Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

Given Bremer's (Bremer's!) recent mea culpas to the Iraqi people, even he might be cringing right now.

It is clear what US Army and Marines will do in Fallujah. They will go in and kill everyone who resists. Sadly, there is no other choice. Bush is guilty of backing us to the wall and I personally would be happy to see him impeached for that. However right now the only thing that prevents Iraq from civil war is fear of US and British troops.

Arrrgggghhh! Why are we even pretending that there was discussion and nuance in all these decisions? The PNAC manifesto in the late 90's laid it all out and the fuckwads running this country in to the ditch are going to follow that insane plane to the ends of the earth. I'm bored to tears with the hangwringing about "Bush thought this" and "Perle argues that" bullshit; they had a plan and NOTHING, not anything on this earth, was going to stop them, short of getting booted out of office.

Today in USA Today: "Suicide attackers detonated explosive-laden boats near oil facilities in the Persian Gulf on Saturday, killing two U.S. Navy sailors in a new tactic against Iraq's vital oil industry"

New tactic? But it sounds like the 2002 war game where "the wily Saddam-like dictator, played by retired Marine Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper. He ruthlessly sent swarms of explosives-laden pleasure boats and old propeller planes on suicide attacks."

Is there anything that Bush didn't succeed in ignoring?

However right now the only thing that prevents Iraq from civil war is fear of US and British troops.

But *do* they fear our troops? Do we have enough troops in country to actually successfully impose our will, if it comes to that? Let them hate, so long as they fear only works if you actually can cow the enemy: and as places like Okinawa demonstrated, there are enemies sufficiently fanatical that your only choice is to literally kill each and every single last one of them. Which takes an awful lot of firepower and troops, and an awful lot of casulties on all sides.

We were fortunate that Iraqis were unwilling to die for Saddam. It is clear, however, that an awful lot of them are willing to die to avenge family members and clan members killed by US troops. Technically, we *could* "win" in Iraq the same way we won in Okinawa --literally killing every single combatant --but leaving aside the whole question of whether that actually helps make Americans safer, is a Grozny-style scorched-earth pyrric victory even possible with only 130,000 troops in the theatre, whose supply lines run past hundreds of miles of unfriendly territory? Imagine trying to fight against the Germans with the French Resistance targeting the trucks of the Red Ball express all the way from Normandy to the front lines and you approximate our potential problem here...

For a look at how the average Iraqi is likely to view our coming attacks on Fallujah and Najaf, see the NY Times' series of man-on-the-street interviews at http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/22/international/middleeast/22MOOD.html .

Also, from the latest Newsweek ( http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4825948/ ):

"Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told the House committee that military operations in Iraq are now costing about $4.7 billion a month—a sum that approaches the $5 billion a month (on average) that the Vietnam War cost, adjusted for inflation.

"Sen. John McCain says the Pentagon needs an additional division beyond the 20,000 men it is leaving in Iraq for 90-day extensions. Another senator and Vietnam vet, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, even suggested the nation might have to take a long-term look at reviving the draft. Few others went that far, but one knowledgeable Army officer points out that Rumsfeld's standing 'stop-loss' order —- basically a freeze on retirements —- is a 'silent draft.' It is not expected to be lifted 'for the foreseeable future,' the officer said."

Of course not -- because the moment he lifts it, there's going to be a stampede for the exits.

Mr. "a" is correct -- the descision has already been made to storm Fallujah. We are being prepped for the action with this nice story that Bush is being briefed and is agonizing about what to do. It practically has a bow on top. It makes me sick to think that the political arm of the WH is so craven as to trot this crap out in order to push up Bush's positives. The need to portray him as bold and decisive overrides every other consideration.

If there is any truth to this fiction about the briefing, what would happen if we did not storm Fallujah? It would not at all be in line with the image needed for reelection. "Bush thought it over and decided to give in to the insurgents." Not likely. I am not making a judgement about the proper action to take. Though I'm no expert it appears the marines have gone to great lengths to avoid house-to-house fighting and the massive civilian casualties that would result. The fact they are getting us ready for the destruction ahead is depressing.

I wonder... could you set up a market for WH spin along the lines of the terrorism market proposed by the pentagon? It could go like this -- you could buy against the Fallujah descision, or reconstruction contracts, or Scooter Libbey being indicted. Probably someone would offer a contract for American troop deaths and the whole thing would come to a screeching halt.

It is George Bush, is it not, who recited a line fed to him by someone about how the big problem in Vietnam was the politicians and not the generals making decisions?

My guess is that the generals know what a nightmare invading Fallujah is going to be, and they want Oval Office fingerprints all over such a decision.

This is a presidential decision if there ever was one. It is not a purely military decision. There are severe political consequences whichever way the decision goes.

So the guys in uniform have, quite correctly, bucked it up to the civilian leadership.

That's what "the buck stops here" means.

So the political calculation is that the blood-thirsty whackos in the red states need to see W as bold and decisive. What about the other 2/3's of the country? Destroying the city to save Bush's image has a real potential to be a double disaster -- in Iraq and the Islamic world and among the non-bloodthirsty non-whackos in the US.

The Administration's predictive capacity regarding all matters Iraqi has scored no successes so far--a failure that is frankly understandable, given that the Administration is peopled with thinkers who in 1988 projected a robust future for the Soviet Empire. What's amazing to me is that Bush is so very willing to go along with them, still. It's all about faith, indeed. The substance of things hoped for, evidence of things not seen, as strategy.

jam,
I agree with you. My point is the decision has already been made. Why else would an executive that is notorious for secrecy start blabbing about all the hard choices Bush is confronted with? Just now I noticed on CNN that the marines are going to try diplomacy one more time. It will most likely fail and Bush's hand will be forced, so to speak. The cynic in me knows its all a setup.

As we all know, it's not what you do, or when you decided to do it, but how you package it.

==============================================

Perfect World – Speeches We Wish They Had Made

President Bush’s Speech to the American People
on the Eve of the Second Invasion of Iraq

My Fellow Americans:

I am speaking to you tonight on a matter of grave import to our Nation.

Two years and six months ago, our country was attacked in a most grievous and cowardly manner by a motley crew of religious mercenaries under the leadership of the misguided son of a privileged-class Saudi family, Osama bin Laden. His name today is synonymous with radical fundamentalism and terrorist strikes against America.

In response to the devastating 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center, where so many of our fellow citizens died so tragically, America has conducted a military campaign aimed at the base of support for Osama bin Laden’s terrorist network in Afghanistan. Our righteous rage and anger was leveled on both the bin Laden terrorist network, and sadly, on the innocent civilian population of that desperately poor nation. We have run the bin Laden terrorist network to ground. It is only a matter of time before he will be captured and punished. It is only a matter of time before he passes from this world, and has to answer to his God, our God.

Like the Old Testament eye-for-an-eye, thousands of innocent Afghani’s have died during this campaign. Nothing can bring those tragically lost lives or shattered families back together again, and nothing can justify further acts of rage, anger and revenge on our part. This blood debt has been absolved. Therefore, tonight I am calling for a new war. A righteous global fight for freedom and liberty, based on Christian principles.

We are going to turn the other cheek. What is past, is past.

I call on all the nations of the world to refocus on the issues at hand. Injustice and greed in the world wreaks a horrible toll every day, a toll which we Americans have a duty to defend against. On the eve of this new fight for freedom, I have assembled the largest military force since the Viet Nam War. I am tasking our troops to go into the world, and to make right the evils of injustice and greed where ever they are found, to use America's premier strengths in the cause of good. I call on all nations to join in our cause.

Our first campaign in this fight will be to withdraw from Saudi Arabia, both physically and financially. Christian nations owe a favor to Islam not to defile their holy land. We will withdraw our troops, and close our Saudi bases. In like mind, the House of Saud owes a debt to us, not to defile the world with their support for unholy fundamentalism. We know the attack on our country was conceived and financed by Saudi’s from the elite and privileged classes. Accordingly, I am announcing tonight financial sanctions against the Saudi government, until reparations have been made to the families who lost loved ones at the World Trade Center, and until monies have been granted by the Saudi government to rebuild the World Trade Center as it was before. They have sown the seeds, and reaped the whirlwind, and now they must pay for their transgressions.

Our second campaign will be to withdraw our support for the Zionist fundamentalists in Israel under the leadership of former General Ariel Sharon. We cannot continue to support and aid an AntiChrist government at war with its own people, denying the rights of liberty and freedom from oppression to one group of their citizens on the basis of religion. This is unholy, it is evil, and America will not let apartheid and ethnic cleansing in any form stand, ever again.

Our continuing campaign will endeavor to free all oppressed peoples from tyrannical regimes and unholy civil wars. Where ever in the world tyranny thrives, they shall shake in fear. Where ever neighbor sets hand against neighbor, we shall bring peace. We will lift up the poor and downtrodden, we will make their lives whole, we will set their houses aright. As a great Christian nation, we can do no less. It may take some time, it may even take decades, but nothing can turn us aside, once we have set on our path.

This is a Great Crusade. I am calling on all Americans, on all the peoples of the world to fight terrorism in all forms, and to support America in our quest for freedom and liberty for everyone, all peoples of every nation. Tyrants and terrorists, your day has come to an end.

Thank you, and God bless America.

=============================================

Pray for the innocents in Falluja. Pray hard. Russia has her Chechnya, Israel has her Jenin, and now America has our Falluja massacre.

Rah, rah!!
Go team, fight, win!
Yea, rah, for the House of Bush!!!

The Bush Administration belongs in high school.

"Not by my Power,
But by your Faith alone,
Shall these Mountains be removed."

Old Testament saying attributed to God,
"mountains" being Hebrew for corrupt,
colonial, tyrant nations (like BushCo's).
And here who could've believed Armageddon
would be played out on prime time. Pray!

Have some of the commenters above been engaged in premature teeth-gnashing? Perhaps, as the papers now report an extension of the cease-fire in Fallujah and more efforts on the 'political track'. See the Times here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/25/international/middleeast/25CND-IRAQ.html?hp

and the Post here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40951-2004Apr25.html

But you never know.

That "deadline extension" strikes me as a desperate Hail Mary pass -- it's based entirely on the assumptions that (A) the insurgents won't shoot at us if we're accompanied on our rounds by their Iraqi Brothers; and (B) their Iraqi Brothers WILL shoot at any of them who either opens fire or refuses to turn in his weapons on demand. Both of these are decidedly doubtful. As for Najaf, the US has also announced that it's putting off its assault on that city until [to be determined], since al-Sadr's men are stuffing the city's mosques with their weapons and assaulting the mosques is a no-no for us. At this point -- as that NY Times article last night indicated -- the Bushites know they're hard up against it and are grabbing desperately at any short-term straws they can find.

This just in from the CBS website:

"And there was little guarantee that guerrillas in Fallujah won't attack joint U.S.-Iraqi patrols. Some Marine commanders said privately they had hoped to push on with an offensive deeper into the city and were concerned Marine patrols would become targets.

"The Iraqi security forces due to patrol with them were equally ill at ease.

" 'I don't feel safe because the Americans themselves are not safe,' Police Capt. Jassim Abed said. 'They get shot at. They can't guarantee safety for themselves, so how can they guarantee my safety?' "

Clearly we have stalwart champions by our sides. (As even George Will has noted, the trouble with the current Iraqi insurgency is that it is NOT a "civil war" -- if it was a civil war, there would be some Iraqis willing to shoot it out on our side.)

Hmmm. Bruce, do you share the Kurds assessment that they are not Iraqis?

The wild card is the polls. BushCo are master poll watchers, although they pretend to act without caring. In that regard, Bush is no different from Hitler, consulting astrologers.

If the polls tick upwards for Bush's handling of the war, then the ceasefire will be extended and the Iraqi people's lives will become even more miserable under the blockades, and things will totter along toward J-Day, when the US turns over Iraq to the IDC, and our kids in fighting uniform become mere unstrategized unlogisticized policemen in harm's way, begging for air strikes.

But if there is a bad skirmish, or successful bombing like the oil terminals almost were, if the IDC nominees start to flake or reneg, or if the political pundits read their tea leaves in
a different way next week, and the price of oil goes ballistic on the news, Bush won't have the slightest compunction against nuking Falluja and Najaf, reducing them to "glowing glass".

So if a pollster calls you up, tell them you love the job Bush is doing, and save a couple thousand more Iraqi civilians from cremation.

Why do the Iraqis, other Muslims, and the rest of the developing world have so much skepticism about the motives of the US? Read my analysis describing how the US shut down democratic movements in Iran and Algeria:

http://worldonfire.typepad.com/world_on_fire/2004/04/little_brown_de.html

"Hmmm. Bruce, do you share the Kurds' assessment that they are not Iraqis?"

Yep, Steve, I do. Which is an absolutely perfect lead-in for something I was about to recommend anyway: Peter W. Galbraith's NY Review of Books article ( www.nybooks.com/articles/17103 ), which is the best article I have ever seen on the Iraq problem by anyone, bar none -- and which recommends a modified version of the "partition Iraq" scheme that Leslie Gelb and I have both been pushing as the best way to pull as many of our chestnuts out of the fire as is possible at this point.

It's modified in the sense that it strongly recommends our trying to keep the three divided pieces of Iraq very loosely confederated -- in the way that Yugoslavia might well have been after Tito, if Milosevic hadn't deliberately wrecked it -- with a fair number of US troops still on hand to damp down border disputes between the three sides (especially at Kirkuk), to prevent wars with outsiders like Turkey and Iran, and MAYBE to go on trying to pacify Sunni Iraq by itself.

If you have any fond belief that the three factions can be prevented from going for each others' throats the instant we leave, and maybe before, see that very useful recent ABC poll of their political attitudes -- which are, to put it mildly, different: http://abcnews.go.com/images/pdf/949a2SunniShia.pdf

I see things a bit differently. Yes, Bush has staked re-election on the idea that he is a tough "war President", that he and A. Sharon don't take any crap from anybody. I think that he's hearing from military commanders that they need more people there on the ground before a full assault on Falluja and Najaf, because the numbers of Iraqi fighters could be very large. They are hoping to hang tough for a while because there's no way to get reinforcements there this week. However, their presence on the perimeter of Falluja will continue to provoke attacks from the insurgents and those attacks will likely grow.

Bush will never endorse partition of Iraq. While the invasion thrust came from the PNAC and not from simple oil thirst, most of the oil would go to the Kurds, a factor not present in Bosnia. My concern is Kerry. When will he get off the "Bush lite dime" When will he have the courage to say no to Sharon? Maybe when US deaths reach 1000, Kerry will accept the idea that it's too late for Vietnamization and Ananization. Bush can't back down and Kerry can't be elected unless he backs away from the Clinton all things to all people legacy.

Oh, man...
That Teri Anderson dribbling a 2nd duplicate e-mail post (see above), which proves that bible-toting do-gooders have proved through history the past 2000 years that it is the Christians who have more blood on their hands than any tribe in history - another war by the righteous to save the heathens. Was not slavery in America based on same principals- that African snagged to America were non-Christians and therefore consitututed for labor not enhancing for true Christian moral fibers...
so when Teri says: "Christian Nation" -
that is what he is really talking about
you wanted to get a rise out of someone, you did it

and saying Israel is a "antichrist" nation under Sharon- true he is no dove, but neither is Bush and Co.

So, if you were able to read foreign newspaper opinions- you would be able to note that America is also villified as a antichrist nation.
So, bible-belt thumpers-
You got your war now, too bad you cannot finish it the way you planned...did I say plan?

Teri, I always like when you people surface. I am glad you are against Bush, but wipe some blood off your hands first before you throw the 1st stone
and, also get a life
not a re-born one that gives you a holier than thou approach- the track record the past 2000 years is dismal and full of corruption.

save yourself and do not worry about us...Your Christian Nation has the highest murder rate of any civilized nation in history, what's your view on the murder rate in U.S.?
Maybe we need to go Islamic.

Have a nice day

Re: lack of good predictions from Bush's admin in Iraq.

Maybe they're due?

Actually, one piece of good news: our current wait-it-out strategy in dealing with al-Sadr may be bearing fruit, because his band of "thugs" (to quote Salam Pax) are irritating the hell out of the citizens of Najaf:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/iraqd?pid=1607

It's still possible that we can pull a fair number of our chestnuts out of the current (unnecessary) fire -- if we actually partition Iraq and don't proceed with our insane desire to keep it One Nation, Indivisible. I imagine Sunni Iraq is now a totally lost cause, however:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/02/24/iraq/main541815.shtml

The fact that the Falluja decision has been kicked upstairs to a president who nobody--either inside or outside the administration--seriously expects to make an informed, reasoned decision indicates that an impasse has been reached. It's probably between Peggy Noonan's "kill 'em all" faction and those who recognize that a bloody military assault on Falluja might toll the death knell for our occupation--but realize that backing down may achieve the same result. There are no good options--no evil that's demonstrably lesser than the other--but some decision has to be made.

It's eeny meeny meinie moe time, and who better to do that sort of mental heavy lifting than our prez? When the decision comes down from the White House, both factions will be expected to toe the line and defend the decision enthusiastically. A decision--probably compounding the errors of the last few weeks--will be made, but bureaucratic unity and a political united front will be preserved.

There IS still a way -- a goddamn obvious way -- to try to minimize our losses from this mess, Peter, and that's to follow the Leslie Gelb-Peter Galbraith strategy of Subdivide And Conquer. Our chances of being able to keep all of Iraq from exploding are now minimal -- but if we divide it into three mostly-autonomous states and concentrate on using our troops to prevent border clashes, we still might conceivably be able to retrieve a lot of the situation. We could end up with a peaceful, democratic and pro-American Kurdish Iraq (guarded by our troops from attack by either Sunni Iraq or Turkey), and a Shiite Iraq which -- while not very democratic, at least in the short run -- would at least be peaceful, stable, and a lot less embittered against the US than it will otherwise be. (Acceptance by them of a US presence on the border to shield them against attacks by Sunni Iraq might also give us considerable peaceful leverage to prevent them from engaging in funny games with Iran.)

One other important point: in such a partiotioned Iraq, that famous ABC poll of the political attitudes of Iraqis ( http://abcnews.go.com/images/pdf/949a2SunniShia.pdf ) may look a lot less depressing.

It showed only small fractions of both the Sunni and Shiite populations (15 and 26%) actually favoring Islamic dictatorship. A landslide majority of the Sunnis (50-35) favored a unified Iraq ruled by a dictator rather than democracy, but a huge number of them no doubt did so because they know damn well than any pan-Iraqi democracy will be Shiite-run and they're terrified of retribution. And a narrower plurality of Shiites (49-40) wanted a Shiite dictator over a unified Iraq rather than democracy, no doubt in many cases because they fear violent uncontrolled attacks by Sunnis in a non-dictatorial Iraq (and maybe, in some cases, becuse they're looking forward to the kind of retribution against the Sunnis that could be carried out only by a Shiite dictator). Partition Iraq into separate Sunni, Shiite (and Kurdish) regions, and the support for dicatorship within Sunni Iraq and Shiite Iraq may drop dramatically.

Wars tend to leave behind their signature phrases. "FUBAR" was WWII's, and "Numbah ten in boonies" typifies Vietnam.

"AOS, All Options Suck" will be Iraq's contribution to our vocabulary.

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The neo-conservatives that are currently in control of America today are the same personalities who gained control of Germany in the 1930's. They are wearing different skin suits, but they are projections of the same soul atoms as that which produced the Nazis of Hitler's Germany. You are seeing the formation of a Fascist America becoming a reality in the 21st century, the "Fourth Reich." The much debated "MABUS" of Nostradamus Century 8; Quatrain 70, in my view, means "Military Arm of Babel United States. Bush being the Commander in Chief of this organization is the personification of MABUS. I realize there are many other views to be sure.

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