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February 04, 2005

Iraqi Election results

The religious Shia do well:

The Washington Monthly: EARLY ELECTION RESULTS FROM IRAQ....The New York Times reports that early returns in the Iraq vote show that the UIA, the Shiite slate dominated by religious groups, has won 72% of the vote so far, compared to 18% for Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's more secular Shiite coalition.

These results aren't meaningful on a broad basis because they come from strongly Shiite precincts. When the full vote is counted the Kurds will have a larger share than they do now, and possibly the Sunnis as well. Still, the religious slate so far has won 80% of the Shiite vote. If that holds, and if Shiites win 70% of the overall vote, it means that the UIA will win about 56% of the total vote. If the Kurdish slate wins 23% of the vote (as I estimated here), a UIA/Kurd alliance would have a comfortable two-thirds majority all by itself and have no need for any further coalition....

Posted by DeLong at February 4, 2005 01:16 PM