Joshua Micah Marshall finds it hard to write about Iraq:
Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall: May 02, 2004 - May 08, 2004 Archives: One of the things I've found difficult about writing about Iraq in recent days is imputing some level of seriousness to the arguments of the president and his retainers who continue to press an optimistic view of what's happening in Iraq. From them, on any given day, you can still hear the argument that, notwithstanding some tough days, things are still getting better in Iraq and the key to success is sticking with it.
At the same time, I talk to, or have conversations related to me with, various foreign policy, intelligence and military experts, all of whom --- across the political spectrum --- seem to believe that things are about as bleak as they can be. On top of this, they seem uniform in the belief -- sometimes based on inference, other times based on direct knowledge -- that the White House is fresh out of ideas about what to do, and basically hasn't any idea how to proceed.
Why does Josh think it's his job to impute some level of seriousness to the arguments of George W. Bush and his retainers? Is there any reason that we should impute any level of seriousness at all to what they say?
Josh concludes, "No, there isn't. It just takes him a couple of paragraphs to get there:
Posted by DeLong at May 3, 2004 07:01 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this postEither the president knows the situation is that bad or he (and perhaps his advisors too) is just too out of touch to have any idea what's happening. Increasingly, I think that the president is just too small-minded and vainglorious a man to come to grips with the situation... a good president, would put his country before his pride and throw himself into saving the situation even if it meant admitting previous mistakes and ditching past policies and advisors.... I don't think this president has the character to do that.... [T]his president is just too far gone with misleading the public, covering up and indulging incompetence, and embracing venality....
Usually it takes many generations of careful inbreeding for a ruling class to produce a mentally enfeebled leader such as W.
The Bush's have achieved this end in only two generations.... started from poor start I guess.
A terrific post by Josh. I don't think he was trying to impute anything. I think Josh was trying to answer the question on a lot of people's minds--what the hell are these people thinking? In a way, it would be encouraging if they are just being deceptive and are aware that Iraq is a mess. Josh concluded what even some of the neocons are grudgingly coming to accept, that this administration is living in their own reality.
Posted by: cc on May 3, 2004 07:11 PMoops, mean to say started from poor stock.
Oh well.. maybe i can be preznit some day!
A great gift to an adversary is to underestimate him.
Posted by: jmail on May 3, 2004 07:16 PMBush is not underestimated. ALl we here from the right is what a strategeric genius he is.
The reason the public doesn't understand what an imbecile he is is because we have a supine press.
One of Josh's best posts. Well done to link to it Brad. It certainly is looking like how Josh lays it out, unfortunately.
D
>misleading the public, covering up and indulging incompetence, and embracing venality....
Repeat after me:
Rah Rah Oligarchy!
Down With Democracy!
Rah Rah Bush League!
Down With Democracy!
and off to war we go, we go.
Boom Boom Bomb.
There are two conflicting ideas here, that don't need to be mutually exclusive at all. One idea is that GWB is a horrible operational President with absolutely no clue or commitment to actually running things well. The other is that GWB is a vicious but savagely brilliant political operator.
Didn't you ever know anybody in highschool, somebody elected class President or head cheerleader, who was incredibly popular, cool, got all the breaks from the teachers, mean to the unpopular kids, and didn't have a single firing synapse in their skull when it came to their actual school work?
That is GWB. We elected the cool kid from Andover to be the most powerful man in the free world. And it shows.
Posted by: Oldman on May 3, 2004 07:49 PMAdmittedly, the decision to call off the dogs in Falloojah and bring back the Baathists has a let's try something different. The administration does not present it as a change in course.
As for Bush, he does not make his decisions based on logical thinking. If he did, then it might make sense for him to admit error and then try a new course. Mr. Bush decides based on revelation. If decisions are revealed, then each decision is independent and represents the proper course at the time.
In the Biblical sense, God could tell Abraham to sacrifice his son, Isaac, and Abraham would go about building the alter. A few minutes later, God called the whole thing off and Abraham sacrificed a goat instead.
Although the logical thinker might claim that Abraham had reversed course, in both cases, his actions were based on revelation. In both cases his actions were correct because it is what God told him to do. Abraham did not make a mistake or reverse course. Neither has Mr. Bush.
Posted by: bakho on May 3, 2004 07:52 PMMarky,
LOL! It sounds like eugenics in reverse, which is apallingly ironic given what I've read of the Bush family's history during the H-guy era...
Posted by: Tom Marney on May 3, 2004 08:03 PMIs there anyone reading this who would buy a big chunk of stock in a company run by W-bozo?
Posted by: Brian Boru on May 3, 2004 09:01 PMThere's just one thing about stupid Bush. He continues to do remarkably well in the polls in spite of all his mistakes. The plan seems rather simple and straightforward, tell the people what they want to hear: everything is fine and/or getting better, and it appears to be working rather well. Dumb like a fox, it seems...
Posted by: Dubblblind on May 3, 2004 09:13 PMA great gift to an adversary is to underestimate him.
But is it OK to misunderestimate him?
Posted by: Thersites on May 3, 2004 09:58 PMI am reminded of Pauls Krugman's editorial about the revision of scientific theory to accommodate political expediency of the Bush administration. When will facts begin to have an effect on policy? Surely there must be a name and DSM classification for this compulsion to proceed in the same direction, with the same behavior assuming that by willing a good end result, that result will happen. It's not just wishful thinking. It's more like psychotic behavior, perhaps ''partagé à trois - ou à quatre'' or some other number. Or maybe it will turn into collective psychosis.
Posted by: CSTAR on May 3, 2004 10:35 PMAssuming no diebold hijinks, the number of Bush votes 11/2 will be an excellent estimate of the number of terminally stupid people of voting age in this country.
Posted by: Troy on May 4, 2004 12:40 AMI've posted an analysis of the current Bush paralysis, and how it reflects some larger problems on the right. Conservatives have made the error of substituting argument for policy, and that hubris has landed us in the situation in which we find ourselves. Please take a look at:
http://worldonfire.typepad.com/world_on_fire/2004/05/argument_vs_pol.html
Posted by: rickfman on May 4, 2004 01:42 AMjmail - A great gift to an adversary is to underestimate him
That's what my fortune cookie said too! (last night/Pork Bun & Singapore Mai Fun)
Posted by: Butch DeLonger on May 4, 2004 03:39 AMbakho is on to something. Just because Bush won"t admit that a sharp change in course is underway doesn"t mean it isn"t. The initial decisions were mostly disastrous, and the time it took to correct them incomprehensible, but somewhere along the way, the decision was made to change direction. I still don't think there is a good option available, but at least there is some sign that US policy regarding Iraq is not on complete autopilot.
As to the optimistic statements about the outlook, I'm not sure that is much of a change from standard political practice. When loss of confidence is deadly to a policy or to a situation, one maintains a rosy outlook. Consider the behavior of Treasury Secretaries and Greenspan toward the US current account deficit. From a political perspective, this is also how you keep blood out of the domestic waters. So far, it seems to be working reasonably well. The worst president in US history is polling OK.
Posted by: K Harris on May 4, 2004 03:59 AMbakho -- the problem with your falloojah example is that was done by the Marines in the field and presented to the CPA and Washington at the same time as a press release made it known to the public. Falloojah is not an example of the Admin acting more reasonable.
It not in the steream of this post, but the policy of roating civilians in and out of the CPA
every 3 months out to be one of the worse administrative policies every created. I
had a friend there last summer who is a Fed
economist and a real expert on money and banking
who was helping to reestablish the banking and monetary system. Every significant decision he was associated with had to be approved by Washington and many of the decisions they overrode just did not make any sense to anyone with any knowledge of money & banking.
You should note George Will's column, with much the same content, in the Washington Post today, and Kagan's column in the same venue yesterday.
What's frustrating is that a president widely derided as callow and incompetent by thinking conservatives stands a good chance of being reelected.
Posted by: Matthew on May 4, 2004 05:57 AMYou should note George Will's column, with much the same content, in the Washington Post today, and Kagan's column in the same venue yesterday.
What's frustrating is that a president widely derided as callow and incompetent by thinking conservatives stands a good chance of being reelected.
Posted by: Matthew on May 4, 2004 05:57 AMspencer,
Do you think the Marines would cut a deal like that without WH approval from the very top? The Pentagon civilians may have been out of the loop, but the decision to back off must have had the approval of Mr. Bush. Generals routinely get cashiered for lesser contradictions of politicians. Supposedly, Bush gave the oversight of Iraq to Rice. Maybe she overruled Rummy and the NeoCons this time? Or maybe the Saudis brokered an arrangement? It is certainly in the Saudi interest to avoid a massacre in Falloojah that would inflame the street. Rummy is acting out of the loop. Who knows with this bunch? I guess we have to wait for Woodward's next book.
Posted by: bakho on May 4, 2004 06:39 AMHis base won't vote for him (or most of the GOP coat-tailers) if Bush admits to the administration's mistakes, and the rest of the world will no longer trust him long enough to follow him unless he owns up to those mistakes.
They can try and change course quietly but since the only solutions that have any chance of success involve a lot of worldwide cooperation nothing which allows real improvement is going to happen until next year, if then.
And by-the-way, owning up to the mistakes at this late date has become much more than announcing "Oops". Heads must roll, up to and especially Cheney's. It's way beyond his means to do the right thing, but Lugar, McCain, Scowcroft, maybe they could. Depends on how rotten the GOP establishment has become.
Posted by: dennisS on May 4, 2004 07:46 AM"As for Bush, he does not make his decisions based on logical thinking."
Speaking as you do, for logicians everywhere?
Posted by: Patrick R. Sullivan on May 4, 2004 07:54 AMI suspect that despite all of the "stay the course" talk, large-scale revisions are in train. Just don't be so naive that you expect to get the satisfaction of hearing Bush label it as such.
The acceptance of the Lakhdar Brahimi formula several weeks ago was one such revision. The insertion of an Iraqi commander into the Fallujah dynamic was another. The news today that the Administration is rethinking the January 2005 elections would be another (if it's true). Something is afoot; they wouldn't do these things without first agonizing over them. Let's see where this goes.
Posted by: Jim Harris on May 4, 2004 07:58 AMWhat I liked best about Marshall's post was that he used the word "vainglorious" to describe Bush.
Posted by: JackM on May 4, 2004 08:58 AMPatrick-
I am not the only one who think Bush does not base his decisions on logic. Presidential scholars are coming to the same consensus.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-bushbooks3may03,1,5710077.story?coll=la-headlines-nation
Posted by: bakho on May 4, 2004 12:07 PMJim,
"they wouldn't do these things without first agonizing over them".
Or else there are different POV and there is a switch from the Neocon/pentagon civilians to the militaryt/State Dept. Powell?
Posted by: bakho on May 4, 2004 12:13 PM"Speaking as you do, for logicians everywhere?"
Strictly speaking, most logical fallacies aren't errors of logic per se, but invalid generalizations or misplaced analogies particularly concerning causality, momentum, energy, pressure force etc. Other fallacies, for example ''ad-hominem'' inferences aren't misapplications of some rule of inference, but psychological ploys meant to discourage further argument. Some are even manifestations of psychological derangement, which in order for them to be effective, the arguer and interlocutor must be similarly deranged.
Posted by: CSTAR on May 4, 2004 12:36 PMThe US's oil-for-crisis row...
Posted by: El Gringo on May 4, 2004 12:46 PMIt seems we spend a lot of time trying to figure out if Bush is a liar or an imbecile. He is neither. Bush is an Evangelical Christian. His decisions and determination to "stay the course" are entirely consistant with his religious beliefs (which, unlike Cheney, he has made no attempt to hide). If Bush's belief is that God wanted him to be president to return morality to the world (I am paraphrasing him, but he has openly made statements to this effect) then it is entirely consistent for him to view setbacks in Iraq, the economy, etc not as evidence that his policies are failures but rather as tests of his and the American people's faith. We can point out all the evidence we want to show that his policies are failures, but ultimitely GWB believes faith is the source of truth, not the "empirical evidence".
Posted by: Mike on May 4, 2004 01:12 PMMike, what you're saying is that Bush -- like a great many other people who think of themselves as "religious" -- is actually a SELF-MADE imbecile. If so, he and Bin Laden have something in common after all.
Posted by: Bruce Moomaw on May 4, 2004 11:12 PMBy the way, am I the only contributor to this blog who sees Patrick as a Pekinese hysterically worrying the postman's pantleg?
Posted by: Bruce Moomaw on May 4, 2004 11:14 PMWell, I think he is an imbecile. But I think the endless speculation hides a desire to believe that it's possible he may come to his senses. He won't, because the basic foundation of how interprits events and what he considers facts is radically different from what I do, and I bet most people reading this blog do. George Bush is aware of how badly things are going in Iraq. But he is not going to wake up one day and decide that invading Iraq was a mistake or that his policies are wrong headed. In fact, he is more likely to interprit the problems we face as tests of faith and conclude that his only option is to stay the course. Because most Americans are religious, I believe we underestimate the nearly pure Biblical worldview Bush has. We assume that Bush's religion is similar to our own, which for most people means some kind of balance between faith and "objective evidence". It is not. Bush is Evangelical and that means that scripture must be interprited literally and he everything must be interprited through a strict adherence to biblical instructions.
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Think deeper about your statements. What recent president has been elected based on their qualifications, as opposed to what they "promised". Bush is not a born leader, but at least he was running a state government (successfully)--Both Kerry and Nader have no leadership experience. You don't have to lead to be a Senator, you only have to follow (party lines). Long gone are the days when people elected qualified presidents--today we vote in good talkers, some of whom don't screw things up as badly as others.
Do you even know what a president does? Presidents rarely ACT, they APPOINT. They visit, they are a figure head for providing direction. Congress ACTS and DOES. Every really analyzed Congress and it's actions. You'll find that with the Congress, so goes the nation.
Why are jobs getting outsourced? Because our education system is completely failing us. Congress' solution--spend more money. Don't think about improving it, just throw more money at it.
Why did we get attacked by terrorists? It wasn't because we blinked--it's because of over 20 years of bad foreign policy.
Why is the economy suffering? Remember we got attacked--that 9/11 thing? I'm sure you can read about it if you forgot already like most of America except for the name itself. It took a struggling economy (US economy began recession late in Clinton's presidency) and pushed the entire world into a recession. Most experts estimate it cost over a trillion dollars and near a million jobs.
FACTS YOU AREN'T REMEMBERING:
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- Decades of bad foreign policy is why we've been being attacked for decades (9/11 wasn't even the first on US soil)
- Clinton "defunded" foreign intelligence gathering.
That all said, I didn't vote for Bush, I voted for Cheney. He's more qualified than any recent president and is why the US is coming out of recession faster than any other country in the world.
Get a world perspective--it isn't Bush--the whole world was in recession. You seriously think Bush did all that?
Stop blaming and act, research, and think. Don't blame presidents, they react to the media. Don't blame the media, you're supporting them. Blame yourselves that you haven't really figured out what's going on here. People want power. They get that by polarizing people to feel extremes. As long as people are reacting on anger, they don't react rationally. Lines like "I'm voting for Kerry because he can beat Bush"--what if Hitler was running? No, it's not absurd.
Stop letting your opinion be handed to you--develop it. You'll find there is no good and bad, just better and worse. Kerry is not the answer. Nor is Bush. Nor is Nader. The answer is in the people doing the real work. Congress. As long as you remain polarized, we don't have a real democracy, we have majority rule--flawed by saying one thing and doing another. Until we have a third party of equal power, we won't have more than a handful of good politicians.
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