September 04, 2002
The Cyclically-Adjusted Deficit

John Irons find and links to the Congressional Budget Office's estimates of the deficit adjusted for the state of the business cycle:


ArgMax Blog: The Cyclically Adjusted Deficit: ..."By those measures, roughly one-third of the projected decline in the total surplus between 2000 and 2003 results from "automatic stabilizers" the automatic response of the budget to the business cycle. Most of the remaining two-thirds is attributable to legislative action: primarily EGTRRA [2001 tax cuts], JCWAA, and increases in discretionary spending (including emergency appropriations enacted in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11)."...

Posted by DeLong at September 04, 2002 05:11 PM | Trackback

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What would you expect from an Administration whose boss has campained on allowing retirees to investing a large share of their social security wealth on the stock market. That was a brilliant idea... I haven't heard of it for a while.

The money W is throwing out of the window is the money baby-boomers won't have as retirement income from Social Security. And knowing baby-boomers, they won't accept to eat cake instead - except if it's organic cake from the poshest bakery in town, of course - and I am going to have to bankroll horendous amounts of income taxes to support them, with no guarentee of receiving a decent pension myself.

For a change, I even have some financial advice. The closer we get to Social Security brancruptcy, the more people with money in private pension plans should think of moving this money off-shore. Because when the going will get rough it won't take long to politicians to suggest to make transfers between wealthy and poor retirees... to soothe the anger of people like me for example :)

Posted by: Jean-Philippe Stijns on September 5, 2002 06:51 PM

Please do read Paul Krugman on Social Security. There is a "surplus" in the social security account that should take us at least 30 more years with full benefits. Claims that social security will soon be bankrupt are absurd nonsense, playing to those who wish to destroy a wonderful benefit for million and millions of Americans. Social security is fine and will continue to be fine if we can keep from allowing the system to be transformed to a set of private accounts.

There is danger in a growing general government deficit, but the social security account IS in surplus.

Posted by: on September 6, 2002 09:28 AM
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