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February 19, 2005

The Distribution of Political Power in the Future Iraq

Juan Cole reports:

Informed Comment : Gilbert Achcar kindly shares his translation of a recent article in al-Hayat:

Amer al-Husseini, a leader of al-Sadr's Current... the Current 'supports the designation of Ibrahim al-Jaafari to the post of Prime minister.'... Al-Husseini revealed that contacts were being held between the Coalition [the Unified Iraqi Coalition, backed by al-Sistani and the winner of the majority of seats in the Assembly] and the leadership of al-Sadr's Current in al-Najaf.... Al-Hayat has also learned that a security plan, which was mentioned earlier for the case where the Coalition would lead the new government, foresees the integration of large numbers of 'Al-Badr' and 'Al-Mahdi Army,' as well as the militias of Hizbullah and Al-Dawa, in the ranks of the new Iraqi army...

Posted by DeLong at February 19, 2005 09:25 AM

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Well at least that means that Ahmed Chalabi is out again. Also tends to suggest that Moqtada will not declare Jihad on the al Jafaari govt. Got to look on the bright side.

Posted by: robert Waldmann at February 19, 2005 09:37 AM

"foresees the integration of large numbers of 'Al-Badr' and 'Al-Mahdi Army,' as well as the militias of Hizbullah and Al-Dawa, in the ranks of the new Iraqi army... "

I have been waiting for this shoe to drop. Despite the uneven performance of the current Iraqi police and military, there are in fact tens of thousands of trained Iraqis fully prepared to handle security, unfortunately for Donnie Rumsfield they were trained by Iran.

It is a miracle that al-Sistani was able to keep these guys off the streets in the face of extreme provocation until he got his election. But now all bets are off, it just got a lot harder to be a Sunni insurgent anywhere South of Baghdad.

[Not a miracle. A testimony to the *remarkable* political maturity of the Shiite leadership in Iraq.]

Posted by: Bruce Webb at February 19, 2005 10:57 AM

Some articles this week in the "Socialist Worker" about the horrors of Fallujah, americans are quite disgraceful, rampaging around in other peoples' countries.

Posted by: eric bloodaxe at February 19, 2005 11:01 AM

Intel-dump.com cite a WSJ aricle last wek on the emeging private armies in Iraq -- very interesting reading.

Posted by: spencer at February 19, 2005 12:15 PM

Uh oh.

And who are these units loyal to ?

The Iraqi state, or someone else ?

This might become important if, I dunno, someone is ever planning a coup at some point.

Or even if you try to fold them into the official military, and want to change the commander of a unit.

Ian Whitchurch

Posted by: Ian Whitchurch at February 20, 2005 12:50 AM

[comment spam]

Posted by: at February 21, 2005 06:29 PM

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