From the well-worth-reading strategypage:
For the last two days, hundreds of troops and Israeli settlers fought near Nablus as the army attempted to dismantle the first of 24 illegal settler outposts in Palestinian territory. There were no deaths, although 24 troops and settlers were injured.
I had expected Sharon to back down on settler eviction once the settlers began to fight.
Posted by DeLong at October 21, 2002 01:25 PM | TrackbackStrategypage | October 21, 2002
ISRAEL: Intifada Losing Support
October 21, 2002; Historians have often wondered where the "Ten Lost
Tribes of Israel" ended up after they were carried away by Assyrian
conquerors 2,750 years ago. Some scholars claim to have found groups in
isolated areas of Asia (as far away as China and India) which maintain
some old Jewish traditions. Some scoff at the idea, saying that these
groups have adopted Jewish customs only in the last twenty years in order
to get a free trip to Israel, along with a better house and a real job.
And the Israeli government is starting to accept at least some of these
groups, and is studying and testing others. A few hundred from India have
been resettled in Israel, and a million more could follow from India and
Central Asia. The Israelis want to use immigrants to replace the
Palestinians who cross the Green Line to work in Israel, and to bolster
their numbers against the faster growing Palestinian population.--Stephen
V Cole
October 20, 2002; The army is spending $55 million over the next two years
to build outposts and walls around the Gaza strip and the Palestinian town
of Rafah. This continues the policy of increasing permanent bases and
protective structures around places that feature persistent terrorist
activity.
For the last two days, hundreds of troops and Israeli settlers fought near
Nablus as the army attempted to dismantle the first of 24 illegal settler
outposts in Palestinian territory. There were no deaths, although 24
troops and settlers were injured.
October 19, 2002; The death toll in two years of strife has passed 2,900
(74 percent Palestinian). This does not include nearly a thousand
Palestinians killed by Palestinians, either as official (or vigilante)
execution of collaborators (real or suspected) or in fighting between
factions. While deaths of Israelis have increased in the past year, that
trend has been reversed. The Israelis have expanded their informer network
among the Palestinians, which has resulted in 80 percent or more of
terrorist attacks being detected and stopped. Many of the informers serve
for money or better treatment (travel passes, business permits) from the
government. But other do so because they oppose the use of terror. One
reason the Israelis have attacked the Palestinian security forces (and
their headquarters) is that these organizations have been most active in
trying to detect informers and agents working for Israel.
October 18, 2002; Several hundred army reservists signed a petition
demanding that illegal Israeli settler outposts in Palestinian territory
be dismantled. The troops are forced to risk their lives protecting these
outposts, which are often in difficult to defend positions. The settlers
occupy the outposts (in unused land between Palestinian villages) to stake
a claim on more territory.
October 16, 2002; Palestinians are increasingly disenchanted with the two
year old "Intifada" campaign against Israel. The use of terror against
Israeli civilians has backfired, with Palestinians losing foreign support
and Israeli defensive measures killing many more Palestinians. More and
more prominent Palestinians are speaking out against the Intifada. But the
Islamic radicals among Palestinians (particularly Hamas) are dedicated to
destruction of Israel. The radicals will continue fighting until wiped out
and the Israelis are determined to do that if that's what's required to
stop terrorist attacks on Israelis.
October 15, 2002; Israel fears that Hizbollah, in Lebanon, will use their
thousands of rockets to attack Israel if there is an attack on Iraq. This
could trigger an Israeli invasion of Lebanon to destroy Hizbollah bases in
southern and central Lebanon.
I aggree: it's very good news. Almost too good to be true since it's never been Sharon's intention to dismentle any real settlements. Please keep in mind that the few "settlements" that are being dismantled are not even inhabited! And look at the violence of the opposition... so much for claims that Arabs have a genetic monopoly on brutality in Palestine...
Still, let's hope this is the (unlikely) beginning of a virtous cyle in the Middle East.
Posted by: Jean-Philippe Stijns on October 21, 2002 02:41 PMTo complete the picture, one needs to mention that there is growing and serious talk among Palestinian intelectuals (yes, there is such thing!) to abandon all forms of violence and switch to stricly political tactics, not (yet) so much on moral but, rather, strategic grounds.
It's not so much that Palestinians are reacting to Sharon's own "counter-violence" (although to some extent, they are) than Palestinians being worried about the loss of the moral high ground in the international arena, I think. It may just be self propaganda aimed at denying a military defeat, and yet it does not really matter so long as the right set of strategies are adopted.
How credible and lasting can this be expected? I think it depends in large part on the reception on behalf of the Israelis (and the American public and Washington elites...) I would venture to argue that the dismantling of semi-settlements is a reaction to this new state of affairs (and the corresponding recent pressure from Washington).
I remain skeptical Sharon and his supporters will truly help with a virtuous cycle that unavoidably will lead to the retrocession of some holy occupied lands... Let's hope Sharon's political ambitions and necessities will outbalance his ideological bias; and let's hope the same for the most radical elements gravitating around Arafat.
Posted by: Jean-Philippe Stijns on October 21, 2002 03:49 PMI'm afraid it's hard for me to imagine a political calculus which would make Sharon stand up to the settler interests (at least not to an extent which would be seen as promising by even the most accomodation-minded Palestinian). His coalition still depends on religious parties which think of Hebron as more important than Tel Aviv.
Posted by: Jeffrey Kramer on October 22, 2002 05:27 PMYou write "The use of terror against Israeli civilians has backfired, with Palestinians losing foreign support and Israeli defensive measures killing many more Palestinians."
But to most of the Palestinians those results aren't so material anyway; they figure the US has made its mind up against them anyway out of prejudice, and the rest of the world couldn't do anything effective in the face of those. As for "killing many more Palestinians", on the one hand they are considering that in terms of attrition, and on the other they are looking at MARGINAL deaths; and they were well aware that they faced death by slow attrition under the preferred Israeli methods of the peace of the bulldozer, so while the pace has deteriorated the ratios have improved. So Palestinians generally do not regard this as failure but as a foreseeable least worst outcome - since Israel has made the alternative even worse.
Posted by: P.M.Lawrence on October 22, 2002 10:28 PM“...since Israel has made the alternative even worse.”
Please stop blaming Israel for the self destructive behavior of the Palestinians. These people have primarily only themselves to blame for their predicament. The real question is this: when will the Palestinians look to an Ataturk as their role model? Radical Islamism is racist, sexist, intolerant, envious, and self-pitying. I find it hysterical that so many Liberals perceive these disgusting folks as victims. They do this only because their skin color is of a darker complexion. A white red neck hillbilly would not be cut this sort of slack.
I also have utter contempt for the Nazi cultural values of my German forefathers. We should not hesitate to criticize evil because of the scum bag’s race.
Posted by: David Thomson on October 27, 2002 08:48 AM