Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

"It's what would have already happened to any political leader in a parliamentary system."
Brad, with all due respect, to support this idea, you have to explain how, given that, arguably, Tony Blair is as "guilty" of the transgressions we ascribe to Bush -- and he is the "political leader in a parliamentary system" -- this hasn't happened to him as yet. If it doesn't happen on the other side of the pond, it's certainly not going to happen here.

Tony Blair is as "guilty" of the transgressions we ascribe to Bush -- and he is the "political leader in a parliamentary system" -- this hasn't happened to him as yet.

It's a bit different in the UK, though. The Labour majority contains many MPs who

a. Got their jobs thanks to the anti-Tory backlash in 97;
b. Like their jobs;
c. Fear that ridding themselves of Blair would aid the Tories.

And turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Were the Tories as strong as the Dems are now, and an election as near as it is in the US, there'd be much more motivation on the Labour benches to 'do a Thatcher' on Blair.

Right now, I suspect that even in the gerrymandered House, there's a feeling that many entrenched GOP congresscritters may actually have to fight hard for their jobs in November. (The generic congressional polling looks bad for Republicans in competitive districts.) So if we get the perfect storm before the convention, I wouldn't put it past the GOP to ask Bush to do a LBJ.

hard to forget my lai, and the state department negotiation that baited the attack of 9/11.

You sound like Yglesias and now Beinart at TNR, trying to be bipartisan where no bipartisanship is possible. Why? Because if there were grownup Republicans, they would have acted by now. They haven't, ergo they aren't.

Huh? You have an active fantasy life or is this a suggestion for some parallel universe?

What are you accomplishing with a post like this? You cannot be naive enough to believe that the House or Senate Republicans are going to do this; nobody's talking about it.

The current Republican psyche operates according to two axioms that make it impossible for them to do as Brad suggests:
1. Never admit fault.
2. Never show division in the face of a serious political challenge.

These, plus a smooth-running and highly disciplined propaganda arm, have brought them to the position of power they now enjoy. Hanging together is written deep into their DNA.

The only way they will be defeated is by pushing them all over the cliff at the same time. They seem quite willing to stick together as it happens. Or perhaps they just can't bring themselves to admit how precarious their collective position is (living in a right-wing echo chamber can twist one's view of reality). Assuming they don't manage to Diebold the results, they may be in for a shock in November.

Powell will never accept the Presidency. His wife won't let him. Apparently it has something to do with all the death threats he got last time a Powell presidential run was mooted.

So, basically, first you have to find some way to purge the country of whacko white male cracker extremists, and if you could do that, then I expect the grownup deficiency in the Republican party would more or less take care of itself.

Paging Howard Baker ! Paging Howrd Baker

The Grownup Republicans, the Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Great Pumpkin between them make up an irresistable force. And if you believe in them hard enough, they will save you.

How's this for a scenario? The reason McCain's campaigning for Bush is, ostensibly, because he wants to show he's a loyal party member and position himself to run in 2008. But the sub rosa reason is that there's just a chance (a long shot, but a chance) that the Bush-Cheney duo will resign before the election, the Republicans will be looking for a last-minute candidate that could win, and McCain would be that guy. Perhaps McCain and some other Republicans are secretly discussing this possibility. Certainly events of late have the odor of Watergate. . .it's only the speed that's still in question. The noose is closing around Cheney, Ashcroft, Rumsfield et al. . .will the hangperson arrive before or after November?

Why o why do people still think that Powell has any integrity left? While it may have been understandable to join the administration, to continue carrying the water after all of this time has irrevocably damaged any credibility he once may have had. Giving his U.N. show-and-tell instead of resigning was the defining moment for him. Once you climb into bed with these Bush sleazes, you never get clean again.

Smoking rope you are.

Powel is tainted and Bush will never resign in disgrace. A better scenario for the Republican Party would be for GOP Senators and Governors (the House has drunk the Bush kool-aid) to convince Bush and Cheney they can't win in November and to thus forgo nomination. IOW: LBJ the fool. McCain, Lugar, or Specter would make a better choice. If McCain ran he would stomp Kerry in the general election and this independently minded Democrat, who will likely vote Nader (in MA, where it won't matter), would gladly vote GOP (where it just might matter). --M

Mike Robinson writes:

"So, basically, first you have to find some way to purge the country of whacko white male cracker extremists..."

"Whacko white male cracker extremists" seems a bit redundant. I think the term cracker implies whiteness.

The problem is that at least 20%, and probably closer to 50% of the Republican base will NEVER vote for a black man. Ever.

Heck, most of them won't even vote for a darkly complected man of Indian extraction (see the LA governor's race).

Add that to the fact that a significant portion of the Black community sees Powell as an Oreo, Tom, or (as Harry Belafonte put it) a house "slave", and he is not electable.

Additionally, this would pretty much require that Michael Powell leave the FCC and stop pimping for Murdoch, etc.

Won't happen.

Hastert would never pass on the job, he'd take it immediately. Tom Delay would become Speaker of the House, and be way to close to the Presidency for anyone comfort.

As much as I dislike like Bush, I'd rather have him in office until Jan 05, than have Delay even reasonably close to that much power.

Maynard Gelinas:

"A better scenario for the Republican Party would be for GOP Senators and Governors (the House has drunk the Bush kool-aid) to convince Bush and Cheney they can't win in November and to thus forgo nomination. IOW: LBJ the fool. "

The way that I see it, the GOP Senators, Governors and Reps have their best re-election chances with Bush running. If Bush and Cheney did forgo the nomination, it'd be a confession of wrong-doing, clear enough even for many Republicans. The GOP would lose the swing vote and some of the GOP vote to the Democrats, and a large chunk of the GOP base would stay home and not vote.

If Bush/Cheney do run this fall, the worse that could likely happen is a presidential blow-out, the loss of some Senate seats, and no loss of House seats (due to re-districting).

Yes, it's about as unlikely to happen as the sun going nova, or -- perhaps even more unlikely -- the House bringing impeachment charges against Bush and Cheney. There aren't that many Grownup Republicans, and the few that remain have been pushed to the fringe of the party, with little real influence. (Just ask Jim Jeffords.)

But, nonetheless, it's what *should* happen.

The fly in the ointment, IMHO, is Hastert. He's a dud as Speaker. He seems to be letting DeLay exercise most of the power and influence that's traditionally been the Speaker's, and yet, even if Brad's dream came true, I don't think he'd pass on the opportunity to be President.

IMHO and therefore correctly, to understand Powell's motivation you have to recognize his deeply felt obligation to the GHW Bush who gave him his big career boosts in the 1980s. He values loyalty to an extraordinary degree and will never do anything to go against the Bushes.

Therefore anyone who thinks that Powell will have anything to do with forcing GWB out also believes in Grown Up Republicans.

'Powell as Prez' certainly catches your ( and apparently Powell's wife's) attention. A long shot? Certainly longer than the McCain shot as J Maynard points out. jimBob has my view of the sketch and Zizka too: The Grownup-Repubs are toothless and they stick together like s**t to a blanket.It's the only thing they know: loyalty -- even to this blanket.
Pretty sad.

Why bother, really ?

Great idea, but I find it incredible that a man of yr intelligence could still believe Colin Powell has any personal credibility left at all after 3+ years playing "Yassuh Boss, I'se comin' just as fast as I can" House Darkie to this band of subhuman white boys who, in a just world, would have had to ask permission to kiss the hem of his blood-stained robe.

We're all getting desperate these days.

Re Powell:

" He values loyalty to an extraordinary degree and will never do anything to go against the Bushes.

Therefore anyone who thinks that Powell will have anything to do with forcing GWB out also believes in Grown Up Republicans."

Posted by Eli Rabett at June 18, 2004 07:16 AM

By now, it's clear that loyalty to the GOP comes before loyalty to the USA, for Colin.

1) Grown-up Republicans are as rare as hens' teeth. Or at least, the ones with any influence are rare.

2) Dumping Bush as titular leader doesn't help Congressional Republicans, as very few of them are endangered by anything but the largest of swings against (say a 55-45 split in favor of Kerry).

3) As hard as it is for me to understand, many people like Bush, find him endearing, even inspiring. (Shit, he certainly embodies the American myth that anyone can become president.)

Therefore, even if the grown-ups found themselves in a position to take out the government, the likely scenario would be to pin the blame for four years of clusterf*cks on Cheney, Rumsfeld, et al. and replace that level of officials. You get the same effect as what Brad outlines--effective control of government--without the trauma of a Bush resignation. Hell, make Powell VP, as he has inexplicably kept his standing with the public even as he has been the second least effective Sec.State (after Christopher) in a generation.

Still, ain't gonna happen. In fact, it's probably better than even money that the current gang of thieves will win in November.

jlw,

"In fact, it's probably better than even money that the current gang of thieves will win in November."

You're taking that Iowa market at face value ? Systemic bias at its best. The right-leaning, free-market-solves-all enthusiasts are hardly where I would go for an accurate prediction of where today's polarized political environment is going... There is a point where pre-conception (political, in this case) prevents enough people of placing the winning bet.

Ch2 writes (about the Iowa market) "There is a point where pre-conception (political, in this case) prevents enough people of placing the winning bet."

Well, go make some money, then.

M. Bahner,
it's a form of betting, and I don't have the money for it.

I guess I'm underscoring my own point:
the people it attracts is why there's a systematic bias.

Colin Powell? After My Lai, Iran-Contra, the UN WMD speech, and Abu Gharib, no.

Plus he'd lose the cross-burners. Without them, the Republicans would have trouble electing Abraham Lincoln as County Clerk.

John McCain, now ...

"It's a form of betting,..."

Yes. So?

"...and I don't have the money for it."

If it's such a sure thing, you should borrow the money.

"I guess I'm underscoring my own point:
the people it attracts is why there's a systematic bias."

Nonsense. Even if you have demonstrated that it's biased in favor of people who like to bet, and have enough money to bet, you haven't demonstrated that it's biased ***in favor*** of Bush.

Professional gamblers don't have a betting bias in favor of their home team...or if they do, they don't stay in business very long.

Professional gamblers have a bias towards winning the ***bet***, not towards any particular team.

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