LA Times Electoral Vote Tracker.
Posted by DeLong at June 20, 2004 01:52 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this postScrew that. I want 538-0.
A successful "impeachment" would be just written off by the Republicans as just dirty politics against an honest guy. They should know, shoudn't they?
538-0 wouldn't shut them up, but it would go a long way.
Hey I can dream can't I?
Posted by: Alan on June 20, 2004 02:22 PMWow, the Nader numbers are bigger than I thought.
Posted by: Ralph Lee on June 20, 2004 03:10 PMBrilliant Brad
But this link gets one there faster
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
If you assume (reasonably, I think) that only 10% of voters NET are likely to change their minds by this point in the process (excluding a shock to the system--and I remain unconvinced that a terrorist attack that doesn't kill both Bush and Cheney convinces people to vote for the survivor),
then it's again not unreasonable to assume that any lead of more than 3% is "safe." (To take the ridiculous example, CO is shown as neutral, while Bush leads 49-40 with 7% undecided. Even shooting Nader wouldn't do any good.)
Correcting for that, it's Bush 212, Kerry 179, and only W's trailing by 3% in MI, OH, PA, NJ, and WV makes it worth discussing as a close election. The first three of those all show 9% undecided, ex-Nader, so flipping them would be less difficult than Kerry ever taking NC or KY.
Posted by: Ken Houghton on June 21, 2004 05:30 AMWHEN YOU COMPARE 2000 NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS, TO EVEN THINK THAT nEW jERSY MICHIGAN, AND WISCONSIN ARE EVEN IN PLAY FOR BUSH SHOULD GIVE CADAVEROUS KERRY THE WILLIES
Posted by: BILL on July 2, 2004 06:53 AMThis probably won't be read, but on the off chance that it is, let me say that the Democrats are in a better position when you start considering the Electoral College without the swing states. I can't remember who did a little report on this - I want to say Pew, but that could very well be wrong - but nevertheless, the Democrats have a slightly larger number of basic Electoral votes than the Republicans. The Republicans are dreaming if they think they are going to take California or New York - New York esspecially, considering Gore won that state by a bigger margin than Bush won Texas - and a lot of the other northeastern states without some huge landslide, like Reagan had in 1980 or 1984. The election this time, like last time, will come down to the Midwest, and to a lesser extent the Southwest. A few Southern states, like Louisiana, Tennessee, or Arkansas, might be in play, but pay attention to the Midwest and Southwest more than anything else.
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