October 09, 2002
Nobel Prize-Winner Daniel Kahnemann

Lance Knobel talks about a lunch he once moderated starring brand-new Economics Nobel Prize-winner Daniel Kahnemann:


The Irrational: In all modesty, I moderated one of the best sessions in Davos so far at lunchtime today. Nothing to do with me. The speaker, Princeton psychology professor Daniel Kahneman, was speaking about the latest findings in behavioural finance. That's the emerging study of non-rational and imperfect behaviour in markets. I'll throw out some of Kahneman's insights. It's apparently well established now that the cost of "having an idea" (something that motivates you to buy or sell) is 3.5%. In other words, it doesn't pay -- on average -- to have ideas.

I also thought his findings on people's attitudes towards risk. According to Kahneman, "People take risks because they don't know the risks they are taking." What made it such a successful session was the passion, humour and range of a true expert, and a steady stream of interesting, deep questions from a knowledgeable group of participants.

Posted by DeLong at October 09, 2002 01:58 PM | Trackback

Email this entry
Email a link to this entry to:


Your email address:


Message (optional):


Comments

It seems to me about time we start studying seriously how people make their economic decisions (and ackowledging people who do so) rather than how we think they should make these (although having a rational benchmark is a prerequisite, so not all is lost ;-))

Posted by: Jean-Philippe Stijns on October 10, 2002 09:41 AM

Second thoughts: I must admit there is something frightening in starting to postulate that individuals make irrational decisions. It seems like a potencial recepe for fascism (although I imply by no means that this is what these researchers are looking for!)

In the case of externalities, what we're arguing is that institutions should be amended to bring in line private (rational) returns with social returns. In the case of irrationality on behalf of market participants, there is the risk of some calling for taking the decisions out of the hands of individuals alltogether.

However, we shouldn't be more afraid of that than of any other behavorial science, like psychology etc. Except that economic freedom is dear to us for good reasons...

Posted by: Jean-Philippe Stijns on October 11, 2002 09:34 AM
Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember info?