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March 11, 2005
And This Is Too Bad...
Because there are some very good people at the Cato Institute: Ted Galen Carpenter and Justin Logan are two of them:
Taiwan News Online: ince the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the United States has been legally obligated to sell Taiwan 'arms of a defensive character' in order to help deter the PRC from attempting to retake the island by force. In 2001, the Bush administration offered Taiwan an arms sale of roughly US$20 billion to counter a campaign of Chinese military modernization aimed directly at retaking Taiwan. Recently, a version of that package, scaled back to US$18.2 billion, was approved by Taiwan's cabinet, but remains held up in the Legislature.
Opponents of the arms sales package lament that the weapons are too expensive, and that the island has other priorities.... Taiwan's lack of seriousness is unacceptable because it has the effect of pushing the United States to the forefront of the cross-strait conflict.... One apparent factor in Taiwan's irresponsibility is that it is banking on a U.S. security guarantee. However, Taiwanese legislators (and more than a few U.S. officials) would do well to take another look at the Taiwan Relations Act, which some allege commits the United States to defend Taiwan's autonomy.
The act merely asserts that 'efforts to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, would be a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.'... [I]t is possible that the United States could decide to involve itself in a conflict between Taiwan and China. That decision would be ill-advised in its own right, given the potential dangers, but it certainly should not be left to Taiwan's government to force such a momentous decision....
The United States should continue, under the obligation of the Taiwan Relations Act, to sell Taiwan defensive arms with which it can deter a Chinese attack. However, at the same time, Washington should indicate to Taiwan that it does not intend to involve itself in a war in the Taiwan Strait. As things stand now, the Taiwanese increasingly expect that the United States will defend them, and the Chinese increasingly suspect that it will not. That is the worst of both worlds, and portends a perilous situation for all parties involved.
I'm not sure I agree with them, however. It seems to me that it would be a very good idea for the U.S. to establish as a founding principle of twenty-first century international law that there will be no net loss of democracy: that changes in the status of Taiwan vis-a-vis China need to be approved by popular vote, and that any alternative makes it less rather than more likely that Taiwan will be a part of China in the long run. The right model seems to be the EU-accession model: China and Taiwan will negotiate changes in status when China has a polity and an economy attractive enough to make closer links seem a no-brainer.
Posted by DeLong at March 11, 2005 11:52 AM
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Comments
Tangentially to the topic, the issue of what "arms of a defensive character" actually are is especially difficult in this case. The phrase originates from the early-30s World Disarmament Conference (everyone agreed that arms of a defensive character were allowable, but unsurprisingly they all thought their own weapons were strictly defensive unlike everyone else's). It's used in various ways; in that case it was supposedly anything you couldn't invade your neighbours with. In the case of UN peacekeepers under Chapter VI (non-shoot first) mandates, it usually meant nothing more deadly than small arms until post-Bosnia/Rwanda rethinking.
Here, presumably, it means arms suitable for sinking Chinese landing ships and shooting down Chinese bombers. But it's exactly some of those that have seen a considerable shift in purpose in the last few years. AWACS, for example, went from being a component of integrated air defence to a key component of offensive air power; the RAF calls the chaps down the back "weapons controllers", and the team can include people with strike aircraft or Tactical C130 experience as well as Fighter Control personnel. They would be as usable to coordinate Taiwanese air raids over Shanghai as to vector Taiwanese fighters in the Straits onto the Sukhoi 24s, so...it's a silly phrase
Posted by: Alex at March 13, 2005 05:13 AM