sadr is a nice guy. Not that I agree with his religion or politics. He is competent. His followers are guarding businesses, directing traffic and trying to get things back to normal. That is something that is sorely lacking in Iraq and the US is not providing. The US never learned how to work with Iraqis that wanted to help stabilize their own communities. When faced with thugs and the worst criminals, it takes tough people and tough measures. No nice guy is going to be able to enforce law and order on the chaos in Iraq.

Posted by: bakho on April 11, 2004 10:07 PM

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Regardless of what happens next in Fallujah, the bigger questions remain. What is the objective (why is America in Iraq), and what is the exit strategy?

The American press corp is doing a horrible job of convincing anybody that this was the right thing to do and that there is a way out. The press seems to have stopped even asking the questions, maybe because there are no answers and the situation really is hopeless and unwinnable. Maybe it's not V, but it is Iraqnam.

Posted by: phil on April 11, 2004 10:13 PM

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We have lost 50 dead in the past week.
Mr. Bush claims the resistance is only a few thousand soldiers.
If a few thousand can inflict that many casualties, what would an expanded resistance inflict?

Either Mr Bush underestimates the size of the opposition.
Or he underestimates the extent of the damage they can do.

Posted by: bakho on April 11, 2004 11:16 PM

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Little did the PNAC suspect they were really creating the Project for a New Arab Caliphate

Posted by: Jon H on April 11, 2004 11:21 PM

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Officers are given information that is more nuanced than Enlisted Marines. Marines obey orders, so they can be trained and recruited for aggressiveness. Their officers are responsible for targeting and rules of engagement. Obviously the Marine in question had just had his pre-battle pep talk and was still excited. With proper discipline and training, that sort of gung-ho attitude doesn't result in war crimes, just victory.

Films show that the insurgents are hiding among the civilians and literally shoot from the hip when they fire. Marines wear uniforms and shoot using rifle sights to avoid civilian casualties. The insurgents are more anti-civilian than the Marine Corps. To argue the reverse is simply to be prejudiced against the US or the West in general.

The media, of course, just love the idea of a replay of Vietnam, and especially love to report the defeat of the US and the victory of the insurgents. The media are reporting a previous war. Remember how "Bogged down" the US forces were supposed to be on the way to Baghdad? Remember how "Brilliant" the first insurgents were supposed to be with their little white pickup trucks with a couple of RPGs in the back? Remember what happened to those situations?

The media wizards are trained in literature. The story of the victory of the brave underdog sells more movie tickets than a boring story of the inevitable victory of the larger force. Think of Star Wars, Hidalgo, Sea Biscuit. So the media write the drama like they're taught to.

This whole al-Sadr insurgency is a competition between al-Sadr and al-Sistani, not between the Shia and the Americans. The smart Shia are simply waiting until the Americans leave, or at least reduce their presence, before they make their move. After sovereignty is turned over al-Sistani will have a stronger hand. On the other hand, al-Sadr is just acting to objectively delay the handover of sovereignty and to keep up the numbers of US troops. Mistaking this for a general Shia uprising is to ignore the basic facts and to indulge in blatant spin-doctoring of the worst sort.

Posted by: Warren on April 12, 2004 12:17 AM

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"British soldiers have been much less confrontational than the Americans. Yet when you meet British soldiers in Britain itself they are very far from non-confrontational, always smashing up bars and hitting people."

Posted by: Cultured Dave on April 12, 2004 01:17 AM

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The U.S. needs to make an example of Falluja for other Iraqis insurgents to see. Falluja must be pacified.

How this happens is up to those murderers/terrorists firing weapons at the U.S. forces. If they insist on continuing this proscribed activity, they will eventually cease to exist. The Marines are pretty good at terminating all resistance (e.g., Iwo Jima, Okinawa, Hue City, etc).

Those illegal insurgents in Falluja will also wind up taking some (relatively) innocent people with them. But that's war. When you choose to fight from your front door, somebody in the kitchen will probably get hurt also.

Posted by: Lawrence on April 12, 2004 05:03 AM

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Lawrence has a lot of wisdom about counterinsurgency, doesn't he, folks?

The berserkers in the ranks and the exterminationists back home probably shouldn't be allowed in on the strategy sessions, I think. But with Bush you can't be sure they aren't.

Posted by: Zizka on April 12, 2004 07:54 AM

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Did anyone hear the comment by Chalabi on BBC World this morning that the U.S. had bungled post-war planning and ignored his warning that the Iraqis would not accept an "occupation" by Coalition forces? It was priceless.

Posted by: Hmmmm on April 12, 2004 10:31 AM

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America's appalling news media reported the killing of the four hired guns last week without the context.

The context was that in the same area of Fallujah the day before the locals had thrown stones at a passing Marine Corps convoy. After the convoy had passed the escorting weapons-carrying vehicles returned and shot up the crowd, hitting twenty people, two of them fatally.

The killings and mutilations of the four "civilian" gunmen the next day was an explicit mob retaliation for the initial Marine Corps atrocity -- but at least CNN has kept this from American viewers.

Posted by: David Lloyd-Jones on April 12, 2004 11:35 AM

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Oh, warren talking about "shooting from the hip" as the insurgents were shown demonstrating on CNN Sunday...by a "pro-war spinner", they (CNN) also kept showing the same old clip of the marine firing through his sights around a 90-degree corner of buiding standing up...that file footage is at least 5 weeks old, yet that is all they show...yes, the insurgents fire from the hip...and it has been reported that we dropped a 500 lb bomb already....so we fire from the hip a blazin' too, huh, as for Warren, just so you know CNN is edited to slanted to fire up the pro-war slant and keep out any negative stories...any pro-terror stories domestsically are drummed-up, while the nasty side of war is left out because a PG audience (America) cannot handle the facts.
Cnn has a slant to get Goergie boy re-elected. Please pay attention to the balance of cnn.com; and cnn TV...and you will see a remarkable pattern.
goodbye

Posted by: Dave S. on April 12, 2004 12:22 PM

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Send Lawyers, Guns and Money
Dad, get me out of this.

Posted by: George Bush (yet again) on April 12, 2004 01:13 PM

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"The ambulances were transporting weapons to the insurgents."

How the hell do YOU know?

It's very interesting. This is from a story in today's in the NY Times:

". . .American command spokesmen said that during the suspension of the offensive, the marines were firing only when fired upon. Those American accounts were disputed by reports from the city, by families fleeing the fighting, by aid groups delivering food and medical supplies across the siege lines, and by Arab-language television channels like Al Jazeera. Those versions said American forces began new attacks on Sunday that had caused civilian casualties, including an airstrike said to have killed 11 people and wounded 50."

We have the word of the "American command spokesman" on the one hand, and the word of everybody else on the other. Yet some Americans like Lawrence will insist that the US military version is the truth, no matter what the evidence. According to them, what the American public needs to when confronted with unpleasant facts about military behavior is "change the channel", as General Kimmitt advised.

If we follow Lawrence's advice we are headed for even worse disaster.

(The Times story, by the way, is by John Burns, Middle East Bureau chief, who is a supporter of the occupation).

Posted by: No Preference on April 12, 2004 01:54 PM

____

"Regardless of what happens next in Fallujah, the bigger questions remain. What is the objective (why is America in Iraq), and what is the exit strategy?"

I think it's pretty clear that the objective is to set up a puppet government run by Chalabi, giving him a cut of the oil revenue, and to do it with timing to help Bush's election.

You don't have to study the history of this war and the present situation very long to see this. All you have to do is competely ignore anything the Bush people SAY, and look only at what they DO. (Did you know that we are funding a private military for Chalabi, and that we gave him control of all of the Iraq secret police files?)

Posted by: Dave Johnson on April 12, 2004 02:55 PM

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"The media, of course, just love the idea of a replay of Vietnam, and especially love to report the defeat of the US and the victory of the insurgents."

WTF kind of a statement is this? We don't need to read people just transcribing Rush Limbaugh here.

Posted by: Dave Johnson on April 12, 2004 02:57 PM

____

It takes two to tangle. The following UPI report on the pro-dictator faction faction is a case in point.
Fallujah resistance vows to continue fight
By P. Mitchell Prothero
Published 4/12/2004 3:38 PM
View printer-friendly version


BAGHDAD, Iraq, April 12 (UPI) -- The young man did not want to leave Fallujah where he has been fighting American troops for a week. But as the oldest son, he was responsible for getting his mother and grandmother out of the besieged city and the current cease-fire offered the chance to get the family's women and children out of harms way and into a relative's home in west Baghdad.

It took the family five hours to cross what is normally a 35-mile trip down a modern highway east to Baghdad because they had to swing wide through the desert. Despite the cease-fire, they had to avoid U.S. military checkpoints because the Americans were not letting men of fighting age out of the city.

And Ahmed, not his real name, is a member of the Army of Mohammed, the Fallujah-based Sunni insurgent group doing battle with U.S. Marines in and around the restive city of about 200,000 people. The siege is a week old and came after the brutal killing and mutilation of four U.S. security contractors.

But Fallujah has always been a problem for U.S. troops and its been long understood that most of the resistance effort in and around Baghdad comes from the Army of Mohammed, which formed from a combination of former Baath Party members and military officials as well as Sunni religious followers who had a shared goal to rid Iraq of American forces.

Ahmed wears a gold silk dishdasha -- or traditional Arabic robe -- that belies the family's wealth. He claims to be unemployed, which might be true but between the garments and the comfortable house that his family has taken refuge in, it's clear that at least under the old regime this family did well.

Ahmed is only 21, his identically dressed younger brother looks five years younger, but both have been fighting the Americans since shortly after the war ended. Their eyes have a tired look more suited to old men, not near adolescents.

Before her son -- appointed as the spokesman for the family -- can even speak, his mother begins wailing. She has been watching her children and husband fight for months and the last week has been even more than she can bear. In the family's perception, the unconfirmed reports of hundreds of dead civilians are more than just reports. They represent neighbors, friends and family.

"Shit on Bush," she screams bordering on hysterical, the emotional release of having escaped the brutal urban fighting -- the worst since Iraq was invaded over a year ago. She and her children are safe now -- at least the four youngest that can bee seen. Her husband is still fighting and both her older sons will return later today to join him.

"Shit on Bush because he made this crisis," she continues. "What does he want? Why have these people come all the way from America to do this to us? Why is he doing it?"

"Did we knock on his door," she asks. "Bush comes and barges in to our house and we're not to fight?"

Ahmed hushes his mother and tells the story of the last week. After Sunday when U.S. forces cut Fallujah off from the rest of the world, the fighting came quickly and seemed to be everywhere.

"There is no place in Fallujah without a fight," he says. "The Americans have snuck snipers all over Fallujah and everyone can be hit anytime. We only can work at night, but during the day, they kill the civilians. I saw them shoot a family just for trying to run to a car to leave part of the fighting."

"Once they blocked the roads, they began throwing bombs anywhere in the city," the mother interrupts. "They came from the towns outside (Fallujah, which is surrounded by small farming towns populated by staunchly anti-American residents) where they had taken one after another, killing all of the towns."

While the coalition military statements deny any targeting of noncombatants, this family and virtually every person that has come out of the city during the siege says that the Americans were treating every resident as an insurgent out of revenge for the killings of the contractors.

"I have seen their snipers kill women and children," Ahmed says.

"The hospital is full of their bodies, all shot in the heart or the head," the mother adds. "The hospital isn't even a hospital, it is mosque where we treat the hurt and tend the dead," the mother adds.

When asked why he started fighting, Ahmed says it is his duty and a desire to return to the previous regime.

"If we didn't have the women, we would have never left. Even the children will fight. When it began, we formed the Army of Mohammed. We didn't care who the leader of Iraq would be, we just wanted the Americans out," he says. "We don't want the American's freedom, we don't want democracy. We prefer a dictator. Now we know what we lost when Saddam was gone. But the Americans said they wanted Saddam. They got Saddam, now why don't they leave?"

Sitting under a picture of the mosque in Mecca, the holiest site in Islam, Ahmed interrupts the conversation and points to the television, which is on Al-Jazeera, the Arabic news channel. On the screen is a montage of President George Bush with the leaders of various Arab leaders and with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

"All of them are Jews, spies and traitors," he rails. When asked which is which on the screen, he replies he was only talking about the leaders of the Arab countries, not Bush and Sharon.

He's angry that the other Arab countries have not come to the support of the insurgents. But there are foreign fighters in Fallujah from around the Muslim world, and Ahmed won't talk about them.

In another interview the previous day, a wounded fighter told United Press International about the role of the foreigners: He was wounded helping them and had to be evacuated to a friend's house in Baghdad.

Calling himself "Abu Freedom" or "Father of Freedom" -- a wry joke pointed at the Americans -- the 20-year old fighter was hit while trying to save two Syrians that had been fighting with his men, also in the Army of Mohammed.

Surrounded by 15 of his brothers in a house used as a safe house by the resistance, Abu Freedom is wounded in his torso and legs.

"We were sitting in a house waiting to be given an operation," he explains. "Then orders from our chief came that we had two Syrian Fedayeen fighters in a house, one wounded and one dead. We were sent to rescue them."

"Nearby the house, an American sniper was using (a) minaret of a mosque to shoot people," he says. "When the commanders issued the code word, someone killed the sniper, then it was my job to hit the minaret with my (rocket propelled grenade) so the Americans couldn't use it again."

"Nearby we found the Syrians," he continues. "The dead one, the Americans had desecrated his body. They cut off his hands, head and took his eyes out and left him in a bag. So we helped the wounded guy and took the bag with us to bury him."

"As we ran out of the house, someone said they saw a tank," he says. "I heard a tank and a boom and was injured. Two others I was with got wounded; two were dead."

When asked why he fought, Abu Freedom is clear.

"Because I hate the Americans and hate the invaders," he says. "I don't want to see Americans in charge of my country."

In the other house on Monday, Ahmed is more eloquent on how the fighting can end and peace can come to Iraq.

"God willing Bush will fall down by the hands of Fallujah," he says, combining military and political rhetoric. "If John Kerry wins the election and withdraws the Americans troops from Iraq, and maybe just leaves a few in bases, then we will not fight. But Bush we will always fight."


Copyright © 2001-2004 United Press International

Posted by: Ejetto on April 12, 2004 03:35 PM

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It worked in Vietnam.

Posted by: Al on April 12, 2004 05:31 PM

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I heard a US General quoted today that they were going to bring back some of the fired Baath party soldiers. That is long overdue. For $100 Billion we should be able to buy off every last insurgent. Why are we fighting?

Posted by: bakho on April 12, 2004 11:21 PM

____

It's interesting that so many readers seem to take the Telegraph story at face value (judging by the lack of commnents on it). The Brits think they know how to "win hearts and minds"? When did they ever exhibit this talent? In Northern Ireland? In the Falklands? Oh, yes....in Palestine, 1946? (Or perhaps flying over Dresden?) The Brit military presence reflects their military strength (weak), but for amusement at least they still know how to whine 'we could do it better' (if only they could do it at all.)

Posted by: Clarence on April 13, 2004 05:34 AM

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Clarence - you don't know what you are talking about.

The British do have majority support in Northern Ireland.

They have 100% support in the Falkland Islands (strange to say, the Argentinians did not liberate the area). I should declare an interest; my grandfather used to live there.

In Palestine (and also in Iraq) the British had achieved a peaceful settlement by 1939, with the end of the Arab revolt; they still had sufficient goodwill to keep going in 1946, but anti-imperial pressure from the USA and war weariness led to a premature pull out (if you don't believe me, do a google search to find the talk Sir Reginald Coupland gave to the Empire Club of Canada - it's worth comparing with US approaches down the ages).

So, yes - the British could do it better; a result of learning from experience. You really should study the works of the Beit Professors of Imperial History at Oxford, like Sir Lionel Curtis and Sir Reginald Coupland. That baton was offered to the USA but rejected. That is why the USA is finding out the hard way now.

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