December 06, 2004
The Destabilization of Saudi Arabia
The appalling thing is that an organization as weak as Al Qaeda can have won so many strategic victories against us over the past five years:
Global Guerrillas: JOURNAL: "Shaping" the Battlefield in Saudi Arabia: The heavily fortified US consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia was attacked on December 6th, 2004. At least four Saudi Security guards were killed and several US staff members were injured. Three of the attackers were killed and two captured. In response, the US embassy and consulates were closed for the day. The US has already sent home non-essential staff and has urged all American workers to leave the country.
s anticipated by this author, the global guerrilla campaign in Saudi Arabia has begun. The insurgent "chatter" in the country has been at a minimum since this summer, which presaged new violence this winter (and not that the Saudi counter-terrorist operations were successful). The attack on the US consulate is part of a psychological "shaping" operation by global guerrilla groups in the country. It is important for the guerrillas to frame this conflict in terms of a war against the US and the Saudi Royal family (the "apostate kleptocrats").
Posted by DeLong at December 6, 2004 12:36 PM
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For the past seventy-odd years, guerilla movements of one sort or another have fared remarkably well against larger conventional armies.
The so-called War on Terror is best understood as a concerted effort by conventional armies to put an end to this guerilla nonsense once and for all.
The correct strategy against Al Qaeda should have been to isolate them. They were a fringe element within the Muslim world. The objective should have been to turn the rest of the Muslims against them.
Instead, by invading Iraq and supporting Israel, the United States has turned the Muslim world against it. All one billion of them.
Even if bin Laden is captured or killed, he will be a martyr.
Posted by: analyst at December 6, 2004 09:26 PM
With respect to shaping the confict:
Is this why there have been no attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, as far as we know? When does that start to occur?
Posted by: dilbert dogbert at December 7, 2004 11:01 AM