I cannot call John S. Irons "really smart" because he has not yet managed to use the word "ergodic" in a substantive sentence on his weblog.
Nevertheless, he gives good advice in telling everybody to study the St. Louis Fed's National Economic Trends.
Posted by DeLong at October 18, 2002 01:51 PM | TrackbackArgMax Economics Blog :: John S. Irons :: National Economic Trends
Interested in the US economy?
Bookmark National Economic Trends. Read this publication and all graphs at least once a month - it's good for you.
I have taken away two things from scanning over the most recent St. Louis Fed report:
* unemployment is hard to detect because a lot of people are taking part-time (low paying) jobs which takes them out of survey numbers. the number of (non-agr) hours worked is still dipping though, and that's an important non-binary indicator of the extent of unemployment. part-time jobs are going to keep people off poverty (for a while) but won't help much with anemic demand.
* disinflation has already taken hold in the industrial sector.
I think the next key thing to watch is the effect of Lula's landslide election in Brazil on financial markets.
Posted by: Jean-Philippe Stijns on October 20, 2002 02:10 PM