"Decoherence" is a word from modern physics. It refers to a situation in which a superposition quantum wave function breaks into separate and mutually exclusive components: either A or B, but not both.
Alan Greenspan has been trying to maintain a superposition on fiscal policy, but today it broke down, and became decoherent. He tried to argue both that (a) the Bush tax cut was a good idea, and (b) the Congress really, really needs to strengthen its controls because the country really, really needs a substantial budget surplus. It doesn't work. The position simply doesn't cohere:
Greenspan Backs Budget Control and the Tax Cuts: ...The message of the Fed chairman's prepared testimony was that a breakdown of budget discipline over both taxes and spending would lead to higher interest rates and slower economic growth in the long run. Yet in the question-and-answer session, Mr. Greenspan seemed to align himself philosophically with Republicans — and anger Democrats — over how to address the nation's fiscal troubles.
In response to some questions, Mr. Greenspan said the specifics of dealing with the situation were up to Congress, and he urged the House and Senate to extend budget rules, adopted a decade ago with bipartisan support, that theoretically bar tax cuts and spending increases that are not offset elsewhere in the budget.
But at other points he placed himself in the camp of small-government low-tax conservatives. He suggested that increases in domestic spending be tightly limited, that there were long-term economic justifications for additional tax cuts and that it was too late to undo last year's tax cut, even though much of it is not scheduled to take effect for years.
Many Democrats have felt betrayed by Mr. Greenspan for having given Mr. Bush's tax cut a qualified endorsement early last year, undermining the Democratic argument that the tax cut was fiscally reckless.
With Democratic warnings that the tax cut could lead to renewed budget deficits having come to pass — in part as well because of the recession and the costs of fighting terrorism — Democrats have been trying to turn Mr. Greenspan's influence to their advantage by emphasizing his demands for fiscal discipline.
Up to a point, Mr. Greenspan gave Democrats what they wanted. He said he still supported an idea he floated last year, to allow tax cuts and spending increases to take effect only if the budget surplus projections that they were based on proved to be on track. Many Democrats have been making a case that a "trigger" of the sort proposed by Mr. Greenspan would justify canceling or postponing provisions in Mr. Bush's tax cut that have not yet taken effect, including the complete repeal of the estate tax in 2010.
But when asked specifically by Representative Ken Bentsen, Democrat of Texas, whether he would support delaying the scheduled tax cuts by applying the trigger concept to them, Mr. Greenspan said no...
ASHINGTON, Sept. 12 — Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, warned today that the economy would suffer if Congress failed to keep the federal budget deficit under control. But he advised against Democratic efforts to replenish the government's coffers by rolling back or delaying the $1.3 trillion tax cut signed into law last year by President Bush.
Appearing before the House Budget Committee, Mr. Greenspan said little about the current condition of the economy, disappointing investors, who had hoped for signals of optimism. Stocks closed lower, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling more than 201 points to 8,379.41, as the market was also hurt by concern about war with Iraq and new indicators of economic sluggishness.
Instead of providing clues to Fed interest rate policy, Mr. Greenspan injected himself into the partisan debate over the reasons behind the rapid swing from budget surpluses to deficits.
The message of the Fed chairman's prepared testimony was that a breakdown of budget discipline over both taxes and spending would lead to higher interest rates and slower economic growth in the long run. Yet in the question-and-answer session, Mr. Greenspan seemed to align himself philosophically with Republicans — and anger Democrats — over how to address the nation's fiscal troubles.
In response to some questions, Mr. Greenspan said the specifics of dealing with the situation were up to Congress, and he urged the House and Senate to extend budget rules, adopted a decade ago with bipartisan support, that theoretically bar tax cuts and spending increases that are not offset elsewhere in the budget.
But at other points he placed himself in the camp of small-government low-tax conservatives. He suggested that increases in domestic spending be tightly limited, that there were long-term economic justifications for additional tax cuts and that it was too late to undo last year's tax cut, even though much of it is not scheduled to take effect for years.
Many Democrats have felt betrayed by Mr. Greenspan for having given Mr. Bush's tax cut a qualified endorsement early last year, undermining the Democratic argument that the tax cut was fiscally reckless.
With Democratic warnings that the tax cut could lead to renewed budget deficits having come to pass — in part as well because of the recession and the costs of fighting terrorism — Democrats have been trying to turn Mr. Greenspan's influence to their advantage by emphasizing his demands for fiscal discipline.
Up to a point, Mr. Greenspan gave Democrats what they wanted. He said he still supported an idea he floated last year, to allow tax cuts and spending increases to take effect only if the budget surplus projections that they were based on proved to be on track. Many Democrats have been making a case that a "trigger" of the sort proposed by Mr. Greenspan would justify canceling or postponing provisions in Mr. Bush's tax cut that have not yet taken effect, including the complete repeal of the estate tax in 2010.
But when asked specifically by Representative Ken Bentsen, Democrat of Texas, whether he would support delaying the scheduled tax cuts by applying the trigger concept to them, Mr. Greenspan said no.
"My own view is, I would prefer not," Mr. Greenspan said.
Mr. Greenspan, who normally couches his views on tax and spending issues in economic terms, cited politics as one justification for his stance, noting that there would be "resistance from a significant majority of the Congress."
He contended that provisions accounting for two-thirds of the tax cut's total value have already taken effect, an interpretation that other economists might dispute. And he said canceling or delaying the provisions not yet phased in would be disruptive to taxpayers who were counting on them in advance.
When asked by Mr. Bentsen how he would square his warnings about higher interest rates and slower economic growth caused by budget deficits with his unwillingness to rethink the tax cut, Mr. Greenspan said he did not "particularly wish to focus on any specific part of the budget."
Even when upset with him, Democrats still treat Mr. Greenspan with considerable deference. But their frustration with him today was thinly veiled. Representative James P. Moran, Democrat of Virginia, suggested that Mr. Greenspan had misled Congress by backing the tax cut last year even though the Fed chairman must have suspected that the $5.6 trillion, 10-year surplus projection used to justify it was built on unrealistic assumptions and an overvalued stock market.
"You knew that $5.6 trillion was not sustainable," Mr. Moran said. "You knew and warned us that the equity markets were hyperinflated, and any number of contributing factors made you more aware than most people that the money was not there."
Mr. Greenspan responded that the $5.6 trillion estimate from the Congressional Budget Office was "professionally as good as you could do."
For their part, Republicans did not have to work hard to tease from Mr. Greenspan support for their view that the key to restoring the budget to balance is holding down the growth of government spending.
When asked by Representative Mac Thornberry, Republican of Texas, if it would be positive for the economy for spending growth to remain "relatively restrained," Mr. Greenspan replied, "It would be positive."
Asked about consideration within the administration for a package of tax cuts intended to help investors by reducing taxation of dividends and cutting capital gains taxes, Mr. Greenspan said the package would have positive economic effects in the long run, though he said it would have to fit within a long-term budget plan that dealt with the deficit.
Mr. Greenspan sided with Democrats on some issues. He said he believed that large budget deficits ultimately push up long-term interest rates, the central point Democrats make in arguing against big tax cuts. And he said there was no reliable way to estimate how much economic growth is created by tax cuts, undercutting attempts by Republicans to adopt budget projections that assume that tax cuts pay for themselves.
Posted by DeLong at September 12, 2002 09:21 PM | TrackbackI like we're suffering from insufficient demand, but Greenspan favors reducing the budget deficit by cutting spending, which would reduce demand.
Posted by: Jason McCullough on September 12, 2002 11:22 PMInsufficient demand, I don't think I know what that is.
But decoherence that sounds interesting. And following close behind Lorenz attractors and Bose Einstein concentrate in last weeks blog.
Will we be hearing soon about self-organising criticality, and second order phase transitions, or - god help us - social insects and emergence?
Come on Brad, out of the closet, you're taking a closer look at what modern physics might have to offer that can help us understand what the f*** is going on.
Don't tell us that economics is about to finaly enter the 21st century. What was it the bard said about the beast sloching into Bethlehem finally to be born.
On Greenspan, we have an old British saying, as you make your bed, so shall you lie. (Or to quote another bard, it ain't easy babe, it ain't easy. Human all too human).
Posted by: Edward Hugh on September 13, 2002 12:13 AMI only had a chance to glance at some of his sound-bites, so I fought off my desire to laugh out loud and say "Does that even make sense to you?" I was hoping it was just me being a crank, but now you're making me nervous. Emperor Alan, call your tailor.
Regards,
Posted by: Tom on September 13, 2002 03:41 AMI like OMB Director Mitch Daniels comment on NPR that the budget deficit was due to the tanking stock market. It seems self-evident that if you reduce taxes by X dollars then revenues would decrease(atleastin the short term) by X dollars.
"Fiscal discipline" is not necessarily a call to ratchet up the size of the State by raising taxes.
Arguably, that would be the last thing to impose discipline on a political process.
The grotesque larding of this cycle's spending bills, highlighted by the farm subsidies inexplicably supported by both NEW YORK senators, should be the primary focus.
You don't discipline a child by giving him more toys and a bigger playpen.
The crucial question is: is there a role for countercyclical fiscal policy in the 21st century?
Bush says "yes" (the legitimation for the tax cuts), economists like Samuelson say "no" (states in the 1998 ed. of his "Economics").
And which role do deficits play? Is the crowding out effect stronger or is the substitution effect of tax cuts, lowering wage costs, stronger?
I would be grateful, if Mr. Greenspan could answer this question. Perhaps this could lead to a "path-integration" (*g).
Best regards,
Mu-Jeung Yang
Oddly enough, Alan DOES cohere (now that is a lovely word, cohere...)
Consider the following:
Mr Thompson: We want you to be Economic Dictator. We will implicitly obey any order that you give.
John Galt: Then start by abolishing all Income Taxes
Mr Thompson: Oh, no, we counldn't do that. How would we pay our Government employees?
John Galt: Fire your Government employees!
Mr Thompson: That's not the field of Economics. That is Politics. You can't have everything!
John Galt: See? I told you we had nothing to discuss.
I apologize for any misstatement in the above, I typed it up from memory.
Sir Alan is saying what Galt said above: cut taxes, get a small government and produce a surplus by getting government out of all economic activity.
We may think the man is idealistic, but he does cohere.
Posted by: Suresh Krishnamoorthy on September 13, 2002 06:36 AMSo much for Alan Greenspan as a friend to those in need of social security and medicare.
Greenspan's support of the Republican tax cut was never a mistake, the idea is to limit government by limiting revenue. This is Ayn Rand gibberish, and we will be paying a high price for some time for needlessly cutting the taxes of the rich. Thanks Alan.
Posted by: on September 13, 2002 10:19 AMBut when asked specifically by Representative Ken Bentsen, Democrat of Texas, whether he would support delaying the scheduled tax cuts by applying the trigger concept to them, Mr. Greenspan said no.
"My own view is, I would prefer not," Mr. Greenspan said.
Mr. Greenspan, who normally couches his views on tax and spending issues in economic terms, cited politics as one justification for his stance, noting that there would be "resistance from a significant majority of the Congress."
It seems that Mr. Greenspan's response would be a non sequitur unless he counts himself as a part of the resistance (though, he's not a member of Congress, either). What could he have meant?
Posted by: Mike L on September 13, 2002 11:20 AMAlan Greenspan is saying the tax cut made sure that Congress could not raise spending without generating a deficit.
Then we have a tax cut for the rich, a limit on government spending if we are to avoid forever increasing deficits, and in a few years even limits on social security and medicare.
The point: limit the role of government. Good grief....
Posted by: on September 13, 2002 12:15 PMGreenspan's most current testimony - as Brad implies - is of such a curiously strange quality that my reaction to it was: it's definitely time for Greenspan to go.
It was fun while it lasted.
Posted by: howard on September 13, 2002 12:31 PMEssentially Alan Greenspan has determined that the Fed chief can intervene in the shaping of fiscal policy. Fine. We should have known this when Greenspan warned of the danger of a future surplus. The warning was absurd in light of the needs of an aging population and our long history with deficits, and we should ask more carefully after the reasoning of the Fed chief.
Posted by: on September 13, 2002 12:34 PMWe may think the man is idealistic, but he does cohere.
Indeed.
But for some, these ideas are so outside any frame of reference, they are deemed incoherent by defintion.
Posted by: George Zachar on September 13, 2002 01:34 PMGreenspan's testimony sadly makes it likely that a slow growth economy is in the offing. So much for the lauding of a productivity growth spurt by the Fed chief. If we settle for economic growth of 2 or 3 percent, we are assuring an unemployment rate far higher than necessary.
Where is all the lauding of the new economy? We do indeed have a new economy. Why are we to settle for growth limits that take us back to the 1980's?
Posted by: Anne on September 13, 2002 02:14 PMThis metaphor is off; from the printed testimony, it seems perfectly clear that Greenspan remains in a superposition of states, and has not yet reached the act of self-observation which might collapse the waveform.
Posted by: Daniel Davies on September 16, 2002 09:52 AM