January 21, 2003
Rick Hertzberg Bangs His Head Against the Wall

Rick Hertzberg bangs his head against the wall at the Bush Administration's sales pitch for its non-stimulus package. He quotes the Financial Times--<sarcasm>that left-wing partisan Democratic newspaper</sarcasm>--calling the Administration's claims "...obviously bogus..." and "...dishonest and... designed to prevent a proper discussion of the long-term fiscal costs and benefits..."


The New Yorker: The Talk of the Town: ..."These tax reductions will bring real and immediate benefits to middle-income Americans," Bush said in Chicago. "Ninety-two million Americans will keep an average of $1,083 more of their own money." The first of these claims, as the Financial Times editorialized the day after the speech, is "obviously bogus." The second is true, but only in the sense that it is also true that if Bill Gates happened to drop by a homeless shelter where a couple of nuns were serving soup to sixty down-and-outers dressed in rags, the average person in the room would have a net worth of a billion dollars. Average, yes; typical, no. A typical taxpayer?one right smack in the middle of the income range?will get a couple of hundred dollars. And a worker in the bottom twenty per cent will get next to nothing?at most, a dime or a quarter a week.

The Bloomberg financial news service performed the useful exercise of calculating what this latest Bush package would deliver to Bush himself. If his income this year is unchanged, he could get a windfall of as much as $44,500. Not bad?more, in fact, than the total income, before taxes, of a substantial majority of American families. Dick Cheney does even better. His tax break comes to $327,000?more than the before-tax income of ninety-eight per cent of his fellow-citizens. At the Presidential and Vice-Presidential level, it seems, there is no conflict of interest between public policy and private gain. The two are in perfect harmony.

The question naturally arises: Have these people no shame? Well, yes, they have a little. They don't say outright that they regard giving money to the rich as a worthy end in itself. They say that their goal is to create jobs. That's what Bush said in his speech, not once but two dozen times. There are better ways to do this. The various Democratic proposals for smaller, faster, temporary tax cuts aimed at people who actually need money would be one such way. A payroll-tax holiday would be better still, because the payroll tax is a direct tax on jobs and therefore on job creation. Even better would be for the government to buy things that people need, that are social goods, and that markets cannot provide unassisted?things like schools, cops, and hospitals. To provide economic stimulus, after all, the money has to be spent; and the surest way to guarantee that it will be spent is to spend it.

The notion that the elimination of income tax on dividends has something to do with stimulus is, to quote the Financial Times again, "dishonest and seems to be designed to prevent a proper discussion of the long-term fiscal costs and benefits." The proposal makes sense only as part of the Administration's apparently iron determination to shift the tax burden downward.

Posted by DeLong at January 21, 2003 02:28 PM | Trackback

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I think Felix Rohatyn has suggested that if the government wants to boost stock prices it could just buy stocks.

Similarly, if it wants to "create jobs" it could just go out and hire people: you know, teachers, emergency workers, SEC staff, etc.

Posted by: Bernard Yomtov on January 21, 2003 02:57 PM

Jumping the track just a bit, is there any way for a layman to evaluate the majority consensus among economists on some of these issues? I've got someone citing a Washington Times editorial that there is no consensus that deficits cause higher interest rates, and I don't have any good way to refute it.

Posted by: J. Michael Neal on January 21, 2003 03:34 PM

Look at those Lucky Duckies (the WSJ strickes back). Some people really have no sense of shame.

Compassionate conservatism is so compassionate I wonder what a straight conservative President would propose instead. How about taxing unemployment? Got to incentivize those lazy coach potatoes...

Posted by: Jean-Philippe Stijns on January 21, 2003 03:47 PM

Exerpt from the above:

For instance, the folks at the Tax Foundation have looked at how two single moms--each earning $30,000 a year--would fare under the Bush plan. In 2003, the single mom with one child would pay income tax of $1,028; the mom with two children would not only pay no taxes, she'd also receive a check from the federal government, under the earned income tax credit, for $680. Compared to the single mom who must pay taxes, the single mom who does not is, well, a lucky ducky.

Don't these journalist know that raising children costs money, and the more children one has, the higher the cost, and that no society can survive without reproduction? Calling single mothers with two children lucky duckies is not merely immoral but simply insane. So, if I follow the WSJ, compared to tetraplegic people, hemiplegic people are, well, lucky duckies, only lucky duckies who can't swim and will thus starve.

Posted by: Jean-Philippe Stijns on January 21, 2003 04:50 PM

"How about taxing unemployment?"

Actually, unemployment benefits are already taxed. Illinois withholds Federal tax from it - I think it was 10%.

Posted by: Jon H on January 21, 2003 07:10 PM
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