Yes!: Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's Webjournal

May 21, 2004

Yes!

For the first time since I got my Berkeley email account in June 1995, my inbox is empty. Yes! Yes!! YES!!!

Uh-oh...

Posted by DeLong at May 21, 2004 01:28 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post

Comments

Three options, and the best of them isn't good, eh?

Why I Almost Failed Econ 101:

If Fed Funds are at 1.00%, and inflation is running right around 2.00% (see graphic, front page of today's WSJ), isn't it by definition a deflationary environment?

Posted by: Ken Houghton on May 21, 2004 01:38 PM

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No, inflation is positive 2%; therefore it's slightly inflationary.

Posted by: Chris on May 21, 2004 02:04 PM

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Brad, that sure does sound like an invitation....

Posted by: PQuincy on May 21, 2004 02:05 PM

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My sympathies...as the only way I can imagine that actually happening is if you had a major server crash...

Posted by: Rich Gibson on May 21, 2004 02:11 PM

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I do not think I posted this here although I have elsewhere.

In a low inflation environment firms tend to raise prices once a year, typically at the start of the year.

Consequently, since 1990 the not seasonally adjusted (NSA) CPI has a very strong pattern that
just over half the annual increase in the NSA
core CPI occurs in the first quarter of the year.
Moreover, everytime but once if the 1st Q of this year is larger (smaller) than last year
the annual increase will be larger(smaller) than last year. The exception was within the margin of error.

In the 1st Q of 2004 the NSA Cpi -- excl food energy & tobacco -- was 1.3% as compared to 0.6%
in 2003. This last time the NSA core CPI was
1.3% in the 1st Q the annual rate ended up being
2.6% in 2001.

This analysis implies that the core CPI will be about 2.5% this year -- assume it is now running at a 2% to 3% rate.

The big part of the NSA CPI that shows up in the 3rd Q is tutition and home owners equivilent rent.

Posted by: spencer on May 21, 2004 02:23 PM

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I like the email as shown in movies, especially thrillers: empty inboxes, and only one email arrives. Cf. Michael Douglas's email screen in "Disclosure." VP of a hard-charging company, and he gets just one email.

Posted by: BayMike on May 21, 2004 02:24 PM

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Chris,

That would be what I would think, but if I invest at FF and then account for inflation, I end up with $0.99/$1.00 (well, actually $1.01/$1.02; that extra 0.000196 is worth something): so real income is declining.

Oh. Right. Never mind.

Posted by: Ken Houghton on May 21, 2004 02:35 PM

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Then Answer My Email! ;-)

Posted by: polo on May 21, 2004 02:44 PM

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Congratulations!!

A friend of mine who receives way too many work-related e-mails says that he deletes them all every few months. He figures that if it's important, the sender will follow up. (I haven't yet resorted to this technique myself.)

Posted by: Russil Wvong on May 21, 2004 02:55 PM

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OK, everybody, shall we all send Brad emails congratulating him on cleaning out his in-box?

Nah, too easy.

Posted by: RT on May 21, 2004 03:12 PM

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No news, good news..

Posted by: The Dude on May 21, 2004 03:27 PM

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Well, I tried to keep you filled, but I somehow couldn't find your address! And I looked - both sites.

I wanted some help from you : there was a discussion on an open forum about gas prices, and I posted 3 questions that no one could readily answer. I have since answered two, but let me ask here ( with review ):
1. Does USA oil reserves of 22-28 Billion barrels (2.1-2.7% of world's known reserves) include any of anything estimated to be in ANWR?
ANSWER : Nope. ANWR has 3-12 Billion guesstimated reserve, which could get us up to 4%!)
2. Does leftist " ... ANWR only ... 6 months supply ..." mean using it only, replacing some foreign, WHAT?
ANSWER : Assume a wildly optimistic 10Billion barrels all easy to get at. We use (2002 figures) 20 Million barrels a day, importing 11.9, make it 12 Million barrels a day : 60%.
20 Million into 10 Billion is all gone in 500 days. Less than a year and a half. Just replace imports, and it will augment our know own for 833 days.So, it ain't 6 months, unless they base that on there only being around 3.6 Billion barrels or so. That is possible, within the range of the estimates.
3. What will that oil cost? Is it a solution for twofifty gas? Or is it already twofiftyplus petrol?

Love to hear about question #3. I realize oil is fungible, and this inrush of artic oil would have to dilute the world's demand to affect prices, so what is the promise of this oil?
We need to defuse this issue if it's not a true solution. We need to expose lies and liars if that is a know fact.
Thank you
Richard W. Crews, American, Patriot, Liberal, Voter

Posted by: Richard W. Crews on May 21, 2004 04:55 PM

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Brad -- you don't have a gmail account? Then it doesn't matter whether your email is full or empty b/c you can simply search to find what you need. Well, that's the idea, anyway.

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