Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

you might want to buy puts instead of shorting. it's a lot easier on the old ticker, just in case. VZ's implied vols don't look to be all that high.

mostly, though, you might want to be careful even jokingly posting anything on your web site that could possibly be construed as investment advice. yes, it's stupid that such a risk exists, but there's a reason things are so heavily footnoted these days.

Well yes, but then you'd need to short the entire telecom sector, because Sprint has the same problems. Haven't used TMobile's that much yet. And the voice mail at work was always, always holding messages from the Provost for a few hours to days to make sure I'd have to start the conversation with an embarrsing "Sorry it took so long to get back to you."

Sprint PCS totally has the same problems - happens to both my wife and I all the time to the extent that we were actually considering eating the early termination fee to switch to another carrier.

So... all the service providers have the same inability to handle messages. Coincidence? Are they all, perhaps, all using the same bug-ridden message-handling software? Or is there some hidden common disincentive to getting the system to work properly?

My take? Short Verizon. Short Verizon bigtime. What is the likely future of a company that cannot deliver phone messages in a timely fashion?

Judging by their history: continued expansion, massive profits, and the re-implementation of de-facto service monopolies. Short? My ass. Go very, very long. Failure is good! Failure works!

Sorry, it's hard to work in the tech industry and not turn into a seething mass of bitterness and hatred whenever Verizon is mentioned. I have, obviously, failed again in that.

Damnit, Brad, we can't even use <i> tags? Lame.

I thought it was just me that couldn't figure out why my voice-mail messages were so erratic. Is there really no way with Verizon to find out when someone has left me a voice-mail message? If my answering machine has a time stamp, why doesn't my cell phone?

Yo, _________; it's Brad; uhh, Brad DeLong. It's Tuesday, err, that's Tuesday the 13th, April 13th, at 11:00 a.m., oh yeah, PDT; that's Pacific Day . . . . Oh, forget it! I'll email you.

If you want to short a stock using anecdotal information, consider:

How new is your info? Is it widespread? Do lots and lots of people know about it?

If so, then its likely mostly reflected on the stock price already, given that markets are somewhat eventually kinda efficient.

Second, how does this info impact the company via-a-vis their competitors? Is this a strategic disadvanatge or is it merely reflect industry norms?

I could go on, but you get the point . . .

Long ago I called verizon and had them turn off voice messaging. It was so much easier just to go by the time stamp and phone number of the missed calls.

Basing investing decisions on one or two incidents with the company is not a very good idea. I hope nobody takes your advice.

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"My take? Short Verizon. Short Verizon bigtime."

A good way to lose your shirt, considering Verizon's local-loop monopoly. The company has a licence to print money, regardless of how its' customers may feel about the (lack of) quality of service.

"What is the likely future of a company that cannot deliver phone messages in a timely fashion?"

I'd say an exceedingly profitable one - just like the future of a certain software company in Redmond that can't ever manage to ship products on schedule, despite having $60 billion in cash and equivalents in the bank ...

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Fundamentals, Brad, fundamentals; voicemail is an add-on to the basic service.

They have the best coverage in the USA. I think they're probably going to be one of the last three cell services left standing in the USA. The other two will be whoever ends up owning ATT Wireless, because they have the second-best coverage, and Deutsche Telecom (T-Mobile), because they have the best GSM network, of great value to people who travel internationally. Or maybe DT will buy ATT wireless.

My list of noteworthy topics for business, economic, and political study in wireless telephony:

Several important facts: in 1980, the fully allocated cost of buried cable was about $5/foot; the fully allocated cost of aboveground cable $1/foot. Only two channels were allowed by the FCC when the analog networks were built; ATT Wireless owns the A channel and Verizon now owns the B channel. The number of digital networks was not regulated; there are five or six of them, of much more limited coverage.

My list of topics:
1. Estimate the costs of providing wireline and wireless service in the USA.
2. Explain the relation, if any, of those costs to consumer prices of those services.
3. Analyze the impact of government regulation of telephony on prices and capital investment.
4. Consider the political and economic possibilities of a socialist solution; a mixed co-operative wireless and wireline network built around internet protocols.

Must go now, almost out of time.

Oh, yes! If ATT Wireless trades as an independent organization, they're probably a good bet for stock whose value will rise.

Explain the relation, if any, of those costs to consumer prices of those services.