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March 23, 2005

We Will Make an Economist of Him Yet

The sharp-eyed Matthew Yglesias:

Last year the Trustees said that "Expressed in relation to the projected gross domestic product (GDP), OASDI cost is estimated to rise from the current level of 4.3 percent of GDP, to 6.3 percent in 2030, and to 6.6 percent in 2078." This year things have gotten better, not worse. "Expressed in relation to the projected gross domestic product (GDP), OASDI cost is estimated to rise from the current level of 4.3 percent of GDP, to 6.1 percent in 2030, and to 6.4 percent in 2079."

So why is the administration saying that Social Security projections have gotten worse? He puts his finger on it:

Apparently, the Trustees have changed their mind about what proportion of the overall economy in the future will come in the form of tax[able] payroll.

Posted by DeLong at March 23, 2005 01:13 PM