Go back to your basic question about Bush, has he ever failed to screw up anything he touched?

I originally believed that our invasion would lead to Iraq and Iran allied and a great threat to Saudi Arabia and US oil supplies.

Still have seen no reason to change that expectation.

What US oil supplies? We are broke. We can't afford to buy the oil we are burning now!

spencer, i've said all along that the winner in iraq was iran, and the article the prof posts helps (as you suggest) reinforce that expectation....

"These results aren't meaningful on a broad basis ..."

In fact we don't know anything real about turnout or results yet. Brad, you could be a bit more skeptical, given that reliable information about anything in Iraq is a scarce commodity, and usually comes out months and months late.

Yep, the Shiites (or, more precisely, Sistani and his fellow clerics) seem to have won a great victory. Unfortunately, they have just announced that they intend to respond to it by imposing Sharia on all Iraq: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/06/international/middleeast/06shiites.html?hp&ex=1107752400&en=9d100332d7bb408b&ei=5094&partner=homepage . In short, we have just seen a classic triumph of Illiberal Democracy. Still, look on the bright side. Maybe the Shiites and the Sunnis can find common purpose after all in oppressing the Kurds.

"Maybe the Shiites and the Sunnis can find common purpose after all in oppressing the Kurds."

Them and what army?

"UIA/Kurd alliance would have a comfortable two-thirds majority all by itself and have no need for any further coalition.... "

Not so.

The interim constitution provides that the proposed permanent constitution can be vetoed by any three provinces in each of which a majority votes against it. This provision was insisted on by the US in order to give Kurds, who form a majority in three provinces, the power of veto.

However, while it did not occur to people at the time, the Sunnis also form a majority in three provinces, so they too have potential veto power and a UIA/Kurd alliance can do nothing about this. The Sunnis need to be part of the process.

That's a year away. A lot will happen in a year.

We don't know who will be voting next year. We don't know who will be living in which province next year. We don't even know who will be alive next year.

guns

I hope our troops get home before the Iraq's find out that Noah Feldman,a Jewish American university professor, is the chef architect of there future constitution. Kind of like Geronimo having Gen Custer as his defense attorney

Elections in Iraq are better than no elections but the fact that there were restrictions on age (candidates below 30 were not eligible), sex (every third candidate had to be a woman) and political affiliation (senior members of the old Baathist party could not stand) does not really make these elections truly democratic!
Moreover, if what you end up with is rule of the shariah( what Ali Sistani has now promised) then the whole purpose of the US going into iraq, will be defeated.

What we should all keep in mind is, these elections are just to see who gets into the Parliment, and in No way does this mean anything, other than its on paper.

Remember ww1 after the nations that had been defeated and occupied held elections. what came out of it is in the history books. even in Africa today and Southeastern Asia.
Iranian intervention seems likely since the Shiites are closely tied with Iran's Shiites. Lets hope this doesnt go awry. And lets hope No confrontations come out of this.