Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004)

... depressed about the general state of human intelligence ...
~~~~~~

What intelligent person wouldn't be?

"The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter."
-- Winston Churchill

But it's all we've got, so we might as well try to make the most of it.

... depressed about the general state of human intelligence ...
~~~~~~

What intelligent person wouldn't be?

"The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter."
-- Winston Churchill

But it's all we've got, so we might as well try to make the most of it.

Took me about five minutes. Guess I can forget about that career as card-counter in Vegas...

I don't know whether this is as damning as it appears. There are a lot of ESP websites that don't cheat, but which use knowledge of human bias (such as that people usually choose "C" on a multiple-choice question) to get better than statistical accuracy. It's natural to assume that this is another such website. So I can easily understand how people might not look for cheating, given the starting assumption that it's a website that works based on knowledge of human bias. Also, the type of cheating the website uses is hard to catch unless you have a really good memory or use the back-button in your browser (which is what I did), it's not the kind of cheating that jumps out at you, so if you weren't looking for it, I can easily understand why you wouldn't see it.

This is the oldest trick in the book. I don't get why this is somehow indicative of poor human intellect. We scan our field of vision for the important details. We ignore the rest. Most people simply assume that the cards that are not remembered are the same.

We don't store visual information as a computer does. We don't scan it systematically. We actually see very little. Our brain fills in the rest of the details with what it thinks should be there.

This is the oldest trick in the book. I don't get why this is somehow indicative of poor human intellect. We scan our field of vision for the important details. We ignore the rest. Most people simply assume that the cards that are not remembered are the same.

We don't store visual information as a computer does. We don't scan it systematically. We actually see very little. Our brain fills in the rest of the details with what it thinks should be there.

This is the oldest trick in the book. I don't get why this is somehow indicative of poor human intellect. We scan our field of vision for the important details. We ignore the rest. Most people simply assume that the cards that are not remembered are the same.

We don't store visual information as a computer does. We don't scan it systematically. We actually see very little. Our brain fills in the rest of the details with what it thinks should be there.

No card on the first page appears on the second page.

This is the oldest trick in the book. I don't get why this is somehow indicative of poor human intellect. We scan our field of vision for the important details. We ignore the rest. Most people simply assume that the cards that are not remembered are the same.

We don't store visual information as a computer does. We don't scan it systematically. We actually see very little. Our brain fills in the rest of the details with what it thinks should be there.

The website is why I do fairly well at cards. But then if you get it then you don't really have to worry about esp- just pt barnum. I love the common folks, they let me live an above average lifestyle from some of their follies. But there are always smarter folks further up the foodchain. Tell your darling 11 year old that people get what they deserve- not what they want.

I think Pickover would be an excellent choice for the new Intelligence Czar.

I had to go back and forth about a dozen times to get the trick. It's pretty cool, actually.

The nine year old is some kind of swift--I will try it on my 14 year olds tonight.

I like Cliff Pickover, but The Mysterious Rabbit has been online since at least 1996, which is when I stumped (nearly) my entire office with it.

The trick would be far more impressive if the cards weren't computer generated and the selection actually limited to six cards. There are nightclub acts that would blow this joker away. Very cheap.

New experiment: which one of Scott Fanetti's redundant posts did Brad delete? ;-)

"The now Eleven-Year-Old is revisiting Clifford Pickover's ESP "Experiment" site, and is depressed about the general state of human intelligence..."

This is due to the indisputable fact that your 11-year old is a genius of world shaking proportions. You must be very proud.

Gosh - I wish I wuz cleverer (see what I mean!!???!!)

I don't think this is a good test for intelligence.

I figured it out as soon as I read the words "I removed your card" and saw the set of replacements. I only had to use the back button for confirmation.

And I am not a very smart person. I am an idiot. Lots of people are always telling me that, so it must be true.

It is rather depressing to read the comments of the many, many visitors to Pickover's site who actually believe he may be reading their minds via some ethereal connection through their computers. I'd say it is an indication that way too many people have trouble getting their intelligence in gear and figuring out a relatively simple gimmick. Sure, it can fool a person a time or two, but once you start looking for the trick it should not be rocket science to see what's happening. Did you see the comment by the couple who tried the "experiment" together and were stunned when both of the cards they chose were gone on the second screen. They were one small step away from realizing that all the cards go away and are replaced by different cards (all face cards to make the resemblance more compelling).

Of course, this just proves that some people are slow, and I guess we already knew that.

I think most of the commenters on that site are just playing along with the joke. Some of them are clearly not serious.

If it would cheer him/her up, you could explain selection effects, and how his/her depression is an invalid inference from a biased data source.

:-]

I was stumped for several tries but it took my 21-year-old son one try. These youngsters!

People want to believe. People take a confirmed prediction (no matter how weak) as (fairly firm) evidence for the phenomenon in question.

Hey, do you think someday the eleven-year-old or the thirteen(still?)-year-old would be willing to guest blog for you? I'd be interested to hear their take on the world - for example, a post giving advice to adults on how to interact with eleven and thirteen year olds...I expect "so, what are you going to do when you grow up" gets pretty old.

Also - with respect to this -
"The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter."

I had coworkers who were singing this tune a few years ago, with respect to certain Florida residents who, in their view, were perhaps not sufficiently politically astute to have their votes be worth counting. With the passage of time, it has become clear that said FLA residents had a much better grasp of political reality than the coworkers.

Hey, folks, it's a JOKE.

It is the 'explanations' on the site that are truly scary. A few are clearly intended ironically (the Cthulu one, say) but most seem both genuine and genuinely idiotic.

It took me 2 turns to figure out. So I am feeling good about myself. The explanations page is a complete riot. "You were wrong, once." is my favorite.

Reminds me of the phrase 'The problem with democracy, is everybody can vote'

djs: you're not playing by the rules - no fair !