Matthew Yglesias catches me in an error, and kindly and gently admonishes me:
matthew: No, No, No!: Brad DeLong warns Tyler Cowen against getting too outraged by George W. Bush absurd Cuba policy:
I should, however, point out that there is fine print: this kind of absurd, punitive, counterproductive, and stupid policy toward Cuba is not the exclusive province of this particular administration or this particular congress, but is the reflection of the structural strength of the anti-Castro lobby. Don't hope for things to become less stupid for a while, no matter who wins elections.
Six months ago that would have been right, but after a brief feint toward trying to out-absurd Bush on Cuba policy, John Kerry has seen the light. Listening to pollsters who tell him that younger generations of Cuban-Americans (see, e.g., me) do not favor absurd, punitive, counterproductive, and stupid policy toward Cuba, Kerry has come out against these latest moves, thus making his Cuba policy marginally less absurd, punitive, counterproductive, and stupid. From a short-term perspective, the Cuba policy implications of this election are probably not enormous, but there's a big "but" here. This is to say that if Kerry's strategy works, and he managed to become the first candidate since 1960 to win the state of Florida by advocating a less bad Cuba policy than his opponent, then the political power of the hideous CANF may be broken and the prospects for a rational policy will rise significantly.
I stand corrected. A victory for John Kerry this fall would be more likely than not to lead our policy toward Cuba to become marginally less, absurd, punitive, counterproductive, and stupid.
Posted by DeLong at July 2, 2004 07:51 AM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this postAdrian explains life:
http://pep.typepad.com/public_enquiry_project/2004/07/adrian_explains.html
Posted by: Adrian Spidle on July 2, 2004 08:16 AMIt's after 8:30ET on the first Friday of the month. Where is the brief review of the monthly jobs, in response to which we can all debate whether this, that or the other is the important thing to look at and whether the labor market is naughty or nice?
Job gain was 112k, vs expectations of 250k.
Factory jobs down 10k.
Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m, 2.0% y/y.
Workweek 33.6 hrs vs 33.8 in May.
Aggregate hours worked -0.6%.
Posted by: kharris on July 2, 2004 08:26 AM2nd Q hours worked up at 2% rate.
Still seeing no gain in real wages.
Economy is slowing -- question of how severly.
Data seemed strange in light of strong pop in June consumer confidence.
But on other side copper and aluminum prices bottomed in May and have retraced rougly half of their drop.
Are firms cutting hours worked to try to get rebound in productivity and margins?
Posted by: spencer on July 2, 2004 08:39 AMSpencer,
China has declared victory in cooling its economy. The latest reports are that it is taking oil out of African ports at a pretty rapid clip again. Similar things are being seen in other commodity markets. After cutting off credit to importers a while back, China seems to be a factor in the commodity price rise. I'd agree that growth is slowing - but it probably had to.
The one-month impression from the jobs data is certainly as you describe - a shift back toward conditions that point to better productivity gains. On the other hand, the past few months might just represent a bit of hiring catch-up by firms, in which case the contrast between June data and the prior months don't tell us much about underlying trends. June is just one month's data, after all.
Posted by: kharris on July 2, 2004 09:09 AMAdrian has explained the existence of our species, and KHarris and Spencer have explained how to interpret this morning's economic data--all in response to Brad's post about a prospective Kerry Cuba policy.
Well, it must be a Friday before a holiday.
Or maybe our network is acting up again.
Posted by: Jim Harris on July 2, 2004 09:32 AMJH-- you are clearly right on china & commodity mkts.
Also think part of commodity weakness was unwinding of carry trade. Many new players in this mkt.
Interesting thing is that oil stocks and other basics still leading stock mkt. Portfolio managers seems to still expect problems in oil mkt.
JH-- you are clearly right on china & commodity mkts.
Also think part of commodity weakness was unwinding of carry trade. Many new players in this mkt.
Interesting thing is that oil stocks and other basics still leading stock mkt. Portfolio managers seem to still expect problems in oil mkt.
JH-- you are clearly right on china & commodity mkts.
Also think part of commodity weakness was unwinding of carry trade. Many new players in this mkt.
Interesting thing is that oil stocks and other basics still leading stock mkt. Portfolio managers seem to still expect problems in oil mkt.
Love the way kharris and spencer (de or re)rail this one! ( Was this premeditated?)
Some day I too, will be able to just put the train where I want it.
Kudos for the 'Cuba tuba'
That's OK, Brad. I knew you would eventually stumble on the Kerry statement which seemed to coincide with (as well as mildly contradict) your "shrill" post. I figured you'd correct yourself eventually, but in blogworld everyone's an instant editor.
I've got to reiterate Jim; Adrian's post was interesting, but so amazingly off-topic as to be rude to post in this thread.
OTOH, I have to cut KHarris a little slack. I heard the employment news driving in, and my first thought was "I wonder what Brad DeLong will say about this?" Email might have been better, but I'm sure Brad is awash in emails as well.
So, on topic, I think that the argument that Kerry is going against the special interest on Cuba, and his winning despite this would undercut their political obstructionism more generally is an appealing argument, but small in the scheme of things (Cuban foreign policy is only a small bit of what the President does). What is more interesting is developing that argument more generally. If there is a vast scope of issues (perhaps many small ones) where Bush is simultaneously worse on policy than Kerry and worse because he is kowtowing to strong political forces that should be weakened, then breaking the strength of these many special forces by showing that they can be opposed and still defeated electorally, is a good reason to vote for Kerry.
7550 You can buy viagra from this site :http://www.ed.greatnow.com
Posted by: Viagra on August 7, 2004 03:10 PM1205 Why is Texas holdem so darn popular all the sudden?
http://www.texas-holdem.greatnow.com
2521 ok you can play online poker at this address : http://www.play-online-poker.greatnow.com
Posted by: online poker on August 10, 2004 08:35 AM5716 Get your online poker fix at http://www.onlinepoker-dot.com
Posted by: online poker on August 15, 2004 10:52 PM6764 black jack is hot hot hot! get your blackjack at http://www.blackjack-dot.com
Posted by: play blackjack on August 17, 2004 12:46 AM